PREVENTING TERRORISM
USING SOFT TECHNOLOGY
Identifying Risky People: identifying potential Terrorists using
information technology
interrogating / foreigners, apprehending illegal aliens, wiretaps,
monitoring phone conversations, monitoring financial
transactions, tracking hate-related groups
Identifying potential criminals using BIG DATA
http://jimadler.me/post/47374264398/the-not-ready-for-prime-time-classifier
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/how-big-data-could-help-identify-the-next-felon-or-blame-the-wrongguy.html
Identifying Risky Places: Airports, Public Transportation, Nuclear
Plants, Federal Office Buildings
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND THE
SURVEILLANCE STATE
Snowden revelations about the extent of domestic spying underscore the downside of
expanded government surveillance.
Crime Prevention using big data and new surveillance technology: Do the ends justify
the means?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ri0bCmlQ7c
THE EXCEPTIONAL CASE STUDY PROJECT
In the mid-1990s, the United States Secret Service
commissioned a study of 83 individuals known to
have attacked or approached with the intent of
attacking, a prominent public official or public
figure.
. Researchers concluded that attempts to develop
a useful profile of potential assassins were
essentially futile. Nonetheless, they identified a
key characteristic shared by all of its subjects,
namely, patterns of behaviors in the period
leading up to the assassination or assassination
attempt
CORE PRINCIPLES OF THREAT ASSESSMENT
First, , the study found that any attempts to develop a profile of targeted-violence
perpetrators would be neither specific enough to have any real discriminatory
value nor sensitive enough to effectively identify potential attackers who might
fall outside of the “typical profile”
CORE PRINCIPLE 2
Second, threat assessment draws a critical
distinction between making a threat and posing a
threat. The working premise is that the majority of
individuals who make specific threats of violence
never carry them out, and that many cases of
specific violence involve no explicit threats
before any action is taken.
Although 77% of the ECSP sample had
communicated their threat to someone before the
incident, threat assessment views articulated
threats as neither necessary nor sufficient for the
presence of an actual threat.
CORE PRINCIPLE 3
Third, acts of targeted violence are not spontaneous
events but are planned activities that typically
permeate the thoughts of potential perpetrators in
the period leading up to the violence.
Threat assessment views virtually all acts of
targeted violence as preceded by a chain of
behaviors, and,
There are a series of behavioral warning signs that
are amenable to identification and interdiction.
CORE PRINCIPLE 4
Fourth, threat assessment takes a dynamic view of
the etiology of targeted violence, holding that the
trajectory from idea to execution is highly
influenced by interactions between would-be
attackers, their views of and perceived relations
with the target, and a range of situational
variables.
Effective prevention and interdiction involves
evaluating interactions among potential
perpetrators, situational and opportunistic
contexts, and potential targets.
CAN WE ACCURATELY PROFILE LIKELY TERRORISTS?
Borum (2004) refutes the notion that there is a “terrorist personality” or any valid
psychological, demographic, or behavioral profile of a terrorist (see also Horgan,
2003).
The problem with this approach is its lack of both specificity (the ability to exclude
“false positives”) and sensitivity (the ability to avoid “false negatives”).
The identification and assessment of terrorism risk becomes far more dependent on
sophisticated systems of intelligence than assessment of most other forms of
targeted violence.
THREAT ASSESSMENT PROCESS
QUESTIONS TO ASK IN A THREAT ASSESSMENT
(Adapted from Borum et al., 1999)
What motivated the subject to make the statement or take the action that caused him or her to come to attention?
What has the subject communicated to someone else (target, law enforcement, family, friends, colleagues, associates) or written concerning his or her intentions?
Has the subject shown an interest in assassination, weapons, militant of radical ideas/groups, murderers and/or mass murderers, and workplace violence and stalking
incidents?
Is there evidence that the subject has engaged in menacing, harassing, and/or stalking-type behaviors? Has the subject engaged in attack-related behaviors such as:
Developing an attack idea or plan.
Approaching, visiting, and/or following the target.
Approaching, visiting, and/or following the target with a weapon.
Attempting to circumvent security.
Assaulting or attempting to assault a target.
Does the subject have a history of mental illness involving command hallucinations, delusional ideas, feelings of persecution, etc., with indications that the subject has
acted on those beliefs?
How organized is the subject? Does the subject have the ability to plan and execute a violent action against a target?
Is there evidence that the subject is experiencing desperation and/or despair? Has the subject experienced a recent personal loss and/or loss of status? Is the subject
now, or has the subject ever been, suicidal?
Is the subject's "story" consistent with his or her actions?
Are those who know the subject concerned that he or she might take action based on inappropriate ideas?
What factors in the subject's life and/or environment might increase or decrease the likelihood that the subject will attempt to attack a target (or targets)?
THREAT ASSESSMENT INSTRUMENTS
Design Issues: We are in the very early stages of development
Linking Assessment to Crime Prevention: the use of alert codes, resource allocation
Role of the Private Sector
Threat Assessment Case Studies
PREVENTING HOMICIDE
Do we need a Department of Pre Crime, as depicted
in Minority Report?
Can potential Homicide Offenders and Victims be
identified?
In London, the police have created a list of 100
likely homicide offenders, based on extensive
research on offender characteristics
In Philadelphia, U-Penn researchers found that 70%
of all homicide offenders AND victims were on
probation or parole at the time of the homicide
CAN SCHOOL VIOLENCE BE PREVENTED?
Bullying identification protocol
The use of mental health data by school officials;
and linking mental health, criminal record, and
gun purchase data bases; lessons learned from
Virginia Tech tragedy
The application of other forms of soft technology to
crime prevention (e.g. information sharing,
improved nationwide data collection protocol for
criminal histories, etc.)
CAN SEX CRIME BE PREVENTED?
Internet- based sex crime prevention strategies:
Stategy1: undercover police operations at federal, state, and local level involve
monitoring chat rooms, and establishing contact with individuals engaged in
solicitation.
Strategy 2: investigating sex trafficking on the web/dark web requires global
cooperation among law enforcement agencies worldwide.
Community-based sex crime prevention strategies:
Strategy 1: community education and public awareness campaigns targeting at risk
populations; new licensing requirements for coaches, volunteers.
Strategy 2: placing restrictions on known sex offenders, via occupational
disqualification, sex offender registration, and in many jurisdictions, location
restrictions
MYTHS AND FACTS ABOUT SEX OFFENDERS
Myth: "Most sexual assaults are committed by strangers."
Fact: Most sexual assaults are committed by someone known to the victim or the
victim's family, regardless of whether the victim is a child or an adult.
MYTH 2
Myth: "The majority of sexual offenders are caught, convicted, and in prison."
Fact: only a fraction of those who commit sexual assault are apprehended and
convicted for their crimes. Most
convicted sex offenders eventually are released to the community under probation or
parole supervision.
MYTH 3
Myth : "Most sex offenders re-offend. "
Fact: Reconviction data suggest that this is not the case. Further. Re-offense rates
vary among different types of sex offenders and are related to specific
characteristics of the offender and the offense.
MYTH 4
Myth: "Sexual offense rates are higher than ever and continue to climb."
Fact: Despite the increase in publicity about sexual crimes, the actual rate of
reported sexual assault has decreased in recent years, following the significant
downward trend in all forms of violence over the past twenty years
MYTH 5
Myth: "Children who are sexually assaulted will sexually assault others
when they grow up.“
Fact: Most sex offenders were not sexually assaulted as children and
most children who are sexually assaulted do not sexually assault
others
Among adult sex offenders, approximately 30% have been sexually
abused.
Some types of offenders, such as those who sexually offend against
young boys, have still higher rates of child sexual abuse in their
histories.
While past sexual victimization can increase the likelihood of sexually
aggressive behavior, most children who were sexually victimized
never perpetrate against others
OTHER MYTHS ABOUT SEX OFFENDERS
Myth: "All sex offenders are male.“
Myth: "Sex offenders commit sexual crimes because
they are under the influence of alcohol.“
Myth: "Youths do not commit sex offenses.“
Myth: "Juvenile sex offenders typically are victims of
child sexual abuse and grow up to be adult sex
offenders.“
Myth: "Treatment for sex offenders is ineffective."
CAN SEXUAL ASSAULT BE PREVENTED USING SOFT
TECHNOLOGY? EXAMPLES
Sex offender registration of all known sex offenders
Sex Offender registration does not prevent recidivism
(sex crime re-offense rates are very low( 5% for new
sex crimes),but it does make it more difficult for
offenders to hide from authorities
Estimates of the number of sex offenders who fail to
register vary from 25,000 to 50,000
Absconders: About 10% of the 800,000 registered sex
offenders are identified as absconders.
Hiding in plain sight? Identity Theft and Identity
Manipulation by Sex Offenders who fail to register or
abscond is not common.
SOFT TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS
Lifetime monitoring of known sex offenders is now
allowed by statute in over 30 states.
Electronic monitoring can be used to locate and
track sex offenders.
Sex Offenders can be restricted from certain
locations ( living, working, visiting) using new GPSbased location/mapping systems
Private Sector operation of electronic monitoring
raises cost and privatization concerns
SOFT TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS
Community Notification of High Risk Offenders
Issue: How do we define different levels of sex offender risk?
In Massachusetts, this decision is made by the Sex Offender Registry Board
Level 1, 2 , and 3 Sex offenders are identified by the board
National Sex Offender Registry link:
http://www.nsopw.gov/?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
SOFT TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS
Early identification of Adult Sex Offenders( as Juveniles) using various assessment
tools
Approximately 40% of all known sex offenders are juveniles
Currently, it is estimated that adolescents (ages 13 to 17) account for up to one-fifth
of all rapes and one half of all cases of child molestation committed each year.
The majority of juvenile sex offenders desist; a subgroup continue to commit sex
crimes as adults
Policy Problem: heterogeneity of sex offenders-We need to distinguish different types
of sex offenders when developing new strategies.
SOFT TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS
The use of “profiling” to prevent sex crime
Can we accurately predict who will become sex
offenders?
Is there a link between early victimization and later
offending in terms of sex crime?
Sex Offender prediction and the false positives
problem
SOFT TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS
Geographic Residency Restrictions
Map location of schools, parks, libraries
Use Mapping technology to create restriction zones
Use EM technology to monitor sex offender movements and
identify any violations
Real time response to violations via police, probation, parole,
and/or private sector
Problem: Sex offending rarely occurs in public places
Massachusetts Supreme Court Ruling in Sept. 2015:
http://wwlp.com/2015/09/04/sex-offender-residencyrestrictions-reprimanded-by-sjc/
SOFT TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION
Background Checks on all volunteers in schools, youth sports, and all jobs involving
minors.
Blanket restrictions on all convicted sex offenders
Issues to Consider:
Role of private sector in data management, cost of system integration
Examples:
Criminal Background Checks:http://www.lexisnexis.com/backgroundchecks/
Social Media Background Checks: http://gizmodo.com/5818774/this-is-a-socialmedia-background-check
RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS
RRASOR. The Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense
Recidivism (RRASOR) is brief and simple to use; it
consists of only four variables, all of which can be
easily retrieved from official records (Hanson, 1997).
These four factors – previous sexual offenses, extrafamilial victims, offender age under 25, and male
child victims – were based on research that
demonstrated a strong correlation between these
factors and the risk of re-offending.
RISK INSTRUMENTS
Static-99 considers a range of additional factors,
including sexual deviance, types of available
victims, persistence, and pattern of antisocial
behaviors (Hanson & Thornton, 1999; Hanson &
Thornton, 2000).
In a comparative review, the Static-99 added to the
predictive accuracy of the RRASOR in the
measurement of long-term risk potential (Hanson
& Thornton, 2000).
CRIME PREVENTION
Six Social-Engineering Strategies
Target Removal
Target Devaluation
Target Insulation
Offender Incapacitation
Offender Exclusion
Offense, Offender, and Target Identification
TARGET REMOVAL
The logic of prevention is clearest and most effective when a target is removed.
Something that is not there cannot be taken.
Some Examples:
The move toward a cashless society is one example of target removal.
Furniture built in to the wall cannot be stolen, and that bolted or welded to the floor
is unlikely to be.
A number of urban schools have created dress codes banning signs of gang
affiliation and expensive clothes and jewelry
TARGET DEVALUATION
The goal of target devaluation is to reduce or eliminate the value of a
potential target to anyone but authorized users.
Examples of devalued targets include products that self-destruct (some
car radios when tampered with) or that leave dear proof of theft
(exploding red dye packs that stain money taken in bank robberies).
There is a device that, via cellular phone, can remotely cut off the
engine of a stolen car. Another system, called Auto Avenger, is
triggered if the door is opened while the engine is running. If not
disengaged by a hidden switch, the engine will shut down after a few
minutes and the system tells the thief he has fifteen seconds to get
out or face a 50,000-volt shock.
TARGET INSULATION
Target insulation is probably among the oldest of
techniques for preventing violations
We can separate perimeter-maintaining strategies such
as fences, walls, moats, guards, and guard dogs from
more specific protections such as safes, chastity
belts, and placing goods in locked cases, chaining
them to immovable objects, and hiding them.
"Skywalks" linking downtown buildings shield their
occupants from life on the street.
OFFENDER INCAPACITATION
Offender incapacitation renders the potential offender harmless.
There are a variety of "immobilizers," "restrainers," and "containers" that seek to
prevent violations by weakening the potential offender's will or ability to commit
the offense.
psychosurgery for the violent, literal or chemical castration for sex offenders, and the
practice in some Middle Eastern countries of cutting off the hands of pickpockets.
Excessively aggressive behavior may be treated with tranquilizers. Drugs such as
Depo-Provera may be used to reduce the sex drive.
OFFENDER EXCLUSION
offender exclusion is the opposite of target
insulation. The offender, rather than the potential
target, is restricted.
In short, the goal of offender exclusion is to keep
potential offenders away from persons or
environments that may tempt them to commit
violations.
Capital punishment is the most extreme form of this
strategy.
EXAMPLES OF OFFENDER EXCLUSION
Other examples are exile, prison, curfews, and mobility restrictions (such as house
arrests or restraining orders).
At the group level, the creation of red light and drug districts away from residential
areas (as in Amsterdam and Zurich) is also based on the idea of exclusion.
Electronic location devices have recently made individual exclusion easier.
the ultimate exclusion may be genetic screening: persons believed to have a
biological predisposition to undesirable behavior simply never appear-they aren't
born. This screening could be voluntary or mandatory.
OFFENSE, OFFENDER, AND TARGET IDENTIFICATION
The goal of identification is to document the
occurrence of the violation and identify or even
trap the violator.
Various sensors and alarms fit here.
Another expanding area involves immobilization or
seizure strategies.
One system involves a super-glue that spreads onto
the floor after an explosion. Persons may be able
to get into a building, but the human flypaper
makes it impossible for them to get out.
OTHER EXAMPLES OF IDENTIFICATION STRATEGIES
A more general form of identification is the stigmatic mark of the
"scarlet letter," which gives evidence of past violations.
In some jurisdictions convicted drunk drivers must have special
identifying license plates or signs on their cars. The requirement that
individuals carry their records, or that these be checked, is
equivalent.
In some jurisdictions sex offenders are required to take out newspaper
ads accompanied by photographs with warnings that they have been
convicted of particular crimes; or their pictures may be prominently
displayed around playgrounds.
There is a proposal to electrically shock those under house arrest if
they attempt to leave and, if they succeed in leaving, to increase the
voltage the farther they stray