How Do You Know When Your Programs Really Work? Evaluation Essentials for Program Managers Session 3: DATA ANALYSIS Anita M. Baker, Ed.D. Evaluation Services Hartford Foundation for Public Giving, Nonprofit Support Program: BEC Bruner Foundation These materials are for the benefit of any 501c3 organization. They MAY be used in whole or in part provided that credit is given to the Bruner Foundation. They may NOT be sold or redistributed in whole or part for a profit. Copyright © by the Bruner Foundation 2012 * Please see supplementary materials for a sample agenda, activities and handouts Bruner Foundation Rochester, New York How to Use the Bruner Foundation Evaluation Essentials for Program Managers Powerpoint Slides The Evaluation Essentials for Program Managers slides were developed as part of a Bruner Foundation special project, by evaluation trainer Anita Baker – Evaluation Services, and jointly sponsored by the Hartford Foundation for Public Giving. They were tested initially with a single organization in Rochester, NY (Lifespan) as part of the Evaluation Support Project 2010. The materials were revised and re-tested with three nonprofit organizations as part of the Anchoring Evaluation project in 2011-12. The slides, intended for use in organizations that have already participated in comprehensive evaluation training, include key basic information about evaluation planning, data collection and analysis in three separate presentations. Organization officials or evaluation professionals working with nonprofit organization managers are encouraged to review the slides, modify order and add/remove content according to training needs. (Please note that the final session includes general information about analysis planning as well as analysis of both quantitative and qualitative data, and presentation of findings. Specific strategies related to data collection, i.e., analysis of survey data or interview data, and information about development of tables and graphs are included in the supplementary powerpoint presentation. Additional Materials To supplement these slides there are sample agendas, supporting materials for activities, and other handouts. There are “placeholder” slides with just a picture of the target with an arrow in the bullseye that signify places where activities can be undertaken. Be sure to move or eliminate these depending on the planned agenda.Other more detailed versions of the Evaluation Essentials materials area also available in Participatory Evaluation Essentials: An Updated Guide for Nonprofit Organizations and Their Evaluation Partners and the accompanying 6-session slide presentation. These materials are also available on the Bruner Foundation and Evaluation Services websites free of charge. Whether you are an organization leader or an evaluation professional working to assist nonprofit organization staff, we hope that the materials provided here will support your efforts. When you have finished using the Evaluation Essentials for Program Managers series have trainees take our survey. https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/EvalAnchoringSurvey Bruner Foundation Rochester, New York 2 What is Evaluation Anyway? Program Evaluation Thoughtful, systematic collection and analysis of information about activities, characteristics, and outcomes of programs, for use by specific people, to reduce uncertainties, inform decisions. i Review Participatory Evaluation Trained evaluation personnel and practicebased decision-makers coming together to learn about , design, conduct and use results of program evaluation. How are evaluation data collected? Interviews Surveys Observations Record Reviews ii Review All have limitations and benefits Require preparation on the front end: Instrument Development and testing Administration plan development Analysis plan development Evaluation Data Collection Options Qualitative Data Quantitative Data Record Review Interviews Conducting guided conversations with key people knowledgeable about a subject Focus Groups Facilitating a discussion about a particular issue/question among people who share common characteristics Surveys Administering a structured series of questions with discrete choices Observations Documenting visible manifestations of behavior or characteristics of settings iii Review Collecting and organizing data about a program or event and its participants from outside sources External Record Review Utilizing quantitative data that can be obtained from existing sources Surveys: Series of items with pre-determined response choices Can be completed by administrator or respondents Can be conducted “paper/pencil” phone, internet (e-survey) using alternative strategies USE SURVEYS TO: Study attitudes and perceptions Collect self-reported assessment of changes in response to program Collect program assessments Collect some behavioral reports Test knowledge Determine changes over time. Instruments are called – surveys, “evaluations,” questionnaires GRAND CLAIMS iv Review PRE POST Interviews: One-sided conversation with questions mostly predetermined, but open-ended. Respondent answers in own terms. Can be conducted in person on phone one-on-one, or groups USE INTERVIEWS TO: Study attitudes and perceptions Collect self-reported assessment of changes in response to program Collect program assessments Document program implementation Determine changes over time. Instruments are called – protocols, schedules or guides v Review Observations: Observations are conducted to view and hear actual program activities. Users of reports will know what and how events occur. Can be focused on programs overall participants pre-selected features USE OBSERVATIONS TO: Document program implementation Witness levels of skill/ability, program practices, behaviors Determine changes over time. Instruments are called – protocols, guides, checklists vi Review Record Reviews: Accessing existing internal information, or information collected for other purposes. Can be focused on USE REC REVIEW TO: Collect some behavioral reports Conduct tests, collect test results Verify self-reported data Determine changes over time own records records of other orgs adding questions to existing docs Instruments are called – protocols vii Review What happens after data are collected? 1. Data are analyzed, results are summarized. 2. Findings must be converted into a format that can be shared with others. 3. Action steps should be developed from findings. “Now that we know _____ we will do _____.” viii Review Important Data-Related Terms Data can exist in a variety of forms Records: Numbers or text on pieces of paper Digital/computer: Bits and bytes stored electronically Memory: Perceptions, observations or facts stored in a person’s mind Qualitative, Quantitative Primary v. Secondary Data Variables (Items) Unit of Analysis Duplicated v. Unduplicated Unit Record (Client-level) v. Aggregated 1 Plan your Analysis in Advance! • What procedures will be conducted with each set of data and who will do them? • How will data be coded and recoded? • How will data be disaggregated (i.e. “broken out for example by participant characteristics, or time)? • How will missing data be handled? • What analytical strategies or calculations will be performed (e.g., frequencies, cross-tabs)? • How will comparisons will be made? • Whether/which statistical testing is needed? 2 Analysis Plan Specifics, You Must Decide . . . What procedures will be conducted with each set of data and who will do them. How data will be grouped or partitioned. What How types of codes will be applied to the data. comparisons will be made. • Data to other project data (within group) • Data to expectations • Data to data from other sources (across groups) There is no single process! 3 Analyzing (Quantitative) Data: A Few Important Terms* • Case: individual record (e.g., 1 participant, 1 day, 1 activity) • Demographics: descriptive characteristics (e.g., gender) • Disaggregate: to separate or group information (e.g., to look at data for males separately from females) – conducting crosstabs is a strategy for disaggregating data. • Duplicated/Unduplicated (e.g., counting # of individuals at events – dup; or counting number of events for each individual ) • Partition(v): another term that means disaggregate. • Unit of Analysis: the major entity of the analysis – i.e., the what or the whom is being studied (e.g., participants, groups, activities) • Unit Record (i.e., client level) v. Aggregate (i.e., group level) • Variable: something that changes (e.g., number of hours of attendance) *common usage 4 Quantitative Data Analysis: Basic Steps 1. Organize and arrange data (number cases as needed). 2. Scan data visually. Code data per analysis plan. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 5 Enter and verify data. Determine basic descriptive statistics. Recode data as needed (including missing data). Develop created variables. Re-calculate basic descriptive statistics. Conduct other analyses per plan Quantitative Data Analysis Strategies Important Things to Look at or Summarize Frequencies: How often a response or status occurs. Total and Valid Percentages: Frequency/total *100 Measures of Central Tendency: Mean, Median, (Modes) Distribution: Minimum, Maximum, Groups (*iles) Cross-Tabulations: Relationship between two or more variables (also called contingency analyses, can include significance tests such as chi-square analyses) Useful, 2nd Level Procedures Means testing (ANOVA, t-Tests) Correlations Regression Analyses 6 Analyzing Quantitative Data Important Things to Look at or Summarize What to Do What That Means Calculate Frequencies Count how many there are of something. Count how often something (e.g., a response) occurs. Calculate Total and/or Valid Percentages Frequency/total *100 Example Questions You Could Answer How many participants were in each group? What were the demographics of participants? How many answered “Yes” to Question 2? What proportion of participants met intensity targets? What proportion of all those who answered question 2, said “Yes.” 7 Analyzing Quantitative Data Important Things to Look at or Summarize Example Questions You Could Answer What to Do What That Means Determine Central Tendencies Calculate the average (mean), or identify the median (middle) or mode (most common value). What is the average number of hours participants attend? Avg. = What is the most common numbers of days attended in a week? (mode) Sum of Values Total Number of Values Total # of hours Total # of people with hours 8 Analyzing Quantitative Data Important Things to Look at or Summarize What to do What That Means Determine Distributions Determine the minimum value, the maximum, and/or how the data are grouped (e.g, high, medium, or low values, quartiles, percentiles, etc.). Cross-Tabulations (pivot tables are crosstabs) 9 Relationship between 2 or more variables (also called contingency analyses, can include significance tests such as chi-square analyses) Example Questions You Could Answer What was the least amount of attendance for the group? What was the most? How many participants fall into low, medium, and high intensity groups? Are there relationships between participant characteristics and outcome changes? Coding and Data Entry 1. Create codebook(s) as needed (identify codes and affix them to instrument copies). 2. Create electronic database when possible (use Excel, SPSS, SAS). 3. ID/create unique identifiers for cases and affix or enter as needed. 4. Enter or extract data as needed (do not recode as data are entered). 5. Make (electronic or paper) copies of your data. 10 Analysis of Qualitative Data Analytical Strategies Similar For Qualitative and Quantitative Data Consider how you plan to use findings, -- who is the audience? what format works best? Plan your analysis in advance. • • • • How does the data fit within overall evaluation plan, other data? How will findings fit in the overall report plan? How will you code, display and draw conclusions about data? How will you validate/verify and adjust your findings? Be careful interpreting data! 11 Steps to Take When Analyzing Qualitative Data 2. Segment or partition data (i.e., divide it into meaningful analytical units) Reduce data Code data Process is Iterative Compare data 3. Organize, summarize and display data 4. Draw conclusions, verify/validate results 5. Revise summaries and displays accordingly 1. 12 Coding Qualitative Data 1. A priori or deductive codes: predetermined categories based on accepted theory or program knowledge 2. Inductive: based on raw data (not predetermined) 3. Hierarchical: larger categories with subcategories in each You can combine inductive and deductive within a hierarchical coding scheme 13 Coding Strategies and Reminders 1. Keep a master list of codes Distinguish a priori and inductive codes Re-apply codes to all segments 2. Use multiple codes, but keep coding schemes as simple as possible 3. Test out sample entries to identify potential problems before finalizing code selections 4. Check for inter/intra coder reliability (consistency) 14 Coding is not exact (expect differences) Co-occurring codes (more than one applies) Face-sheet codes (descriptors) Enumeration A strategy for organizing, summarizing, and displaying qualitative data Quantify frequency of codes,* or types Use counts to define results (e.g., most responses were positive; all responses fell into 4 categories – the category most exemplified was __________). * e.g., none, some, a lot, as a percentage 15 Negative Findings 16 Explain the results and what they mean, and why they occurred if possible Clarify how negative Don’t blame it on bad evaluation Clarify next course of action Clarify what did work and for whom Avoid milquetoast approach Don’t be reluctant to report if possible Inaccurate Findings 17 Determine cause Disseminate errata if necessary or recall report Communicate with stakeholders why results will not be usable Inconclusive Findings 18 Present in an unbiased fashion Indicate conclusions can not be drawn Develop a plan to correct evaluation or program problems if necessary Positive Findings 19 Explain the results and what they mean, and why they occurred if possible Clarify how positive, who it worked for and how Don’t distrust positive results (but be careful to avoid biased designs) Report positive results and celebrate accomplishments Clarify next course of action Resist making assumptions about the next iteration Design careful follow-up Evaluation Reporting: Initial Steps 1. Clearly identify your audience. Staff? Funders? Board? Participants? Multiple 2. Determine what Presentation Strategies work best. PowerPoint Newsletter Fact sheet Oral presentation Visual displays Video Storytelling Press releases Report full report, executive summary, stakeholder-specific report? 20 Introduction Components of A Strong Program Evaluation Report Methods Findings Conclusions 21 Description of the subject program. Clear statement about the evaluation questions and the purpose of the evaluation. Description of actual data collection methods Summary of key findings (including tables, graphs, vignettes, quotes, etc.) Discussion or explanation of the meaning and importance of key findings Suggested Action Steps Next Steps (for the program and the evaluation) Issues for Further Consideration (loose ends) Think About Communication Strategies Are there natural opportunities for sharing (preliminary) findings with stakeholders? • At a special convening • At regular or pre-planned meetings • During regular work interactions (e.g., clinical supervision, staff meetings, board meetings) • Via informal discussions 22 Additional Reporting Tips Convert findings to shareable form(s). Think about internal and external reporting. Plan for multiple reports. Before you start writing, be sure to develop an outline and pass it by some stakeholders. If you’re commissioning an evaluation report, ask to see a report outline in advance. Review the evaluation reports of others carefully for the important components and meaningfulness. 23 Before You Present Your Findings, Answer These Questions Do your findings accurately reflect the data you collected? How might your interpretation be inaccurate? Are there any unintended consequences that might result from sharing these findings? Are there any missing voices you overlooked? 24 Sharing Findings: ‘ate’ Steps 1. Deliberate – Spend time with people close to the evaluation work and confirm the findings. You must convince yourself (ves) first. 2. Anticipate – Determine how you want to use the findings and what value might be derived from the findings for the program/process. 3. Investigate – Once you have findings, test them with key stakeholders. They will shed light on perceived value of the findings. 4. Calibrate – Develop a result sharing mechanism that can convey the message you want to convey to your chosen audience. 5. Illuminate – Remove any unnecessary details and highlight the ‘key findings’. 6. Substantiate – Take a step away from the work and come back to it later with fresh eyes. Ask yourself, “Do the findings still resonate?” 7. Annotate – Proofread the final draft. Misteaks can distract from results. 8. Communicate – Share the results! 25