Product Planning & Processes
Saturday 22 March, 2014
Dublin Institute of Technology
Post-Graduate Diploma in
Product Management
1
Schedule
2
Innovation / Uncertainty Framework
Portfolio of projects
An intentional mix of investments
Process suitability
3
Portfolio of Projects
Applies to a single product*
For each customer problem…
How much uncertainty is there…
…About the market viability of a solution approach?
…About your team’s ability to implement?
*You can use this approach for any portfolio of investments
4
Understand Investments vs. Risk
5
Strategy Aligns w/ Risk Profile
6
2011 Ecommerce Roadmap (v1)
7
2011 Ecommerce Roadmap (v2)
8
Some of Your Projects
From each table…
Pick a “high” priority item in each of your current
products
Where is it
in the layout?
What can we do
to reduce risk?
9
Will any Process Work?
10
Will any Process Work?
11
The Iron Triangle
Fixed Scope +
Fixed Schedule +
Fixed Resources =
Sacrificed Quality
You Can Have…
…Cheap
…Fast
…Good
Pick Two
12
Timeboxes & Units of Work
Definition:
Timebox =
Cost x Time = Capacity
Definition:
Unit of Work =
Function + Quality
13
It Always Happens
14
What Actions Can We Take?
15
Options (in Theory)
Delay the Release / Sprint
Add People to the Team
16
Options (in Theory)
Sacrifice Quality
Delay Less-Important Stuff
17
Options (In Practice)
18
Options (In Practice): Delay for Some
19
Options (In Practice): Satisficing
20
Process
21
Process
What’s good about it?
What’s bad about it?
Hint: reason it exists
Hint: unintended consequences
22
Process is Good
Pros
Prevents the most egregious
mistakes
Enables you to empower
lower-skilled people
Tells you what to do next
Peppered with good ideas
23
Process is Bad
Cons
Slows things down
Adds cost
Constrains innovative teams
Prevents you from changing
“the plan”*
Full of bad ideas
24
Big Corp™ Big Processes
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Planning
Project Definition
Engineering
Implementation
Production
Audit
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Vision & Objectives
Prioritization
Sizing
Portfolio Funding
Program Management
a) Functional
Requirements
b) Development
c) Acceptance &
Deployment
25
Rational Unified Process (RUP)
“Given today’s sophisticated software systems, it is
not possible to sequentially first define the entire
problem, design the entire solution, build the
software and then test the product at the end.
An iterative approach is required that allows an
increasing understanding of the problem through
successive refinements, and to incrementally grow
an effective solution over multiple iterations.”
26
Rational Unified Process
(RUP for System Z)
Inception
Generate Idea
Define Requirements
Proof of Concept
Elaboration
Refine Requirements
Define Architecture
Design, Create, & Test
Construction
Refine Requirements
Design, Create, & Test
Beta Release
Transition
Create & Test
Run Acceptance Tests
Generally Available (GA) Release
27
Waterfall View
28
Same Thing, Different View
What are the problems with this process?
29
Same Thing, Different View
This is better.
30
Same Thing, Different View
If this is better, why doesn’t everyone do it?
31
Big Corp ™ Big Processes
1. Resource Planning &
Chartering
2. Envisioning
3. Planning
4. Development
5. Stabilization
32
SDLC Overview
33
Business Stakeholder View
34
Product Management View
35
Development View
36
QA Team View
37
Big Picture Process
Even at “agile” companies, the big picture
process is still “waterfall” and will be for quite a
while.
*excluding startups which are willing (and able)
to pivot, I don’t know of a business which
achieves business agility
38
Strategy Drives (Product) Vision
39
Vision Drives a Business Case
40
Vision Initiates Requirements Work
41
And a Revision of the Business Case
42
Business View of Project Initiation
43
New Team Works on the Details
44
“Design” is a Matter of Perspective
(a slight segue)
45
Development
& QA
46
Coffee (assuming we’re still on time)
47
Big Process
Example
If this is the process…
Where do errors get
introduced into the
system?
Each Table
48
Big Process
Example
A real example
from a processassessment &
recommendation
project
Each “e” is a place
where errors were
being introduced
into their products
49
Waterfall
Example
Where in the
process do we (or
can we) catch the
errors that are
introduced?
50
You are reading ahead
And that’s good.
There’s a really good chance
that the exercise on the next
three slides won’t be in the
session. I think there may
be room to improve it, but
not before the deadline for
getting the materials
uploaded prior to the class.
Apologies if this caused any
angst or dismay .
51
Waterfall
Example
If this is the process…
And we know it has
issues…
Which parts would you
“fix” first?
1. 20/20 game
2. Dot voting
52
Waterfall 20/20 [Each table]
Which parts of the process would you “fix” ?
1. Identify steps worth fixing, one per stickynote (10m)
2. Put the steps in order from most to least
important to fix (5m)
53
Waterfall Dot-Voting
1. Create combined list from all tables (10m)
2. Everyone gets 5 votes to spend on “what to
fix first”
1. If you’re really passionate about one item, place
all 5 votes on that item
2. Or spread your votes across up to 5 items
54
Scrum Sprint Process Goal
55
Scrum Sprint Process Mechanics
56
Inside a Scrum Sprint
57
Inside a Scrum Sprint
58
Inside a Scrum Sprint
59
Inside a Scrum Sprint
60
Inside a Scrum Sprint
61
Inside a Scrum Sprint
62
Inside a Scrum Sprint
63
A Good Definition of “Done Done”
64
Kanban for Product Managers
(Thanks, Claudio!)
65
Lunch
66
Estimating a Single Task
PERT is the best form for
estimating a task
Best Case
Most Likely
Worst Case
Estimating Multiple Tasks
You Can Combine PERT
Estimates
Estimates Combine to
Reduce Uncertainty
Only Deals with “Right
Now”
Estimating Over Time
Predicting the future is
Harder
Uncertainty Introduced
Change in Resources
Change in Strategy
Change in Priorities
3 Types of Tasks
Well Defined
Ill-Defined
Undefined
Predicting the Release
Window of Uncertainty is
larger the further you go
into the future
Predicting the Near Future
Easier to Predict the next
Sprint
Less (time) Stuff Changes
Resources
Requirements
Priorities
Cone of Uncertainty - Prediction
After First Sprint – Re-Plan
Feedback from Actuals
Less Work Remaining
Less Time Remaining
Less Uncertainty about
Release
Fewer Tasks Remain
Tasks are Better Defined
Repeatable Prediction Process
Uncertainty Continues to
Shrink
Predictions Become More
Accurate
Feedback to Stakeholders
Early
Often
Increasing Fidelity
Convert Prediction to Commitment
1. Use Timeboxes
2. Convert “Estimated
Effort” into “Estimated
Deliverables”
3. Use Backlog – Start at
Top of List and Work
Down.
4. Result – Prediction of
Deliverables
Cone of Uncertainty
Still Applies
Still Works the Same Way
Now Uncertainty is “Will
This Capability Make it
Into the Release?”
Confidence -> Commitment
Commit to the Lower Bound
of Your Estimate
Commitments of the Future
have a Lower Level of
Confidence
Exact % Depends on Risk
Tolerance
Next Sprint 80%
Overall Release 50%
Exact % Depends on Amount
of Time Between Now and
Release
Commitment Increases Over Time
With each sprint, you
reduce uncertainty
You can increase your
commitments for the
release
Recurring pattern of good
news updates from the
team
77
Product Roadmaps
External
Customers, sales, partners, (competitors)
Internal
Communication outside the team
Setting context & direction for the team
In Practice
Might need two versions of the roadmap
78
Roadmaps Are High Level
Organize and prioritize at a strategic level
For which customers
are we solving what problem,
in what timeframe?
79
Customer Focus is One Approach
80
Two Approaches
Prioritize by person
Prioritize by problem
81
Roadmap by Person
82
Roadmap by Person
2012 Q2
MVP for Jane
2012 Q3
Ideal for Jane
2012 Q4
Great for Joan too
2013
Now supporting John
83
Roadmap by Problem
84
Roadmap by Problem
2012 Q2
MVP for Jane & Joan
2012 Q3
Better for Jane & Joan
2012 Q4
MVP for John
Even better for Jane & Joan
2013
Better still, for everyone
2014
Ideal for everyone
85
By Person or By Problem?
By Person is Better
Exploring new market
Penetrating existing market
Fast-moving competition
Disruptive products
By Problem is Better
New product for existing
customers
No fast-moving
competition
Incremental improvements
86
From Problems to Capabilities
Persona’s problem space
Product’s needed
capabilities
87
Converting Through Kano
88
Backlog Derived From Goals
89
Another Customer Centric View
90
Boring, But Traditional View
91
92
Coffee
What could possibly be more awesome
than robot dinosaurs with lasers?
93
Switching to…Your Assignment
94
1. Map Your Uncertainty
Show how your current product roadmap maps
into the uncertainty framework.
Would you make any recommendations for
change?
What are the next steps
to take to make those
changes?
2. Understand Your Customer
Diagram the key goals for the key customers
you’re targeting with your current product
3. Relative problem importance
Optional (because it is timeconsuming, not because it is
optional)
Determine the relative
importance of solving the
identified problem for the
identified customers
…and if there are multiple
levels of “solving it better”
4. Reverse-Map Your Backlog
For the top requirements already in your plan,
map them back to the customers & problems
you’ve identified (follow the diagram, but in reverse).
Identify opportunities to change
Incomplete requirements?
Requirements without goals?
Reprioritization needed?
5. Diagram Your Current Process
Diagram how the product process works in your
company
Where would changes provide value?
What are the barriers to making those changes (in
other words, what problems would you have to
solve before your company is able to realize the
value of your proposed changes?)
99
Switch Back to the Scheduled Agenda
Thank You
Work at it. You’ll get there!
101
Thank You!
Scott Sehlhorst
https://twitter.com/sehlhorst Twitter
https://plus.google.com/110352820346292209511 Google +
http://go.tynerblain.com/sehlhorst About Me
http://www.slideshare.net/ssehlhorst Slideshare
http://tynerblain.com/blog Blog
scott@tynerblain.com Email
scott.sehlhorst Skype
Agile since 2001
Started Tyner Blain in 2005
Helping Companies
Build The Right Thing, Right
102
Product Planning & Processes
References
Dublin Institute of Technology
Post-Graduate Diploma in
Product Management
References (p1)
Customer-Centric & Stakeholders
Outside-in Software Development – Kessler & Sweitzer
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0131575511/
Customer-Centric Market Model – Scott Sehlhorst http://tynerblain.com/blog/2010/09/20/customer-centricmarket-model/
Stakeholder Goals: Principal vs. End User – Scott Sehlhorst
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2007/10/18/stakeholder-goals-2/
Customer Experience (Journey) Mapping – Chris Risdon
http://www.slideshare.net/livebysatellite/ia-summit-2012-mapping-the-experience
Innovation Management
Jose Briones http://www.brioneja.com/ http://eyeontheworld.typepad.com/eidt/
http://www.innovationexcellence.com/blog/2012/03/18/beyond-stage-gate-repeating-disruptive-innovation/
http://www.slideshare.net/Brioneja/brioneja-probabilistic-decision-analysis-and-innovation-project-management-josebriones-110210a
http://www.slideshare.net/Brioneja/brioneja-beyond-stagegate-a-new-approach-for-innovation
Rita Gunther McGrath http://ritamcgrath.com/blog/ http://blogs.hbr.org/hbr/mcgrath/
http://www.amazon.com/Entrepreneurial-Mindset-Continuously-Opportunity-Uncertainty/dp/0875848346
http://www.leighbureau.com/speakers/rmcgrath/essays/mindset.pdf
http://ritamcgrath.com/ee/images/uploads/Discovery_Driven_Planning.pdf
http://www.cfar.com/Documents/options.pdf
References (p2)
Market Problems
Scott Sehlhorst - http://tynerblain.com/blog/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2008/08/26/market-driven-advantage/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2011/11/15/comparing-products-1/ (8-part series)
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2010/09/20/customer-centric-market-model/
http://www.slideshare.net/ssehlhorst/kano-analysis20090923
Lean Software Development Process
Giff Constable http://giffconstable.com/
Experiments & MVP http://www.slideshare.net/giffc/mvpexperiments-talk-at-sva-ixd-program
(pp.20-31)
Agile
Mike Cohn http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/
Presentation (two parts) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fb9Rzyi8b90
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeT0pOVg0EI
Agile Estimating and Planning http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0131479415/
Scott Sehlhorst
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2011/08/09/agile-estimation/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2010/08/24/inside-a-scrum-sprint/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2010/09/08/sprint-backlog-splitting-user-stories/
References (p3)
Goal-Driven Development
Scott Sehlhorst
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/03/22/how-to-create-personas-for-goal-drivendevelopment/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/04/17/persona-grata/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2008/07/22/buyers-and-users/
Structured Requirements
Scott Sehlhorst
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/01/04/foundation-series-structured-requirements/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/03/21/interaction-design-process-overview/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/03/23/interaction-design-and-structured-requirements/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/05/23/non-functional-requirements-era/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/05/25/writing-good-requirements-the-big-ten-rules/
(Series of 12 articles)
Karl Wiegers
Software Requirements, 2nd Edition http://www.amazon.com/Software-Requirements-2Karl-Wiegers/dp/0735618798
More About Software Requirements http://www.amazon.com/More-About-SoftwareRequirements-Practical/dp/0735622671
References (p4)
Use Cases & User Stories
Alistair Cockburn
Writing Effective Use Cases http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0201702258/
Patterns for Effective Use Cases http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0201721848/
http://alistair.cockburn.us/A+user+story+is+to+a+use+case+as+a+gazelle+is+to+a+gazebo
Mike Cohn
User Stories Applied http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0321205685
Scott Sehlhorst
User Stories and Use Cases http://tynerblain.com/blog/2009/02/02/user-stories-and-use-cases/
How To Read a Formal Use Case http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/06/26/foundation-series-how-to-reada-formal-use-case/
Informal Use Case http://tynerblain.com/blog/2005/12/21/use-case-series-informal-use-case/
Agile Development of Use Cases http://tynerblain.com/blog/2007/04/02/agile-development-of-usecases/
Scott Ambler
Introduction to User Stories http://www.agilemodeling.com/artifacts/userStory.htm
The Ambiguity Handbook – Daniel Berry
http://se.uwaterloo.ca/~dberry/handbook/ambiguityHandbook.pdf
References (p5)
Planning & Estimation
IBM (RUP)
http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/rational/library/jun07/peraire/index.html
http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/rational/library/content/03July/1000/1251/1251_bestpractices_TP
026B.pdf
Frederick Brooks - The Mythical Man Month: Essays on Software Engineering
http://www.amazon.com/Mythical-Man-Month-Software-Engineering-Anniversary/dp/0201835959
Scott Ambler http://www.ambysoft.com http://www.agilemodeling.com
http://www.ambysoft.com/essays/brokenTriangle.html
http://www.agilemodeling.com/essays/initialRequirementsModeling.htm
http://www.agilemodeling.com/essays/agileModelingRUP.htm
Jeff Atwood http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/
http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2006/10/the-iron-stool.html
Alistair Cockburn
http://alistair.cockburn.us/Process%3a+the+4th+dimension
Scott Sehlhorst
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/04/12/how-to-use-timeboxes-for-scheduling-software-delivery/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2008/11/12/satisficing-sprints/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/04/13/foundation-series-basic-pert-estimate-tutorial/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2009/06/18/advanced-pert-estimation/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2009/06/18/advanced-pert-estimation/2/
References (p6)
Process
IBM (RUP)
http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/rational/library/jun07/peraire/in
dex.html
http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/rational/library/content/03July/1
000/1251/1251_bestpractices_TP026B.pdf
frog design
http://www.slideshare.net/frogdesign/work-states
Other
Scott Sehlhorst
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2012/02/21/strategic-product-manager/
Marty Cagan (Silicon Valley Product Group)
http://www.svpg.com/dual-track-scrum
From My Bookshelf
The Art of Product Management – Rich Mironov
The Product Manager’s Desk Reference – Stephen
Haines
Writing Effective Use Cases – Alistair Cockburn
Patterns for Effective Use Cases – Adolph, Bramble,
Cockburn, Pols
Software Requirements, 2nd Edition – Karl Wiegers
User Stories Applied – Mike Cohn
Requirements by Collaboration – Ellen Gottesdiener
The Innovator’s Dilemma – Clayton Christensen
The Back of the Napkin – Dan Roam
UML for the IT Business Analyst – Howard Podeswa
Tuned In – Stull, Meyers, Scott
Innovation Games – Luke Hohmann
The Design of Everyday Things – Donald Norman
Impact Mapping – Gojko Adzic
The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing – Ries & Trout
Marketing Warfare – Ries & Trout
The Long Tail – Chris Anderson
Outliers – Malcolm Gladwell
Nudge – Thaler & Sunstein
The Paradox of Choice – Barry Schwartz
Blue Ocean Strategy – Kim & Mauborgne
The Design of Design – Frederick Brooks
The Inmates are Running the Asylum – Alan Cooper
Discover to Deliver – Gottesdiener & Gorman
The Elements of User Experience – Jesse James
Garrett
Additional References
These all relate to discussion topics that came up during the 2012 or 2013 cohorts
Outsourced Development
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/04/05/outsourcing-conversation-one-topic-two-blogs-three-cs/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2007/11/01/outsourcing-debate/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/03/31/four-outsourcing-models-for-software-development/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2008/05/05/offshore-development/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2008/05/14/offshore-design/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/08/23/making-agile-offshore-teams-work/
CMMI
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/03/10/foundation-series-cmmi-levels-explained/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/03/12/what-cmmi-level-should-we-use/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2007/01/25/cmmi-and-rmm-intro/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2007/01/26/cmmi-and-rmm-level-1/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2007/01/29/cmmi-and-rmm-level-2/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2007/01/30/cmmi-and-rmm-level-3/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2007/01/31/cmmi-and-rmm-level-4/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2007/02/01/cmmi-and-rmm-level-5/
Agile and UX
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2006/03/03/foundation-series-user-experience-disciplines/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2010/11/10/agile-and-ux/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2009/10/19/agile-prioritization/
http://tynerblain.com/blog/2010/10/25/a-prototype-is-worth-a-kloc/
Credits
All the cool watches
• Gábor Balogh - designer
•
•
•
https://www.behance.net/gallery/Smartwatch-Concept/14929833
http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/7/5477768/gabor-balogh-circular-smartwatch-concept
http://imgur.com/gallery/9afxv
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