ITechKnow
Terry Boult
Nina Polok
Don Kraft
Today’s Agenda
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9-9:20
9:20-10:05
10:05-10:15
10:15-11:40
11:45-12:45
12:45-2:30
2:30-2:45
2:45-3:30
3:30-5
Photos for web-pages (& donuts)
Introductions
Bio-break
Why study & what is Engineering
Lunch
Instruction for campus hunt
The Campus Quiz + bioBreak
The syllabus and class structure
Online work in computer lab
Some Basic Info About Me
 Education
– B.S. Aerospace Engineering from CU Boulder
– M.B.A. Information Systems from UCCS
– Ph.D. Organization Development from CU Boulder
 Have Worked at:
– Digital Equipment, University of Colorado, Hewlett Packard,
Agilent Technologies
 My consulting company: New Perspectives, LLC
 Married 35 years (to the same man!)
 2 grown children, both married, all four graduates of
UCCS
Terry Boult
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First in family to go to college..
Paid my way though Columbia Univ.
BS Applied Math 83, MS CS 84, Ph.DCS 86
8 Years on faculty at Columbia Univ.
9 year on faculty at Lehigh Univ.
Chair IEEE PAMI TC,
VP IEEE Biometrics Council
On my 3rd startup company involvement.
What is Innovation?
Creativity is thinking up new things. Innovation is doing new
things. - Theodore Levitt Harvard Business School
Research is the transformation of money into knowledge —
Innovation is the transformation of knowledge into money!
Ray Mears, 3M,
"Protect and Survive" Design Council Business Network Surgery, 2001
And I have grudgingly come to realize that invention is often the
easy part of innovation. The hard part is usually the
implementation. J. S. Brown Chief Scientist Xerox, director Xerox PARC
Innovation is broadly defined as people and organizations creating
value by perpetually adapting and developing new processes,
ideas, and products. Berkley School of Business
Innovation is transforming ideas into impact – T. Boult
Innovation at UCCS
 Did you know that last year…
– UCCS produced 1.77 invention disclosures (IDs) per
million of research funding. CU Denver (including
Health Sciences) produced 0.34 per million. CU
Boulder produced 0.39 per million.
– UCCS produced 1.5 times as many IDs per faculty as
CU Boulder, and 1.75 times CUD.
– Over past 8 years UCCS produced 3x as many startup
companies, per million of R&D funding, as CU
Boulder and almost 6x CUD/HS.
 UCCS is smaller, but we do innovation well.
Boult’s “Innovation” funding
 Focus is having research with use & “Impact”
 Currently 16 ongoing Contracts/Grants
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NSF Partner for Innovation grant (600K)
ONR MURI (1.3M for UCCS)
ONR C2Fuse (1.7M)
3 Smaller grants/contracts.
3 Phase II SBIR/STTRs with Securics (DOD, NSF, ONR)
2 Phase II SBIRs/STTRs with others (Army, Navy)
5 Phase I SBIRs (NIH, DOD, DHS, DOC/NIST)
 Over past 4 years have helped local companies win more
than 8M in SBIR R&D funding.
Privacy
Enhance
Biometrics
Dr. Boult’s biometrics work
highlighted in congressional
testimony in June
GeoZigbee: wireless low-power Geotracking of trauma patients
Web-supported Trauma Treatment
ONR SBIR on
portable omnidirectional
surveillance and
ship protection from
fusion of omnidirectional and
acoustic. (Remote
Reality + UCCS)
Now transitioning
into FPGA
hardware to be
used by Navy
submarine fleet
Shoreline
Sail Boat
Vessel or Shoreline?
Speed Boat
No Wake
Vessels
Maritime Surveillance
Glare
IED detection from micro UAV
Geo-reference
UAV imagery
Real-time Object
Recognition/Tracking
(Context dependent)
UIGUI-specified
Filtering &
Triggers
On Object &
CD data
Imagery, Context,
Object GeoDB
DDMCMC/MRF
Recognize and Geotag context. (Offline)
Warp/Align
DB Imagery
Image-based
Change
detection
Long-Range Biometrics
FPGA-based Intensified-Image Networked Detector with Embedded Recognition
Tech Goals:
Recognition with standoff 1km+ for operator/uplink
Face recognition, Camera standoff (placement distance):
Daytime
250m (threshold), 500m (objective)
Night:
100m (threshold), 250m (objective)
Networking Options: Long-range 802.11b/g or Zigbee (up to 1km)
SWAP: Objective <10kg (with 24-48hr battery)
Embedded Video systems
 Previous work deployed both within
DOD and commercially. (My second
startup involvement acquired last
year).
 Have work with 4 small companies
on SBIR/STTRs.
 Privacy-enhance video surveillance
and face-recognition will be
deployed this fall in “assisted living”
facilities.
Low-power Networking
Socom BAA,
Army STTR and
NIST SBIR with
NIST SBIR with Navsys
ONR SBIR with
CombatTrainingSolutions
+ Direct Company funded
project.
 Work in Protocols for Mobile
networking and video
surveillance on low-bandwidth
networks.
 Current effort in novel packetmerging network protocols.
 Ongoing efforts in low-power
sensor-networks, system
design, sensor integration and
evaluation.
Why Study?
Questions for you
 What is the lifetime value of College?
 What’s the “value” of studying?
 What is the life-time value of Engineering vs
other fields?
On average, the more education you complete,
the more money you earn.
Average Annual Income by Educational
Attainment for Persons over Age 25
(2002)
$113K
$90K
$53K
$23K
$19K
< 9th Grade
Some HS
$29K
HS
Graduate
$35K
$36K
Some
College
Associates
Bachelors
$61K
Masters
Doctoral
Professional
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2003 Demographic Supplement
Education reduces unemployment
$100,000
$80,000
Average
Earnings
$81,380
$64,532
$54,714
$60,000
$38,012
$40,000
$30,056
$22,100
$20,000
$0
0%
($20,000)
($40,000)
5%
($60,000)
10%
($80,000)
15%
($100,000)
< HS
H.S. Grad
A.A.
Bachelor's
Master's
Doctorate
Average
Unemployment Rate
The Value of a College Education
 Bachelor’s degree holders earn on average
75% more than high school graduates.
 This adds up to about $1 million over a
lifetime.
 Engineers make much more on average with
lower average unemployment.
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2003 Demographic Supplement
Lifetime Value
Careers that require a college degree are far
more likely to have benefits such as health
insurance, retirement plans, and paid
vacations. Adding these to salary, it is easy to
imagine a college degree worth several million
dollars over your lifetime.
The Value of a College Education
A college degree also has many non-monetary benefits
that lead to a higher quality of life.
Longer life expectancy and better health
Women with college degrees live on average 4 years
longer than women with high school degrees.
Greater participation in community and volunteer activities
College grads are active in their communities 50% more
than those with only a high school degree.
Much greater participation in arts and leisure activities
College grads are more than 50% more likely to go to the
movies at least once per year.
Source: “Why College? Private Correlates of Educational Attainment”
Postsecondary Education Opportunity, March 1999
The Value of a College Education is
Increasing
 For full-time male workers between the ages of 35 and
44, the earnings premium associated with having a
bachelor’s degree versus a high school diploma has
risen from 38% in 1980-84 to 94% percent in 2000-03.
The bottom line: a college degree
has a greater impact on earnings
today than ever before.
Investing in Education
If we look at an engineering degree as an
investment, we see it has a greater return
than the stock market.
 Annual net return on college – 15% per year, over
and above inflation.
 Annual net return on stocks – 7% per year, on
average not including inflation (2-5% after inflation)
Lifetime Value
 Attending classes diligently and alertly is a key to
college success, no matter how boring your
professor may be. Success in life depends on what
you can learn on your own, not what you learn in
lecture.
 You should spend 15 hours per week in a classroom
for 30 weeks each of your 4 years at UCCS, leading
to a degree.
 This is $1,111 of lifetime value per hour spent in
the classroom.
Lifetime Value
Studying = $500/hour
 Studying an average of three hours per
credit hour per week instead of one hour is
quite often the difference between success
and failure.
 The extra hours studying can be worth
>$500 prorated per hour.
The College Experience
Before hitting the snooze button and skipping class,
consider the long term value of that class to you.
Before deciding to replace three hours of studying with
three hours of partying, consider the value of those
study hours to you. Do your socializing after you
complete your studying.
Why Study Engineering?
Why be an Engineer?
 FUN
– Great variety and challenge in your work
– Work as a team with others
 IMPACT
– Build or improve lasting and tangible products
– Use your creativity to solve problems and help humankind
 Lots of Job Opportunities
– Everywhere you look there are engineering jobs
 Money
– Engineers make some of the highest amounts of any career
with a 4-year degree
• Average engineer salary(after 7 years): $76,000
• Comparison: Lawyers (after 7 years) = $56,000 average
• Medical doctors = Higher salaries only after 11 years
Source: Occupational Outlook Handbook,07-08; payscale.com
Do you know who this guy is?

If you use a computer, his product is
something you probably use
everyday…

HINT:
 It’s LARRY PAGE: co-founder of
GOOGLE
 His net worth = $18.5 BILLION!
 26TH Richest Man in the WORLD at 35!
 Guess What? He’s an ENGINEER!
What about these guys???

Here’s a HINT:
 Steve Chen & Chad Hurley:
Co-founders of YouTube
 Recently sold YouTube to Google
for $1.65 BILLION!
 Guess what?
are Engineers!
They too
“….engineering is creativity, it's curiosity, it's
common sense and it's cool stuff. It's not just
geeks with pocket protectors."
Sally Ride, 1st Woman in Space
“Engineering is a great profession. There is the
fascination of watching a figment of imagination
emerge through the aid of science to a plan on
paper. Then it moves to realization in stone or
metal or energy. Then it creates homes and jobs,
elevates the standard of living and adds to the
comforts of life. That is the engineer’s high
privilege.”
Herbert Hoover
STEM TEAMS.ORG
31st President of the US
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
Engineering Pays More
2003 Average
Eng Salaries
Overall Average
Earnings
$120,000
$100,000
$100,000
$81,380
$80,000
2003 Average
Starting Salaries
$104,000
$98,231
$90,514
$80,000
$64,532
$60,000
$60,000
$54,714
$40,000
$40,000
$20,000
$20,000
$0
$0
0%
($20,000)
($40,000)
5%
($60,000)
10%
($80,000)
15%
($100,000)
Bachelor's
Master's
Doctorate
0%
5%
Overall Average
Unemployment Rate
10%
15%
Bachelor's
Master's
Doctorate
2003 Average Eng
Unemployment Rate
Salary Showdown:
Median Starting Salary with BS
70000
Computer Eng
61400
60900
60000
Eletrical Eng.
57900
Mechanical Eng.
Finance
50000
40000
47900
43000
40800
38800
35900
35700
30000
Source: payscale.com 2007 medial starting salaries
Bus. Management
Marketing
Biology
Psychology
Graphics Design
Mid-career(+15y) Median Salaries.
BS Only, no advanced degrees
110000
Computer Eng
Eletrical Eng.
100000
90000
Mechanical Eng.
Finance
Bus. Management
80000
70000
Marketing
Biology
Psychology
60000
Graphics Design
50000
Source: http://www.payscale.com/best-colleges/degrees.asp
Do What You
Love!
 Follow your dreams
 There is something for
everyone in
engineering.
 There are more than
25 major branches
and 100 specialties.
Sports Tech
Amusement
Video & Film
Environment
Space
Exploration
Medicine
Music
Shopping
Yep, Even Macy’s hires
engineers!
Food
Math is just one tool in the box
 Many students shy away
from engineering because
of the math.
 Math and science are
tools to understand the
world
 Some fields of
engineering need a lot,
others need little.
What Makes a Good Engineer?
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Technical Skills
Creativity
Passion
Energy
Communications skills
Teamwork Skills
Excitement about what
you do
Examples of Engineering?
Engineers are practical inventors that turn ideas into reality.
They are the concept people of our designed world.
 A doctor sends a microscopic robot into a patient’s artery
to destroy a blood clot.
 Disneyland wants a new thrill ride.
 People want to see the yellow line when they watch a
football game.
 People need electric cars to slow global warming.
 NASA wants to land a space craft on Mars
 People want to take pictures, watch movies, check email
and listen to music on their cell phones.
Engineering can also be a
launching pad for other
professions
 Many engineers become patent attorneys
 Biomedical engineers have the highest acceptance
rate into medical school
 More engineers are CEO’s of companies than any
other major
 Many become financial analysts on Wall Street
 Some go into politics
 Many become teachers or writers
Many Career Options
 People who enjoy working with other
people and traveling may become
sales or field service engineers.
 People who enjoy life’s big picture may
become the systems engineers who
put all the pieces together.
 Creative people or people who
constantly have new ideas about
everything may enjoy working as
design engineers.
 People who enjoy conducting
experiments or working in laboratories
may enjoy working as test engineers.
47
Engineering Contributions
 Scientists, engineers make up less
than five percent of U.S. population,
but create 50% of gross domestic
product – Reader’s Digest,
December 2005
20 “great” achievements of
modern engineering
 20. High performance materials
 19. Nuclear technologies
 18. Laser and fiber optics
 17. Petroleum and petrochemical
technologies
 16. Health technologies
Some major engineering
achievements
 15. Household appliances
 14. Imaging
 13. Internet
 12. Spacecraft
 11. Highways
Some major engineering
achievements
 10. Air conditioning and
Refrigeration
 9. Telephone
 8. Computers
 7. Agricultural Mechanization
 6. Radio and Television
 Electronics
 Water supply distribution
 Airplane
 Automobile
 Electrification
What Is Engineering?
Adapted from slides from STEM TEAMS.ORG and from Project Lead the Way
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
Engineering – what is it?
Herb Simon
 Science is the study of what is.
 Engineering is the creation of what is to
be.
Engineering is different from
science.
 Science
– Discovery
– Understanding
– Knowledge
– Natural world
– “The world as we
found it”
 Engineering
– Design &
Understanding
– Creating/producing
– Technology
– Artificial world
– The world we create
Design
 The man-made world
 The creation of artifacts
 Adapting the environment to our needs and
desires
 Design is the concern of engineers, architects, and
artists
Design as problem solving
 Given
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–
–
Problem specification
Initial conditions
Constraints
Standards/regulations
 Find a Solution
Design is creative
 Design problems
–
–
–
–
Open-ended
Ill-defined (vague)
Multiple alternatives
Generate lots of solutions
Design is Experimental and
Iterative
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Getting it right takes many tries
The first cut is rarely good enough
Some designs fail
Even if satisfactory, most designs can be
improved
 Once it works, refine it
Design cycle
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Requirements, problem
Generate ideas
Initial concept
Rough design
Prototype
Detailed design
Analysis
Redesign if needed
Design
 The core problem solving process of
technological development
 “It is as fundamental to technology as
observation is to science or reading is to
language arts”
What is Engineering?
ABET says…
(Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology)
Engineering is the profession in which a knowledge
of the mathematical and natural sciences, gained by
study, experience, and practice, is applied with
judgment, to develop ways to utilize, economically,
the materials and forces of nature for the benefit of
mankind.
Engineering History
Way back…
Survival was our only concern
o food
o protection from the elements
o protection from predators
Engineering History
Way back but a little more
recent…
Egypt
Rome
Greece
- Pyramids and the Sphinx
- The Coliseum
- The Parthenon
Plumbing, Cooking tools, Artisan Tools, Musical
instruments, Paper, ink
Engineering
History
Recently…
Computers, Cell phones….
Malaysia
United States
Europe
Sweden
- Petronas Towers (1,483 ft) V
- Space shuttle
- Channel Tunnel
- Volvo Self-parking car
Unsung heroes…
In today’s world, while professions such as law,
medicine, and law enforcement dominate the media,
engineers quietly create the planes that take us safely
and quickly to all parts of the world, the automobiles
that need virtually no maintenance, the computer
networks that give us instant access to the world’s
databases, cellular phones to keep us in touch
anywhere, as well as a vehicle capable of exploring
Mars. The engineer strives to give the user a product
that is affordable, safe, durable, reliable, and
evermore useful.
Engineering History
The future…
The 21st century will demand –
 smaller and faster computers
 convenient communication systems
 faster and more efficient airplanes
 more efficient use of recourses
 less costly but more effective medical diagnostics
equipment
 and new technologies we cannot even imagine and seem
like magic.
Clarke's third law
(1961)
Any sufficiently advanced
technology is indistinguishable
from magic.
Serious thinkers of their day
 19th Century
– No market for the telegraph,
we have enough messenger boys
• Head of Post Office
 20th Century
– “In the future computers may weigh less than 1.5 tons”
“Popular Mechanics” magazine 1949
– No worldwide market for mobile phones (< 100,000 units in total)
• (USA consultancy firm)
– 640 Kbytes enough for anyone,
• Software CEO
 21st Century
– Its up to us.. That’s why we are here
“Exponential Change & Education”
 Technology’s growth is from connecting existing
knowledge and facts together and making new
inferences. Its growth depends on current knowledge
– If facts grow linearly, connections grow exponentially.
 (As an aside: Not all fields have this growth. Also have
some fun in college but you’re here for the education,
which compounds through your lifetime.)
 Fun is “flat”; Education is Exponential!
Technology builds on itself and
drives exponential change
Imagine folding a paper (doubles in thickness)
How thick is it in say 40 folds?
A standard piece of paper folded “40 times” would be
approximately 280,000 miles thick -- more than the
distance from the Earth to the moon!
Exponential Growth
 Occurs when growth is proportional to current size
 Mathematically: dy / dt = k * y
 Solution:
y = e k*t
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



E.g., a bond with $100 principal yielding 10% interest
1 year: $110 = $100 * (1 + 0.10)
2 years: $121 = $100 * (1 + 0.10) * (1 + 0.10)
…
8 years: $214 = $100 * (1 + 0.10)8
 Other examples
– Unconstrained population growth
– Moore’s Law
Absurd Exponential Example
 Parameters
– $16 base
– 59% growth/year
– 36 years
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1st year’s $16  buy book
3rd year’s $64  buy computer game
15th year’s $16,000  buy car
24th year’s $100,000  buy house
36th year’s $300,000,000  buy a lot
Technology Background
 Computer logic implemented with switches
– Like light switches, except that a switch can control others
– Yields a network (called circuit) of switches
– Want circuits to be fast, reliable, & cheap
 Logic Technologies
– Mechanical switch & vacuum tube
– Transistor (1947)
– Integrated circuit (chip): circuit of many
transistors made at once (1958)
 (Also memory & communication technologies)
(Technologist’s) Moore’s Law
 Parameters
– 16 transistor/chip circa 1964
– 59% growth/year
– 36 years (2000) and counting
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1st year’s 16  ???
3rd year’s 64  ???
15th year’s 16,000  ???
24th year’s 100,000  ???
36th year’s 300,000,000  ???
 Was useful & then got more than 1,000,000 times better!
(Technologist’s) Moore’s Law Data
Other “Moore’s Laws”
 Other technologies improving rapidly
– Magnetic disk capacity
– DRAM capacity
– Fiber-optic network bandwidth
 Other aspects improving slowly
– Delay to memory
– Delay to disk
– Delay across networks
 Computer Implementor’s Challenge
– Design with dissimilarly expanding resources
– To Double computer performance every two years
– A.k.a., (Popular) Moore’s Law
Computing costs
Yesterday
Tomorrow
2015
2005
1$
40$
400$
1,000$
10,000$
700 MHz
in a room
1995
700 MHz
in a box
1999
Original by Gordon Bell 1998
Embeddable
Wrist watch / wallet
Palm top (700MHz)
Desktop (3 GHz)
Server
0.1$
4$
40$
100$
1,000$
700 MHz
under
the TV
700 MHz
in your pocket
2001
2004
2008 ??
Chips ++
Computing….the 5th paradigm
Source: Ray Kurzweil
Moore’s Law was not the first but the FIFTH paradigm to
provide for exponential growth of computing. One runs out of
steam....Another picks-up the pace!
Historical perspective - Then
Egyptian, Greek and Roman…
 Public works, structures, monuments, temples
 basic skills and objectives the same
 plan, organize, brainstorm concepts, calculate
precisely, build
 durable, reliable, aesthetically pleasing, within
budget
Historical perspective - Now
Additional challenges…
o mandatory recycling
o
o
o
o
regulatory agencies
certification groups
global competition
pace of technological change
Some questions
 In what ways did prehistoric engineers overcome
limitations of the time to perform the same functions
as modern engineers?
 What were the attributes possessed by early
engineers that would help you become a successful
engineer today?
More questions
 Which areas of current research do you think are
going to have the greatest impact in the next ten
years and how will that research affect current
problems?
 Which engineering feat of the 20th century do you
feel was the most significant and what were some of
the underlying principles that finally made it
possible?
Engineering – what choices?
Electrical Engineering
 EE’s use science of electricity do solve
problems. Power, communications, and
circuits are common subarea.
 Simple circuits of switches• Turning on a light switch
• A digital clock
 Industries that hire EEs
–
–
–
–
–
Power
SemiConductor Manufacturers
Computer & Device makers
Areospace
Defense programs
Computer Science
 Design/develop information systems
 Develop algorithms to solve problems and
software and programs to run electronics.
 Less that half “program” on a regular basis
• Industries that hire computer scientists:
- IT
- Manufacturing
- Networking
- Business & Financial systems
- Defense programs
Software Engineering
 The study of how to Build
Large Scale systems
 Related to CS, but its own
subspecality.
• Industries that hire computer scientists:
-Major contractors (IBM, LM, NG, GE, Boeing)
-Major developers
-NASA
Computer Engineering
 Aspects of CS and EE, its
where the two come
together. Firmware,
digital designs and
embedded devices
• Industries that hire Computer Engineers:
- Computer related systems (CD-ROMs, GPS, etc.)
- Robotics
- Virtual reality systems
- Embedded device developers (cell phones, cars, etc.)
Mechanical Engineering
 ME’s use the laws of physics
for - mechanical design,
manufacturing, or energy &
power.
 Industries that hire
mechanical engineers:
– Automotive
– Toys
– Manufacturing plants
Aerospace Engineering
 Specialize in design,
testing, and production of
aircrafts, missiles and
spacecrafts.
 Industries that hire
aerospace engineers:
– Commercial aviation
– Defense programs
– Space programs
Civil Engineering
 Design and construct buildings,
bridges, tunnels and
transportation systems.
 Work closely with architects and
environmental engineers.
 Industries that hire civil
engineers
– Departments of transportation
– Construction
– Manufacturing
Chemical Engineering
 Study chemical synthesis to make new
materials, energy systems, and medicines.
 Industries that hire chemical engineers:
–
–
–
–
–
Energy companies- Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Cell
Food producers
Pharmaceuticals
Plastics
Cosmetics
Biomedical Engineering
 An interdisciplinary field that combines
mechanical, electrical, and chemical
engineering.
 Design artificial limbs/organs and medical
instruments, new treatments for disease.
 Industries that hire biomedical engineers:
– Medical devices
– Assistive devices
– Pharmaceutical companies
Environmental Engineering
 Involved with projects
that work on keeping the
water, air and soil
healthy.
 Industries that hire
environmental engineers:
–
–
–
–
Waste management
Irrigation
Pollution control
Hazardous site
management
– Water treatment
What Does it Take to Become an
Engineer?





Curiosity
Creativity
Like to figure things out, solve problems
Four year college engineering degree
A bit more work than many majors
Why be an engineer?
 Fun
– Help people; improve lives
– Solve real world problems
– Variety of applications, projects
– Contribute to society
 Lots of opportunities
– High demand for engineers
– Large and small companies, universities, non profits
 Rewarding Career
– Innovative thinking, and you get paid!
– Provides a very strong background for other careers
How is my life affected by the work of Engineers
Its not always so obvious
?
Let's take an everyday automobile as an example. Cars clearly have mechanical
engineering in them. But Take a minute and try to brainstorm what components of a
car have some sort of electrical or computer “engineering”.
Entertainment
Body Electronics
Cellular Phone
CD Player
AM/FM Radio
Tape Player
Television
CB Radio
Airbags
Climate Control
Security System
Keyless Entry
Automatic Seatbelts
Memory Seat
Memory Mirror
Vehicle Control
Antilock Brakes
Traction Control
Suspension
Power Steering
4 Wheel Steering
Power Train
Engine
Transmission
Charging System
Cruise Control
Cooling Fan
Ignition
4 Wheel Drive
Instrumentation
Analog Dashboard
Digital Dashboard
Navigation
Heads Up Display(HUD)
Global Positioning
System (GPS)
What is Engineering’s future?
Education needs for 2020
The National Academy of Engineering (NAE) report
Educating the Engineer of 2020 concludes:
 “If the United States is to maintain its economic
leadership and be able to sustain its share of high
technology jobs, it must prepare for this wave of change.
While there is no consensus at this stage, it is agreed that
innovation is the key and engineering is essential to this
task; but engineering will only contribute to success if it
is able to continue to adapt to new trends and provide
education to the next generation of students so as to arm
them with the tools needed for the world as it will be, not
as it is today.”
Innovation importance growing
A 2006 survey by the Business Roundtable found:
 
33% of opinion leaders and 18% of voters said
improving U.S. science and technology capabilities to
increase U.S. innovation and competitiveness is our
country’s single most important objective;
 
62% of both groups said that addressing this
problem is equally important to other challenges such as
national security, transportation, health care, energy and
the legal system;
 
76% of opinion leaders and 51% of American
voters rank a focus on education as the most important
way to solve the problem;
But there is a problem
 Only 5% of the survey parents said they would try to
persuade their child toward careers in STEM (Science,
Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics), while 65%
said they would allow the child to pursue whatever career
path he/she prefers and 27% said they would encourage
the child to pursue a STEM career but balance it with the
child’s preference.
 In a 2003 national survey commissioned by GE, only
9% of college students polled indicated that they felt
the United States is doing enough to foster innovation
among young people.
Production of Engineers (1999)
- National Science Foundation
Country
BS Engineers
Percent of Grads
- Eng.
China
195,354
44.30%
US
60,914
5.08%
Russia
82,409
14.85%
India
145,000
15.44%
Japan
103,440
19.43%
South Korea
45,145
22.09%
Five years later . . . .
 China graduated 650,000 engineers in 2005.
– 2,000 considered to be “world-class”
– The half considered equivalent to average US graduates
– Half are engineers in “name” (e.g. auto mechanical
engineer)
 Prediction – Asia will have 90% of all practicing
engineers by 2010.
- Asia Section, The Economist, 2004, p. 35
Opposite Trend Occurring in US
2004 Reports by ASEE and NAE concluded that:
“US engineers lead the world in innovation. This great national
resource is at serious risk because America has an
engineering deficit.”
 While U.S. college graduation rates increased by 26% from
1985 to 2000, graduation rates for engineers decreased by 23
percent during the same period.
 88% of K-12 teachers believe that engineering is important for
understanding the world around us while only 30% of teachers
feel that their students could succeed as engineers.
Reference: "Engineering in the K-12 Classroom: An Analysis of Current
Practices and Guidelines for the Future" (http://www.engineeringk12.org)
Undergraduate
U.S. Engineering
Enrollment by Level
and by Year
Downward
Trend Since
1993
Source:
Science & Engineering
Indicators – 2002
Downward
Trend Since
1983
Graduate
Graduate
Bachelor
Degrees
Earned in
S&E
Fields
Source:
Science & Engineering
Indicators – 2002
The Observational Equivalence of
Technological Change and Offshoring
 Although the US experience of last 55 years is
dominated by technological change, not
offshoring, they are observationally equivalent.
 Ingram/Krugman parable tells of US entrepreneur
creating consumer goods from wheat and lumber.
Moral: same result with technology or offshoring.
 Robert Feenstra demonstrates that technological
change and imported intermediate imports have
identical effects in raising labor productivity.
From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing, Conf. 2004
Question for you
 How many thing “outsourcing” is hurting
engineering job prospects?
 Has outsourcing reduced our economy?
US Real GDP per Worker Grew 254%:
More Goods & Services or Less Employment?
7.0
Real GDP
Total Employment
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
2002
Major concern by early 1960s that “automated factories”
would create vast production worker unemployment.
From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing, Conf. 2004
2003
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1.0
Last 55 Years: Stable Unemployment Rate
and Rising Labor Force Participation
Unemployment Rate (Left Axis)
Labor Force Participation Rate (Right Axis)
12
68
11
10
66
9
8
64
7
6
62
5
4
60
3
2
58
1
Displaced workers have left no trace in terms of a rising
unemployment rate or a falling labor participation rate.
From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing, Conf. 2004
2003
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
56
1948
0
Service Sector Jobs Lost to
Offshoring
 Bardhan, Jaffee, & Kroll [2003] demonstrate that 6
service jobs were created for every production job lost
in US computer manufacturing.
But are we now losing these service jobs?
 Service offshoring uses occupations, not industries.
Ex: call center operators, software developers, etc.
 Core features of jobs “at risk” to offshoring:
– Face to face contact not required.
– Communication based on telephone or broadband.
– Scripted or data related services.
From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing, Conf. 2004
No Empirical Effects (so far) on
Wages in “At-Risk” Occupations
Table 5
Occupations
All Occupations
At Risk Occupations, Total
Business/Finance Support
Computer and Mathmatical
Graphics/Design/Writing
Office Support
Medical/Legal/Sales
Average Annual Wage, At-Risk and Total Occupations
Code
1999
2000
2001
2002
May 2003
31,571
32,890
34,020
35,560
36,210
35,035
37,724
39,162
40,380
41,486
13-xxxx
46,934
50,049
52,559
55,517
57,775
15-xxxx
54,930
58,050
60,350
61,630
63240
17-, 27-xxxx
38,999
40,742
42,023
43,268
43,419
43-xxxx
26,966
28,741
29,791
30,561
30,951
Misc.
27,107
28,319
29,249
30,411
31,211
Wages relative to US All Occupations
At Risk Occupations, Total
1.11
1.15
1.15
1.14
1.15
Business/Finance Support 13-xxxx
1.49
1.52
1.54
1.56
1.60
Computer and Mathmatical 15-xxxx
1.74
1.76
1.77
1.73
1.75
Graphics/Design/Writing
17-, 27-xxxx
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.22
1.20
Office Support
43-xxxx
0.85
0.87
0.88
0.86
0.85
Medical/Legal/Sales
Misc.
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.86
Source: Occupation Employment Survey (OES), Bureau of Labor Statistics
There is no sign (so far) that offshoring is creating falling
wages (either absolute or relative) in “at-risk” occupations
From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing, Conf. 2004
2006-16 Workforce Demand:
Percentage Increase (Labor Dept.)
Network systems & data
communications analysts
Computer software engineers,
applications
Computer software engineers,
systems software
Network & computer systems
administrators
Database administrators
Up 54.6%
Computer systems analysts
Up 31.4%
Up 48.4%
Up 43.0%
Up 38.4%
Up 38.2%
113
Jobs Lost to Technological Change
or Offshoring: Conclusions
 Job losses are essential response to technological
change (Schumpeter’s “creative destruction”) and
to offshoring (Rodrik’s “no pain, no gain”).
 US labor markets reveal remarkable flexibility in
creating new jobs in response to jobs lost to the
forces of technological change and offshoring.
 Skills upgrading crucial as a long-term
strategy;
From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing, Conf. 2004
Self-assessments
 Analyze your own performance and find ways to
improve. We will use SII analysis..
– Strength, Improvements, Insights
 Plus a team assessment with similar analysis but
also dividing points. This is NOT shared with
your team.
Strengths
 Strengths—identify the ways in which a
performance was of high quality and
commendable. Each strength statement should
address what was valuable in the performance,
why this attribute is important, and how to
reproduce it. Always find one, and list it first.
Improvements
 Areas for Improvement—identify the changes that
can be made in the future, to improve
performance. Improvements should recognize the
issues that caused any problems and mention how
changes could be implemented to resolve these
difficulties. Can always define one.
Insights
 Insights—identify new and significant
discoveries/ understandings that were gained
concerning the performance area;. Insights
include why a discovery/new understanding is
important or significant and how it can be applied
to other situations. Not a required element.