Smoke Management & Agricultural Burn Forecasting
Dar Mims, Meteorologist
Air Resources Board
Presented to the Basinwide Control
Council on December 11, 2014
Presentation Outline
• Background and Operational Design
• Data Evaluation and Program Management
• PM 2.5 Relationships and Program Adaptations
2
Operational Program and Analysis Methods
Analyze the meteorological, transport, and air quality data
• large-scale aloft patterns
• surface weather patterns
• winds throughout the Sacramento
Valley
• atmospheric stability
• PM2.5 data
• surface temperatures
• mixing heights
• clouds, fog, and precipitation
• potential transport to counties
Sacramento Valley - Colusa 2000
San Joaquin Valley - Fresno 1999
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Month
PM2.5
10 11 12
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
PM2.5
9
10
11
12
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Month
Month
PM10
Sacramento Valley - Sacramento 2000
Concentration (ug/m3)
Max. 24-hour
Concentration (ug/m3)
Max. 24-hour
Concentration (ug/m3)
160
140
Ridg
e
PM10
PM2.5
PM10
5
Conservative Burn Management
 Districts shall use air quality and meteorological data provided
to assist them in making decisions as to where in their burning
management zones and when, within the authorized burn
hours, to allow burning.
 Districts shall employ extra caution in allowing burning upwind
and adjacent to urban areas, airports, and major roadways.
Districts shall distribute their allocated acreage among their
burning management zones to minimize emission densities
and protect down wind urban areas.
Numerical Modeling
Mathematical representations of processes that affect air pollution
A system of models to simulate emission transport, diffusion, transformation,
and removal
Modeled
Reality
7
Program Improvements - Data Analysis
Data Analysis Results
Burn days are over 90% since the1982 program change, with the noted exception
of 2008. In other words, better programmatic understanding has led to more
burning opportunities.
Questions
Rural Northern California
2004-2006 Peak Day Composition
Chico
Urban Southern California
California/Mexico Border
2004-2006 Peak Day Composition
LA-North Main
2004-2006 Peak Day Composition
Calexico
Geological
1% ElementsAmmNitrate
2%
16%
Elements
Geological 3%
EC 3%
EC
3%
Elements
8%
Geological
12%
5%
AmmNitrate
22%
AmmSulfate
2%
AmmSulfate
6%
EC
4%
OC
26%
AmmNitrate
43%
OC
76%
Wood smoke dominated
AmmSulfate
20%
Combustion source
dominated
OC
48%
Dust, smoke, and
combustion