The World’s 15 ‘Oldest’ Countries and the U.S.
Percent Age 65 or Older
Japan
Italy
Germany
Greece
Sweden
Bulgaria
Belgium
Portugal
Spain
Estonia
Latvia
Croatia
France
United Kingdom
Finland
United States
Sources: Carl Haub, 2006 World Population Data Sheet.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
19.5
19.5
18.6
17.8
17.3
17.2
17.1
17.0
16.9
16.7
16.5
16.4
16.4
16.0
16.0
12.4
Notes on the World’s 15 ‘Oldest’ Countries and the U.S.
• Except for Japan, the world’s 15 oldest countries are all in Europe.
• The U.S. population is relatively “young” by European standards, with less than 13 percent age
65 or older, ranking as the 38th oldest country.
• The aging of the baby-boom generation in the United States will push the proportion of older
Americans to 20 percent by 2030; it will still be lower than in most Western European countries.
• The older share of the population is expected to more than double between 2000 and 2030 in
Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Aging is occurring more slowly in sub-Saharan
Africa, where relatively high birth rates are keeping the population “young.”
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Speed of Population Aging in Selected Countries
Number of Years for Percent of Population Age 65 or Older to Rise
from 7% to 14%
More developed countries
France
1865-1980
Sweden
1890-1975
Australia
1938-2011
United States
1944-2013
Canada
1944-2009
Hungary
1941-1994
Poland
1966-2013
United Kingdom
Less developed countries
115
41
Azerbaijan 2000-2041
Chile 1998-2025
27
China 2000-2026
26
Jamaica 2008-2033
25
Tunisia 2008-2032
24
Sri Lanka 2004-2027
23
47
Thailand 2003-2025
22
1930-1975
45
Brazil 2011-2032
21
Spain
1947-1995
45
Colombia 2017-2037
20
Japan
1970-1996
Singapore 2000-2019
19
85
73
69
65
53
26
* Dates show the span of years when percent of population age 65 or older rose (or is projected to rise) from 7
percent to 14 percent.
Source: K. Kinsella and Y.J. Gist, Older Workers, Retirement, and Pensions: A Comparative International Chartbook
(1995) and K. Kinsella and D. Phillips, “The Challenge of Global Aging,” Population Bulletin 60, no. 1 (2005).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Speed of Population Aging
• Aging has proceeded more gradually in more developed countries than in less developed
countries, affording these nations time to adjust to this structural change. Japan is the major
exception, doubling its percent of population age 65 or older in just 26 years. Other countries in
East and Southeast Asia (especially China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand) are on a
similarly rapid trajectory, fueled by dramatic and relatively recent drops in fertility.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Percent Widowed
Among Older Australians, Malaysians, and Croatians, Circa 2000
Australia, 2001
Malaysia, 2000
Croatia, 2000
74
69
61
47
28
25
23
10
7
65-74
24
12
5
75+
5
55-64
Age
65-74
75+
Age
Men
55-64
65-74
Age
Women
Source: Compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau from national sources.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
28
24
11
2
55-64
46
75+
Notes on Percent Widowed
• For both men and women, the proportion married decreases with older age and the proportion
widowed increases.
• In almost every society, older men are more likely to be married and older women are more
likely to be widowed. Gender differences in marital status reflect the interplay of several factors,
for example, women live longer than men; women tend to marry men older than themselves,
which, combined with the sex difference in life expectancy, increases the chance that a woman’s
husband will die before she does; and older widowed men have higher remarriage rates than
older widowed women in many countries, often as a function of cultural norms.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Older Canadians Living Alone, 1961 to 2001
Age 65 or Older
In Thousands
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
Men
Source: Statistics Canada, national census data.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
1981
1986
Women
1991
1996
2001
Notes on Older Canadians Living Alone
• In Canada, the increase in the number of older people living alone has largely been fueled by
women. This increase reflects several trends: women live longer than men; women tend to marry
older men, which, combined with the sex difference in life expectancy, increases the chance that
a woman’s husband will die before she does; older widowed men have higher remarriage rates
than older widowed women in many countries, often as a function of cultural norms.
• Older-person-only households (especially unmarried women) are increasingly common.
However, the most common “older household” in many Western countries consists of two older
people.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Living Arrangements of Older Japanese
Percent
2010
40
42
56
1995
13
28
70
1980
Living with children*
12
18
With spouse only
8
7
87
1960
Alone
5
4
4
4 2
With others
Note: Includes small numbers living in unspecified arrangements
Sources: M. Atoh, “Who Takes Care of Children and the Elderly in an Aging Society?” (October 1998); and Japan
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, “Housing With Seniors: 1975-2010”
(www.jinjapan.org/insight/html/focus10/page08.html, accessed March 13, 2003).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Living Arrangements of Older Japanese
• In Japan, as well as in Hong Kong, China, and Korea, significant numbers of older people live
alone and the share living with children is falling rapidly. Multigenerational households have been
declining in more developed countries over the past several decades.
• At one time, living alone was thought to indicate social isolation or family abandonment of older
people. However, research in more developed countries consistently shows that older people
prefer to reside in their own homes and communities, even if that means living alone.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Women and Aging
Projected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025
Percent
50
46
37
63
50
All Ages
54
Ages 60+
Ages 80+
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Men
Women
Notes on Women and Aging
• The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although
women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will
account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old
people (80 and older).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Trends in Aging, by World Region
Population Ages 65 and Older
Percent
21
14
11
10
7
6
3
World
10
6
4
Africa
Asia
2000
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More Developed
Regions
2025
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region
• By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and
older.
• By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be age 65 or older.
• Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in
2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years:
from about 216 million to about 480 million older people.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Aging in China
Percent of Elderly (65+) in China’s Population, 1950-2050
25
20
15
10
5
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
2020
2030
2040
2050
Notes on Aging in China
• Due to vast improvements in health over the past five decades, life expectancy at birth has
increased by two-thirds from 40.8 to 71.5 years between 1955 and 2005.
• The percent of elderly in China is projected to triple from 8 percent to 24 percent between 2006
and 2050.
• Because chronic health problems become more common in old age, China’s population aging
has led to increases in the country’s prevalence of chronic disease and disability.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
China’s Age Distribution
Population Structures by Age and Sex
Millions
1950
Male
15
10
5
2000
Female
0
5
10
2050
Age
Age
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
15
Male
15
10
Female
5
0
5
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
10
15
Male
15
10
Female
5
0
5
10
15
Notes on China’s Age Distribution
• This figure illustrates China’s shrinking young and working-age population and growing elderly
population.
• Dramatic fertility decline (due to the success of the “one-child” policy) and improved longevity
over the past two decades are causing China’s population to age at one of the fastest rates ever
recorded.
• China now faces the prospect of having too few children to support its rapidly aging population.
Meeting the health and long-term care needs of this growing elderly population will result in
soaring health care costs and fewer working-age people to share the burden.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau