Voting Behavior & Elections
How Does The Census Fit In?
Case Study: 2012 Election
• Here are three states followed by the portion of the
presidential vote Obama won in 2012, followed by
the Republican-Democratic breakdown of each
state's House delegation chosen in the same
election.
– Ohio/51 percent/12 (R)-4 (D)
– Pennsylvania/52 percent/13 (R)-5 (D)
– Michigan/54 percent/9 (R)-5 (D)
• Totaling the three, that's 34 Republican House
members to 14 Democrats coming out of three
states that Obama carried…how is this possible?
• 2012: Republicans lost popular vote for House of
Rep. by 1.1 million votes…but held onto a 234-201
margin in the House…How?
Gerrymandering and the Winner
Take All System
2010
• The Census: Done Every 10 Years…Why?
– Overall Population Count
– Apportion Federal Funding to States for
Social/Economic Programs
– Demographics
• What areas in the U.S. are currently experiencing largest
growth?
– Reapportionment…what is it?
• Reallocation of 435 seats in the House of Representatives
based on changes in residency/population found in census
• Increase/decrease state’s electoral vote
• Increase/decrease state’s influence in Congress
Reapportionment
How Might This Influence Future Presidential Elections?
Congressional Elections?
Minority Majority
• How will Texas changing demographics
influence the vote…
• Growing Latino vote changing state from solid
red to becoming more “purple”…might we see
a shift to blue in 50 years? Why or why not?
Congressional Redistricting
• How is Redistricting related to Reapportionment?
– Redrawing of district lines w/in states based on
allocated # of seats…result of Reapp. (H.o.R. Districts)
• What Role Do State Legislatures Play?
• Why does the “majority party” that controls state
legislature have a major advantage?
– Redraw Lines to their party’s advantage
– Strategies?
• Concentrate Opponents in a minimal # of districts; disperse
opponents etc…
What Are These Things?
Gerrymandering
• Gerrymandering
– Drawing of district lines to give
an electoral majority to 1 party
in a large # of districts; while
limiting opposition
• Goals:
– Strengthen pol. party/ minimize
strength of opposition
– Protect incumbents (or hurt
opposing incumbents)
– Increase or decrease minority
representation
– Punish foes/enemies
Colbert: Alpha Dog of the Week
Reapportionment: Piecing It Together
• Constitutional Limits: Baker v. Carr; Wesberry
v. Sanders; Shaw v. Reno
– “One Man, One Vote”
• Must be equal in population
• Race can’t be sole factor (strict scrutiny)
• Can’t dilute minority voting strength
• Additional Limits
– Districts must be contiguous
• What constitutional principle is this process of
reapportionment/ congressional redistricting
an example of? Explain.
Reforming Congressional
Redistricting
• What might be some criticisms/problems of
Congressional Redistricting/Gerrymandering?
Gerrymandering: American Horror Story
• Are there any solutions that might make this
system more democratic?
– Move away from single member-plurality
districts?
– Have courts/non-partisan commissions draw
congressional districts? Excellent Gerrymandering Clip
NBC Nightly News
– Splitlining
Fairvote.org Redistricting
Selecting a President
• Great Debate at the Constitutional Convention
– Mini Simulation
– Option 1: Congress Chooses the President
• Why Not?
– Option 2: Popular Vote
• Would this option be the most democratic?
– Option 3: Voting by State
• Which states would be against this?
Electoral College
• How many electoral votes does a state get?
– One for each representative and senator (total # in
Congress)
• Electoral College
– Delegates selected by each party at state
conventions to vote for Pres./VP…who’s selected?
– Typically vote along with the state’s popular vote
– Most states: Winner Take All System
• How many votes must a candidate receive?
– 270/538
– What if no candidate wins a majority? Who votes?
• Why?
Electoral College
– Who does this benefit?
– Distrust for democracy
• Criticisms
– Potential for a tie
• How did the 12th Amendment Address This?
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Winner of popular vote may not win
Faithless Electors
Disproportionate attention given to swing states
Winner Take All System discourages 3rd parties
May decrease voter turnout (i.e. Dem. In Utah)
Disprop. Power to small states
• WY: 1/190,000 v. CA: 1/690,000
• Electoral College reflects which constitutional principle?
Solutions to Electoral College
• Does the Electoral College need to be
reformed, abolished, or remain unchanged?
• Why haven’t we changed systems?
Colbert: Win, Lose, Redraw
Voter Registration
• How is the voter registration process an example of
Federalism? Why Register?
• How have amendments reduced states control over a
citizens right to vote?
• Basic Restrictions from Federal Government
– If can vote for st. leg., can vote in nat’l elections
– Can’t deprive b/c of race: _____ Amendment
• Why was this an ineffective solution?
– Can’t deprive b/c of gender: _____ Amendment
– Citizens of D.C. can vote in Pres. Elections ____ Amendment
– Can’t require a poll tax: _____ Amendment
– Can’t deprive 18 or older: _____ Amendment
Qualifications Set by State
• Citizenship
– U.S. Citizen
• Residence
– IN—must live in precinct 29 days
• Registration
– IN must be registered 29 days before election
• Criminal Records
– Most felons are denied right to vote
– Is voting an inalienable right that can’t be taken?
History of Registration
• Voting Rights Act of 1965:
– Prohibits any govt. from using voting procedures that
deny right to vote on basis of race/color (Preclearance)
– Outlaws literacy tests
– People eligible to vote in all elections
– Fed. Govt. power to register voters (Fed. Registrars)
• Motor Voter Law:
– Make it easier to register…permit people to register
while applying for license
– Minimal effect
• Increased # Registered, NOT VOTING
A Case Study
• U.S. Voting History
– 15th, 19th, 24th Amendments
– Voting Discrimination
• Judicial Preclearance
– Florida v. Jardines
• Voter ID Laws
– Everything You've Ever Wanted to Know about
Voter ID Laws
– Discuss
Daily Show: Voter ID Laws--N.C.
Voter ID Discussion Prompts
• What are Voter ID Laws? What problems are Voter ID Laws intended to
prevent?
• Which demographics (types of people) are least likely to have an
acceptable ID (under Voter ID Laws) necessary for voting?
• Approximately how many Americans of voting age currently lack an
accepted ID, under current Voter ID laws?
• Does “in-person voter ID fraud” appear to be a big enough problem in the
United States to justify Voter ID Laws? Must have statistical evidence to
support your position.
• Do you believe with the argument made by some that Voter ID Laws are a
new form of poll tax or voting restrictions designed to prevent certain
demographics from voting? Why or why not?
• How large of a role do you believe politics plays in the passage of Voter ID
Laws?
• Are these laws necessary? Justified? Why or why not?
Primary v. General Elections
• Primary Elections
– an election in which party members or voters select
from candidates within a party to determine who will
run in the general election
– Narrow candidates for office (1/party)
• General Election
– an election in which all or most members of a given
political body are up for election.
– Opposing parties candidates run v. each other
– Determines who will hold the elected office
– Congressional v. Presidential Elections
• Recall Election
– Procedure by which voters can remove an elected
official from office through a direct vote before his or
her term has ended
Idaho Gubernatorial
Primary Debate
Citizen Legislators
• Initiative
– Means by which a petition signed by a certain
minimum number of registered voters can force
legislation onto a ballot for a public vote
• Referendum
– A direct vote in which an entire electorate is asked
to either accept or reject a particular proposal put
forward by the legislator.
Voter Turnout
• Why do people vote?
– See policy differences between the two parties
– High Political Efficacy
• Belief that ordinary people can influence government—
voting makes a difference
– Civic Duty
• Support democracy
• U.S. voter turnout compared to other Western
democracies?
– Very low; 60% Presidential Elec; 40 % off yr. elec.
Why Don’t People Vote
• Institutional Obstacles
– Registration/Residence Requirements
– Federalism: Too Many Elections?
– 2 Party System: Limits Choices
– Week Day; Non Holiday
– Single Day: 12 hour voting; costly
– Length/Complexity of Ballot
– No Penalty for Not Voting
– Winner Take All System
– Single Member, Plurality Disctricts
Why Don’t People Vote?
• Other Factors
– Apathy
– Dealignment:
• Decreasing party I.D.
• See no difference b/n parties
• Has led to increasing Split Ticket Voting
– Lack Efficacy: Don’t think vote counts
– History: Denial of right to vote socialized
– Lack Knowledge
Who Votes? Dale Peterson Campaign Ad
• SES/Educated: Higher SES/Education
• Income: More income…more likely to vote
• Age: Older individuals more likely to vote
– Voter turnout ↓slightly for those over age 70
– Turnout lowest among 18-24 year olds
• Race: Afr. Amer/Hispanics under-rep. among voters
– HOWEVER, when effects of income/education are eliminated,
minorities vote at higher rates than whites citizens
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Gender: Women more likely; Gender Gap (Democrat)
Marital Status: Married more likely
Religious: Regular Churchgoer more likely
Region: Northerners more likely than Southerners
Stronger Party Identification…more likely to vote
Trends
• Party ID, Candidate Image, Policy Voting
• More Split Ticket Voting Now
– Why?
• Result of DEALIGNMENT; weakening party ID
• Incumbency Advantage…what is it?
– Yet when severe economic troubles, incumbents
tend to suffer
• Voter Turnout Low; participation high?
– Low voter turnout a sign of satisfaction?
• Why people vote v. Why people don’t
– Activists/Ideologues?
Participation
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Vote—Most Common
Run for Office
Campaign
Donate $; Form a Pol. Action Committee (PAC)
Join Interest Group
Write letters to editor/representatives
Unconventional
– Protest; Civil Disobedience
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/423114/january-22-2013/theword---win--lose--or-redraw
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/423163/january-232013/alpha-dog-of-the-week---virginia-state-senate-republicans