Economics An Introduction & Review of Some Basic Economic Principles for Joules To Dollars J2$ Frederick Soddy • Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1921 for his work on radioactivity • Inspired the field of ecological economics • Became dismayed with the Chemistry as a discipline about the time of WWI and turned to economics, specifically political economy • Ideas were generally discredited at that time, but in fact he was an early proponent of abandoning the gold standard, market-determined foreign exchange rates, fiscal policy as a tool for stabilizing the macroeconomy, and government agencies responsible for collecting and reporting economic statistics. • Also argued against fractional-reserve banking. Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Circular Flow Chart of the Macroeconomy A Traditional View Income Factor Payments Factor Pmts Private Saving & Borrowing Households J2$ Markets for Factors of Production Taxes Net of Transfer Pmts Borrowing & Saving Financial Markets Govt Borrowing Taxes Net of Subsidies Government Govt Purchases Borrowing & Saving Imports Rest of the World Exports Consumption Investment Market for Goods & Services Firms Revenue Costanza, R., June 2001. Bioscience, Vol. 51, No. 6 Model of An Ecological Economic System Positive Impacts on Human Capital Capacity Restoration, Conservation Education, Training, Research Institutional Rules, Norms, etc. Building Complex Property Rights Regimes Consu mption Individual | Common | Public Natural Capital Human Capital Social Capital Manufactured Capital Limited Substitutability Between Capital Forms Solar Energy Well Being (Individual & Community) Ecological Services / Amenities J2$ (Based on Changing, Adapting Preferences) Wastes Economic Production Process GNP Goods & Services Evolving Cultural Norms & Policy Inves tment Negative Impacts on All Forms of Capital Decisions about taxes, community spending, education, science and technology, etc., based on complex property rights regimes Waste Heat Soddy & Energy Economics • Interpretive questions? • Why were Soddy’s ideas dismissed by academics, policy makers, and financiers? • Is debt a bad thing when it’s tied to energy efficiency or improvements in ecosystem services? • “Energy and the U.S. Economy” was written at a time of energy crises; how might the relationships between energy and the economic performance be different today? J2$ Review of Microeconomics Glossary of terms, concepts, and solution methods J2$ J2$ Comparing Benefits & Costs • Assume a linear world • Typically, people will purchase less of a good or service (including ecosystem services) the higher the price Suppose at $5/bag… $ Price $25 Consider buying “nut” coal to use in your wood stove You’d buy 10 bags Demand But if the price were $25/bag you wouldn’t buy any coal $5 10 Quantity J2$ Total Benefits • Economists typically use your total willingness to pay to define total benefits • We add up the amount you’re willing to pay for the first, second, … , ninth and tenth bags of coal We calculate the area under the demand curve $ Price $25 (½ x 10 x 20) + (5 x 10) = $150 $5 10 Quantity Market Demand • Market demand curves for consumer goods and services are simply the sum of individual demand curves • Note that while our theory tells us that demand depends on price: Q = f(P) • We graph the inverse form of the demand curve: P = g(Q) • We do this because of an assumption that price adjusts in order to equilibrate demand with supply, i.e., price determines quantity J2$ J2$ Total Costs • Suppose the cost of producing a bag of nut coal looks like this • In general, total cost will be equal to variable costs plus fixed costs • Total variable cost is the sum of the marginal costs • Let’s assume zero fixed cost • So total cost will be the sum of the marginal costs $ Price $15 10 Quantity J2$ Net Benefits $ Price • Net benefit is the amount by which benefits exceed costs • The area under the demand curve that lies above the cost (supply) curve Net Benefit Quantity Cost-Benefit Analysis J2$ • Most of the decisions you make involve weighting costs against benefits • Opportunity Cost plays an important role in these calculations Defn: that which we forgo, or give up, when we make a choice or a decision • Costs and Benefits generally accrue over time • Dynamic, rather than a static, decision • Examples: Colby’s bioimass plant, new solar array on the top of the alumini/development building, purchasing a new car, insulating your home. Dynamic Analysis J2$ • Which is worth more: $100 today or $100 tomorrow? Why? • Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money • Plus, $100 today represents an opportunity to ‘invest’ … • … earning a rate of return [e.g., interest on savings] … • … and thus increasing your purchasing power in the future J2$ Present Value Suppose you put your $100 in a bank account earning 10% interest annually One year from now you’d have $110 in your account: 100×(1+.10) The value today of the $110 you’d realize a year from now is $100 [110/(1.10)] Suppose you left the money in your bank account for two years, earning 10% interest in each year • After two years you would have $121 [100×1.10×1.10] • • • • • The present value of the $121 you’d realize in two years is $100 121 1.10 2 J2$ Net Present Value • The present value of a one-time net benefit received 𝑛 years from now is: 𝑁𝐵𝑛 𝑃𝑉 𝑁𝐵𝑛 = 1+𝑟 𝑛 • The present value of a stream of net benefits 𝑁𝐵0 , 𝑁𝐵1 , ⋯ , 𝑁𝐵𝑛 is: 𝑛 𝑁𝐵𝑖 𝑃𝑉 𝑁𝐵0 , ⋯ , 𝑁𝐵𝑛 = 1+𝑟 𝑖 𝑖=0 • Where 𝑟 is the appropriate interest rate J2$ Discounting the future • The process of calculating the present value of a future [net] benefit is also known as discounting • In this context, 𝑟 is the discount rate 𝑃𝑉 𝑁𝐵𝑛 • What about inflation? • 𝑟 is the real interest rate: nominal minus inflation 𝑁𝐵𝑛 = 1+𝑟 𝑛 J2$ Colby’s Biomass Facility Scenario A: Base Case Utility Relocations General Site and Utilities Building Equipment Soft Costs $ $ $ $ $ FY2011 550,000 373,000 2,779,000 $ 1,698,500 $ 1,367,000 FY2012 $ PV @ 5.5% $ 6,017,500 $ (5,280,500) 10,450,312 FY2041 2,779,000 1,698,500 Grant $ (750,000) Debt Proceeds $ (10,495,000) Debt Service Expenses (5.5%, 30 year) $ 737,000 Total Payments … … $ 737,000 … $ 737,000 Return to Supply & Demand Analysis Equilibrium J2$ J2$ Static Equilibrium • Notice that no one is willing to supply coal at $5 per bag • At $5/bag there exists excess demand • In most situations this will cause an increase in the price of coal • Similarly, at $25/bag there is an excess supply of coal • In most situations this will cause a decrease in the price of coal • Price will adjust to resolve excess demand and supply $ Price $25 Pe $5 Qe Quantity Elasticity • We measure the responsiveness of demand to changes in price using the elasticity • We say that a good is inelastic if a change in price has very little effect on demand • Elastic goods and services are those for which small changes in price have a large impact on the quantity demanded J2$ %Δ𝑄 𝜂= %Δ𝑃 J2$ Inelastic vs Elastic $ Price $ Price Inelastic Elastic DP DP DQ Quantity DQ Quantity How do you remember the difference? nelastic J2$ lastic J2$ Modeling Supply & Demand • Demand function - determinants • • • • + - - Price of the good or service Price of substitutes & compliments Income Preferences (stochastic term) • Supply side • • • • Price 𝑆 𝑃; 𝑊, 𝐴 Pe Price of the good or service Factor prices (wages, energy costs) Advertising/Marketing Unanticipated events (stochastic term) - + - + 𝐷 𝑃; 𝑃𝑠 , 𝑃𝑐 , 𝑌 Qe Quantity Moving along a curve vs shifts in a curve • Changes in the quantity demanded of a good or service that result from a change in its price are reflected by reequilibrating movements along a demand curve • Similarly, changes in the quantity supplied resulting from changes in the price of a good or service are reflected by movements along the supply curve J2$ Price 𝑆 𝑃; 𝑊, 𝐴 Pe 𝐷 𝑃; 𝑃𝑠 , 𝑃𝑐 , 𝑌 Qe Quantity J2$ Exogenous changes • Changes in factors determined outside our model will redefine the (P, Q) relationship resulting in a new demand or supply curve • We draw our demand/supply relationships for pre-determined values of our explanatory variables • Consider a ceteris paribus increase in income from Y0 to Y1 Price 𝑆 𝑃; 𝑊, 𝐴 Pe 𝐷 𝑃; 𝑃𝑠 , 𝑃𝑐 , 𝑌0 Qe 𝐷 𝑃; 𝑃𝑠 , 𝑃𝑐 , 𝑌1 Quantity J2$ Equilibrium adjustment • At the prevailing price, Pe, there exists excess demand for this good • This will put upward pressure on the price • Higher prices attracts more supply • And reduces demand • The price will continue to rise until the excess demand is gone and the market reaches a new equilibrium Price 𝑆 𝑃; 𝑊, 𝐴 Pnew Pe 𝐷 𝑃; 𝑃𝑠 , 𝑃𝑐 , 𝑌0 𝐷 𝑃; 𝑃𝑠 , 𝑃𝑐 , 𝑌1 Qe Qnew Qexd Quantity