May the Force Be With You:
Understanding Market Forces
and How They are Relevant to Planning
Becky Knudson: Household Travel Demand
Denise Whitney: Land Use Development
Christina Fera-Thomas: Traffic Flow
Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning
Conference 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
May the Force Be With You:
Understanding Market Forces
and How They are Relevant to Planning
Becky Knudson: Household Travel Demand
Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning
Conference 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Overview
• Households as economic engines
– Participate in “activities”
• Budgets constrain activity levels
– Multiple needs to satisfy within a budget
• Activity generates travel
– Travel is a derived demand
• Land use attracts travel
– Business location affects travel patterns
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Households are Economic Engines
• Households participate in
activities
– Provide labor for production
– Spend income to purchase
goods and services
• Activities generate travel
– Trips to work
– Trips to shop
– Trips for recreation
– Trips for HH production
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household Consumption is 70% of Economy
Labor
Income
Travel
Demand
Derived from
Household
Activity
Buy Goods &
Services
Produce
Consumption
Goods
Recreation
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household Activity Constrained by Budget
• Households adapt spending patterns
• Shift spending from one category to
another to meet their goals
• Consumer Expenditure Survey provides a
look into household budgets and spending
patterns
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey
• Bureau of Labor Statistics sponsored
• Conducted by Census Bureau annually
– Diary survey – two weeks, and
– Interview survey – previous three months
• Used to construct the
Consumer Price Index
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Budget Categories & Results
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•
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Housing
Household operations
Transportation
Food
Utilities
Health care
Apparel
Entertainment
Misc.
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006
Household Spending by Budget Category
Entertainment 5%
Misc. 8%
Apparel, etc. 4%
Food 1 2%
Health Care 6%
Transport 1 7 %
Housing 33%
HH Ops 8%
Utilities 7 %
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006
Household Spending by Budget Category
Housing costs include: rent, mortgage
principle and interest, property tax,
5%
maintenance,Entertainment
and insurance.
Misc. 8%
Apparel, etc. 4%
Year
2000
Health
Care 6%housing was 31% of
disposable income
Food 1 2%
Transport 1 7 %
HH Ops 8%
Utilities 7 %
Housing
33%
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006
Household Spending by Budget Category
Entertainment
5%
Utility costs include: electricity, natural
Misc.
8%
telephone,
water
Apparel, etc. 4%gas, heating oil,
Food 12%
Health Care 6%
Year 2000 utilities were 6% of disposable
income
Transport 17%
Housing 33%
HH Ops 8%
Utilities 7%
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006
Household Spending by Budget Category
Entertainment
5%
Apparel, etc. 4%
Misc. 8%
Food 12%
Health Care 6%
Food costs include: food out of
home and food at home
Transport 17%
Year 2000 was 13% of budget
Year
food
food
2000
at8%
home food was 59% of
HH Ops
budget, YearUtilities
2006 7%
is was 56% of
budget
Housing 33%
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006
Household Spending by Budget Category
Entertainment 5%
Apparel, etc. 4%
Health Care 6%
Misc. 8%
Transportation
costs
Food 1include:
2%
vehicle purchase, fuel & oil,
maintenance and repair,
financing, insurance, licensing
Year 2000 vehicle purchase was
46%, Year 2006 it was 40%
Transport
17%
HH Ops 8%
Year 2000 gas & oil were 17%,
Housing 33%
Year 2006 they were 26%
Utilities 7 %
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household Activity Can be Simulated
• Household surveys provide information
used to create models representing
regional travel patterns
– Oregon Household Activity Survey 2008
• Travel demand models and traffic
simulations are tools designed to
represent household travel behavior
– THE MODELS WORK! Analysis conducted by
TPAU over ten years ago accurately predicted
travel patterns we observe today
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Land Use Affects Household Travel
Households travel …
to businesses to work, shop, eat…
Land use patterns affect travel
•Housing density
•Business locations
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards
(Sacramento, CA Area)
• 5200 acre site on edge of UGB
• Three alternative proposals
– “Blueprint” higher density alternative with
21,000 households
– Two lower density alternatives with 14,000
households
• Designed to evaluate “Where will the
growth go and what are the effects?”
Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected
Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5th Oregon Symposium on
Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards
(Sacramento, CA Area)
• 5200 acre site on edge of UGB
•PLACE3S, an acronym for PLAnning for
• Three
alternative
proposals
Community
Energy, Economic
and Environmental
Sustainability,higher
is an innovative
method with
– “Blueprint”
densityplanning
alternative
that fully integrates focused public participation,
21,000
households
community
development and design, and
computer-assisted
quantification
tools (GIS)
help
– Two
lower density
alternatives
withto14,000
communities produce plans that retain dollars in
households
•
the local economy, save energy, attract jobs and
Designed
to evaluate
“Where
development,
reduce pollution
and trafficwill the
congestion
and conserve
growth
go and
whatopen
arespace.
the effects?”
•http://www.energy.ca.gov/places/
Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected
Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5th Oregon Symposium on
Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards
(Sacramento, CA Area)
• 5200 acre site on edge of UGB
• Three alternative proposals
– “Blueprint” higher density alternative with
21,000 households
– Two lower density alternatives with 14,000
households
• Designed to evaluate “Where will the
growth go and what are the effects?”
Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected
Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5th Oregon Symposium on
Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Higher density: 21K households
2 Lower density scenarios: 14K households
Daily VMT: 920K (18% - 22% lower)
7K households placed in most likely area
Person trips bike/walk/transit: 8%
Daily VMT: 1120K - 1180K (22% - 28% higher)
Person trips private auto: 91%
Person trips bike/walk/transit: 4.8% - 5.3%
DVMT per HH: 43
Person trips private auto: 93.5% - 93.9%
DVMT per HH: 55
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Results from Sacramento Study
• Higher density land use resulted in
–
–
–
–
Less VMT
Fewer emissions
More bike/walk/transit
Provided more green space
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Conclusions
• Each household represents a unique set of
activities and strategies designed to
satisfy needs and desires
• Effective transportation planning supports
household activity while conserving public
resources
BUT
• Households represent one piece of the
travel puzzle – trip generators
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Land Use Development
• Business attracts activity
–
–
–
–
Workers
Customers
Shipping goods/services
Receiving goods/services
• Land use patterns are
determined by another
set of market forces
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
May the Force Be With You:
Understanding Market Forces
and How They are Relevant to Planning
Denise Whitney: Land Use Development
Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning
Conference 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household & Employment Activities Need to Be Located
Labor
Income
Buy Goods &
Services
Produce
Consumption
Goods
Recreation
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Where Land Use and Real Estate Development Begin:
Opportunity to Meet Market Need
Property Owner
Land Speculator
Predeveloper
(private or public)
Land/Real Estate
Developer
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Developers Juggle Many Considerations
Public
Development
Team
Clients:
users
investors
buyers
Market
Forces
Viable
Location(s)
Local &
State
Govt.
Project Idea:
opportunity
to meet need
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Market Forces (national, regional)
• Employment and industry trends
• Population and demographic trends
• Real estate market trends
• Development trends
• Capital markets
• Commodities markets
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Viable Location (factors in site selection)
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Physical features
Transportation
Price of the land
Zoning
Utilities
Government services/costs
Local attitudes
Local market forces
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Considerations by Development Type
Industrial
•
•
•
•
•
Transportation linkages (shipping time is money)
Adequate site size and configuration with room to grow
Utilities with sufficient capacity to handle requirements
Avoiding conflicting land uses
Proximity to resources and housing
• Accessible and desirable location
• Adequate site size and configuration to meet
building design and parking needs
• Access to technological infrastructure
Office
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Considerations by Development Type
• Sufficient population/households with right income
and demographic mix within market area
• Visibility and traffic (pedestrian or auto)
• Accessible site of sufficient size
Retail
•
•
•
•
Amenities such as neighborhood parks and schools
Availability of transit
Proximity to freeway access and/or employment nodes
Proximity to shopping districts
Residential
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Project Feasibility and the Bottom Line
Condominium Pro Forma
Retail Trade Area – Market Study
Bottom Line: Does it pencil?
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
A Project Occurs Only if Pieces Come Together
within Developers Planning Time Frame
People
Location
Financing &
Feasibility
Market Need
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Understanding Market Forces & Development
Basics Makes for More Effective Planning
Incentives – Work best when project is close to being feasible and
incentive can nudge it into profitable range.
Zoning – Can be more effective when recognizing desirability of locations
and site needs by development type.
Fee Structures – That recognize developers need for certainty upfront
are more likely to capture funds without inhibiting growth.
Community Expectations – Can be more realistic when market influences
on development/redevelopment are acknowledged.
Transportation Facilities – Understanding the influence of market forces on
land use and travel patterns leads to better
transportation facility planning.
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
May the Force Be With You:
Understanding Market Forces
and How They are Relevant to Planning
Market Forces Affect Traffic Flow
Christina Fera-Thomas
Transportation Analyst
Transportation Planning Analysis Unit
September 12th 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
ODOT Responsibility to Maintain
State-Owned Facilities
• Improve safety
• Maintain an efficient roadway system
• Meet FHWA standards and guidelines
for highways on the interstate system
• Provide Connectivity
– Throughout the state
– To local areas
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
ODOT Responsibility to Maintain
State-Owned Facilities-cont’
• Move goods and people efficiently
• Consider all modes: auto, bicycle,
pedestrian, rail, ect
• Improve livability to communities
• Support for economic prosperity and
opportunities
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Overview of the Analysis Process
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Determine Study Area
Collect data
Develop Volumes
Analyze Alternatives
40
400
855
390
85
90
405
70
35
795
45
20
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Determine Study Area
• Generally larger than the project area
because:
– Nearby facilities may be affected
– Roadways outside of immediate project
area may end up being part of a build
alternative
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Determine Study Area
Project Area
Study Area
Interchange
Count Locations
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Collect Data
• Obtain Signal Timing Sheets
• Collect field inventory
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–
–
–
–
Lane/crosswalk/shoulder widths
Turn bay lengths
Detector positions
Signal Operation
Miscellaneous observations
• Request Counts
– Full Classification
– 16 hour
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Develop Volumes
Design Hour Volumes
• Seasonally adjust (if necessary)
• Apply Growth Factor (if necessary)
– Historical
– Model
• Balance System
40
400
855
390
85
90
405
70
35
795
45
20
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Develop Volumes
Future Volumes/Build Volumes
• Apply Growth Factor
– Historical
– Model
– Cumulative
• Balance
• Create build model scenario if:
– Model is available
– Traffic patterns will be affected
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Analyze Alternatives
• Use of Synchro/Simtraffic or comparable
software
• Compare performance of no-build and
build alternatives to mobility standards
• Determine lengths of
queues and their
affect on the system
• Report additional
performance
measures
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Case Study - Home Depot
• Home Depot Built within the project area
– First Home Depot in Model Area as well as the
county
• Only one other Home Improvement Superstore
within the model area
• Will pull trips from the entire model area and
beyond
– Model Scenarios will need to include Home Depot
which will show:
• Any increase of trips within the study area
• How trips have been redistributed amongst the
major roadways into the study area
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Case Study - Home Depot
• Model Outputs would be used to create
new volumes that include the
development
• Analysis of the new volumes would
show the affect Home Depot has on
the system
• Depending on the affects; the
developer may be required to assist
with the project costs
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Case Study - Home Depot
8 Miles
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Questions?
Answers:
Becky Knudson
Rebecca.a.knudson@odot.state.or.us
Denise Whitney
Denise.d.whitney@odot.state.or.us
Christina Fera-Thomas
Christina.a.fera-thomas@odot.state.or.us
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division