ISNS 4359 Earthquakes and Volcanoes
(aka shake and bake)
Lecture 1: Introduction and overview of
natural disasters
Fall 2005
Logistics - description
Seismicity and volcanism are important expressions of earth processes
shape the planet and affect humankind in both beneficial and adverse
ways.
Volcanoes fascinate us
with their apparently calm majestic peaks
potential power for calamitous destruction.
Volcanoes and earthquakes
can induce great floods of mud and massive tsunami
,
crush and bury cities,
even degrade global climate.
Description
Volcanoes are also benevolent,
ultimately the source
for much of the water in our oceans and lakes,
the air we breathe,
fertile soil for growing coffee and vineyards,
new land in tropical paradise settings,
renewable geothermal and hydroelectric power,
building materials, gems, metals,
ski slopes, and scenic beauty.
Description
This course provides a broad overview of the science behind earthquakes
and volcanoes,
new insights
about the architecture, processes, and evolution of the earth
their impact on humankind and other organisms.
The plate tectonics model
provides the central framework in which the many aspects of
earthquakes and volcanoes are described.
Logistics - scope
This course provides
a description of relevant natural phenomena,
impacting the world’s cultures
observation methods,
quantification measures,
causes, models, theories, hazards, prediction,
Logistics - scope
There are two 75 minute-long lectures per week with as
active student discussion as possible,
supplemented by rocks, physical examples, web resources,
DVD videos, and computer projected images.
Graded assignments include problem sets, a current event
journal, and three tests and 5 pop quizzes..
Logistics - objectives
The main goals of this class
to increase awareness
develop an appreciation of the role of earthquakes and
volcanoes in our lives
provide a framework and explanation of these natural
phenomena,
basic information to assist the student
in making well-informed, safe, and wise lifedecisions.
Other desired objectives will also be considered.
Logistics - details
Instructor:
Dr. Carlos Aiken
Phone: 972-883-2450
Office: FO 2.224A
E-mail: aiken@utdallas.edu
Textbook: Natural Disasters by Patrick Abbott (2006, 5th edition,
though you can also get the older 4th edition, 2004). Published by
McGraw Hill.
I have ordered the book at the on-campus bookstore and at OffCampus Books. However, it may be cheaper through Amazon.com
($83.13).
Logistics - participation
Class Attendance & Participation: Attending class and actively participating
in it are highly recommended. Short (5-10 min) quizzes will be given at the
beginning of five random class meetings to provide extra credit, and motivate
attending class and reading the textbook (no make-ups). Class participation
includes asking intelligent questions during the Q&A portion of lectures or on
the WebCT discussion page, and contributing current events and humorous
items related to earthquakes and volcanoes in the news.
Reading assignments: Textbook readings are intended for study before class;
lectures will be given assuming a certain level of background and familiarity.
Readings and lectures do not necessarily cover identical materials; they are
intended to complement each other. The short quizzes will be taken from
previous lecture materials. Other book, journal, web and electronic resources
can be found on the links in the course WebCT homepage. Course content
includes the textbook and lecture materials. Handouts will be provided after
each class through WebCT to summarize class content and to fill any textbook
gaps.
Logistics - assessment
Problem Sets: Due by the end of class on the due date. No credit for late
assignments, unless special prior arrangements have been made with the
instructor. Two Journals (I & II) will be due by the end of class on dates in the
syllabus. Journals will deal with descriptions of 1 current earthquake or volcano
event per week over a 4 week period (including sketch maps and cross sections
describing the plate tectonic framework), following the assigned format.
Tests: Test materials will be taken both from the textbook (see discussion in
syllabus below), handouts, and lectures. Tests will include ~50 multiple choice,
fill in the blank, T/F, sketch/diagram, or short answer questions. A pre-test review
will take place during the class meeting prior to the test. Tests will be reviewed in
class approximately one week after they are given.
Test Make-up: Tests will not be taken at any time except during the scheduled inclass period, unless the instructor agrees to reschedule an individual's test as the
result of a prior agreement, or a doctor's excuse certifies the student was too ill to
attend class the day of the examination. If you have health problems, or
extenuating circumstances, please contact the instructor as soon as possible so
arrangements can be made.
Logistics - assessment
Grading: You can keep track of your grades by checking the course WebCT
page (link available on the UTD homepage or webct.utdallas.edu). The final
grade is based on the following percentile divisions A+: 97.1-100; A: 93.1-97;
A-: 90.1-93; B+: 87.1-90; B: 83.1-87; B-: 80.1-83; C+: 77.1-80; C: 73.1-77; C: 70.1-73, D=60.1-70, F<60. Short pop quizzes will be given in 5 random class
meetings and will serve as extra credit opportunities.
Logistics - assessment
Grading components:
(total 600 points)
3 tests, 100 points each
“Journals” (75 pts each)
2 Problem Sets, 25 points each
Class participation
Extra Credit 5 pop quizzes
300
150
100
50
50
(100%)
(50%)
(25%)
( 12%)
( 6%)
(up to +6%)
Logistics - your instructor
• I have been a geologist and a geophysicist
•work on potential fields (gravity and magnetics, electrical
methods) applied to resources, ground water, engineering
• Also in another life time was a seismologist, assistant to State
of Washington Seismologist
• Have been in many earthquakes, some famous (Seattle ’56,’66;
Alaska ’64; Parkfield, CA ’66).
Now I build 3D virtual photo real models of geology
Overview of Natural Disasters
2003 Natural Disasters
More than 83,000 people killed by natural disasters
in 2003
Bam, Iran earthquake: 41,000 people
Gujarat, India (2001): 20,000 people
Izmit, Turkey (1999): 19,000 people
Tangshan, China (1976): 240,000 people
European heat wave: more than 35,000 people
Unique event
Unprecedented temperatures, but probably more frequent
with global warming
Human Fatalities in Natural Disasters
Sawtooth-shaped curve caused by largest natural disasters
Biggest killers (in order): hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, severe weather,
landslides, volcanic eruptions, tornadoes and tsunami
Most mega-killer disasters occur in densely populated belt through Asia, along
Indian Ocean – number of fatalities is proportional to density of population
Effects on survivors
Increase in suicides
Increase in altruism
Economic Losses from Natural Disasters
Destruction and damage to structures, loss of productivity and wages
Increase in economic losses over time is result of increase in human population
and urbanization
Most expensive events caused by storms and occurred in U.S., Europe and Japan
Natural Hazards
Hazard exists even where disasters are infrequent
Evaluate site risk
Mitigation prior to event
Engineering, physical, social and political plans and actions
to reduce death and destruction from natural hazards
Mitigation after event
Rebuilding and re-inhabiting same site
Case history: Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico
• Eruptions in 822, 1519 and beginning again in 1994
• Currently 100,000 people living at base
Magnitude, Frequency, and Return Period
Inverse correlation between frequency (how often it occurs) and magnitude
(how big it is) of a process
Frequent occurrences are low in magnitude, rare occurrences are high in
magnitude
Small-scale activity is common, big events are rare
Larger the event, longer the return-period (recurrence interval)
Cost-benefit ratio can be considered in conjunction with return-period of given
magnitude event
The 20th Century Was Unique
Population growth at unprecedented and breathtaking
rate, doubling twice
Increased numbers of people in hazardous settings
Overview of Human Population History
Difficult to assess early human population growth
Human species ‘began’ approximately 160,000 years ago,
with a few thousand people
Human population grew to 6.3 billion people in 2003
Growth rate is exponential
IN THE 20th CENTURY
Population growth at unprecedented and breathtaking rate,
doubling twice
Increased numbers of people in hazardous settings
The Power of an Exponent of Growth
Visualize in terms of doubling time
Number of years for population to double
in size, given annual percentage growth
rate
Doubling time =
70
% growth rate/year
Example of interest paid on money
• Linear growth: $1000 + $100 / year
• Exponential growth: $1000 + 7% /
year
Example of water lily plant in pond
• Doubles in size every day
• Covers half the pond the day before it
covers the whole pond
The Last 10,000 Years of Human History
Flat population growth curve until 8,000
years ago
Agriculture established
Domestication of animals
Growth rate increased to 0.036%/year
By 2,000 years ago, population ~200
million people
Better shelter, food and water supplies
 faster population growth
Growth rate of 0.056%/year
By 1750, population ~800 million people
The Last 10,000 Years of
Human History
By 1750, population ~800 million people
Establishment of public health principles, causes of disease
recognized
Birth rates soared, death rates dropped
By 1810, population ~1 billion
By 1925, population ~2 billion
By 1960, population ~3 billion
By 1974, population ~4 billion
By 1987, population ~5 billion
By 1999, population ~6 billion
By 2012, projected population ~7 billion
The Human Population Today
Present population: (insert number)
Growth rate = 1.3%/year
Doubling time = 53 years
Growth rate =
fertility (birth) rate – mortality (death) rate
Future World Population
Demographic transition theory:
Mortality and fertility rates decline from high to low levels
because of economic and social development
Population Reference Bureau estimates world population
growth rates are dropping
From 1.8% in 1990 to 1.3% in 2003
Due to urbanization and increased opportunities for women
Future World Population
BUT population explosion continues
From 1950 to 2000 population grew from 2.5 billion to 6 billion
Growth rate of 1.3%/year means population of 9 billion in 2050
Consider no. of births / woman to predict 2150 population
Average 1.6 children/woman: 3.6 billion
Average 2 children/woman: 10.8 billion
Average 2.6 children/woman (current average): 27 billion
Mathematical Extrapolation
Too many people?
Crowding in cities
Crime
Pollution
Illegal migration
Disease
Room for more people?
Entire world population could fit inside 42 km x 42 km square
Consider carrying capacity
Carrying Capacity
How many people can Earth support?
Calculations of carrying capacity vary considerably
Increasing amounts of food can be produced
People can migrate from areas of famine or poverty to less
crowded or wealthier areas
BUT Earth’s resources are finite, so solutions are temporary