AP STATISTICS: Ms. Jetmore 2015-2016
Syllabus Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Day
Topic
Homework
M Oct 26
Sec 5.1 – Introduction, The Idea of Probability,
Myths about Randomness
p. 293; 1, 3, 7, 9, 11
Read p 281-293
T Oct 27
Sec 5.1 – Simulation
p. 295; 15, 17, 19, 23, 25
W Oct 28
Sec 5.1 – Simulation
p. 297; 27, 29, 31-36
Read p. 299-303
R Oct 29
Sec 5.2 – Probability Models, Basic Rules of
Probability
p. 309; 39, 41, 43, 45, 47
Read p. 303-308
F Oct 30
Sec 5.2 – Two-Way Tables and Probability,
Venn Diagrams and Probability
p. 310; 49, 51, 53, 55, 57-60
Review p. 281-308
M Nov 2
Review 5.1 and 5.2 – AP multiple choice
Quiz 5.1/5.2
Read p. 312-321
T Nov 3
Sec 5.3 – What is Conditional Probability?,
Conditional Probability and Independence, Tree
Diagrams and the General Multiplication Rule
p. 329; 63, 65, 67, 69, 73, 77,
79, 83, 85
Read p. 321-328
W Nov 4
Sec 5.3 – Independence: A Special Multiplication
Rule, Calculating Conditional Probabilities
p. 331; 87, 89, 91, 93, 95, 97,
99, 104-106
R Nov 5
Chapter 5 Review
Ch Review p. 334; 1-11
F Nov 6
Chapter 5 Review
Ch TEST p. 336; 1-14 (optional)
SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7TH AP STUDENT CONFERENCE
7:50-8:10 Breakfast & Snacks
8:10-9:00 Session #1
9:05-9:55 Session #2
M Nov 9
10:00-10:50 Session #3
10:55-11:45 Session #4
11:50-12:40 Session #5
Chapter 5 TEST
Tutoring is available most mornings 7:30-8:00am and after school Wednesday 3:45-4:30
Additional assistance is available at:
rhsjetmoremath.pbworks.com
Chapter Objectives
Section 5.1 – Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
 Interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency.
 Use simulation to model chance behavior.
Section 5.2 – Probability Rules
 Describe a probability model for a chance process.
 Use basic probability rules, including the complement rule and the addition rule for mutually exclusive
events.
 Use a Venn diagram to model a chance process involving two events.
 Use the general addition rule to calculate P(A  B) .
Section 5.3 – Conditional Probability and Independence
 When appropriate, use a tree diagram to describe chance behavior.
 Use the general multiplication rule to solve probability questions.
 Compute conditional probabilities.
 Determine whether two events are independent.
 Find the probability that an event occurs using a two-way table.
 When appropriate, use the multiplication rule for independent events to compute probabilities.
AP Exam Tips
 On the AP exam, you may be asked to describe how you will perform a simulation using rows of
random digits. If so, provide a clear enough description of your simulation process for the reader to get
the same results you did from only your written explanation.
 Many probability problems involve simple computations that you can do on your calculator. It may be
tempting to just write down your final answer without showing the supporting work. Don’t do it!! A
“naked answer”, even if it’s correct, will usually earn you no credit on a free-response question.
 You can write statements like P( A | B) if events A and B are defined clearly, or you can use a verbal
equivalent, such as P(reads New York times | reads USA Today). Use the approach that makes the most
sense to you.
Free-Response Questions from Previous AP Exams
Questions can be found on the AP Central Web site:
http://apcentral.collegeboard.com/apc/members/exam/exam_questions/8357.html.
Students should be able to answer all the free-response questions listed with material in this chapter. Questions
that contain content from this chapter but also require content from later chapters are listed in the last chapter
required to complete the entire question. Some of these problems we will do in class as warm-up problems.
You may do the others to help you understand the content from this chapter as well as to prepare for the AP
exam in May.
Year
2001
2003B
2009B
Question
3
2
2
Content
Simulation
Two way tables, Conditional probability, Independence
Conditional probability, Multiplication Rule