eu_comet_marine_proj..

advertisement
EUMETSAT Marine Project Plan:
Use of Scatterometer and Altimeter Data in Marine Forecasting
Overview: This lesson helps marine weather forecasters improve their marine forecasts by integrating
scatterometer and altimeter data into their analysis of the marine environment. The lesson opens with
scenarios that highlight the usefulness of the data. From there, it describes the underlying technology of
scatterometers and altimeters (what they measure) and the estimation processes. This sets the stage for
the main part of the lesson, which focuses on the operational use of the data. Using case examples from
around the world, users learn how to: 1) use the data to analyse the marine wind and wave environment,
accounting for the effects of measurement geometry limitations and various types of contamination; 2)
use maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) in conjunction with the data to analyse the marine environment;
and 3) use the data to evaluate NWP winds and wave analyses and forecasts, and synthesise them with
other observations to create an analysis of the marine environment and its trajectory. The final section of
the lesson provides links to data sources and additional information on scatterometry and altimetry.
Organizational Needs
EUMETSAT (with assistance from NESDIS and other organizations) currently offers a classroom-based
course on marine forecasting and the use of scatterometer and altimeter data to marine forecasters in
Africa. To reach a broader audience, the course is going to be converted into a virtual course that uses
various asynchronous and/or synchronous methods. These range from self-paced lessons that learners
take before or during the course to online lectures and discussion groups, etc. This lesson is being
developed to substitute for and/or augment lectures and activities on the use of scatterometer and
altimeter data.
Audience: The primary audience is marine weather forecasters who make marine forecasts as their only
job or as part of their job. They have to make statements about the marine environment and models of
the marine environment, and scatterometer and altimeter data may help. They may not be using any
scatterometer or altimeter data at this point.
Learns should have a BIP-M and have completed the core elements of the MetEd Marine Wind and Wave
course (or similar), including:
 Wave Life Cycle I: Generation
 Wave Life Cycle II: Propagation & Dispersion
 Winds in the Marine Boundary Layer: A Forecaster's Guide
 Operational use of Wave Watch III
Learners need to know the following before taking the lesson:
 What fetch is and how waves are formed and grow
 The resolution and limitations of wave and atmospheric wind models
 The basics of Bragg scattering
 The Beaufort scale and what waves look like
 Which horizontal wind fields match various meteorological phenomena
Performance/nal Needs



Briefly describe how scatterometer and altimeter data are useful in marine analysis
Briefly describe the underlying technology of scatterometers and altimeters
Briefly describe the scatterometer and altimeter estimation process, including the geophysical
qualities that are estimated and how the estimation is done; the associated ambiguity and MLE
(maximum likelihood estimate) estimates for scatterometer data; and the effect of measurement
geometry and rain on uncertainty in the estimates




Use scatterometer and altimeter data along with MLE and Ambiguity products to analyse the
marine wind and wave environment, taking into account the effects of measurement geometry
limitations, rain contamination, and ice/coastal contamination
Use MLE and Ambiguity products in conjunction with scatterometer/altimeter data to analyse the
marine environment
Use scatterometer and altimeter data to evaluate NWP winds and wave analyses and forecasts,
and synthesise them with other observations to create an analysis of the marine environment and
its trajectory
Identify sources of data and information on scatterometry and altimetry
Resources
Project Team
o
o
o
o
o
COMET: Marianne Weingroff (project lead/instructional designer)
EUMETSAT: Mark Higgins (EUMETSAT project lead), Julia Figa
NESDIS: Paul Chang, Zorana Jelenak
KMNI: Ad Stoefflen
Perhaps others at MeteoFrance
Existing Content Resources



Cases and data to be provided by the team members listed above
COMET lessons: Wave Life Cycle I: Generation, Wave Life Cycle II: Propagation
& Dispersion, Winds in the Marine Boundary Layer: A Forecaster's Guide,
Operational use of Wave Watch III, Jason 2
National Weather Service ASCAT from QUIKScat module
Risks




The SMEs need to provide the case data and reviews on schedule.
Since the project is sponsored by organizations in the U.S. and Europe, we could run into
differing expectations as to what is covered and the examples used.
Initially, scriptwriting was going to be split between the various SMEs, with each responsible for
particular sections. The plan has since been changed with Mark Higgins writing the script and the
SMEs providing the cases and serving as reviewers. This should streamline the process and
make it more efficient. However, it is dependent upon timely submission of data and reviews to
Mark.
Scope creep (wanting to add more information than time and budget permit). We are addressing
this by assigning a word count to each section.
Instructional Design and Development




This is a self-paced learning lesson. It begins with examples that demonstrate the benefits of
scatterometer and altimeter data. Although the lesson has a very operational focus, it provides
enough information about the technology that users can intelligently use the data to analyze the
marine environment and evaluate NWP forecasts.
The lesson needs to be modular so it can be used in various ways: as a linear lesson and as
stand-alone pieces that learners can access as needed (for the virtual course or on the job). This
means that we will use short case examples rather than one long case that's woven throughout
the lesson.
The lesson will be very interactive, with various types of questions and interactions woven
throughout.
The lesson will have a pre-test and quiz. The quiz will consist of 12 to 20 questions and is
intended for those desiring proof of completion.



The content will be presented via text, data graphics and animations, and conceptual graphics
and animations. Audio will be used as needed to facilitate understanding of complex graphics and
processes. The amount of audio will not exceed ten minutes.
A significant number of pages will contain interactions, ranging from multiple-choice questions to
drawing and drag and drop interactions.
The total word count will be 5600 to 6400 words divided into approximately 30 to 50 pages
created in HTML format. The lesson will provide one hour of student contact time, with additional
time needed for the quiz.
Possible design/outline


Introduction (compelling examples that demonstrate how scatterometer and altimeter data are
useful in marine analyses)
Background on scatterometers and altimeters (how they work and what they measure)




Describe what the radar pulses depend on and indicate
Interaction: Let users adjust variables to see the differences in how a pulse responds.
Ask questions about what is measured and the key geometry effects, etc.
Operational use of scat/alt data, covering:
o The scat/alt estimation process, including what and how the geophysical qualities are
estimated, the associated ambiguity and MLE (maximum likelihood estimate) estimates
for scatterometer data, and the effect of measurement geometry and rain on uncertainty
in the estimates.
o The use of scatterometer and altimeter data to analyse the marine wind and wave
environment, taking into account the effects of measurement geometry limitations, rain
contamination, and ice/coastal contamination.
o The use of MLE and Ambiguity products in conjunction with scatterometer/altimeter data
to analyse the marine environment
 Types of questions: Show images and ask what's going on. Is there a
downburst? An ambiguity problem, e.g., do the winds look real or are they the
wrong way around? How can you tell if there's a front? Is there surface
divergence / convergence? When you see divergent/convergent flow, what is
going on?
o The use of scat/alt data to evaluate NWP winds and wave analyses and forecasts, and
synthesise them with other observations to create a analysis of the marine environment
and its trajectory






NWP gives 10m neutral wind as do scatterometers and altimeters. Plot using the
same colour scale to compare.
NWP gives SHW as do altimeters. Plot using same colour scale to compare.
NWP cannot represent the same small scale as can be found in the scat / alt
observations so they can be useful for diagnosing errors in NWP analyses
Use the data with other observations to get a full picture before looking at NWP
(conceptual models)
Use fetch to inform ideas of evolution of the wavefield
Possible questions:
 Show an example and ask about the anticipated direction of wave
growth.
 Which statements are correct about this NWP analysis given these data?
(Compare scat+alt and NWP)
 Why is there a difference between this NWP field and these data (scale /
resolutions)

Resources on data sources and information about scatterometry and altimetry
Milestones and Schedule

to be completed
Download