AP STATISTICS 2011-2012 ***AP STATISTICS EXAM FRIDAY MAY 10th!! At ACES*** Philosophy AP Statistics is a dynamic class that will impact your thinking and the way you view the world. Be forewarned! If you do not want to think about statistics at the most inopportune moments for at least the next five years, don’t take this class! Statistics is everywhere in our culture: election polls, medical studies, and bags of M & M’s. Assignments will be often tied to real world data and class time will often include interactive experiments and activities. The goal of the class is to teach you to think carefully about collecting and analyzing data. Text Bock, David E., Paul F. Velleman and Richard D. DeVeaux. Stats: Modeling the World. Boston: Pearson/Addison-Wesley, 2009. Course Planner Unit I: Exploring and Understanding Data BVD Chapters: 1-6 Time Frame: First 5 weeks of school Topics covered: What is data? Describing and displaying categorical data Introductory discussion of independence Describing and displaying quantitative data Summary statistics for quantitative data Outliers The normal distribution The effect of linear transformations to data sets on summary statistics Assignments: M&M dotplots with description Various book exercises Unit one vocabulary crossword Project 1: Collect data, graph it and describe it (details below) Assessment: Quizzes will be given after chapter three (on two-way tables and independence) and during chapter five (on describing data and the outlier rule) A large test will be given at the end of the unit. This test will include at least one AP free response problem and will be given on one-and-a-half school days. The test will have multiple choice problems also. Unit II: Regression BVD Chapters: 7-10 Time Frame: Weeks 6-9 Topics covered: Displaying and describing scatterplots Analyzing two-variable quantitative data: o Correlation and the coefficient of determination o Least-squares regression o Slope and y-intercept o Residuals and residual plots o Outliers and influential points Transformations to achieve linearity Assignments: Various book exercises Unit two vocabulary crossword Assessment: A quiz will be given on describing scatterplots after chapter seven and another quiz during chapter eight on regression. There will be two tests in this unit. The first test will cover chapters seven and eight. Then another test will be given at the end of the unit that will be cumulative over the entire unit. Chapter six (normal questions) will also be included on the tests. Tests will include multiple choice and free response questions. Unit III: Collecting Data BVD Chapters: 12-13 Time Frame: Weeks 10-13 Topics covered: Designing surveys via various methods Bias in surveys Randomization and representative samples Experimental design: o Control o Random assignment of treatment o Replication o Placebo & blinding o Blocking and matched pairs o Confounding and lurking variables o Statistically significant difference (introduction) Observational studies Assignments: Various book exercises Unit three vocabulary crossword Project Two: Bias project (details below) Assessment: In addition to 10 multiple choice, your test will be three AP-like free response questions. Unit IV: Probability BVD Chapters: 11, 14-18 Time Frame: Weeks 14-18, and the first 2 weeks of second semester Topics covered: Basic probability principles including complement, independence and mutually exclusive Simulating probability scenarios Addition, multiplication and conditional probability rules Random variables: o Expected value and standard deviation o Rules for transforming and combining random variables Binomial and geometric distributions Sampling distributions for means and proportions Assignments: Various book exercises Unit four vocabulary crossword Examination of homemade dice data—law of large numbers Assessment: There will be a few short probability quizzes This unit will straddle a busy time of year. Testing will be as follows: o A big test before the Holiday Break (chapters 14-16) o Chapter 11 in January. Cumulative semester final in January covering everything through chapter 16. o Chapters 17 and 18 will be covered in the first two weeks of second semester with a short test immediately following. Unit V: Inference for Proportions BVD Chapters: 19-22 Time Frame: Weeks 3-6 Topics covered: Confidence intervals for one and two proportions Hypothesis testing for one and two proportions Type I and II errors and power Assignments: Various book exercises Unit five vocabulary crossword Assessment: A quiz will be given on confidence intervals after chapter 19. A test will be given at the end of chapter 20. Another test will be given after 21 and again after 22. Sampling distribution questions will be included on at least one exam. Unit VI: Inference for Means BVD Chapters: 23-25 Time Frame: Weeks 7-9 Topics covered: Confidence intervals for one and two means (with t) Hypothesis testing for one and two means (with t) Confidence intervals and hypothesis testing for matched pairs means (with t) Assignments: Various book exercises Unit six vocabulary crossword Assessment: A quiz on 1-sample t-procedures will be given after chapter 23. A test will be given at the end of the unit. Unit VII: Inference for Counts and Slope BVD Chapters: 26-27 Time Frame: Weeks 10-11 Topics covered: Chi-square goodness-of-fit Chi-square for homogeneity and for independence Confidence interval for slope Hypothesis testing for slope Assignments: Various book exercises Unit seven vocabulary crossword Assessment: A test will be given at the end of the unit. This test will include questions from Unit II (regression). Review for the Exam Time Frame: Weeks 11-14 Assignments: Various book exercises Practice Free Response problems will be used extensively Practice work from a review book will also be assigned Assessment: As we review the course, free response questions will be given as quizzes. Your free response scores will be accumulated to make a practice test score. A practice multiple choice exam will be given. Cumulative Project Time Frame: Weeks 15-18 Assignments: Cumulative year-end project (details below) Assessment: Your final project will graded according to a rubric to be shared at a later date. Student Activities Project 1 Exploring Data Page 1 1st paragraph: How and where you collected your data (collect at least 25 data points, data must be quantitative) 2nd paragraph: Do you think your data represents the population you were studying? Why or why not? What sources of bias do you think may have been present in your data collection? 3rd paragraph: By studying graphs of the data, what relationships can be observed? What do the graphs show? What conclusions can be drawn? Page 1 must be typed. Page 2 + Graph your data. By hand, neatly, is fine Make TWO different types of graphs for the quantitative data—histogram, boxplot, stemplot and/or dotplot Excel?—Makes great pie graphs and lousy histograms—proceed at thy own peril… Main Ideas: to practice describing data and graphs and to BEGIN to think about data collection and sources of bias. Statistics Project: Bias in Surveys The Purpose: To investigate how much different forms of bias can affect the results of a survey. The Project: *The project must be done in groups of one to four. You will turn in one poster/powerpoint per group. *A brief oral presentation and poster/powerpoint will be required for each group. NO REPORT NEEDED! Due Dates: *Proposal: Wednesday, November 16th *Poster: On your presentation date, between December 5th and December 16th. Your group will be randomly assigned a presentation date. If your group is not ready and/or does not have 100% attendance on that date, you will be moved to a different date and receive a 20% penalty on your presentation grade. Topic: You will design a survey on an interesting topic of your choice, but you must design it so you can address ONE of the following questions: Is it possible to word a question in two different ways that are logically equivalent, but have much different responses? Do the characteristics of the interviewer affect responses? Does anonymity change the responses to sensitive questions? Does providing extra information affect the responses? NOTE: You may choose another form of bias if you get special approval from the teacher. You should compare at least 2 different groups. Usually this is a “control” question that is “normal” and unbiased and then a second group that is biased in a certain direction. Depending on your idea, you may choose to have 2 different biases—one that will tilt in one direction and one that will tilt in another direction. You will not be penalized if you do not succeed in creating a large bias. Proposal: 1. -A definition of the population. 2. -A copy of your survey questions. 3. –A short description of how you will create bias and what direction you think the bias will swing. 4. -Where and how you will collect your data. NOTE: Your sampling procedure should not be biased. Survey 50 people per question (50 unbiased, 50 for each bias) Poster: The poster should be completely summarize your project, yet be simple enough to be understood by a freshman. Remember the purpose of the project! It should be pleasing to the eye. It should include a one-page typed paper describing what you did. The colors on your graphs are crucial to communicating your bias: use a consistent color-key so the change can be easily spotted. Points: 30 points: 10 for appearance, 10 for clear communication on graphs, 10 for report Oral Presentation: All group members need to participate equally. Your poster should be used as a visual aid. 5 minutes. To receive full credit for your presentation your group must speak clearly, with confidence and must do something to ENGAGE THE AUDIENCE. I leave it open-ended as to exactly what you tell us about what you did, but I absolutely insist that your presentation be clear, interesting and well-spoken (if you want full credit!). We do not have time for elaborate props/media set-up. Your task is to be engaging with your mouths, not by bringing in multi-media. Points: 20 points: 10 for being engaging, 10 points for clear communication END OF THE YEAR CUMULATIVE PROJECT (five parts): Report Proposal Due Tuesday, April 3th The question of investigation/curiosity: Population of interest: A brief description of how and where you are going to collect your data: Difficulty/Interest Rating: ______ (to be completed by ME!) I. Data Report (20 points) Due Thursday April 19th This section should be a thorough explanation of how you collected your data and be a beautiful example of how much you’ve learned this year about the difficulties getting a representative sample. Examples of what you should include are: How you collected your data Why you are confident your sample matches your population Biases avoided and not avoided A copy of any survey that was filled out Your data: either in “Excel” format or in a table/matrix summary. You need at least 75 people/subjects for each group you want to compare. Your data should be broken up by any category you want to compare. II. Exploring the Data (25 points) Due Wednesday April 31st This section should be an outstanding example of exploratory data analysis (the first unit in our text). Graphs should show the comparisons between all relevant groups you are comparing. You should state any preliminary conclusions that can be drawn by using your eyeballs. Graphs of your data Statistics from your data Descriptions of the graphs and statistics. III. Analyzing the Data (25 points) Due Wednesday May 9th Analyze your data using whatever method(s) is appropriate for your data. Your conclusion should be nicely written using all appropriate statistical support. Remember that confidence intervals can be a powerful method for comparing different groups. Hypothesis Test (with conditions checked) and/or Confidence Intervals (with conditions checked) and/or Regression Your Grand Conclusion! Extra Credit for DataDesk IV. Presentation (20 points) Due by Friday, May 11th Must include: Clearly communicate your question and how you collected your data (5 pts.). Visually display graphs of your data—PowerPoint (if you must), overhead, poster, or video (5 pts.). I do not want a pretty poster that summarizes your whole project. I want you to make a visual aid that shows the class how your data came out. There should be only minimal text on your visual aid—titles and big numbers—not any explanations. Clearly communicate your conclusion (5 pts.). Be interesting to listen to and give us some sort of “hook” to inspire us to listen (5 pts). Do not read off your visual aid—use note cards or your report. Be careful how you communicate numbers to the class—too many numbers at once is confusing, as is too many decimal places. V. Success!? (15 points) I will evaluate the overall success and difficulty of your project. More challenging data collection issues add to your score. Small sample sizes or an overly simple question will lower your score. Details You Should Know Make your own copies of the data, etc. Once you turn in one part of your report, I need to keep it. Don’t get lazy—this is to be the summation of what you’ve learned all year. Please type your paper. Hand-done work is acceptable for some graphs, etc if it is done very neatly. Your work should be thorough and nicely written. Bullet points can be used to delineate a list of observations. Clear communication and thorough analysis is necessary for full credit. Instructor reserves the right to modify/add/delete this syllabus as needed throughout the year! Materials Needed for Every Class: Notebook & Folder or Binder Pencil/Pen (PENCIL is preferred) Calculator – this will be supplied for you to borrow during class Classroom Rules 1. 2. Respect: Treat yourself and others with respect. Responsible: Be in assigned seat with books and materials, ready to work when the bell rings 3. Represent the “N”: Return all classroom materials and tidy up area each day before leaving classroom If you CHOOSE to break a rule st o 1 time – Verbal warning o 2nd time – Conference with student o 3rd time – 15 minute Teacher DT o 4th time – Call to parent o 5th time – Referral to administrator Consequences are cumulative!!!! **Any serious violation will result in immediate referral.** ***Truly wonderful/consistent behavior will result in positive phone call/email home!!!!*** Classroom Procedures: Student will be given 2 “Out of Room” passes per quarter. If student should have to leave the room for any personal reason (restroom, locker, etc.) then a pass will be given to the teacher. Passes not used can be returned to the teacher for Extra Credit for that quarter. Students will not be permitted to leave class without a pass. No late work will be accepted! Homework is typically due the next day and always at the beginning of class. There is a basket on my desk to place homework in. o Unexcused absences – you will not be allowed to make up anything from that day. o Excused absences – per school policy, you have 3 days for every 1 day of excused absence. You must see me before or after school the first day you return to get your work or set up a time for help. o Field Trips/Gear-Up/College Visits etc – all school functions that cause you to miss class time are planned and you know about them before hand. Therefore, you must get your assignment before you go on your trip. Class will continue as usual during field trips. All work that you miss is due the first day you return to class! Work turned in after this will not be accepted. Math School Fees o If you are assigned a calculator, or you check one out to borrow, and it is not returned or is returned broken you will be charged an $80.00 school fee to replace it. o All school fees must be paid in full in order to attend Prom or to pick up your Diploma.