TITLE
Fault identification and risk assessment of engineering systems
THE SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH
Fault identification (detection and diagnostics) of engineering systems is a significant factor for a successful
operation of the system. An appropriate and effective fault identification tools (e.g. software and
mathematical models) and their application would significantly reduce the unavailability and down-time of
the system due to unexpected failures. Diagnosing the correct system state allows the user to take the
advantage of the condition or risk based system maintenance and minimise the unavailability of the system.
Condition based maintenance assures that the system is functioning at an acceptable risk level and optimal
maintenance costs.
The goal of this study would be to develop a methodology for fault identification and fault risk assessment,
and apply it for a selected system.
On the basis of this objective the following research tasks (two for one year) were distinguished:
1. finding of issues and suitable methods for engineering systems reliability and risk modelling,
2. creation of methods and software for systems' fault identification,
3. development of methodology for risk assessment, and
4. application of the developed methods and means.
Developed methodology should be flexible enough to be applicable to other systems, given slight
modifications. The fault identifications is performed in real time (or close to real time) by monitoring the
values of parameters that define the performance of a system and comparing them against thresholds or
known trends in the values of these parameters. In practice, it is common to use the first option, where
parameter values are checked against predefined thresholds. However, such an approach only allows a late
detection of a fault, once the effect of the fault has a strong influence on the performance of the system. The
application of mathematical models or data analysis methods, such as information deciphering, pattern
recognition or data classification, would allow the detection of a degrading state of the system or individual
components. Risk assessment and prognostics can then be performed, once the current condition of the
system is evaluated. The risk assessment is performed by taking into account additional factors, such as
projected operational usage, maintenance and inspection policies, the probability of human error and others.
A successful implementation of such methodology would allow the end users to reduce the life cycle costs of
various systems in conjunction with the probability of a system failing, event without an early indication.
SUPERVISOR
Dr. Robertas Alzbutas, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Kaunas University of Technology
SUPERVISOR‘S COMPETENCE
Mr. Robertas Alzbutas (Prof. in Applied Mathematics, Dr. in Technology Sciences) received his master
degree of Science in Mathematics in 1999 and finished his Ph.D. thesis on Risk Minimization and Reliability
Control of Systems in NPPs Considering Data and Modelling Uncertainty in 2003. He has been working as
Senior Research Associate since 2004 and participated in more than 30 international training courses and
workshops. His main research interests are related to risk minimization and reliability control, uncertainty
and sensitivity analysis, probabilistic safety assessment, external event analysis, dynamic reliability
techniques, simulation and statistical software developing, probabilistic structural reliability, maintenance
optimization and integrated risk informed decision making. He was involved in more than 20 national and
international projects related to reliability and safety assessment. In Kaunas University of Technology he, as
professor, is giving lectures on Theory of Reliability and lectures on Risk and Uncertainty Analysis. He has
authored or co-authored more than 100 reports and publications in journals and conference proceedings.
The main publications (in WoS Core Collection, 5 year interval) are presented below:
1. Alzbutas R. Probabilistic dynamics for integrated analysis of accident sequences considering
uncertain events. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/892502) // Science and Technology of Nuclear
Installations. ISSN 1687-6075. Vol. 2015, Article ID 892502, p.18
2. Alzbutas R., Voronov R. Reliability and safety analysis for systems of fusion device
(http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fusengdes.2015.03.001) // Fusion Engineering and Design ISSN 09203796. 2015. Vol. 94. p. 31-41
3. Alzbutas R., Iešmantas T. Application of Bayesian methods for age-dependent reliability analysis //
Quality and Reliability Engineering International. ISSN 0748-8017. 2014. Vol. 30, Iss. 1, p. 121132.
4. Alzbutas R., Iešmantas T., Povilaitis M., Vitkutė J. Risk and uncertainty analysis of gas pipeline
failure and gas combustion consequence // Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.
ISSN 1436-3240. 2014, Vol. 28, Iss. 6, p. 1431-1446.
5. Iešmantas T., Alzbutas R. Bayesian assessment of electrical power transmission grid outage risk //
International Journal Electrical Power & Energy Systems. ISSN 0142-0615. 2014. Vol. 58, p. 85-90.
6. Bosch H.-S., Wolf R.C., et al., Alzbutas R. Technical challenges in the construction of steady-state
stellarator Wendelstein 7-X // Nuclear fusion. ISSN 0029-5515. 2013. Vol. 53, No. 12, p. 1-16.
7. Alzbutas R., Norvaiša E. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for economic optimisation of new
energy source in Lithuania // Progress in nuclear energy. ISSN 0149-1970. 2012. Vol 61, p. 17-25.
8. Dundulis G., Kulak F. R., Alzbutas R., Ušpuras E. Integrated probabilistic analysis of nuclear power
plant building damage due to an aircraft crash // International Journal of Crashworthiness. ISSN
1358-8265. 2011. Vol. 16, No. 1, p. 49-62.
9. Voronov R., Alzbutas R. Probabilistic analysis of operators actions at the Ignalina Nuclear Power
Plant taking account of the specific conditions of accident sequences // Atomic energy. ISSN 10634258. 2011. Vol. 110, No. 5, p. 297-303.
Membership of professional bodies:
Member of Associations/Networks/Groups: NUGENIA, ENIQ, APSA, IDPSA, ENSTII, ETSON;
Member of Lithuanian Statisticians Association, Lithuanian Society of Mathematicians and Member of
Technical Committee for Conference “Advances in Risk and Reliability Technology Symposium”.
R. Alzbutas participation in EU FP6/FP7 Networks of Excellence: "Nuclear Plant Life Prediction
(NULIFE)" and “Severe Accident Research of Nuclear Power Plants (SARNET I/II)” as well as the list of
main projects (presented below) confirms above qualifications and relevant competence in risk minimization
and reliability control, probabilistic safety assessment, human reliability analysis, uncertainty and sensitivity
analysis, dynamic reliability techniques, maintenance optimization and integrated risk informed decision
making:
• 2009, 2010-2012. Project leader in projects for JSC “Visagino NPP”: “Assessment of Potential Visaginas
NPP Construction Sites in Respect of External Events”, “Update and Extension of Assessment of Potential
Visaginas NPP Construction Sites in Respect of External Events”.
• 2012–2014. Leader of Training Course on Safety Assessment II (Probabilistic Safety Assessment).
EuropeAid/131069/C/SER/Multi project MC3.01/10. Training and Tutoring for experts of the NRAs and
their TSOs: Lot 2: Nuclear Safety Assessment and Inspection.
• 2013–2015. Leader of Training Course on PSA. EuropeAid//132632/C/SER/Multi Project MC3.01/11
Training and Tutoring for experts of the NRAs and their TSOs: Lot 1: Nuclear Safety Regulation, Licensing
and Enforcement & Lot 2: Nuclear Safety Assessment and Inspection.
• 2013-2016. Project leader of LT part in FP7 project “Advanced Safety Assessment Methodology: Extended
PSA (ASAMPSA_E)”, FP7-Fission-2013, Coordinator: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire
(IRSN). Activities includes: consideration of Human reliability, NPP event analysis, human performance,
contribution for establishment of regulations.
• 2015-2016. Project leader of LT part in project “Justification of Risk Reduction through In-Service
Inspection (REDUCE)”, according to FP7 NUGENIA+ 2014 pilot competitive public call for research
project, Coordinator: Inspecta Technology AB.
R. Alzbutas other relevant information - contribution to the international safety standards/documents:
IAEA safety standards series No. SSG-3 and No. SSG-4, 2010; IAEA-TECDOC -1652, 2010; IAEATECDOC-1487, 2006; IAEA-TECDOC-1511, 2006. This includes: Determining the quality of probabilistic
safety assessment for applications in nuclear power plants;
Recently contribution to the finalisation of IAEA TECDOC draft on “Guidance on Performing Integrated
Risk Informed Decision Making”.
Relevant publications from other members of the group:
1. Sakalauskas, Eligijus; Michalkovič, Aleksejus. New asymmetric cipher of non-commuting
cryptography class based on matrix power function // Informatica. Vilnius: Institute of Mathematics
and Informatics. ISSN 0868-4952. 2014, vol. 25, no. 2, p. 283-298.
2. Vitkus, Paulius; Sakalauskas, Eligijus; Listopadskis, Narimantas; Vitkienė, Raimonda.
Microprocessor realization of key agreement protocol based on matrix power function // Elektronika
ir elektrotechnika = Electronics and Electrical Engineering. Kaunas: KTU. ISSN 1392-1215. 2012,
nr. 1(117), p. 33-36.
3. Katvickis, Artūras; Sakalauskas, Eligijus; Listopadskis, Narimantas. Microprocessor implementation
of key agreement protocol over the ring of multivariate polynomials // Elektronika ir elektrotechnika
= Electronics and Electrical Engineering. Kaunas: KTU. ISSN 1392-1215. 2011, nr. 10(116), p. 9598.
PROVIDED FUNDING PER YEAR
Postdoctoral Fellow’s Salary – 22500 EUR (all taxes included)
Grant for research activities – 2500 EUR