Democracy in Ukraine: third attempt
Iryna Bekeshkina
Prepared for Conference
“Democracy in Ukraine –
On the Right Path?”
December, 16, 2014,
Budapest
1991 – independent Ukraine: task of
triple transformation
• Republic dependent on
Moscow
• Independent state
(army, currency etc.)
• State economy
• Market economy
• Authoritarianism
• Democracy
First phase of democratic transition:
1991 – late 1990s.
Creation of democratic institutions
• Non-competitive obligatory
elections
• One party’s monopoly on state
power
• “The only true” ideology
• State media censored by the
party
• Total isolation of citizens from
outside world
• Genuine electoral
competition;
• Multi-party system;
• Freedom of expression and
beliefs;
• Independent non-state press,
TV, and radio;
• Unlimited contacts with
outside world.
1996 – adoption of the Constitution of
Ukraine, first article states that
Ukraine is a democratic state
But
Economic collapse, drastic drop in the
living standards
Second phase of democratic transition:
Late 1990s – 2004
Establishment of hybrid semi-authoritarian regime
• Dysfunctionality of democratic institutions,
especially elections
• Limited privatization, creation of oligarchic
capital
• Proliferation of corruption
• Authorities’ control over mass media
BUT
•Strong opposition with high level of public support
•Development of civil society
•Economic growth, increase of the living standards and formation of middle class
•Several independent mass media (“Channel 5”)
Ukraine between East and West
Which integration vector is a
priority for Ukraine?
May 2004
EU – 35%
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan – 44%
Difficult to answer – 21%
Second attempt of democratic transition:
2005 – February 2010
Ukraine becomes a free country
• Freedom of opposition
activities
• Freedom of mass media
• Freedom of assembly
• Free, competitive, and
democratic elections
BUT
• Degradation of political
parties, transformation of
them into leader-oriented
financial corporations
• Rise of populism and
paternalism
• Economic crisis of 2008-2009
and deep disappointment of
people in politics
Ukraine (2005 – 2009) was a unique hybrid: free but
corrupt country
2001
2.1
2002
2.4
2003
2.3
2004
2.1
2005
2.6
2006
2.8
2007
2.7
2008
2.4
2009
2.2
On the eve of 2010 presidential election, public opinion
became more sympathetic towards authoritarianism
45
Democracy is preferable
to any other kind of
government
40
35
30
In some circumstances a
non-democratic
government can be
preferable
25
20
15
5
For someone like me, it
doesn’t matter
what form of
government we have
0
Difficult to answer
10
May 2004
June 2007 December April 2009 December
2008
2009
14 February 2010 – beginning of rollback of
democracy in Ukraine
Reasons behind Viktor
Yanukovych’s victory:
1. Sharp economic
downfall as a result of
global financial crisis.
2. Public disappointment
in democracy, longing for
“strong leader”.
Establishment of authoritarianism, curtailment of political
rights and civil liberties (2010 – February, 2014)
• Political repressions
• Establishment of authoritarian
hierarchy of power: degradation of
parliament, total subordination of
judiciary to executive
• Endemic and systematic nature of
corruption
• Limitation of electoral competition
• Restriction of freedom of speech
• Curtailment of basic rights and
freedoms
BUT
• Activation of civil society
• Loss of illusions
• Consolidation of opposition
At the times of President Yanukovych Ukraine lost a status of
free country and remains to be strongly corrupted state
Indices of freedom (Freedom House):
2005-2009:
Political rights – 3
Civil liberties – 2
Diagnosis: free country
2010-2012:
Political rights – 4
Civil liberties – 3
Diagnosis: partly free country
Corruption indices:
2010 – 2.4
2011 – 2.3
2012 - 2.6
Diagnosis: strongly corrupted
country
Economy was subordinated to Yanukovych and his
close relatives and affiliates
• Endemic corruption
• Monopolies
• For my friends, anything; for my
enemies, the law
• Bribes on public procurements
• Expropriation of properties
through courts
Viktor Yanukovych’s son,
Oleksandr, has during the last 6
months multiplied his wealth
three times – from 187 to 510
million of USD.
Maidan
(21 November 2013– 20 February 2014)
– anti-authoritarian democratic revolution
Maidan, having started as
student demonstration for
signing the Association
Agreement with the EU,
soon turned into antiauthoritarian democratic
revolution which has
ended with escape of
Yanukovych and change of
authorities.
New threats to Ukraine
New challenges to democracy
• Russian aggression
(Crimea, Donbas)
• Separation of Ukraine
• Civic War
• Economic default
Democracy at the Troubled Times: is
it possible?
• Free and fair elections
• Dialog with the East and
the South
• Radical reforms
• Civil society control
Free and fair election under conditions
of military actions
• Ukraine has conducted
pre-term presidential
and parliamentary
elections which have
been recognized by
international
community as free and
fair
Majority of Ukrainians have recognized
the elections as free and fair
How free and fair have the
presidential elections been?
Completely or rather fair – 62%
Completely or rather unfair – 22%
How free and fair have the
parliamentary elections
been?
Completely or rather fair – 56%
Completely or rather unfair – 28%
Majority of Ukrainians believe that the parliamentary
elections will improve situation in Ukraine
Do you think that parliamentary
elections will help to improve
situation in Ukraine?
October
October
2012
2014
Yes, the elections will help
to improve the situation
23
43
The elections won’t change
anything
No, the elections will only
make things worse
Difficult to answer
48
32
7
7
16
19
Ukrainian put main responsibility for
separatism in the East of the country on Russia
In your opinion, what are the reasons for
separatism in the East of Ukraine? (Respondents
could choose up to three answers)
Provocations and subversions of Russia
Pro-Russian attitudes of large part of
inhabitants of this region
Actions of Donbas “oligarchs”
Change of authorities of the country in
February 2014
Mistakes of new Ukrainian authorities
Events in Crimea
Poor socio-economic situation in this region
Provocations and subversions of Western
countries
Excessive centralization of power in Ukraine
Other
Difficult to say
60,6
37,9
29,7
27,7
19,7
17,3
17,3
9,9
4,8
1,8
3,4
The survey was conducted during September 5-10,
2014, by Razumkov Centre
Russian started to treat Ukrainians – as well as Ukrainians started to
treat Russians – worse. Still, Russians have more negative attitude
towards Ukrainians
Dynamics of positive attitude of Ukrainians towards Russians and Russians
towards Ukrainians
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
В Україні до Росії
В Росії до України
In Ukrainians’ public view, Eastern foreign vector is no longer
on a same part as Western
Positive attitudes towards joining
union with Russia and Belarus and
towards joining the EU
(Data of the Institute of Sociology of
the National Academy of Sciences of
Ukraine)
70
60
50
40
30
20
61
56
58
41
44
63
48
61
54
47
43
60
61
44
45
56
46
49
42
54
Union with
Russia and
Belarus
22
Joining the EU
10
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014
Support of EU membership dominates in all regions,
except Donbas
Popular attitudes towards EU
membership
West
Center
South
East
Donbas
Ukraine
Positive
75
68
38
37
11
51
Negative
7
9
31
33
63
24
Difficult to
say
17
23
31
30
26
25
Ukrainians have changed their opinion on NATO and
started to see it as a guarantor of security
Which option of foreign security
policy, in your opinion, is best for
Ukraine?
(Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation,
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology)
Joining the NATO
44
13
Military union with Russia and other CIS
countries
15
26
Sept 2014
22
Non-alighed status of Ukraine
42
0,4
Other
1
March
2012
19
Difficult to say
18
0
20
40
60
Popular attitudes towards NATO vary
in different regions
Which option of foreign security policy,
in your opinion, is best for Ukraine?
West
Center South
East
Donbas
78,3
Joining the
NATO
1,4
Military union
with Russia and
other CIS
countries
6,9
Non-alighed
status of
Ukraine
52,7
24,8
32,4
5,7
3,2
14,8
23,9
45,5
17,9
36,7
23,7
39,8
0,0
0,1
1,9
0,5
0,3
13,4
26,1
21,9
19,4
8,7
Other
Difficult to say
In Ukraine, national self-identification has grown
Who do yourself consider in the first
place?
July 2013
July 2014
An inhabitant of my
village/town/city
An inhabitant of my
region
A citizen of Ukraine
29
16
8
8
51
65
A representative of my
ethnos
A citizen of the USSR
2
2
7
5
A citizen of Europe
1
1
A citizen of the world
2
2
Other
1
1
Identification with Ukrainian citizenship dominates in all
regions, except Donbas
West
Center
South
East
Donbas
Ukraine
An inhabitant of my
village/town/city
An inhabitant of my region
14
14
25
14
18
16
7
2
5
5
27
8
A citizen of Ukraine
70
76
59
67
34
65
A representative of my ethnos 3
2
1
3
1
2
A citizen of the USSR
0
3
6
9
14
5
A citizen of Europe
3
1
1
1
1
1
A citizen of the world
1
1
3
2
5
2
Other
1
1
0
0
1
1
In Ukraine, national pride has grown
Are you proud of being a citizen of
Ukraine?
July 2013
July 2014
Very proud or
rather proud
Not proud at
all or rather
not proud
48
63
25
10
Difficult to
answer
27
27
Ukrainians are generally satisfied with
president’s and prime minister’s actions
• Completely and mostly satisfied
with activities of Prime Minister
Yatseniuk – 52%
• Completely and mostly
dissatisfied with activities of
Prime Minister Yatseniuk – 40%
• Completely and mostly satisfied
with activities of President
Poroshenko – 49%
• Completely and mostly
dissatisfied with activities of
President Poroshenko – 42%
November 2014, Rating Group
Main tasks for Ukraine
• Establishment of peace
in Donbas
• Conduction of radical
reforms
• Renewal of authorities
and improvement of
quality of politics
Main hot points of democratic
reforms in Ukraine
• Anti-corruption reform
• Law enforcement and
judiciary systems
reform
• Lustration of former
officials
• Civil service reform
• Electoral reform
Ukraine at the crossroad: to be or not
to be?
• Ukraine as independent
country could survive
only as integral part of
Europe.
• If Europe turns away from
Ukraine, it will cease to
be value-based
community.
• The future of postcommunist part of Europe
is now being determined
on Ukrainian soil.