GAME THEORY STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING Strategic (Normal) Form Games Static Games of Complete and Imperfect Information What is a Normal Form Game? A normal (strategic) form game consists of: Players: list of players Strategies: all actions available to all players Payoffs: a payoff assigned to every contingency (every possible strategy profile as the outcome of the game) Prisoners’ Dilemma Two suspects are caught and put in different rooms (no communication). They are offered the following deal: – If both of you confess, you will both get 5 years in prison (-5 payoff) – If one of you confesses whereas the other does not confess, you will get 0 (0 payoff) and 10 (-10 payoff) years in prison respectively. – If neither of you confess, you both will get 2 years in prison (-2 payoff) Easy to Read Format of Prisoner’s Dilemma Prisoner 2 Confess Don’t Confess Confess -5, -5 0, -10 Don’t Confess -10, 0 -2, -2 Assumptions in Static Normal Form Games All players are rational. Rationality is common knowledge. Players move simultaneously. (They do not know what the other player has chosen). Players have complete but imperfect information. Solution of a Static Normal Form Game Equilibrium in strictly dominant strategies – A strictly dominant strategy is the one that yields the highest payoff compared to the payoffs associated with all other strategies. – Rational players will always play their strictly dominant strategies. Solution of a Static Normal Form Game Iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies – Rational players will never play their dominated strategies. – Eliminating dominated strategies may solve the game. Solution of a Static Normal Form Game (cont.) Nash Equilibrium (NE): – In equilibrium neither player has an incentive to deviate from his/her strategy, given the equilibrium strategies of rival players. – Neither player can unilaterally change his/her strategy and increase his/her payoff, given the strategies of other players. Definition of Nash Equilibrium A strategy profile is a list (s1, s2, …, sn) of the strategies each player is using. If each strategy is a best response given the other strategies in the profile, the profile is a Nash equilibrium. Why is this important? – If we assume players are rational, they will play Nash strategies. – Even less-than-rational play will often converge to Nash in repeated settings. An Example of a Nash Equilibrium Column a b a 1,2 0,1 b 2,1 1,0 Row (b,a) is a Nash equilibrium. To prove this: Given that column is playing a, row’s best response is b. Given that row is playing b, column’s best response is a. Finding Nash Equilibria – Dominated Strategies What to do when it’s not obvious what the equilibrium is? In some cases, we can eliminate dominated strategies. – These are strategies that are inferior for every opponent action. In the previous example, row = a is dominated. Example A 3x3 example: Column a b 57,42 c a 73,25 66,32 b 80,26 35,12 32,54 c 28,27 63,31 54,29 Row Example A 3x3 example: Column a b 57,42 c a 73,25 66,32 b 80,26 35,12 32,54 c 28,27 63,31 54,29 Row c dominates a for the column player Example A 3x3 example: Column a b 57,42 c a 73,25 66,32 b 80,26 35,12 32,54 c 28,27 63,31 54,29 Row b is then dominated by both a and c for the row player. Example A 3x3 example: Column a b 57,42 c a 73,25 66,32 b 80,26 35,12 32,54 c 28,27 63,31 54,29 Row Given this, b dominates c for the column player – the column player will always play b. Solution of Prisoners’ Dilemma Dominant Strategy Equilibrium Prisoner 2 Confess Don’t Confess Confess -5, -5 0, -10 Don’t Confess -10, 0 -2, -2 Solution of Prisoners’ Dilemma Iterated Elimination Procedure Prisoner 2 Confess Don’t Confess Confess -5, -5 0, -10 Don’t Confess -10, 0 -2, -2 Solution of Prisoners’ Dilemma Cell-by-cell Inspection Prisoner 2 Confess Don’t Confess Confess -5, -5 0, -10 Don’t Confess -10, 0 -2, -2 NE of Prisoners’ Dilemma The strategy profile {confess, confess} is the unique pure strategy NE of the game. In equilibrium both players get a payoff of –5. Inefficient equilibrium; (don’t confess, don’t confess) yields higher payoffs for both. A Pricing Example Firm 2 High Price Low Price High Price 100, 100 -10, 140 Low Price 140, -10 0, 0 3x3 Game Using Iterated Elimination Player 2 Left Center Right Top 1, 0 1, 3 3, 0 Middle 0, 2 0, 1 3, 0 Bottom 0, 2 2, 4 5, 3 A Coordination Game Battle of the Sexes Husband Opera Movie Opera 2, 1 0, 0 Movie 0, 0 1, 2 Battle of the Sexes: After 30 Years of Marriage Husband Opera Movie Opera 3, 2 0, 0 Movie 0, 0 1, 2 Mixed strategies Unfortunately, not every game has a pure strategy equilibrium. – Rock-paper-scissors However, every game has a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium. Each action is assigned a probability of play. Player is indifferent between actions, given these probabilities. Mixed Strategies In many games (such as coordination games) a player might not have a pure strategy. Instead, optimizing payoff might require a randomized strategy (also called a mixed strategy) Wife football shopping football 2,1 0,0 shopping 0,0 1,2 Husband A Strictly Competitive Game Matching Pennies Player 2 Heads Heads Tails Tails 1, -1 -1, 1 No NE in pure strategies -1, 1 1, -1 Extensive Form Games Dynamic Games of Complete and Perfect Information What is a Game Tree? Player 1 Right Left Player 2 Player 2 A B C D P11 P12 P13 P14 P21 P22 P23 P24 An Advertising Example Migros Normal Aggressive Wal-Mart Wal-Mart Enter Enter Stay out Stay out 680 730 700 800 -50 0 400 0 Assumptions in Dynamic Extensive Form Games All players are rational. Rationality is common knowledge Players move sequentially. (Therefore, also called sequential games) Players have complete and perfect information – Players can see the full game tree including the payoffs – Players can observe and recall all previous moves Solution of an Extensive Form Game Subgame Perfect Equilibrium: For an equilibrium to be subgame perfect, it has to be a NE for all the subgames as well as for the entire game. – A subgame is a decision node from the original game along with the decision nodes and end nodes. – Backward induction is used to find SPE Advertising Example: 3 proper subgames Migros Wal-Mart Wal-Mart 680 730 700 800 -50 0 400 0 Solution of the Advertising Game Subgame 1 Subgame 2 Wal-Mart Wal-Mart Enter Stay out Enter Stay out 680 730 700 800 -50 0 400 0 Solution of the Advertising Game (cont.) Migros Aggressive Normal 730 700 0 400 SPE of the game is the strategy profile: {aggressive, (stay out, enter)} Properties of SPE The outcome that is selected by the backward induction procedure is always a NE of the game with perfect information. SPE is a stronger equilibrium concept than NE SPE eliminates NE that involve incredible threats. Suppose WM threatens to enter no matter what Migros does. Is this a credible threat? Migros Normal Aggressive Wal-Mart Wal-Mart Enter Enter Stay out Stay out 680 730 700 800 -50 0 400 0