UNDERSTANDING RISK AND
RISK REDUCTION FOR THE
EBOLA VIRUS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
APPLYING WHAT WE KNOW
INNOVATIVELY AND
STRATEGICALLY TO ACHIEVE
SOCIETAL SUSTAINABILITY
A FRAMEWORK FOR LIVING WITH THE
INSTABILITIES CAUSED BY THE ONSET OF
INFECTIOUS DISEASES,
ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES, AND GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
THE VISION
IS
SUSTAINABLE URBAN
DEVELOPMENT AND QUALITY OF
LIFE
IN EVERY COMMUNITY
EDUCATION
PERIOD OF
INTEGRATION
WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY
PERIOD OF
IMPLEMENTATION
HEAR
UNDERSTAND
IDENTIFY
PERSONALIZE
ACT
INNOVATION
FUNCTIONAL
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
GOAL:
SOCIETAL
SUSTANABILITY
EDUCATION
ORGANIZATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
COMMUNITY
STAKEHOLDERS
ACADEMIA
INFORMATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
YOUR
COMMUNITY
RISK REDUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREVENTION-MITIGATION
•PREPAREDNESS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY
•ADAPTATION
EVERY COMMUNITY IS AT RISK
AND HAS AN URGENT NEED
FOR PUBLIC POLICIES AND
STRATEGIC PLANS TO
MONITOR, PREVENT, MITIGATE,
AND PREPARE FOR THE
INEVITABLE
ALL PUBLIC POLICIES SHOULD BE
BASED ON AN UNDERSTANDING OF
WHAT CAN HAPPEN AND AN
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN TO KEEP IT
FROM HAPPENING AND CAUSING A
DISASTER.
A DISASTER IMPACTS ALL
SOCIETAL ELEMENTS
INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF
SOCIETAL SUSTAINABILITY
GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA
(CA) OF TECHNICAL
AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
TECHNICAL
SOLUTIONS
POLITICAL
CA SOLUTIONS
OUR WORLD IS AT RISK FROM
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
 WATER-BORNE
DISEASES
 AIR-BORNE
DISEASES
 PEOPLE-BORNE
DISEASES
 ETC.
SURPRISE!
THE EBOLA VIRUS IS ONE OF
THE INFECTIOUS DISEASES
THAT THE WORLD IS NOW
URGENTLY CONCERNED ABOUT
AT PRESENT, NO KNOWN
CURE EXISTS
ELECTRON MICROGRAPH OFTHE
EBOLA-ZAIRE VIRUS
ELEMENTS OF RISK
SYMPTOMS
EXPOSURE
RISK
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION
FLU-LIKE SYMPTOMS OF THE 5
FORMS OF THE EBOLA VIRUS




Fever,
Vomiting,
Muscle pain,
Bleeding.
LOCATION: AFRICA WITH ITS
PROBLEMS AND HAZARDS
 POLITICAL
INSTABILITY
 FLOODS
 DROUGHTS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS ON AIR,
WATER, AND SOIL
 ENDANGERED
SPECIES
 HEALTH CONCERNS
Ebola emerged in Guinea in
March and has since spread to
Sierra Leone and Liberia, with
a suspected cluster in Nigeria.
EBOLA LOCATION
The current Ebola outbreak is
the largest and longest ever
recorded for the disease,
which has a death rate of
about 50 percent and has so
far killed at least 961 people,
according to the U.N. health
agency.
Scientists say the disease can
only be spread through direct
contact with bodily fluids.
VULNERABILITIES
 The virus is spread by contact
with a stricken person’s fluids:
blood, sweat, tears, and
diarrhea.
FIGHTING EBOLA
FIGHTING NATURAL
HAZARDS
COMMON AGENDA FOR
SOCIETAL SUSTAINABILITY
 MONITOR
(REAL-TIME
KNOWEDGE OF WHAT
IS HAPPENING IN
SPACE AND TIME)
 PREVENTION
(CONTROL THE
SOURCE)
COMMON AGENDA FOR
SOCIETAL SUSTAUNABILITY
 MITIGATION
(REDUCE
SOCIETAL
IMPACTS)
 PREPAREDNESS
(BE READY FOR
THE INEVITABLE
AND THE UNTHINKABLE)
OUR WORLD IS AT RISK FROM
ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES
 FLOODS
 SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
 EARTHQUAKES
 TSUNAMIS
CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN
INUNDATION AND SCOUR
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
EFFECTS OF WATER ON
STRUCTURE & CONTENTS
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
HEALTH PROBLEMS,
INJURIES, AND DEATH
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
VULNERABILITY OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES
OF RISK
WIND AND WATER
PENETRATE BUILDING
ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES
WINDOWS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
CASE HISTORIES
STORM SURGE AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION
IRREGULARITIES IN
ELEVATION AND PLAN
POOR WORKMANSHIP
IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
CAUSES
OF RISK
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE
FAULTING )
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN MASS,
STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
CASE HISTORIES
FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE
RUNUP AND SEICHE
POOR DETAILING OF
STRUCTURALSYSTEM
IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
CAUSES
OF RISK
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
CASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
NO WARNING, OR
INADEQUATE WARNING
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
OUR WORLD IS AT RISK FROM
ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES
 DROUGHTS
 VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
 LANDSLIDES
 WILDFIRES
CAUSES
OF RISK
PROLONGED LACK OF
PRECIPITATION
LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE
LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
DROUGHTS
CASE HISTORIES
DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF
GROUND WATER
LOSS OF VEGETATION
INSECT INFESTATION
PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND
BY DESERTIFICATION
CAUSES
OF RISK
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
(TEPHRA)
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH
(AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
IGNORING WARNING TO
EVACUATE
CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING ON UNSTABLE
SLOPES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO FALLS
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO TOPPLES
LANDSLIDES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO SPREADS
CASE HISTORIES
SOIL AND ROCK
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
OR GROUND SHAKING
BARE, OVERSTEEPENED
SLOPES
CAUSES
OF RISK
LIGHTNING STRIKES
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBANWILDLANDS INTERFACE
WILDFIRES
CASE HISTORIES
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
DEFORESTATION
DENUDED SLOPES
HOT, DRY WEATHER
MEDITERRANEAN REGION’S
HAZARDS






EARTHQUAKES
FLOODS
DROUGHTS
LANDSLIDES
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION
EUROPE’S HAZARDS
 FLOODS
 GLOBAL CHANGE
 SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
 EARTHQUAKES
 ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION
LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN
BASIN’S HAZARDS
 HURRICANES
 EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS
 FLOODS
 GLOBAL CHANGE
 LANDSLIDES
 VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
SOUTH AMERICA/CARIBBEAN
BASIN’S HAZARDS
 HURRICANES
 EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS
 FLOODS
 GLOBAL CHANGE
 LANDSLIDES
 VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
PACIFIC REGION’S HAZARDS
 SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
 FLOODS
 EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS
 WILDFIRES
ASIA’S HAZARDS








FLOODS
EARTHQUAKES
TSUNAMIS
CYCLONES/TYPHOONS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
LANDSLIDES
DROUGHTS
ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION
INDIAN OCEAN AREA’S
HAZARDS








FLOODS
EARTHQUAKES
TSUNAMIS
CYCLONES/TYPHOONS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
LANDSLIDES
DROUGHTS
ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION
INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI: 26
DECEMBER 2004
NORTH AMERICA’S HAZARDS






FLOODS
HURRICANES
EARTHQUAKES
TORNADOES
ICE STORMS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
 LANDSLIDES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S
HAZARDS






FLOODS
HURRICANES
EARTHQUAKES
TORNADOES
ICE STORMS
LANDSLIDES
OUR WORLD IS AT RISK FROM
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
 UNNATURAL
GREENHOUSE
EFFECTS