Knowledge Deepening and Industrial Change in Malaysia Shahid Yusuf and Kaoru Nabeshima DRG February 26, 2008 Recent Performance and Prospects • Growth during 2000-2007 has slowed averaging 5.0% per annum as against 7.3% during the 1990s. • The growth of TFP averaged 1.3 percent per annum during 2000-2005. • Rate of saving was 36% of GDP in 2006 but investment rate had declined to 19%. • Population/workforce is growing at about 2% per annum (not including migrants). • Policy questions: Can Malaysia achieve higher growth in the 6+% range? If so, which industrial sector(s) (including services) could serve as the main engines of growth? na Ko re a, Re p. M al ay sia Si ng ap Ta or iw e an ,C hi na Th ai la nd Ja pa n In do ne sia In di a Ch i Growth Rates in East Asia 12.0 10.0 8.0 1995 6.0 2000 2006 4.0 2.0 0.0 Sources of Growth • In early 1990s, investment was mainly responsible for growth. • Since mid 1990s, the contribution of investment to growth declined considerably, the slack taken up by exports (latter half of 1990s) and by consumption (early 2000s). • Growth of services has replaced manufacturing as the main source of growth since 2000. Long-run GDP Growth: Historical Cross-Country Experience • Using Maddison’s data, the long-run growth rate of per capita GDP in Malaysia is 4.0% since 1960 (2.9% if the series is extended back to 1911). Adding the population growth rate of 1%-2% could yield average aggregate future GDP growth rates of 5-6%. “Catch-Up” Model • A “catch-up” model in which developing countries’ growth rates are a function of the difference in income relative to the United States, predicts average growth rates for Malaysia ranging from 4.5% to 6.7% depending on the sample of countries included. Long-Run Growth Rates Average Growth Rates (GDP per capita), 1870-2003 Economy Germany Sweden United Kingdom United States Japan Korea a Taiwan (China) b Malaysia a Note: a Data starts from 1911. Source: Maddison 2006 Entire Period 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 1.9% 2.5% 3.2% 3.5% 2.9% b Data starts from 1912. Sub-Period (1960-2003) 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 4.1% 5.8% 5.6% 4.0% Potential and Long-Run Growth • For Malaysia, 6% per annum seems to be an attainable growth rate. • Faster growth can be achieved, but requires improvements in productivity, increased R&D and higher levels of investment by private sector which will promote embodied technical progress. Is Malaysian Industry shifting towards higher tech, higher value adding activities? • • • • • • • • Trends in Exports Trends in Imports Foreign Direct Investment Domestic Investments New Starts and Growth of Existing Firms Industrial Location Finance Innovation Capabilities Export Composition 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Exports of Malaysia, by Type of Manufacture 1995 2000 year Primary Products Other, Resource-Based Other, Low-Technology Process Electronic & Electrical 2005 Agro-Based Textile, garment & footwear Automotive Engineering Other, High-Technology Export Composition (excluding Electronics) Exports of Malaysia, by Type of Manufacture 0 100001500020000 5000 without Electronic & Electrical 1995 2000 year Primary Products Other, Resource-Based Other, Low-Technology Process Other, High-Technology 2005 Agro-Based Textile, garment & footwear Automotive Engineering Revealed Comparative Advantage • Malaysia’s strength is in medium-tech resource-based products . • By comparison, products with highest RCA for Korea shifted from resource-based products in 1995 to medium-tech products including ships, chemicals and electronic products in 2005. • The highest RCA for Singapore is more solidly in high-tech electronic products and chemical compounds . Top 10 Commodities with Highest RCA in Malaysia: 1995 Top 10 Commodities with highest RCA in Malaysia, 1995 Product 440332 440331 151329 851931 440333 151190 440721 851921 261220 851939 Product Name White Lauan, White Meranti, White S Dark Red Meranti, Light Red Meranti Palm kernel or babassu oil (excl. c Turntables with automatic record ch Keruing, Ramin, Kapur, Teak, Jongko Palm oil (excl. crude) and liquid f Specified tropical woods (Meranti, Record-players without loudspeaker, Thorium ores and concentrates Turntables, nes Source: UN Comtrade RCA 57.03 56.07 52.65 50.91 50.27 48.68 45.86 44.03 40.78 38.43 PRODY 2,287 2,287 4,661 15,997 2,287 4,635 3,667 15,997 13,865 15,997 Technology Class RB1 RB1 RB1 MT3 RB1 RB1 RB1 MT3 RB2 MT3 Top 10 Commodities with Highest RCA in Malaysia: 2005 Top 10 Commodities with highest RCA in Malaysia, 2005 Product 440331 851931 440721 900620 851991 151329 261220 151190 240290 401519 Product Name Dark Red Meranti, Light Red Meranti Turntables with automatic record ch Specified tropical woods (Meranti, Cameras of a kind used for recordin Sound reproducing apparatus,cassett Palm kernel or babassu oil (excl. c Thorium ores and concentrates Palm oil (excl. crude) and liquid f Cigars, cigarillos, cigarettes, etc Gloves of vulcanized rubber (excl. Source: UN Comtrade RCA 63.5 55.9 52.5 51.6 41.6 40.9 40.7 36.5 33.5 32.1 PRODY 2,287 15,997 3,667 4,723 15,330 4,661 13,865 4,635 12,204 8,173 Technology Class RB1 MT3 RB1 HT2 MT3 RB1 RB2 RB1 RB1 LT1 Top 10 Commodities with Highest RCA in Singapore: 2005 Top 10 Commodities with highest RCA in Singapore, 2005 Product 910899 292250 293379 711100 852031 293219 710229 900922 293090 854219 Product Name Watch movements, complete and assem Amino-alcohol/acid-phenols; amino-c Lactams (excl. epsilon-caprolactam) Base metals, silver or gold clad wi Magnetic tape rec incorporating sou Compounds containing an unfused fur Diamonds industrial nes excluding m Contact type photo-copying apparatu Other organo-sulphur compounds, nes Monolithic integrated circuits, nes Source: UN Comtrade RCA 32.29 24.68 18.29 18.24 17.63 17.28 16.4 14.73 14.25 14.21 PRODY 17,433 18,337 25,576 14,680 15,330 25,576 5,376 17,269 20,903 16,474 Technology Class MT3 RB2 RB2 PP MT3 RB2 PP HT1 RB2 HT1 Top 10 Commodities with Highest RCA in Korea: 2005 Top 10 Commodities with highest RCA in Korea, 2005 Product 854030 890120 890590 845020 401310 901390 480990 283719 590220 721913 Product Name Cathode-ray tubes, nes Tankers Floating docks and vessels which pe Household or laundry-type washing m Inner tubes, of rubber of a kind us Parts and accessories of optical ap Copying or transfer papers, nes, in Cyanides, cyanide oxides (excl. sod Tyre cord fabric of high tenacity y Flat rlld prod, stainless steel, hr Source: UN Comtrade RCA 17.26 15.58 13.99 13.75 13.46 12.64 12.63 12.37 11.92 11.35 PRODY 17,667 14,263 10,562 15,565 10,500 20,604 22,143 9,141 16,731 10,086 Technology Class HT1 MT3 MT3 MT3 RB1 HT2 RB1 RB2 LT1 MT2 Top 10 Commodities with Highest RCA in Thailand: 2005 Top 10 Commodities with highest RCA in Thailand, 2005 Product 400129 110814 400110 520615 400121 110230 845012 100640 200820 160414 Product Name Other natural rubber, in primary fo Manioc (cassava) starch Natural rubber latex, in primary fo Uncombed single cotton yarn, with < Smoked sheets of natural rubber Rice flour Washing machines of a dry linen cap Broken rice Pineapples, prepared or preserved ( Prepared or preserved tuna, skipjac Source: UN Comtrade RCA 74.90 70.10 64.75 64.33 59.31 52.26 50.45 44.91 40.49 36.54 PRODY 1,169 8,693 1,169 4,262 1,169 4,753 18,070 4,455 9,337 10,775 Technology Class PP RB2 PP LT1 PP RB1 MT3 PP RB1 RB1 Export Competition with Neighboring Economies • Increasing concentration on electronics and rapidly intensifying competition from China (whose own production and trade in electronics has risen dramatically) is evident from the table below: Share of Overlapping Trade Values Country Japan Thailand Taiwan (China) Korea China India Indonesia Singapore Source: UN COMTRADE 1995 51.4% 28.1% 36.3% 38.3% 6.8% 21.3% 55.7% 2000 68.3% 33.6% 52.6% 49.1% 61.2% 7.3% 26.0% 58.3% 2005 55.5% 34.0% 49.2% 49.7% 60.9% 14.4% 29.5% 54.9% Exports of Electronic Components by China Exports of Electronic Components (countries of destination), by China 1995-2005 EEC15 HKG 2005 IDN JPN KOR MYS 2000 PHL RUS SGP THA TWN 1995 USA Others 0% Source: UN Comtrade 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Imports of Electronic Components by China Imports of Electronic Components (by country of origin), by China 1995-2005 DEU HKG IDN JPN KOR MYS PHL SGP THA TWN USA Others 2005 2000 1995 0% Source: UN Comtrade 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Recent Export Diversification by Malaysia and Other East Asian Economies • Very limited diversification. • Electronic and Electrical products, major export sector. 0 • In value terms, this was higher than only two other East Asian economies: Indonesia and Thailand. High-Technology 100000 200000 300000 value in millions of US$ Exports of Electronic and Electrical Manufactures 1995 2000 year Malaysia Japan China India Korea, Republic of Source: UN COMTRADE 2005 Thailand Taiwan Singapore Indonesia New Exports • Malaysia had 132 commodities that it started to export in any year after 1995 (beginning year for this study) and continued to export positive amounts till 2006. • Indonesia and India on the other hand, had 309 and 219 “new” products in their export markets. New Exports of Malaysia (Top 10 by Trade Value) Product Year Discovered 271000 2002 271119 1996 440722 1997 290220 1997 291736 1996 271600 2000 271114 1998 290250 1996 370242 1998 283324 1997 Source: UN Comtrade Product Name Petroleum oils, etc, (excl. crude); Petroleum gases and other gaseous h Specified tropical woods (OKoume... Benzene Terephthalic acid and its salts Electrical energy Ethylene, propylene, butylene and b Styrene Film, in rolls, non-perforated, wid Sulphates of nickel Trade Value 2006 5233042545 266536600 206958080 141035612 130830762 122121205 90471723 46615116 42007278 29066139 Fastest Growing New Exports from Malaysia Fastest growing “new” exports from Malaysia, 2000-2005 Product Product Name 722692 Flat rolled prod, as, o/t stainless 290941 2,2-Oxydiethanol (diethylene glycol 481131 Paper..., coated... with plastics, 284020 Other borates, nes 580123 Weft pile fabrics of cotton, nes 290220 Benzene 841210 Reaction engines nes other than tur 283324 Sulphates of nickel 291734 Other esters of orthophthalic acid, 271114 Ethylene, propylene, butylene and b Source: UN COMTRADE Trade Value 2006 (US$ million) 4.52 6.01 2.38 2.47 11.25 141.04 20.17 29.07 5.83 90.47 Ann. Growth rate year (2000-2005) entered 305.4 1996 248.8 1997 43.9 1996 43.4 1996 39.6 1997 29.0 1997 23.1 1996 19.6 1997 15.2 1996 14.8 1998 New Electronics Exports from Indonesia, India, and Malaysia New, Electronic & Electricals that appeared over 1995-2006 & their 2000-2004, PRODY. Country Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Product 902221 902229 902290 854020 854042 854081 900911 850133 850520 853090 854310 851120 841012 841231 841280 850612 850740 850212 850220 853940 Product Name Apparatus based on the use of alpha Apparatus based on the use of alpha Parts and accessories for app based Television camera tubes, image conv Klystron tubes Receiver or amplifier valves and tu Electrostatic photo-copying apparat DC motors,DC generators,of an outpu Electro-magnetic couplings, clutche Parts of electrical signalling, saf Particle accelerators Ignition magnetos, magneto-generato Hyd turbines & water wheels of a po Pneumatic power engines & motors li Engines and motors nes Mercuric oxide primary cells & batt Nickel-iron electric accumultors Generating sets,diesel or semi-dies Generating sets with spark-ignition Ultra-violet or infra-red lamps; ar PRODY 20,109.1 20,109.1 20,109.1 17,667.2 17,667.2 17,667.2 17,269.1 17,025.1 14,631.8 14,631.8 14,631.8 14,572.4 13,834.9 13,834.9 13,834.9 12,889.2 12,889.2 11,781.9 11,781.9 9,511.6 India India India India 840110 840140 852210 853010 Nuclear reactors Parts of nuclear reactors Pick-up cartridges Electrical signalling,safety or tra 16,569.3 16,569.3 15,707.7 14,631.8 Malaysia 846931 Source: UN COMTRADE Typewriters, non-electric, weighing 8,470.0 Scope for Export Diversification • “Product space” identifies whether future export diversification is “easier” for a country. • X-axis measures the distance to new export opportunities. Closer to the origin, “easier” it is to start exporting this commodity. • Y-axis measures the difference in PRODY of a commodity and the average PRODY of the current export basket. Positive number means moving up the value chain. • China has more opportunities for upgrading into higher value-added items than Malaysia. Product Space: Malaysia -10000 0 10000 20000 M YS 0 5 10 invdensity Elect ronics and Elect ricals Automotive Engineering Ot her, Low-Technology Ot her, Resource-Based Graphs by co untry Source: Authors’ calculations Other, High-Technology Process Textile, garment & footwear Agro-Based Primary Products Product Space: China -10000 0 10000 20000 CHN 0 5 10 invdensity Electronics and Electricals Automotive Engineering Other, Low-Technology Other, Resource-Based Graphs by co untry Source: Authors’ calculations Other, High-Technology Process Textile, garment & footwear Agro-Based Primary Products Product Space: Thailand -10000 0 10000 20000 THA 0 5 10 invdensity Electronics and Electricals Automotive Engineering Other, Low-Technology Other, Resource-Based Graphs by co untry Source: Authors’ calculations Other, High-Technology Process Textile, garment & footwear Agro-Based Primary Products Technology Transfer via Malaysia’s Imports • Technology transfer embodied in capital imports may have diminished. • Sources of imports of plant and equipment have changed, fewer imports from the United States and Japan and an increasing share coming from China and Singapore. Composition of Machinery & Equipment Imports, by Malaysia CHN 2005 EEC15 IDN JPN 2000 KOR OTH SGP THA 1995 USA 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% IRCA and RCA Comparison Top 5 Product categories with highest IRCA in 1995 and 2000, compared with Top 5 Commodities with highest RCA in 2005 Class Title Horizontally Supported Planar Surfaces IRCA 1995 105.8 Bottles and Jars 93.5 Geometrical Instruments 45.4 Conveyors: Power-Driven Illumination 44.4 26.9 Class Title Conveyors: Fluid Current Static Molds Glass Manufacturing Expanded, Threaded, Driven, Headed, ToolDeformed, or LockedThreaded Fastener Solid Material Comminution or Disintegration IRCA 2000 RCA 2005 21.4 Product Name Dark Red Meranti, Light Red Meranti Turntables with automatic record ch Specified tropical woods (Meranti, 18.8 Cameras of a kind used for recording 51.6 17.8 Sound reproducing apparatus, cassette 41.6 306.1 107.1 63.5 55.9 52.5 Index of Innovation Comparative Advantage (IRCA) is the ratio of a country’s share of patents in a particular sector, to the country’s share of total patents in the world. Foreign Direct Investment • Overall FDI inflow peaked in 2000. • Electronic components and telecommunication equipment receive the lion’s share of FDI. • Other sectors receive FDI in bursts. But no apparent trends pointing to sustained diversification. Sectoral Flow of FDI Top 12 FDI sectors in Malaysia 0 1000 2000 value in millions of US$ 1999 2000 2001 year Basic Metals Coke, Ref. Petro. Prdts & Nucl. Fabri. Met. Prdts, Excpt Mach. & Equip. Radio, Tele. & Comm. Equip. & App. Paper & Paper Prdts Rubber & Plastics Prdts 2002 2003 Chems & Chems Prdts Elec. Machinery & App. Food Prdts & Bev.s Oth. Transport Equip. Oth. Non-Metallic Mineral Prdts Others New Starts and Growth of Firms • New firm formation is most active in Kuala Lumpur/Klang Valley with 1,123 firms, followed by Johor, Penang, and Malacca. • Main industries favored : publishing and printing, food manufacturing, plastics, and apparel. New starts in electronics and machinery most often seen in Penang. New Entry of Firms in Kuala Lumpur Top 10, aggregate net entry in Manufacturing, Kuala Lumpur 1995-1998 5 digit IC 30000 IC description NC 35600 NC (3 digit level printing, publishing & allied industries Plastic products, not elsewhere classified 37100 NC (4 digit level iron & steel basic industries) 34210 38299 34220 32210 38000 37000 34200 Machinery & equipment not elsewhere classified NC (3 digit level printing, publishing & allied industries NC (3 digit level wearing apparel, except footwear NC (2 digit level fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment) NC (2 digit level basic metal industries Printing, publishing & allied industries Note: NC indicates Not classified Source: EPU Malaysia 1999-2002 Agg. Net Entry 286 5 digit IC 30000 120 34210 110 31100 85 35600 76 34220 74 37100 72 32210 65 37000 63 38299 60 1,011 34200 IC description NC NC (3 digit level printing, publishing & allied industries NC (3 digit level food manufacturing Plastic products, not elsewhere classified NC (3 digit level printing, publishing & allied industries NC (4 digit level iron & steel basic industries) NC (3 digit level wearing apparel, except footwear NC (2 digit level basic metal industries Machinery & equipment not elsewhere classified Printing, publishing & allied industries 2003-2006 Agg. Net Entry 265 5 digit IC 30000 145 34210 87 31100 82 34220 79 32210 63 35600 58 37000 45 37100 44 38439 40 908 31000 IC description NC NC (3 digit level printing, publishing & allied industries NC (3 digit level food manufacturing NC (3 digit level printing, publishing & allied industries NC (3 digit level wearing apparel, except footwear Plastic products, not elsewhere classified NC (2 digit level basic metal industries NC (4 digit level iron & steel basic industries) Motor vehicles parts & accessories NC (2 digit level food, beverages and tobacco Agg. Net Entry 202 195 169 131 113 79 70 62 53 49 1,123 Exploiting Urban Agglomeration Economies • Kuala Lumpur is the principal urban center in Malaysia, judging by the population, economic size, and growth, followed by Johor, Penang, and Malacca. • FDI is highest in Johor because of its proximity to Singapore, followed by Penang. • From the perspective of the knowledge economy, Kuala Lumpur has the edge in terms of size, the diversity of services it offers, the presence of research institutions, the headquarters of firms, and the quality of the IT infrastructure. GDP of Four Cities in Malaysia GDP and its growth rates in 4 cities in Malaysia GDP (RM Million in 1987 prices) Johor Kuala Lumpur Malacca Penang GDP (% of national) Johor Kuala Lumpur Malacca Penang Annualized growth rate Johor Kuala Lumpur Malacca Penang Source: EPU Malaysia 1995 18,153.0 21,157.0 5,080.0 13,293.0 2000 23,798.0 25,963.0 6,040.0 17,064.0 2005 29,801.0 30,412.0 7,302.0 21,277.0 1995 10.9 12.7 3.1 8.0 2000 11.3 12.4 2.9 8.1 2005 11.6 11.8 2.8 8.3 1995 - 2000 4.6 3.5 2.9 4.3 2005 3.8 2.7 3.2 3.8 Knowledge Economy Potential Number of GRIs Putrajaya 7 Source: from EPU KL 22 Penang 1 Johor 1 Malacca 0 Location of public and private universities KL Penang Public 3 1 Private 8 0 Note: Only the main campuses are included in this table. Source: from EPU Johor 2 0 Malacca 1 0 Cyberjaya 2 Location of Headquarters KL Putrajaya 23 2 Source: Supplied by EPU Penang 2 Selangor 10 Ipoh 1 Perak 2 Logistics Capabilities • Kuala Lumpur/Port Klang leads followed by IDR/Tanjung Pelepas/Senai Airport with Penang in third place. • Port Klang has lowest logistics costs to Chennai, Dubai, and Munich, relative to Singapore, Hong Kong, and Shanghai. • However, Kuala Lumpur/Port Klang trails far behind other logistics hub in the region with respect to Internet connectivity, air transport (passenger and freight), and container shipping capacity. • In terms of network connectivity, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore lead with Malaysia ranked 18th, making it a regional node. Availability of Capital • Malaysian firms do not have undue difficulties accessing credit. • Risk capital is relatively abundant (US$900 million, 3% of total investment). Providers are mainly public bodies (41%). • The number of deals peaked in 2000 at 20. For seed and start-up stage, the peak was only 5 deals in 2000 and 2001. • Demand more a constraint than supply and technology focused VCs have few attractive deals to fund. 100 150 200 250 Domestic credit to private sector 0 50 % of GDP Availability of Credit 1995 2000 year Malaysia Japan China India Korea, Republic of 2005 Thailand Taiwan Singapore Indonesia Number of VC Deals in Malaysia Venture Capital Deals per Year 80 70 60 Number of Deals 50 Malaysia Thailand Singapore 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Innovation Capabilities • Innovation capability in Malaysia is weak. – Low R&D spending (0.71% of GDP) among East Asian economies, even accounting for the level of development. – Number of people engaged in research was small (12,800 in 2004), even after accounting for population size and per capita GDP. – Sectors of focus by private firms (auto and electronics), GRIs (agrobased and metallurgy), and universities (biochemistry and engineering) are all different. – Domestic patent grants dominated by foreign residents (98%). – USPTO patents: 131 in 2006, bulk of them assigned to foreign affiliates. – Licensing and royalty fees: 1% of GDP in 2006, compared to 7% in Singapore and 10% in Ireland. – Quality of education is middling and there is no improving trend. – IT capabilities lag those of Singapore, Korea, and Japan (e.g. international bandwidth is 3Gbps). 4 R&D spending 3 Japan Korea, Rep. 2 Singapore 1 China Malaysia Hong Kong, China 0 Thailand 0 20000 40000 per capita GDP, constant 2000 US$ 60000 Research in GRIs and Universities Top 10 Fields of Emphasis by GRIs, 2004 Description Crop Production Pest and Disease Management ICT Applications Agricultural Engineering Civil Engineering Horticulture Radiation Chemistry Environmental Management and Bioremediation Resource-Based Technology Communication R&D (million ringgit) 23.7 23.2 18.2 15.1 12.4 10.9 10.5 9.3 8.0 7.4 Share of Total 8.0% 7.8% 6.1% 5.1% 4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% Top 10 Fields of Emphasis by Universities, 2004 Description Biochemistry Manufacturing and Production Engineering Communication Education Energy Technology Mechanical Engineering Automotive Engineering Information Systems Process Technology and Engineering Electronic Materials Source: EPU R&D Spending (million Ringgit) 37.1 29.7 18.4 16.5 13.9 13.7 12.2 11.6 11.5 11.0 Share 7.2% 5.8% 3.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% Policies and Business Environment • Incentive policies for the knowledge economy have been introduced since early 1990s; Are broad ranging and comparable to other economies in East Asia. Sweetening tax incentives not a priority. • Infrastructure superior to that of neighboring economies, except Singapore. • “Doing Business” indicators relatively good and stable. • But among policymakers, a sense that Malaysia is underachieving. It is not upgrading fast enough and risks losing momentum in the face of competition from China, India, and Vietnam. Doing Business Indicators Doing Business Indicators Economy 2005 Singapore 2 Japan 12 Thailand 19 Malaysia 25 Korea 23 China 108 India 138 Indonesia 131 Source: World Bank 2005a; World Bank 2006b; World Bank 2007b 2006 1 11 18 25 23 93 134 135 2007 1 12 15 24 30 83 120 123 Growth in “Alice in Wonderland” `Well, in our country,' said Alice, still panting a little, `you'd generally get to somewhere else -- if you ran very fast for a long time, as we've been doing.' `A slow sort of country!' said the Queen. `Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!' - from “Through the Looking Glass” by Lewis Carroll Policy Suggestions: A Summing Up • • • • • • • Malaysia should aim to double R&D spending from public and private sources over the next ten years. This must be supported by higher education policies and incentives that raise quality and volume of STEM training. The larger firms, public and private, need to take the lead role in industrial deepening through backward and forward integration and by stimulating knowledge assimilation as well as domestic innovation. Measures to strengthen the knowledge economy must be concentrated on at the most one or two urban areas where the main universities and corporate headquarters are located. Urban centers must create the environment and culture which will attract and retain talented people from Malaysia and overseas. This calls for a mix of policies including policies affecting urban design. A dynamic urban knowledge environment which is conducive to the exchange of ideas, to both research and business related networking, and to innovation, demands an IT infrastructure that is comparable to the best in Asia. Polices that enhance openness and market competition can reinforce technological upgrading. Better, more detailed and current data to monitor changes in innovativeness and productivity across subsectors and increasing access to public data to encourage research on socio-economic issues, would assist in policy formulation.