Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Improving the policy process
PAHO Leaders 2006
Disaster risk reduction, mitigation, preparedness and
response
•Pan American
Health Organization
•Regional Center for Disaster Risk Reduction, UWI
•CDERA
Thursday 23rd November 2006
Sunset Jamaica Grande Resort, Ocho Rios
21/03/2016
Professor Anthony Clayton
University of the West Indies
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Problems, problems…
Problem: why do so many government policies fail?
Common reasons: failure to understand the task,
unhelpful misperceptions, assumptions and politics,
policy conflicts, resulting in incoherent priorities &
unachievable missions.
Examples:
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Why do countries get poorer when aid flows increase?
Why do we negotiate for aid programs that damage our
economy?
Why do measures to protect jobs increase unemployment?
Why do government agencies undermine each other?
Why can’t we solve the drug problem?
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Example: War
The nature of war has changed
Wars were formerly between nations; the majority of conflicts today
involve civil wars/insurgencies. War today is more likely to involve
infiltration rather than invasion.
Wars are increasingly asymmetrical, between security forces and
unconventional irregular forces.
In traditional warfare, most of the fatalities were soldiers. Today, most of
the casualties are civilians.
The nature of war has changed fundamentally; more significant changes
are expected over the next 10-20 years.
The way in which the issues are perceived by the general public
(taxpayers, voters, recruits) has not kept pace. So there is an
increasing disconnect.
Even more important, the way in which the issues are perceived by the
professionals has not kept pace…
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Julian Borger, The Guardian Tuesday September 25, 2001
Wargame exposed gaping hole in Pentagon strategy
•
•
When terror came out of a clear blue sky on September 11,
some of the Pentagon's top brass were given a jolting
reminder of a wargame they played in 1997. In the game,
the US was pitted against a zealous, decentralised terror
organisation very like al-Qaida, and the US lost. Each time
the US forces thought they had scored a blow against the
terror organisation, it would regenerate itself to strike on
another front. It emerged from the campaign more or less
unscathed.
That was four years ago, but some of the military
strategists who organized the game believe the Pentagon
failed to learn the lessons from the wargame, and said
yesterday that the US military was still a long way from
readiness to fight the adversary it now faced.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
•
The Pentagon: still fighting the wrong war
According to Doug Johnson, a strategic studies professor involved
in the 1997 exercise, the army lost because “it didn't want to play
that game”. The army brass, Dr Johnson said, “were intent on
fighting a variation of a war against large tank armies on the central
plains of somewhere”. At one point, the Pentagon officers involved
became so frustrated with their elusive opponents that they asked
for the game organizers to have a friendly government's armoured
battalion defect to the other side. “They did it to give someone to
blast,” Dr Johnson said. “Everyone went away feeling viscerally
satisfied.”
As a result, they missed the point. The terror organisation still had
most of its cells in place, and a functioning financial network.
“Within the contours of that particular game, the American forces
and their allies simply weren't configured to deal with an enemy like
the one we created,” said Steven Metz, head of the Army War
College's regional strategy and planning department.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Lessons?
This illustrates three points in policy analysis:
• Distinguish between perception and reality.
• Be wary of the ‘Conventional Wisdom of the Dominant
Group’ (COWDUNG), as a failure on a core assumption is
likely to be fatal.
• The importance of seeing both the current position and
the underlying context or trend.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Making better policy
Question: how can we increase the chances of success?
Answer: a more systematic approach, to help us
• Control for preconceived ideas and assumptions
• Check the facts, get the problem into focus
• Identify our options
• For each option, identify costs and trade-offs
• Agree our priorities
• Build the necessary consensus about the way forward
• Implement!
• Monitor, change tactics if required, stay focused on the goal
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Bardach’s ‘Eightfold Path’ lists the main steps
Define the problem. What are we trying to achieve?
Assemble the evidence. What are the facts?
Construct policy alternatives. What can we do?
Select the criteria. How are we going to decide which is the
best policy?
Project the outcomes of each policy option. What would
happen if we tried this?
Assess the trade-offs. How much will this cost? What are
the chances of success? Could this tactic create some
other problem?
Decide. What are you going to recommend to the Minister?
Present. Set out the problem, your analysis and your
recommendation.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
3) Constructing policy alternatives
•
•
•
•
•
•
Must be evidence-based (from stage 2).
Take into account a range of expert advice and
stakeholder views.
Represent the main bodies of opinion.
Help to bring issues into focus (usually achieved by
making sure that alternatives are sufficiently diverse).
Example 1: Swedish defence policy
Example 2: Go Big, Go Long, Go Home.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
4) Select the criteria
What is important? Is it:
• Results at any cost
• Results, provided that the process is not too expensive
• Results, provided that they can be achieved without
upsetting anyone with a lot of political influence
• Not to change anything, but to make it look as though we are
taking the problem seriously
So does the proposed solution have to be:
• The solution that we think has the best chance of success?
• The cheapest/quickest/most legal solution available?
• The most politically-acceptable way forward?
• The one that will make us look good?
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
5) Project outcomes for each option
This is most technically difficult step, because:
• We have to be realistic, rather than optimistic or pessimistic
• We have to resolve very significant uncertainty into a clear
decision, on which much will depend.
• It is about the future, NOT the present
Key questions: what would happen if we did this?
• Have we tried anything like this before? What happened that
time? Why?
• Has anyone else tried anything like this? What happened to
them? Were the conditions similar?
• How will people react if we do this? How will the community
respond? Will there be political problems? How will the
different interest groups react? Could there be legal
challenges?
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Estimating impacts and costs
Example: the cost of crime control in Jamaica:
• ‘For J$180m we can reduce homicides by 5%’.
• If 5% = 80 homicides, cost of reduction = $2.25m/homicide.
• What are the chances of success? 90%? 50%? 10%? 1%?
• What are the risks of unwanted side effects?
• How does this compare against e.g. investment in schools?
Bearing in mind that:
o Job security increases unemployment
o Safer drivers take more risks
o Free zones encourage relocation, not job-creation
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
6) Dealing with trade-offs
•
•
One option is clearly the best (rare)
Each option has a different combination of costs and benefits (the
usual situation)
Option
Cost
Chance of
success
Risks
A
Medium
High
High
B
Low
Low
Medium
C
High
Medium
Low
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
Aggregated vs disaggregated decision-making
Aggregated: resolve everything into a single numeraire
(usually cash).
Disaggregated: use matrices, maps and diagrams to
keep more dimensions in view.
There are pros and cons for each approach.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Aggregated
Low: 0-3
Medium: 4-6
High: 7-10
Option: make negative
factors (e.g. cost, risk)
negative numbers.
Option
Factor A cost
Factor B –
prospects
Weighting *2
Factor C risks
Total
Plan A
(Medium)
-5
(High)
8
16
(High)
-8
3
Plan B
(Low)
-2
(Low)
3
6
(Medium)
-4
0
Plan C
(High)
-7
(Medium)
6
12
(Low)
-3
2
This
one!
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Probability/impact matrix
•
•
•
The conclusions from a policy exercise usually have to
be absorbed into a government (or business) agenda that
is already crowded. It is important to have greater clarity
about future problems and potential solutions, but that
does not remove the need to make the large number of
day-to-day decisions involved in managing a Ministry or
government agency.
So it is important to have priorities for action.
A probability – impact matrix is a way of organizing these
priorities. It is similar to the triage used by military doctors
when dealing with incoming casualties.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Probability/impact matrix
Low impact
Low probability
Ignore
High impact
Monitor carefully
Risk of critical failure!
High probability
Low priority
Top priority
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
•
High impact, low probability (we thought…)
It is sensible to allocate most time and resources to high
impact, high probability events, but it is also important to
monitor high impact, low probability events…
The US Federal Emergency Management Agency knew
that New Orleans was potentially vulnerable to a hurricane,
and had identified this as one of the three worst disasters
that could befall the United States. This was, however,
seen by the administration as a low probability event.
On the 28th–29th August 2005, Hurricane Katrina resulted
in a 28-foot storm surge as well as torrential rain, the latter
raised the height of Lake Pontchartrain by 7.6 feet, and the
combination overwhelmed the levees that protected the
city of New Orleans. About 80% of the city, which is on
average about 6 feet below sea level, was then flooded.
Unprepared. The Washington Post. Monday, September 5th, 2005
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
7) Decide
•
•
•
Are you convinced?
Are your colleagues convinced?
Are the external experts, independent advisors,
stakeholders convinced?
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
8) Final presentation
State the following:
• The problem
• The analysis of trends, causes
• Options, intervention points
• Benefits, costs, trade-offs and risks
• Recommendation
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Project management tools
There are a range of useful tools, including:
• Project cycle management
• LogFrame planning
• Critical Path Analysis
• PERT analysis
• Gantt charts
These can help to:
• Identify the important sub-tasks.
• Identify the dependencies between sub-tasks.
• Organize the dependent sub-tasks into the appropriate
sequence.
• Identify potential vulnerabilities.
• Identify the minimum time required to complete a project.
• Identify where resources can be optimally allocated.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Project cycle management (1)
Most projects can be divided into a 6 phase project cycle:
1. Defining the theme. This is the choice of area, usually a list of
key problems that require a policy intervention (typically scoring
high on risk, public concern, or assessed chances of success).
2. Project identification. This is the initial formulation of ideas for
the actual project, including objectives, expected results and a list
of the actions to be taken. The goal at this stage is to work out
whether it is worth going ahead with a feasibility/pilot study. If the
answer is yes, then the next step is usually to draw up the terms
of reference and undertake the study.
3. Formulation. This involves looking at the results of the feasibility
or pilot study and specifying the project itself. Objectives,
expected results and a list of the actions to be taken must now be
set down in precise detail. These must then be checked back
against the theme defined earlier. If the project is going to require
external funding, it is at this stage that you decide whether or not
to draw up a bid for funds.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Project cycle management (2)
4.
5.
6.
Financing. For those projects that require external funding; this
stage involves drafting the funding proposal, bidding for and
securing funds, negotiating and signing the contracts.
Implementation. This involves executing the project, monitoring
progress and achieving the results.
Evaluation. This stage involves analyzing the results and
assessing the impact of the project both during and after its
implementation. The goal is to identify any lessons to be learnt
that could help with other projects, both now and in the future.
Projects that require external funding are often phased, with the
release of funding for each stage conditional on the completion
of a full evaluation of the previous stage.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
LogFrame: risk reduction
What is LogFrame?
• Logical Framework (LogFrame) planning involves analyzing and
setting out, in a systematic and logical way, the objectives of a
project and any causal relationships between the objectives of a
project.
• It involves working towards these objectives, monitoring
progress and checking that the objectives have been achieved.
It also involves establishing the extent to which the success of
the project depends on factors that cannot be controlled, and
the extent to which the project is therefore exposed to risk.
How LogFrame help?
• By helping us to think methodically and identify all the factors
essential to the success of the project.
• By encouraging us to check and test our ideas, monitor
progress, identify problems and take remedial action while there
is still time to save the project.
The activities can start if the preconditions are met; the activities will lead to results if the
the results will accomplish the project purpose if the
assumptions are met; achieving the project’s purpose will help to achieve the overall
objectives if the assumptions are met.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
assumptions
met;
University
of the Westare
Indies
Intervention
logic
Verifiable
indicators
Sources of
verification
Means
Costs
Assumptions
Overall
objectives (the
contribution)
Project purpose
(the point)
Results (the
achievement)
Activities (the
actions)
LogFrame matrix
Preconditions
Start
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Critical Path Analysis (1)
Critical Path Analysis and the related PERT model were developed
in the 1950s to manage military projects, but are now more
generally used to manage any particularly large, complex
project. Another related tool, the Gantt chart, was developed
three decades earlier. These tools involve listing all the subtasks in a project, then organizing them into two groups:
1. Sequential: the first group consists of those tasks that have to be
completed in sequence, because each stage depends on the
one before. When building a factory, for example, the foundation
must be finished before the load-bearing walls go up, and the
walls must be ready before the roof can be fitted.
2. Parallel: the second group consists of those tasks that do not
depend on the completion of other tasks. These can therefore be
completed in parallel, i.e. at the same time as other tasks. In the
same factory building project, for example, the contractor might
decide that the tarmac for the car park can be laid at any time;
this does not depend on progress with the foundations, walls or
floors of the main building.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Critical Path Analysis (2)
•
•
The tasks are then represented in a diagram which shows the flow
of events. The critical path is the line through the series of
sequential events. This shows the minimum amount of time needed
to complete the project as a whole. This also shows where the
project might be vulnerable, because any failure on the critical path
will always have implications for either the timetable (the completion
will be delayed) or the budget (we will have to hire more people to
get this phase finished on schedule). The key points along the
critical path usually serve as the decision points for the project.
This process shows where additional resources would have the
most effect. Additional expenditure on a critical path event can
shorten the amount of time required, and help to get a late project
back on schedule. Hiring more bricklayers, for example, can help to
get the walls finished earlier, thus making it possible to get the roof
fitted. Additional expenditure on a parallel task, however, such as
bringing in another roller to level the car park, will not help to
shorten the timetable. This reveals how resources can be
reallocated from parallel tasks to sequential tasks in order to speed
up a project. This sort of tactic is sometimes referred to as a crash
action programme.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Program Evaluation & Review Technique
(PERT)
PERT is a form of Critical Path Analysis which also corrects for the
fact that most people underestimate how long each task will
take, while some people will overestimate the time required in
order to inflate their bonuses. PERT is calculated by estimating
the shortest possible time each task will take, the longest likely
time each task could take, and the most likely amount of time
that each task will actually take. In effect, PERT uses a band of
values, with a top and bottom end and a ‘most likely’ value, as
opposed to a single value.
This band is then resolved into a single value, usually in the
following formula: shortest time + 4* the most likely time + the
longest time/6. So if, for example, the shortest time was 2 days,
the longest time 8 days, and the most likely time 4 days, that
would give: 2 + (4*4) + 8 = 26/6 = 4.3 days.
This final value is then used instead of the shortest time value of 2
days or the longest value of 8 days, thus correcting for overoptimism or under-bidding.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Visual tools
Critical path, PERT and Gantt charts (Gantt charts were
developed by Henry Gantt in 1917) are usually shown as
horizontal bar charts that show the important tasks over
time.
These are useful visual tools for keeping track of projects.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
How to make Critical Path, PERT or Gantt charts
Make a list of all tasks/activities involved in the project.
Put them into sequential order.
Estimate the time it will take to complete each task and
put the time next to that task on the list.
Readjust the sequence of tasks as necessary.
Determine who is responsible for each task on the list
and put their name next to that task.
Label the chart across the top by day/week/month.
Label the chart along the left side with all the tasks.
Draw horizontal bars for each task beginning at the
start date for that task and ending with the completion
date for that task.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Activity
i/c
Prepare
proposal
Fred
Secure
budget
John
Recruit
new staff
Mary
Train new
staff
Joan
Assess
existing
staff
Dave
Maintain
equipment
Fred
Maintain
premises
Bill
Jan
Critical path (sequential)
Example
Feb
Mar
Apr
Non-Critical (non-sequential)
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
5) Project outcomes for each option
This is most technically difficult step, because:
• We have to be realistic, rather than optimistic or pessimistic
• We have to resolve very significant uncertainty into a clear
decision, on which much will depend.
• It is about the future, NOT the present
So how do we plan for the future?
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
The problem with forecasts…
“Sophisticated, highly-paid economists have successfully
predicted seven of the last three global recessions” (various
sources).
“Never make forecasts; especially about the future”
- Sam Goldwyn
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Why do forecasts fail?
1) Trends change. We start from the current position, identify
and extrapolate trends. We tend to assume that these will
continue – but eventually they don’t. Competition intensifies,
markets saturate and preferences change.
2) Parameters change. Market trends are shaped by underlying
social and economic factors e.g. demographics, productivity
growth and technological development. These structural
factors usually change slowly– but external shocks or new
‘disruptive’ technologies can represent discontinuities (or
tipping points) that precipitate more rapid change and
restructure markets.
Trend change is (in principle) predictable….but it is difficult to
anticipate discontinuities.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Can we do better?



Conventional forecasting results become less reliable at times of
significant, rapid and pervasive change
We are living in an unprecedented era of accelerating technological,
economic and social change, driven by:
o New technologies, such as informatics, biotechnology, and
nanotechnology
o Global trade liberalisation, which could increase contestable world
output from 20% of the total to 80% of the total by 2030
o The re-drawing of world geopolitical parameters
o Changing pattern of resource demand, environmental impacts
Are there more reliable decision/planning tools for times of change?
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
What is foresighting?



Foresighting is a tool used:
 to inform decision-making
 to help people anticipate future opportunities and avoid
problems
Foresighting involves:
 envisioning a range of possible future scenarios,
 testing these rigorously, then  back-casting to present day, and mapping out the steps
needed to achieve the preferred scenario/avoid the worstcase scenario.
The foresight process itself is important, because:
 it clarifies and challenges assumptions
 it encourages shared visions and flexible thinking
 it creates new ‘knowledge networks’
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Changing parameters: climate change
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Earth's temperature is dangerously high - NASA
•
Researchers at Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies said that
Earth's temperature was now reaching its highest level in a million
years. Dr James Hansen, who led the study, said further global
warming of just 1°C could lead to big changes to the planet. “If
warming is kept less than that, effects of global warming may be
relatively manageable,” he said. “But if further global warming reaches
2° or 3°C, the Earth may become a different planet [to] the one we
know now. The last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene,
about 3m years ago, when sea level was about 25 meters (80 feet)
higher than today.”
•
The study showed that there was already a threat of more extreme
weather like the strong El Niños in 1983 and 1998, when many
countries around the world had devastating floods and tornadoes.
•
Adapted from Hilary Osborne Tuesday September 26 2006 The Guardian
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Hurricane Katrina, 2005, S E of New Orleans
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Flooding in Bangladesh
The dispossessed.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Is this a solvable problem?
Previous environmental treaties have had partial success:
The Montreal Protocol, which limits CFC emissions.
The Basle Convention, which
shipments of hazardous waste.
controls
trans-boundary
But these are relatively solvable problems compared to energy
use; carbon emissions derive from the use of our primary
energy sources.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
•
Kyoto – redundant before ratified
The US, the largest source of carbon emissions, has not
ratified the protocol, partly because it imposes no limits on
the gases produced by developing countries.
China, which is now the world’s biggest consumer of coal
and second biggest consumer of oil, emits almost as
much carbon as the 25 members of the EU combined,
and will shortly overtake them to become the world’s
second largest source of carbon emissions, is exempt.
As a result of these non-ratifications and exemptions, UN
projections indicate that the treaty will reduce the currently
projected rise in average surface temperature of 1.4 to
5.8°C by 2100 by just 0.1%.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Methane release - potential disaster?
There are naturally-occurring greenhouse gases, mostly methane, trapped
in ice-like structures called clathrates. Most of these are trapped in cold
sediments and Arctic tundra.
There is ~400 gigatons of methane currently trapped in frozen arctic tundra.
If the temperature gets too high, and the tundra defrosts, this methane
will be released. Methane is >20 times more efficient than CO² as a
greenhouse gas, so this could cause ‘runaway’ climate change.
Similar events have happened before. The largest previous release of
methane happened at the Permian-Triassic boundary event, about 250
million years ago, when 95% of extant species were destroyed. It took
20 - 30 million years for rudimentary coral reefs to re-establish and
forests to re-grow; in some areas it took >100 million years for
ecosystems to reach similar levels of diversity.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Western Siberia in 2005...thawed for the first time in 11,000 years…
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
A Stern warning (part 1)
Key points in the report written by Sir Nicholas Stern for the UK
government, published on Monday 30th October:
CO² and temperature rise
• Carbon emissions have raised global temperatures by 0.5°C.
• With BAU, there is >75% chance that global temperatures will
rise by 2-3°C over the next 50 years. There is a 50% chance
that global temperatures could rise by 5°C.
Environmental impact
•
•
•
•
•
Melting glaciers will increase flood risk, then drought.
Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa.
Rising sea levels could displace 200 million people.
Up to 40% of species could become extinct.
There will be more frequent extreme weather patterns.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
A Stern warning (part 2)
Economic impact
• A rise of 2-3°C could reduce global GDP by 3%.
• A rise of 5°C could cost up to 10% of global GDP. The poorest
countries would lose disproportionately more.
• Worst case scenario; the global economy could shrink by 20%
- permanently.
Cost of remedial action
• Controlling this risk would require stabilizing emissions within
the next 20 years then reducing by 1-3% pa. The transition to
a low-carbon economy would cost 1% of GDP, mostly one-off
expenditure (e.g. investment in low-carbon technologies).
Conclusion:
• A one-off investment of $1 could avert a permanent reduction
in annual income of $5-20.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
The real problem…as always…
…is people…
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
•
Surging demand
Transport still only accounts for 14% global emissions,
less than power generation and land-use.
However, air travel is the most rapidly-growing source of
carbon emissions.
This growth in the demand for global transport (driven by
falling prices and increasing demand) is now seen as one
of the most intractable problems in slowing the rate of
climate change.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
Growth in air travel
Air traffic has been expanding at nearly 250% of average
economic growth rates since 1959.
The current UK Government's Aviation White Paper notes
that aviation has increased fivefold over the last 30 years,
and predicts that UK passenger numbers will more than
double from 180 million to 475 million over the next 25
years.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
•
Carbon-intensive activity
Air travel is not only the most rapidly-growing source of carbon
emissions, it is also very energy-intensive. For example, a
Boeing 747 burns about 5 gallons per mile, so a London to New
York flight (3,471 miles) requires some 17,355 gallons.
Air travel relies on carbon-based fuel, so it is a carbonintensive activity – more so than other forms of transport. For
example, a short flight (under 500km, e.g. London to
Amsterdam) generates 0.17kg of carbon/passenger/kilometre,
compared with 0.14 kg/km by car, 0.052 kg/km for rail and 0.047
kg/km by ship. So flying produces over three times more
carbon/kilometre than rail, and over three-and-a-half times more
than travelling by ship.
As a result, a return flight between the UK and Australia
produces about 3 tonnes of carbon per person (for comparison,
an average car emits about 6 tonnes of carbon per annum).
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
Aggregate carbon emissions
The world fleet now consists of about 16,000
commercial jet aircraft. These generate over 600m
tonnes of CO² per year.
This means that aviation generates now nearly as much
CO² as all human activities in Africa.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
Consuming the carbon allowance
In September 2005 the UK's Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change calculated that all householders, motorists and
businesses in the UK would have to reduce their CO²
emissions to zero if the aviation industry was to be
incorporated into the UK Government climate change
targets for 2050.
In other words, the entire UK economy would have to emit
no carbon at all, because the airline industry would be
emitting so much that it would consume the UK’s entire
carbon allowance. The same equation is true of most
other EU member states. This is clearly impossible.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
•
Technological options?
There have been significant improvements in aircraft and
engine technology. The new generation of planes (like the
Airbus A380 and the Boeing 7E7) are partly made of
carbon composites, rather than metal, therefore offer
significantly better fuel efficiency and reduced emissions
per passenger.
But the IPCC point out that these gains will be erased by
the projected growth in demand, which means that total
fuel consumption and emissions of e.g. carbon dioxide,
water vapour, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur
dioxide will continue to rise.
It is not (yet) possible to operate aircraft on biofuels (but
do we have enough land anyway?)
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Scarcity is dynamic
Scarcity reflects four main factors:
 Total physical quantity in available form/location.
 Technology required to find, extract, process and transport the
resource.
 Pattern of demand/use (also partly determined by available
technology).
 Economics: (anticipated) demand, supply, competition, alternatives &
substitutes.
These four factors determine energy & resource-use efficiency.
So calculations of sustainability must take into account a number of
factors, including (a) total stock, location and accessibility (b) available
technology, (c) economics (d) market and technological trends, (e)
development trends (f) demand growth and so on.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Solutions
Faster technological advance, including both incremental
gains and more radical substitutions.
Faster progress in ‘offset’ (flanking) technologies.
Demand-rationing, via price.
Command-and-control, via regulation.
Disaster preparedness, zoning, planning, exercises and
mitigation.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
•
•
•
Conclusions
We need a robust process for making, implementing
and monitoring policy.
This has to be based on strategic/scenario planning
and risk mapping.
We need to search for the optimal (attainable,
achievable or affordable) solution; this might lie in
another discipline or jurisdiction.
Professor Anthony Clayton,
University of the West Indies
Thank you !