ANewWorldofLearning•Europe2020
Prof. dr. sc. Pero Lučin
University of Rijeka
Mednarodna multikonferenca
Splet izobraževanja in raziskovanja z IKT – SIRikt 2012
Kranjska Gora, 21.– 24. marec 2012
Think!
What
2020
will look
like?
to what extent the world has changed
in the last 10 years
to what extent the world will change
in the next 10 years
© 2011. Pero Lučin
2
How to prepare students for their future?
Think to what extent some
important thinks has been changed
during your life, such as:
 Computer
 Internet
 Modem speed
... than, you should think to what
extent some important thinks will
be changed in their lives
© 2011. Pero Lučin
3
Imagine 2020
First class pupil
will be
Secondary school graduate
will be
2nd cycle TE graduate
will be
I
will be
© 2011. Pero Lučin
16
27
33
58
4
What should we keep in mind?
We are living in exponential times.
Learning process is changing by the influence of technology.
Human brain adapts – evolution for survival.
Industrial civilization vanishes.
Knowledge based civilization is emerging.
Educational system is constructed
for industrial civilization.
We (teachers) are educated for
industrial society.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
5
... but we also should keep in mind
Breakdown of the global financial system,
Global warming,
Global competition,
Lack of fossil fuels,
Surveillance society ...
and also Nanotechnology
Biotechnology
Astrophysics ...
© 2011. Pero Lučin
6
What are we going to do today?
© 2011. Pero Lučin
7
The World is
rapidly changing
© 2011. Pero Lučin
8
December 23, 1834
Charles Babbage announces
the analytical engine
-178
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
9
The Times | June 1, 1954
October 22, 1925
The transistor is patented
“The use of transistors in
the ordinary radio set is
probably still far off.”
~1019 transistors
produced in 2003
100 x more than ants
-87
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
10
February 14, 1946
ENIAC is unveiled
It was estimated to have performed more
calculations in a decade than the whole
human race had managed before it.
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
-66
11
September 4, 1956
The launch of the
IBM 305 RAMAC
USB stick – 3,000 x
The one-ton machine could
store a little less than 5MB
of information.
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
-56
12
October 29, 1969
The dawning of the internet era
-43
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
13
November 1971
The first e-mail is sent
The First Email Computer
http://openmap.bbn.com/~tomlinso/ray/ka10.html
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
-41
14
April 16, 1977
Apple II heralds the age
of the home computer
-35
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
15
April 3, 1981
The first portable computer
August 12, 1981
IBM launches the “PC”
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
-31
16
November 13, 1990
Tim Berners-Lee writes the first web page
-22
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
17
March 14, 1993
Mosaic opens up the web
-19
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
18
March 16, 1995
The first Wiki is announced
Wikimedia – collaborative and
rapid generation of knowledge
-17
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
19
May 11, 1997
Machine takes on man, and wins
-15
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
20
November 18, 1997
Wi-fi standards laid down
-15
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
21
September 7, 1998
Google founded
-14
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
22
June 1, 1999
Shawn Fanning releases Napster
-13
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
23
February 15, 2005
YouTube comes online
One hour of video is
uploaded to YouTube
every second
Over 4 billion videos
are viewed a day
-7
http://www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics
© 2011. Pero Lučin
24
September 26, 2006
Facebook was opened to
everyone of age 13 and older
March 19, 2012
833.944.080 users
(In August 2008. – 1.000.000).
701.520 users in Slovenia
35% population
http://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-statistics
© 2011. Pero Lučin
-6
25
July 11, 2008
Apple launches the iPhone App Store
-4
Top 25 days in computing history
© 2011. Pero Lučin
26
April 15, 2010
Apple launches iPad
-2
© 2011. Pero Lučin
27
March 13, 2012
Encyclopaeida Britannica
gives up on print eddition
after 244 years
-0
http://www.wespeaknews.com
© 2011. Pero Lučin
28
2020.
???????????
+8
© 2011. Pero Lučin
29
We are living
in exponential times
© 2011. Pero Lučin
30
When things grow in a linear fashion,
Times increase
the growth is very predictable
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Years of growth
© 2011. Pero Lučin
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8
9
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Linear growth versus exponential doubling
Over 10 years – 1,000 times as big
140
Times increase
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Years of growth
© 2011. Pero Lučin
7
8
9
32
Linear growth versus exponential tripling
Over 10 years - 20,000 times as big
2500
Times increase
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Years of growth
© 2011. Pero Lučin
7
8
9
33
Moore’s Law
Technological processing power and speed now doubling every
12 months while during the same time it declines in value
by 50% (a factor of 4 every 12 months)
David Thornburg calculated
Some researchers suggest that now, as
nanotechnology became a reality, Moore’s Law is
doubling every 6 months
© 2011. Pero Lučin
34
What does it mean?
1978. NY–London
900$/ 7 hours.
Moore’s Law – it
would cost one
penny and last 1
second
The price of
one transistor
= the price of
printed letter
© 2011. Pero Lučin
200x106
transistors in the
head of pin.
35
Gilder’s Law of the Photon
Bandwidth speed and capacity per dollar tripling exponentially
every 6 months (a factor of 6 per year)
1 gbps - wireless
© 2011. Pero Lučin
36
The Internet Revolution!
The number of web pages doubling exponentially
3 times a year (a factor of 8)
Every day:
 3 mil new web pages
 10 bil instant messages
 19 bil e-mail messages
 12 bil spam messages
80% web sites that will
exist in a year (from now)
– do not exist.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
37
A huge number of brains
exposed to knowledge
world's meeting house, a
modern planetary forum,
where millions distribute
gigabytes of data
3,499,295,014 by 2015.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
38
The Age of InfoWhelm
The amount of unique new technical information
doubling every two years, expected to be doubling every
two week by 2006 and every 72 hours by 2010
© 2011. Pero Lučin
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Biotechnology
&
Nanotechnology
© 2011. Pero Lučin
40
The Olduvai Theory: 1930-2030
Duncan, RC (2000). The Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method: User's Guide & Forecast #4. www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/ (Forecast #4). 30 p.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
41
Adaptation
is needed
© 2011. Pero Lučin
42
Adaptation is essential for survival
It is not the strongest of
the species that survive,
nor the most intelligent,
but the one most
responsive to change.
- Charles Darwin
© 2011. Pero Lučin
43
Everybody should adapt - evolution
Every morning in Africa, a lion
wakes up.
It knows that it must run faster
than the slowest gazelle or it
will starve.
Every morning in Africa, a
gazelle wakes up.
It knows it must outrun the
fastest lion or it will be killed.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
44
We should also run – evolution
It doesn’t matter whether you’re a lion or a gazelle when the sun comes up, you’d better be running.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
45
Human brain in the digital era
Neuroplasticity
© 2011. Pero Lučin
46
The puzzle is gradually growing
© 2011. Pero Lučin
47
It is far from complete picture
• bb
http://graphicssoft.about.com/library/reviews/blxen2-10puzzle.htm
http://themessagecafe.com/members-one-of-another/
© 2011. Pero Lučin
48
Neuroplasticity
lifelong ability of the
brain to reorganize its
structure and functions
(neural pathways) based
on new experiences
(learning).
How The Brain Rewires Itself
Friday, Jan. 19, 2007
© 2011. Pero Lučin
49
Our genes lay down the basic
directions for neurons and build its
major “highways” between the basic
functional areas of the brain.
Environmental influence
then plays the key role in forging a much
denser, more complex network of
interconnections.
These smaller avenues and side roads,
always under construction.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
50
At birth each neuron has
2,500 synapses.
In two or three years old the
number of synapses is 
15,000 per neuron.
This is about twice that of the
average adult brain.
As we age, old connections
are deleted through a process
called synaptic pruning.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
51
“Synaptic pruning”
deleting old
connections
creation of
new ones
© 2011. Pero Lučin
52
Learning
Formation of new
connections
Changes in the
internal structure
of the existing
synapses.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
53
The brain operates in a
use-it-or-lose-it fashion
Like sand on a beach, the
brain bears the footprints
of the decisions we have
made, the skills we have
learned, the actions we
have taken.
Neurologist Arne May and colleagues at the
University of Regensburg
© 2011. Pero Lučin
54
Even thinking can change the brain!
Buddhist monks, the
Olympic athletes of
mental training. Some
monks have spent more
than 10,000 hours of
their lives in meditation.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
55
Exposure to media – neuroplasticity?
Today's ten years old can expect
that by the 2020 will:
 Spend 10.000 hours playing video
games
 Send 200.000 e-mails
 Spend 20.000 hours i front of TV
 Spend 10.000 hours on mobile phone
 Spend less than 5.000 hours reading
books
Prensky, 2003.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
56
What is a scale of information that
human brain is exposed today?
Thanks to the machines in front
of us, We can channel more
information in an afternoon than
was stored in the complete
Library of Alexandria, the fabled
repository of knowledge in the
ancient world.
http://doctorbulldog.wordpress.com/2010/05/02/did-arabs-destroy-thelibrary-of-alexandria/
In a day - more than repository of
knowledge in the ancient world
© 2011. Pero Lučin
57
Searching the Internet dramatically
engages brain neural networks
Functional MRI brain scans show how searching the Internet dramatically engages
brain neural networks (in red). The image on the left displays brain activity while
reading a book; the image on the right displays activity while engaging in an
Internet search. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of California - Los Angeles)
ScienceDaily (Oct. 15, 2008)
Web is "rewiring our brains"
The brains are modified by our behavior.
It would not be any big surprise that the wired
society we're living in now is changing in
important ways the way our brains work and
are connected, compared with somebody 100
or 200 years ago."
Strayer agrees with those who say that we
"stink" at multitasking, stating that "we're
trading quality for quantity.“
Strayer, NYT
The brains are modified by our
© 2011. Pero Lučin
behavior
59
Intelligence is not inherited
– it can be changed in teenage time by ± 25%
(and maybe during the lifetime)
Learning and excersise –
can scale up
Inactivity and lack of
excersise – can scale down
Ramsden et al., (2011) Verbal and nonverbal intelligence changes in the teenage
brain. Nature doi:10.1038/nature10514
(19. October 2011)
http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/parenting/gifted-childstudy-shows-kids-iqs-can-change-during-the-teenyears-2590889/
© 2011. Pero Lučin
60
Expected effects on the quality of life
brain fitness
© 2011. Pero Lučin
61
Impact on education is expected
Some neuroplasticians
believe that the greatest
impact of neuroplastic
research will show up
in the field of education.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
62
The problem is more complex: How do
we rise above the noise?
We live in a
socially-networked,
transmedia world.
We need effective organizing
systems and filters that
connect information in the
world with things that have
http://blog.social-marketing.com/2011/07/change-world-with-transmedia.html
meaning and relevance.
http://www.psychologytoday.com
© 2011. Pero Lučin
63
The solution: Transmedia storytelling
Transmedia
storytelling is quickly
becoming the new
standard for 21st
century
communication.
http://deanashour.wordpress.com/2011/04/13/reflective-blog-on-interactivity-transmedia-storytelling/
© 2011. Pero Lučin
http://www.psychologytoday.com
64
Why?:
Storytelling speaks to all levels of the brain
Stories are
thethe
brain's
way ofway
Stories
are
brain's
information
- in other oforganizing
organizing
information
howhow
wewe
rise
thenoise.
inwords,
other words,
riseabove
above the
noise. Stories package
information for rapid
comprehension by engaging the
brain at all levels: intuitive,
emotional, rational, and somatic.
http://www.psychologytoday.com
Neuroscience meets
ancient practices
http://www.psychologytoday.com
http://stanmed.stanford.edu/2005fall/brain-main.html
© 2011. Pero Lučin
65
The dilemma is rather old
Socrates himself feared
that writing, the oldest
information-technology
of all, might end up
making us less intelligent,
with reading substituting
for remembering.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1284564/
© 2011. Pero Lučin
66
'Is Google Making us Stupid?'
There is a dark side –
Internet is teaching us
to stop thinking!
Nicolas Carr
© 2011. Pero Lučin
67
Inability to concentrate
on anything for more
than a few moments at a
time.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1284564/
© 2011. Pero Lučin
68
Are we “outsourcing our brains to the
cloud?” asks Bill Keller
When we outsource
our memory to a
machine, we also
outsource an
important part of our
intellect and even
identity.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
69
We need to think “scientifically”
To survive in the modern
age, you need to think
'scientifically'
(even if you are not a
scientist), to be able to put
things into categories, to
operate machines, to think
in a linear fashion and use
modern technology
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1284564/
© 2011. Pero Lučin
70
New generation
of people is different?
© 2011. Pero Lučin
71
Different generations – different values different learning needs
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Silent generation
Baby boom generation
Generation X
Generation Y
Net generation
© 2011. Pero Lučin
72
Homo Zappiens
The
The generation
generation
– Playing Games
for whom
• Grand Theft Auto, World of Warcraft,
PS2,is
learning
Xbox, LAN Parties
playing
– Communicating 24/7
• Via SMS, MSN, chat rooms, mobile
– Integrating f2f and virtual friends
– Never reading a manual
– Not interested in technology
Wim Veen (2006) - Net Generation Learning - Delft University of Technology
© 2011. Pero Lučin
73
Their tools
…. for controlling information flow, to struggling with an enormous
quantity of information and for fast and appropriate selection of
information according to their needs
© 2011. Pero Lučin
74
Processing discontinued information
Channel 1
Channel 2
Channel 3
Zapping is the skill to construct meaningful knowledge from
discontinued audio-visual and textual information flows.
Wim Veen (2006) - Net Generation Learning - Delft University of Technology
© 2011. Pero Lučin
75
SMS/MSN 24/7: 10 simultaneous conversations
More than 150 contacts
Wim Veen (2006) - Kako Internet generacija uči - Delft University of Technology
© 2011. Pero Lučin
76
Non-linear learning
Non-linear
Linear
B
A
B
C
D
E
F
C
D
A
F
E
Non-linear learning strategies demand a redesign of content:
learning assets, objects to be accessed just-in-time
Wim Veen (2006) - Net Generation Learning - Delft University of Technology
© 2011. Pero Lučin
77
They are aware of knowledge
expansion!
© 2011. Pero Lučin
78
The same pattern of adaptation
Brains of 'novice' users of
Google (a rare breed by
2008) became much like
the brains of experienced
Web users after just a few
days.
Gary Small, a professor of psychiatry at UCLA (2008)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1284564/
© 2011. Pero Lučin
79
All generations adapt
http://blogs.forrester.com/category/mobile_internet
© 2011. Pero Lučin
80
Generations in Croatia 2020
Baby boom generation will be retired
Generation X will lead Croatia – schools,
universities – majority of teachers
Generation Y will represent a third of the
election body
200.000 members of the generation Z will be at
universities and 600.000 in schools – they will
be willing to participate in decision making
Jobs will last approx. 3 years
Business models will last 1 year
© 2011. Pero Lučin
81
Just ICT and spread of information
What about
Global crisis
Political process
Economy
Global warming
Lack of fossil fuel
Nanotechnology
Healthcare economy
Astroparticle research
Industrial civilization is
wanishing
© 2011. Pero Lučin
83
It had its own rules
© 2011. Pero Lučin
84
Schools were constructed for the needs
of industrial civilization
© 2011. Pero Lučin
85
Individual is placed into the center
© 2011. Pero Lučin
86
Should be trained for life in global
society
© 2011. Pero Lučin
87
Schools should look differently
© 2011. Pero Lučin
88
Schools and teachers should adapt to the
needs on new generations of people
© 2011. Pero Lučin
89
Conclusion
Work is different …
Tools are different …
Communication is different …
Information are different …
Children are different …
Learning is different …
Teaching must be different …
Schools must be different …
Management must be different …
© 2011. Pero Lučin
90
How educational system should
respond to all these changes?
© 2011. Pero Lučin
91
Flexibility is a keyword
•
•
•
•
Flexibility of content
Flexibility of learning models
Flexibility of time and space
Flexibility of goals and
assessment
• Flexibility of learning networks
Wim Veen (2006) - Net Generation Learning - Delft University of Technology
© 2011. Pero Lučin
92
Flexibility of learning models
Directed by a teacher
Directed by a group
© 2011. Pero Lučin
Directed by a student
93
How to develop 21st century skills
Core subjects
Learning
skills
Assesment
21st
century
tools
21st
century
content
21st century
context
The bridge for 21st century learning
Learning for the 21st Century. A Report and MILE Guide for 21st Century Skills
© 2011. Pero Lučin
94
Continuous cycles of learning during
life of an individual
"The illiterate of the 21st
century will not be those who
cannot read and write, but
those who cannot learn,
unlearn, and relearn."
Alvin Toffler
© 2011. Pero Lučin
95
Society needs all kind of skills
"Society needs people who take care of
the elderly and who know how to be
compassionate and honest. Society needs
people who work in hospitals. Society
needs all kinds of skills that are not just
cognitive; they're emotional, they're
affectional. You can't run the society on
data and computers alone.“
Alvin Toffler
© 2011. Pero Lučin
96
Conclusion
We are living in exponential times
Our brains are adapting to
exponential life
Educational system is a tool for
systematic development of
opportunities for society and for
economy
© 2011. Pero Lučin
Central role
of teacher –
to connect
brains
97
Reality ?
We
Expectations
Can we do that?
Who else?
Petar Turčinović (2006)
© 2011. Pero Lučin
98
We should wake up
Možemo li mi to?
A tko će drugi?
© 2011. Pero Lučin
99
Collaboration is the only way to compete
© 2011. Pero Lučin
100
We shouldn’t forget that we are
in the 21st century
© 2011. Pero Lučin
101
Hard to change the collective mindset of the school system
Easier to the complete sense of hopelessness.
If you keep doing what
you have always done,
you're going to get what
you always got.
Roderick G. W. Chu became Chancellor of the Ohio Board of Regents on January 1, 1998. His primary responsibility is to challenge and guide
Ohio’s higher education system toward new levels of performance and achievement in serving students, Ohioans, and the nation.
© 2011. Pero Lučin
102
Thankyouforyourattention!
pero@uniri.hr