ANNUAL SHOPPER REVIEW: WALMART Robin Sherk Director, Retail Insights Rachel McGuire Senior Analyst November 2013 Copyright © 2013 Kantar Retail. All Rights Reserved. 501 Boylston Street, Suite 6101, Boston, MA 02116 (617) 912- 2828 howard.zimmerman@kantarretail.com No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photography, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without the express written permission of Kantar Retail. The printing of any copies for back up is also strictly prohibited. Disclaimers The analyses and conclusions presented in this seminar represent the opinions of Kantar Retail. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the retailer(s) under discussion. This seminar is not endorsed or otherwise supported by the management of any of the companies covered during the course of the workshop or within the following slides. © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail Executive Summary: Walmart Shopper Review Spending intentions have improved in 2013, though Walmart has not seen these gains translate into increased shopper traffic or basket. A sizable proportion of shoppers still feel pressured, as 31% continue to restrict their budgets, driving deal-seeking and trading-down behaviors. Conversely, value discounters and online-only retailers’ (i.e., Amazon.com) reach continues to expand, heightening competition with Walmart. Shifts to these channels also reflect Walmart shoppers’ eroding interest in a one-stop shop and rising attention to promotions. $ Perceived price leadership is generally strong, as assortment refinement is an opportunity. While Walmart shoppers feel broadly satisfied with its low prices, the retailer faces greater rivalry for leadership in edible grocery versus other consumables categories. Many also feel that the product selection could be better tailored to their tastes, which supports the need for this continued area of focus at the retailer. Neighborhood Market’s and Walmart.com’s shopper reach is mounting as the Supercenter’s penetration falls, despite its ongoing footprint expansion. These new growth drivers speak to the importance of advancing Walmart’s multiformat “ecosystem.” In particular, defining Neighborhood Market’s trip mission as a complement to the Supercenter and encouraging website visit frequency will be key to rounding out shopper engagement across these platforms. Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail Table of Contents • Shopper Penetration – Penetration by channel, banner – Demographic profile • Shopper Motivations – Financial concerns – Spending intentions – Reasons to shop less – Motives to visit • Shopping Behaviors – Trips, trip type, and baskets – Where else Walmart store shoppers shop • Brand Position – Value demands and perceived price leadership – Perceptions of Walmart’s offer and position versus dollar • Growth Platforms – Neighborhood Market – Online & mobile reach © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 4 Shopper Penetration Walmart’s primary format is the Supercenter, and management continues to highlight its role as their primary growth vehicle. Although nearly 300 net Discount/Supercenters have been added since 2007, its reach with shoppers continues to decline. • Meanwhile, the shopper penetration at Neighborhood Market and Walmart.com continues to rise—underscoring the importance of these vehicles for driving new growth. • Walmart’s shopper base skews toward lower-income, rural, and suburban families, though it has furthered its reach with upper-income shoppers and urban dwellers in the past five years. Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 5 Weekly Shopper Penetration Rate Wanes With the exception of value discounters and clubs, most channels have seen a noticeable long-term decline in their weekly shopper penetration rates. This movement indicates that shoppers are consolidating their range of store choices. In particular, more are opting out of channels without strong value positions, as convenience, supermarkets, and drug stores experienced the steepest declines. Weekly shoppers, by channel 2007-2013 PPD Supermarkets -4.8 Convenience stores -9.3 Mass channel -1.8 Drug stores -2.3 Value discounters/dollar stores 1.7 Warehouse clubs -0.4 Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, October 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 6 Walmart’s Core Formats Also Attracting Fewer Despite continued emphasis on Supercenters, its penetration has declined ~560 basis points since 2007. Meanwhile Walmart.com and Neighborhood Market are developing their reach. *Analysis for Neighborhood Market is limited to states in which Neighborhood Market had a presence as of October 2013 Data labels show format’s penetration during October of each year Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January 2007- October 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 7 Meanwhile, the Shopper Profile Is Shifting Noticeably, Walmart’s base is becoming relatively more affluent and younger. Fewer also have children, though Walmart still over-indexes versus all shoppers. All Shoppers Annual HH Income Kids in HH Generation Hispanic Household Size Home Ownership Pet Ownership Market Size Sample Size <$25K $25K - $49.9K $50K - $74.9K $75K - $99.9K $100K+ Children under 19 at home No children under 19 at home Generation Y (born 1982 to 2002) Generation X (born 1965 to 1981) Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964) Seniors (born before 1946) Yes 1 member 2 members 3+ members Own or are buying Rent Live with relatives (in their home) Other Net - Dog/Cat Owners Dog Owners Cat Owners No pets Under 100,000 100,000 - 499,999 500,000 - 1,999,999 2,000,000 or more Q3 2013 12116 25% 25% 18% 11% 21% 25% 75% 13% 31% 38% 18% 13% 22% 37% 42% 64% 27% 6% 1% 60% 42% 33% 40% 13% 15% 21% 51% Monthly Walmart/WMSC Shoppers Q3 2013 6531 27% 28% 18% 11% 17% 28% 72% 13% 31% 38% 18% 12% 19% 36% 45% 64% 27% 6% 2% 63% 46% 36% 37% 18% 19% 23% 41% Q3 2012 6539 28% 28% 18% 10% 15% 30% 70% 13% 32% 36% 19% 11% 19% 36% 45% 64% 28% 5% 2% 62% 45% 34% 38% 18% 19% 23% 41% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, July-September 2007, 2012, and 2013 Q3 2007 6921 30% 29% 18% 10% 13% 32% 68% 8% 31% 38% 23% 11% 24% 33% 43% 67% 25% 4% 2% 59% 43% 35% 41% 18% 19% 24% 39% PPT Difference Q3 '13 vs. Q3 '13 vs. Q3 '12 Q3 '07 -0.9 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 1.2 -2.0 2.0 0.8 -1.0 1.8 -1.5 0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.4 0.5 -0.8 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 -1.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.6 -3.1 -0.6 0.0 0.5 3.2 -4.1 4.1 5.5 -0.6 0.5 -5.5 1.2 -5.0 2.9 2.2 -2.6 1.7 1.8 -0.4 3.3 3.4 0.5 -3.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.3 2.5 Note: Bolding highlighting indicates significant difference between time periods noted (95% confidence level) © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 8 Table of Contents • Shopper Penetration – Penetration by channel, banner – Demographic profile • Shopper Motivations – Financial concerns – Spending intentions – Reasons to shop less – Motives to visit • Shopping Behaviors – Trips, trip type, and baskets – Where else Walmart store shoppers shop • Brand Position – Value demands and perceived price leadership – Perceptions of Walmart’s offer and position versus dollar • Growth Platforms – Neighborhood Market – Online & mobile reach © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 9 Shopper Motivations Walmart has faced challenges driving momentum in 2013, reporting negative comparable store sales in its fiscal Q1, Q2, and Q3. However, the sentiment among its shoppers has generally improved throughout the year. • Walmart shoppers generally feel more comfortable with their financial situation, with near-term spending plans showing upward momentum in 2013. • However, more are shopping less often at Walmart versus increasing their frequency. Reasons include the fact that some shoppers are still cutting back their spend, while others seek nicer shopping experiences. • Those feeling increased budget pressures are more likely to trade down or look for deals versus change the retailers they frequent. Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 10 Financial Concerns Generally Abate Walmart shoppers’ sentiment is moderating versus last year, a disposition that is in line with all households. Household Financial Health of Walmart Shoppers Job security Much better/somewhat better off No change from last year Somewhat worse/much worse off Household Income level Much better/somewhat better off No change from last year Somewhat worse/much worse off Credit card debt Much better/somewhat better off No change from last year Somewhat worse/much worse off Monthly mortgage/car payments Much better/somewhat better off No change from last year Somewhat worse/much worse off Worth of investments Much better/somewhat better off No change from last year Somewhat worse/much worse off Value of home Much better/somewhat better off No change from last year Somewhat worse/much worse off Q3 2012 Q3 2013 20% 60% 19% 20% 62% 18% 28% 45% 27% 28% 47% 24% 26% 55% 20% 26% 56% 18% 23% 64% 13% 22% 66% 12% 22% 55% 23% 26% 57% 16% 20% 56% 24% 28% 58% 14% However, a sizeable minority still feels that its position is deteriorating. Those with assets are feeling better about their longer-term investments. Note: Shading indicates significant year-to-year difference (90% CL) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, July-September 2012 and July-September 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 11 Overall, Spending Plans Have Improved On par with all shoppers, Walmart shoppers’ willingness to spend increased in 2013 to reach levels not seen in years. Though, 3 in 10 will still cut back. Note: No significant differences between all shoppers and Walmart shoppers (90% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January 2009–September 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 12 Top Reasons Leading Those to Spend Less Concern about the cost of groceries and fuel are the top reasons why lower income, Have-Not shoppers are cutting back, whereas the more affluent Haves are more concerned about the economy. Walmart Shoppers’ Reasons for Spending Less at Retail (among past four-week Walmart/WMSC shoppers who said they planned to spend less at retail in the coming month vs. the same time a year ago) Have Nots* Haves* Rising food prices 51% 39% Concerns about economy in general 41% 42% Rising gasoline prices 45% 33% Trying to simplify my life by buying fewer things 39% 35% Household income is lower vs. last year 37% 32% Saving more in general 34% 33% Concerned political leaders won’t take action to keep economy healthy 25% 25% Concerns about job security 17% 20% Spending more on non-retail things (healthcare, education, etc.) 18% 16% Concerns about the job market 14% 20% Saving for a big purchase 7% 12% Concerns about housing value/foreclosure 6% 7% *”Have Nots” are those with an annual household income of less than $60k; “Haves” are those with an annual household income of $60k+. Green highlighting indicates a significant difference between Have Not vs. Have Walmart shoppers (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, September 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 13 Closer Look at Offsets to Budget Pressures This year, increased payroll taxes and, more recently, reduced SNAP benefits added stress to many shoppers’ budgets. Initial feedback suggests that lowerincome shoppers opted to curb spending over switching stores. *”Have Nots” are those with an annual household income of less than $60k Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, February 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 14 While Steady, 1 in 5 are Shopping Walmart Less Impacting traffic, more shoppers report reducing trips to the Discount stores/ Supercenters than increasing them. Many are doing so to limit spending, though more this year are citing interest in competitors with nicer experiences. Reasons for Shopping Less Often at Walmart/Walmart Supercenter May 2012 May 2013 Just shopping less in general 48% 40% Other retailers offer more pleasant shopping experience 22% 28% Shopping other retailers more conveniently located 21% 25% Can find better overall value at other retailers 20% 22% Doing more shopping at supermarkets 24% 20% Shopping more at retailers where can get in and out quickly 18% 18% Doing more shopping at Target/SuperTarget 18% 18% Doing more shopping at dollar stores 14% 14% Doing more shopping at online-only retailers 9% 13% Dividing shopping between more stores; doing less one-stop shopping 14% 12% Doing more shopping at warehouse clubs 9% 9% Green highlighting indicates a statistically significant year-to-year difference (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape® May 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 15 Fewer Are Driven by the One-Stop Appeal Viewed long term, fewer Walmart shoppers are motivated by one-stop appeals. Instead, more are becoming driven by deals. Location, EDLP, and value remain the top drivers. Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, Feb/May/Aug 2007 and Feb/May/Aug 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 16 Table of Contents • Shopper Penetration – Penetration by channel, banner – Demographic profile • Shopper Motivations – Financial concerns – Spending intentions – Reasons to shop less – Motives to visit • Shopping Behaviors – Trips, trip type, and baskets – Where else Walmart store shoppers shop • Brand Position – Value demands and perceived price leadership – Perceptions of Walmart’s offer and position versus dollar • Growth Platforms – Neighborhood Market – Online & mobile reach © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 17 Shopping Behaviors This year, Walmart’s customer traffic has eroded slightly and average basket has been relatively flat. To shore up its position, the retailer has further asserted its price leadership, encouraged cross-box integration, and promoted stock-up savings events. • Given that grocery is the primary trip driver and basket component, the retailer has further opportunity to convert sales in general merchandise categories. • As Amazon.com continues to rise as a contender, shoring up overlapping categories (e.g., entertainment, apparel) while asserting Walmart’s differentiated offer (e.g., fresh, adult beverage) will become of increased importance. Source: ECRM, Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 18 Trips to Walmart Edging Down Recently While still ahead of 2010 levels, self-reported trip frequency to Walmart is slowly decreasing as the channel average holds flat. Shoppers tend to visit Walmart roughly once a week, supporting its role as serving routine needs. Note: arrows indicate significant year-to-year difference from previous year (90% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, Feb/May/Aug/Nov 2010 , 2011, and 2012; Feb/May/Aug 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 19 Trips Are Generally to Stock Up or Fill In While stock-ups remain the most common reason to visit, roughly as many go to Walmart for fill-in or immediate use trips combined, indicating that the format continues to serve an array of destination needs. Special occasion Browsing Buy sale items Buy coupon items Immediate use Fill-in Stock-up Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, Feb/May/Aug/Nov 2010 , 2011, and 2012; Feb/May/Aug 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 20 Trips Are Driven Largely by Edible Grocery Groceries and consumables drive a majority of trips to the Supercenter. Once in the store, many shoppers also browse general merchandise, though the general merchandise purchase conversation rate lags other areas of the box. Main Reason for Last Trip to Walmart Supercenter Was To Buy … Edible grocery items General merchandise HBC HH essentials Highlighting the opportunity to support crossbox conversion from grocery to general merchandise Conversion Rate 88% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, May 2013 70% 84% 79% © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 21 While the Basket Size Is Relatively Flat With a basket ring roughly flat year-over-year, about three-fourths of grocery trip spending was dedicated to food and consumables. $101 $96 $99 $88 *Note: Last trip to Walmart/Walmart Supercenter for food, groceries, HBC products, or other household essentials Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, Feb/May/Aug/Nov 2010 , 2011, and 2012; Feb/May/Aug 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 22 Amazon’s Cross-Shopping Reach Has Doubled More than half of Walmart shoppers now also frequent Amazon.com, making this competitor far and away Walmart shoppers’ top cross-shopping destination. Top 25 Retailers Cross-Shopped by Walmart/Walmart Supercenter Shoppers Amazon.com Target/SuperTarget Walgreens Dollar Tree The Home Depot Lowe's CVS/pharmacy Kohl's Dollar General JCPenney Kroger (all banners) Sam's Club eBay.com Family Dollar Best Buy Macy's Bath & Body Works Kmart/Big Kmart Barnes & Noble Bed Bath & Beyond PetSmart Staples ALDI Sears Michaels Jan-Sept 2007 24% 42% 38% n/a 36% 32% 29% 25% 29% 32% 23% 24% 24% 21% 27% 19% n/a 23% 20% 19% 16% 19% n/a 20% 17% Jan-Sept 2013 52% 40% 39% 34% 33% 32% 32% 31% 30% 28% 24% 22% 22% 22% 21% 19% 19% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% PPD 2013 vs. 2007 27.6 -1.8 1.2 n/a -3.6 0.6 3.7 5.6 1.6 -4.0 0.6 -1.8 -2.0 0.5 -5.6 0.5 n/a -5.1 -2.9 -1.4 1.4 -2.2 n/a -3.7 -0.7 While Amazon.com’s expanded reach is striking, there also were solid upticks in crossshopping at Kohl’s and CVS. The steepest cross-shopping declines were at Best Buy, Kmart, JCPenney, Sears, and The Home Depot. Note: Green highlighting indicates significant difference between column percentages (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January-September 2007 and 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 23 Table of Contents • Shopper Penetration – Penetration by channel, banner – Demographic profile • Shopper Motivations – Financial concerns – Spending intentions – Reasons to shop less – Motives to visit • Shopping Behaviors – Trips, trip type, and baskets – Where else Walmart store shoppers shop • Brand Position – Value demands and perceived price leadership – Perceptions of Walmart’s offer and position versus dollar • Growth Platforms – Neighborhood Market – Online & mobile reach © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 24 Brand Position Walmart’s brand cornerstone is to help shoppers save money. Today, shoppers value both spending as little as possible and getting a good deal. Accordingly, Walmart has augmented its everyday low price assertions with price guarantees, lower opening price point items, coupons, and various savings events. • Broadly, shoppers feel that Walmart is a strong price leader in the market, with particular strength in consumables. • Conversely, Walmart’s shoppers see room for improvement in the assortment refinement and in-store experience. • Compared with a competing low-priced channel, dollar stores, Walmart has an opportunity to help shoppers stick to their budgets and feel that they got a good deal. Source: ECRM, Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 25 Two Sides of Value of Top Concern to Shoppers Similar to all shoppers, Walmart’s audience is most focused on spending less and getting a good deal, with spending less a slightly higher priority. One-stop shopping falls noticeably lower on the list for both groups. Note: Arrows indicate significant difference between all shoppers and Walmart shoppers (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 26 Walmart’s Price Perception Is Strong Walmart is most commonly named the price leader across grocery and consumables categories. However, the retailer lagged supermarkets such as H-E-B and Publix in relation to fresh grocery. Retailer Viewed as Price Leader, by Category (among all primary HH shoppers) 44% Also stiff competition from certain supermarkets for non-perishable grocery 36%37% 32% Accordingly, expect continued marketing appeals around the low cost of its edible grocery offering. 31% 23% 18% 14% 10% 13% 12% 10% 11% 9% 8% 4% 5% Walmart/Walmart Supercenter Supermarkets Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, November 2012 Fresh grocery 2% 1% Warehouse clubls Target/SuperTarget Non-Perishable Grocery 5% 4% 2% Dollar stores HH cleaning/paper 3% 1% Drug stores HBC © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 27 Conversely, Assortment Has Room to Refine While Walmart’s value is strong, the retailer’s biggest gaps for improvement pertain to the in-store experience and assortment selection. Ideal Grocery/HH Essential/HBC Shopping Experience vs. Shopping Experience at Walmart (among monthly Walmart/Walmart Supercenter shoppers) 87% Consider clear, bold displays to aid its positioning 86% 83% 66% Anticipate continued focus on honing the grocery offer to local tastes, demands 74% 64% 59% 54% 45% 52% 48% 47% 37% 35% 21% 21% 17% n/a Know I'm Feel like I'm paying a low getting a price "good deal" Frequent shopper program offers good rewards 6% 3% Items I want Fun/pleasant Store are in-stock to shop at associates Walmart available to give good advice Price/Value Experience Describes shopping experience at Walmart Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, May 2013 14% 17% Can use Walmart app to make instore experience easier 20% 8% Food offer matches up with what I like to cook/eat Local food products available High-quality Private label Local interest private label brands in items are brands many available categories Assortment Important when grocery/HH essential/HBC shopping © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 28 Walmart vs. Dollar: Strength Relies on Brands For those looking for low price points, Walmart’s strength versus dollar stores is its broad offering of brands, in-stocks, and private label equity. Conversely, dollar stores are viewed as helping shoppers budget and get a good deal. Which is Better on the Following Factors: Walmart or Dollar Stores? (among shoppers who shopped both Walmart/Walmart Supercenter and a dollar store during the past four weeks) Dollar Stores are Better Wallmart is Better Feeling like I'm getting a "good deal" 45% Helping me stick to my budget 47% Paying an everyday low price for items I need 44% Making me feel like I'm a "smart" shopper 43% Opportunity to use signage, rounded price points to help shoppers budget at Walmart? 53% 56% 57% 23% Competitively priced private brands 77% 19% Knowing that the items I need/want to buy will be in stock 81% 10% High-quality private brands 90% 9% Broad selection of national/name brands 0% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, May 2013 55% 10% 91% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 29 Table of Contents • Shopper Penetration – Penetration by channel, banner – Demographic profile • Shopper Motivations – Financial concerns – Spending intentions – Reasons to shop less – Motives to visit • Shopping Behaviors – Trips, trip type, and baskets – Where else Walmart store shoppers shop • Brand Position – Value demands and perceived price leadership – Perceptions of Walmart’s offer and position versus dollar • Growth Platforms – Neighborhood Market – Online & mobile reach © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 30 Growth Platforms Rolling out Neighborhood Markets and investing considerably in its digital presence, Walmart is building an ecosystem of formats and channels to reach its audience how ever they would like to shop. • Neighborhood Market shoppers are as likely to make stock-up trips at the store as fill-in, highlighting opportunity to articulate the banner’s complementary role to the Supercenter as it expands in core Walmart markets. • Reflective of the store locations, Neighborhood Market’s base also is slightly more urban. As these shoppers are introduced to Walmart, watch for opportunity to hook them into the retailer’s wider offering online. • As the retailer develops its digital reach, a key opportunity is to support website trip frequency and convert its in-store shoppers. Also watch for opportunity to augment the Supercenter experience with mobile tools that offer specific utility. Source: Kantar Retail research, store visits, analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 31 Neighborhood Market’s Reach Is Growing With continued store expansion, this format now reaches across roughly half of the states. Accordingly, its shopper penetration has more than doubled since the start of 2011. Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January 2011 – September 2013, Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 32 Shoppers Are More Urban, Hispanic & Younger Compared with Supercenters, Neighborhood Market attracts a more diverse and cosmopolitan crowd. Its wider reach with younger cohorts also suggests greater opportunity to interact with these shoppers via new media. Demographic Profile of Past Four-Week Walmart Supercenter and Neighborhood Market Shoppers* <$25K $25K - $49.9K Annual HH $50K - $74.9K Income $75K - $99.9K $100K+ Kids at Home Children under 19 at home Generation Y (born 1982 to 2002) Generation X (born 1965 to 1981) Generation Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964) Seniors (born before 1946) Hispanic Yes Rural Small Town Locale Large Town Suburb/Commuter Town Urban/City Walmart Supercenter 29% 28% 18% 10% 16% 28% 14% 31% 36% 19% 15% 18% 21% 15% 37% 10% Neighborhood Market 30% 27% 18% 9% 16% 29% 18% 36% 29% 16% 21% 8% 11% 16% 46% 18% Note there is no difference in affluence or presence of children, indicating that low price value messaging and family appeals are just as important to Neighborhood Market shoppers. *in states where Neighborhood Market was present as of January 2011 Bolding/highlighting indicates a significant difference between Walmart Supercenter and Neighborhood Market shoppers (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January-September 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 33 Trips Are Divided Between Stock-Up and Fill-In While less of a stock-up destination than the Supercenter, Neighborhood Market balances to serve both grocery stock-ups and fill-in missions. In contrast, Dollar General’s position is clearly articulated as a fill-in destination. Given the trip types that each format serves, is Neighborhood Market positioned to replace shoppers’ trips to dollar stores? To the Supercenter? *Analysis for all three retailers limited to states in which Neighborhood Market was present as of October 2013 Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, Aug/Nov 2012, Feb/May/Aug 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 34 The Basket Is Smaller, More Food Focused Relative to Supercenters, Neighborhood Market’s basket is ~12% smaller, with a decreased emphasis of household items, consumables, and general merchandise. Its lower ring is partly offset by its higher trip frequency. $101 $89 Opportunity to aid assortment refinement in household essentials and HBC, considering that Neighborhood Market dedicates ample space to these areas Avg Trips per Month: 5.2 5.5 *Note: Analysis for all three banners is limited to states in which Neighborhood Market was present as of October 2013 Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, Aug/Nov 2012 and Feb/May/Aug 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 35 Cross-Shopping Across a Host of Competitors The range of formats that Neighborhood Market shoppers also frequent indicates that this box serves as more of a complement than an anchor store. Top 25 Retailers Cross-Shopped by Neighborhood Market Shoppers* Walmart/WMSC Walgreens Amazon.com Target/SuperTarget CVS/pharmacy Dollar Tree Dollar General The Home Depot Lowe's JCPenney Family Dollar Sub-Subnet - Kroger Kohl's Sam's Club Best Buy Macy's eBay.com Bed Bath & Beyond Bath & Body Works 7-Eleven Kmart/Big Kmart Barnes & Noble Big Lots PetSmart Office Depot % NM Shoppers CrossShopped Retailer Index vs. All Shoppers 79% 60% 56% 52% 46% 43% 43% 43% 39% 37% 37% 36% 34% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27% 27% 25% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 105 144 115 144 147 151 133 138 121 148 174 113 141 141 162 179 145 182 164 232 191 159 196 144 186 Competitors that Neighborhood Market particularly overlaps and over-indexes with: *in states where Neighborhood Market was present as of January 2011 Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January-September 2013, Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 36 Assessing Walmart.com’s Reach While Walmart.com’s audience reach outpaces store-based contenders, such as Target.com, Amazon.com remains an accelerating leader in the channel. Given that Walmart.com’s monthly growth rate has flattened recently, anticipate greater attention to supporting its presence and promotions. Walmart.com Amazon.com Target.com Unique Website Visitors, Monthly Walmart.com Amazon.com Unique Visits (YOY Growth Rate) Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 1% 38% 4% 3% 35% 7% -1% 31% 4% Target.com 160 128.9 Unique Visitors (in millions) 140 120 98.6 100 84.9 80 60 58.2 57.4 48.1 38.4 40 37.7 36.8 20 0 Source: Compete, Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 37 Opportunity to Convert Store Shoppers Though Walmart shoppers are just as likely to shop and buy online as others, they are much more likely to frequent Amazon.com than Walmart.com. Shopping Frequency on Walmart.com and Amazon.com 100% 90% 23% 24% 36% 80% 47% 70% 60% 32% 33% Never 50% 40% 40% 30% Monthly 34% 23% 22% Weekly 20% 10% 8% 10% All Shoppers Walmart Shoppers 0% All Shoppers Walmart Shoppers 15% 12% 21% 21% Less than monthly Amazon.com Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, July 2013; Kantar Retail analysis Walmart.com Also explore ways to help Walmart.com drive repeat trip frequency, as relatively few are regular visitors © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 38 Walmart.com Shoppers Are Attractive Relative to all Walmart shoppers, Walmart.com’s shopper is younger and more likely to have kids. Contrary to popular stereotypes, they are not more affluent or urban, signifying that online appeals should be refined accordingly. All Walmart Shoppers vs. Walmart.com Shoppers Consider targeting Walmart.com appeals to these young families instore by connecting to categories or media that they particularly seek. All Walmart Shoppers Walmart.com Shoppers <$25K 27% 26% $25K - $49.9K 27% 27% Annual HH $50K - $74.9K Income 18% 18% $75K - $99.9K 11% 11% $100K+ 17% 19% Non- MSA/ MSA <500K 34% 35% MSA 500K - 1,999K 22% 22% MSA 2M+ 43% 43% Children under 19 at home 28% 32% No children under 19 at home 72% 68% Gen Y (1982 to 2002) 13% 17% Gen X (1965 to 1981) 31% 34% Boomers (1946 to 1964) 38% 37% Seniors (born before 1946) 18% 12% Yes 12% 13% Market Size Kids in HH Cohort Hispanic Bolding/green highlighting indicates a significant difference between all Walmart Supercenter and Walmart.com shoppers (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January-September 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 39 Its Biggest Online Competitor Is Amazon.com Those shopping on Walmart.com are most likely to also shop Amazon.com, with eBay and Target.com falling behind as distant second and third choices. Top 25 Retailers Cross-Shopped Online by Walmart.com Shoppers Amazon.com eBay.com Target Best Buy JCPenney Kohl's The Home Depot Lowe's Sears Barnes & Noble Macy's Kmart Bed Bath & Beyond Staples Toys "R" Us Old Navy Walgreens Apple Bath & Body Works Sam's Club Zappos.com Victoria's Secret/Pink CVS/pharmacy QVC Office Depot Jan-Sept 2007 44% 43% 36% 30% 25% 15% 21% 17% 16% 18% 11% 15% 13% 15% 13% 13% 9% 5% n/a 10% n/a 9% 7% 9% 15% Jan-Sept 2013 73% 39% 30% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 16% 16% 16% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% PPD 2013 vs. 2007 29.1 -4.3 -5.9 -6.1 -1.8 6.6 0.1 3.2 0.3 -1.9 5.5 -1.2 -0.2 -3.0 -1.6 -1.0 2.2 5.4 n/a -1.0 n/a -0.6 1.4 -1.1 -6.9 • Walmart.com cross-shopping down from 2007: – eBay – Target.com – Category specialists (e.g., Best Buy, Office Depot) • Walmart.com cross-shopping up from 2007: – Amazon.com – Department stores (e.g., Macy’s, Kohl’s) – Lowe’s – Drugstores – Apple Bolding/green highlighting indicates a significant year-to-year difference (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January- September 2007 and 2013, Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 40 Online Is Also Enhancing the Store Experience Walmart shoppers are as likely as others to have a smartphone, enabling digital interactions in the store. The retailer’s shoppers are particularly likely to use their device to seek advice and search for coupons. Given the popularity of these various shopping activities, consider ways to connect these actions to trip planning for the Supercenter. Note: Boxes indicate activities in which Walmart shoppers are significantly more likely to engage vs. all shoppers (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape,®, March 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 41 Robin Sherk Director, Retail Insights Robin.Sherk@KantarRetail.com 501 Boylston Street Suite 6101 Boston, MA 02116 F +1 630 245 5647 www.KantarRetailiq.com Rachel McGuire Senior Analyst Rachel.McGuire@KantarRetail.com 585 S. Front Street Suite 50 Columbus, OH 43215 F +1 630 245 5647 www.KantarRetailiq.com © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail