Chapter 2 The Dynamic Environment of International Trade Top Ten 2000 U.S. Trading Partners ($ billions) Country 2-2 U.S. Exports Canada Mexico Japan China Germany United Kingdom South Korea Taiwan France Singapore Irwin/McGraw-Hill $176.4 111.7 65.3 16.3 29.3 41.5 27.9 24.4 21.0 17.4 U.S. Imports Total Surplus/ Deficit $229.2 135.9 146.5 100.0 558.7 43.5 40.3 40.5 29.0 19.6 $405.6 247.6 211.8 116.3 88.0 85.0 68.2 64.9 50.0 37.0 -$52.8 -24.2 -81.3 -83.8 -29.5 -1.9 -12.4 -16.1 -8.0 -2.2 Copyright©2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. U.S. Multinational in Europe - 1960’s 2-3 Fifteen years from now the world’s third greatest industrial power, just after the United States and Russia, may not be Europe, but American industry in Europe.J.S. Servan Schreiber: What Happened? Irwin/McGraw-Hill Le Defi American, 1967 Copyright©2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserve. The Nationality of the World’s 100 Largest Industrial Corporations (by country of origin) 2-4 1963 1979 1984 1990 1993 1995 1996 2000 United States 67 47 47 33 32 24 24 36 Germany Britain France Japan Italy Netherlands-United Kingdom Netherlands Switzerland Argentina Belgium Brazil Canada India Kuwait Mexico Venezuela South Korea Sweden South Africa Spain Turkey China 13 7 4 3 2 2 1 1 --------------- 13 7 11 7 3 2 3 1 -1 1 2 --1 1 ------- 8 5 5 12 3 2 1 2 1 1 -3 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 ---- 12 6 10 18 4 2 1 3 --1 ---1 1 2 2 1 2 --- 14 4 6 23 4 2 1 3 --1 ---1 1 4 1 -2 1 -- 14 1 12 37 3 2 2 3 --------2 ------ 13 2 13 29 4 2 2 5 ------1 1 4 ------ 12 5 11 22 3 -5 3 -1 -----------2 Irwin/McGraw-Hill U.S. Current Account by Major Components, 1990-1999 ($ billions) 1983 2-5 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Merchandise Trade a. Exports $201.8 $219.9 $215.9 $224.0 $246.6 $319.9 $362.1 $389.3 $416.9 $440.4 b. Imports 268.9 332.4 498.3 491.0 536.5 589.4 c. Balance -67.1 -112.5 -122.2 -144.5 -160.3 -126.5 -115.2 -109.0 -74.1 -96.1 -132.5 338.1 368.5 409.9 446.4 477.4 $456.9 Business Services a. Exports 42.3 44.3 46.2 51.8 59.4 69.1 116.5 136.6 153.7 164.4 174.5 b. Imports 35.8 42.3 47.2 51.0 58.0 63.2 86.9 98.7 101.6 104.4 112.7 c. Balance +6.6 +2.0 -1.0 +0.8 +1.4 +5.9 +29.6 +37.9 +52.1 +60.0 +61.8 Irwin/McGraw-Hill SOURCES: Survey of Current Business, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.stat-usa.gov/BEN/heal/sch.html. Februarly 1998 U.S. Current Account by Major Components, 1983-96 ($ billions) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 85.9 67.4 +18.5 88.8 62.9 +25.9 90.1 67.0 +23.1 103.8 83.4 +20.4 108.2 105.6 +2.6 152.5 138.9 +13.6 160.3 139.6 +20.7 136.9 122.1 +14.8 114.4 109.9 +4.5 113.9 109.0 +4.0 360.6 375.0 424.8 507.8 641.4 696.8 717.0 731.4 755.6 498.6 565.3 -123.6 -140.5 629.6 -121.8 718.2 -76.7 754.9 -58.1 730.7 -13.7 767.3 -35.9 827.3 -71.7 -13.4 -13.6 -26.1 -33.7 +6.7 -31.9 -32.0 -138.9 -153.9 -135.4 -102.8 -91.8 -7.0 -67.8 -103.7 International Investment Income 2-6 a. Receipts b. Payments c. Balance 77.3 52.4 +24.9 Total Goods and Services a. Exports 334.4 360.8 b. Imports c. Balance 371.2 -36.8 455.6 460.7 -94.8 -100.1 Net unilateral transfers Current account balance Irwin/McGraw-Hill -9.5 -46.2 -12.2 -15.0 -107.0 -115.1 -15.3 SOURCES: Survey of Current Business, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.stat-usa.gov/BEN/heal/sch.html. February 1998. Buying Boom for Asia, 1995-2000 What the added middle class will buy (In million) 2-7 Between 1993 and 1995 2000 Bedrooms 32 116 Living Rooms 16 58 Kitchens 16 58 Bathrooms 32 116 1,200 4,350 Large appliances 16 58 Televisions 24 87 Telephones 24 87 Cars 16 58 Living space (sq.m.) Irwin/McGraw-Hill 73.3 Millions of households approaching $18,000 per year buying power Indexed to Singapore prices 32.5 14.4 1991 1995 2000 SOURCE: Bill Saporito, “Where the Global Action Is.” Fortune, Autumn-Winter 1993, p.64. What Would One U.S. Dollar Buy? (Selected Years) 1985 1987 1988 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2-8 British Pound 0.86 0.67 0.54 0.56 0.66 0.68 0.63 0.64 0.59 0.62 0.68 French Franc 9.6 7.55 5.4 5.29 5.67 5.55 4.95 5.12 5.94 6.49 7.28 Japanese Yen 250.23 123.32 123.70 126.70 111.08 102.18 93.96 108.78 129.15 102.58 112.21 Swiss Franc 2.25 2.07 1.29 1.41 1.48 1.37 1.18 1.24 1.43 EURO Mexico Peso 0.37 2.21 2.28 3.12 3.11 5.31 6.45 7.60 7.92 1.58 1.68 0.99 1.11 9.43 9.47 * Foreign Exchange Rates for 1999 and 2000 are the average rate pf exchange in December. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Source: Adapted from www.stat-usa.gov The Price of Protectionism Industry 2-9 Textiles and apparel Total Costs to Consumers (in $ millions) Number of Jobs Saved Cost per Job Saved $27,000 640,000 Carbon Steel 6,800 9,000 $ 750,000 Autos 5,800 55,000 $ 105,000 Dairy products 5,500 25,000 $ 220,000 Shipping 3,000 11,000 $ 270,000 Meat 1,800 11,000 $ 160,000 Irwin/McGraw-Hill $ 42,000 SOURCE: Michael McFadden, “Protectionism Can’t Protect Jobs,” Fortune, May11, 1987, pp. 125. The Effects of Tariffs 2-10 Increase Inflationary pressures. Special interests’ privileges. Government control and political considerations in economic matters. The number of tariffs they beget via reciprocity. Weaken Balance-of-payments positions. Supply-and-demand patterns. International understanding (they can start trade wars). Restrict Manufacturer’ supply sources. Choices available to consumers Competition. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Types of Non-tariff Barriers Specific Limitations on Trade: 2-11 Quotas Import Licensing requirements Proportion restrictions of foreign to domestic goods (local content requirements) Minimum import price limits Embargoes Customs and Administrative Entry Procedures: Valuation systems Antidumping practices Tariff classifications Documentation requirements Fees Irwin/McGraw-Hill Types of Non-tariff Barriers Standards: 2-12 Standard disparities Intergovernmental acceptances of testing methods and standards Packaging, labeling, marking and safety standards Government Participation in Trade: Government procurement policies Export subsidies Countervailing duties Domestic assistance programs Irwin/McGraw-Hill Types of Non-tariff Barriers Charges on imports: 2-13 Prior import deposit subsidies Administrative fees Special supplementary duties Import credit discriminations Variable levies Border taxes Others: Voluntary export restraints Orderly marketing agreements Irwin/McGraw-Hill SOURCE: A.D. Cao, “Nontariff Barriers to U.S. Manufactured Exports,” The Columbia Journal of World Business, Summer 1980, P.94. Monetary Barriers Blocked Currency 2-14 Differential Exchange Rate Government Approval to Secure Foreign Exchange Exchange Permit Irwin/McGraw-Hill World Trade Regulation General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 2-15 World Trade Organization (WTO) Irwin/McGraw-Hill What WTO Means to Different Industries Gainers 2-16 Banks will be allowed to compete freely in South Korea and other places where they are restricted. Insurance companies will be able to sell policies in India, one of the Worlds most tightly closed markets. Movies will have better protection from Thai film counterfeiters. Pharmaceuticals will have better protection from Argentine imitators. Computer software makers will have better protection from Brazilians who rip off copyrighted programs. Irwin/McGraw-Hill SOURCE: Adapted from “What free trade will mean to different Industries,” Fortune, August 26, 1991, P.92 What WTO Means to Different Industries Losers 2-17 Glassware tariffs as high as 30 percent on inexpensive drinking glasses will be reduced, threatening some 40,000 jobs. Textiles will gradually lose quotas and tariffs that protect 1.1 million U.S. workers - and add 50 percent to wholesale prices of clothing. Peanuts will lose quotas that limit imports to a handful and that protect 19,000 American farmers. Dairy imports of foreign cheese, now limited to 19,000 tons a year, will go up, hurting 240,000 U.S. farmers. Sugar import ceilings, now 25 percent of the nine million tons the United States uses each year, will go, threatening 11,000 sugar beet and cane growers. Irwin/McGraw-Hill SOURCE: Adapted from “What free trade will mean to different Industries,” Fortune, August 26, 1991, P.92. Global Financial Institutions International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2-18 World Bank Group Irwin/McGraw-Hill Nontariff Barriers Quotas Procurement Policies – must “buy American” unless not available. 2-18 Restrictive Customs Procedures – rules for classifying products and levying import duties. Selective Monetary Controls & Discriminatory Exchange Rate Policies – may require importers to place on deposit (no interest) and amount equal to the value of the goods. Restrictive Administrative & Technical Regulations – antidumping, safety & health Discriminatory Irwin/McGraw-Hill