Chapter 1 Picturing Distributions with Graphs Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 1 Question: What is the average height of students in this class? Answer: Easy, ask everyone the height, and then find the average (mean). Question: What is the average height of students in University of Utah? Answer: Seems complicated. Too many people, it will be difficult to ask everyone. Ask a sufficiently large number of people (but still small compared to the total size of students) and make an estimate using tools from STATISTICS. 2 3/20/2016 1. How do we select the people to ask? How many people should we ask? 2. How do we make an estimate ? 3. Our estimate will be probably be a little different from the true value. Can we say how close it is to the true value? 3 3/20/2016 Statistics Statistics is a science that involves the extraction of information from numerical data obtained during an experiment or from a sample. It involves the design of the experiment or sampling procedure, the collection and analysis of the data, and making inferences (statements) about the population based upon information in a sample. Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 4 5 name major megan ryan jacob antony ali guillermo hao nicos susan bs egr ba bs egr bs bs ba ba score gpa 25 35 40 50 22 24 31 35 24 3 2.5 3.5 2.5 2.6 2.3 3.4 3.3 2.9 3/20/2016 Individuals and Variables Individuals the objects described by a set of data may be people, animals, or things Variable any characteristic of an individual can take different values for different individuals Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 6 Variables Places an individual into one of several groups or categories Takes numerical values for which arithmetic operations such as adding and averaging make sense Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 7 Case Study The Effect of Hypnosis on the Immune System reported in Science News, Sept. 4, 1993, p. 153 Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 8 Case Study The Effect of Hypnosis on the Immune System Objective: To determine if hypnosis strengthens the disease-fighting capacity of immune cells. Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 9 Case Study 65 college students. 33 easily hypnotized 32 not easily hypnotized white blood cell counts measured all students viewed a brief video about the immune system. Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 10 Case Study Students randomly assigned to one of three conditions subjects hypnotized, given mental exercise subjects relaxed in sensory deprivation tank control group (no treatment) Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 11 Case Study white blood cell counts re-measured after one week the two white blood cell counts are compared for each group results hypnotized group showed larger jump in white blood cells “easily hypnotized” group showed largest immune enhancement Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 12 Case Study Variables measured quantitative Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. Pre-study white blood cell count Post-study white blood cell count 13 Case Study Weight Gain Spells Heart Risk for Women “Weight, weight change, and coronary heart disease in women.” W.C. Willett, et. al., vol. 273(6), Journal of the American Medical Association, Feb. 8, 1995. (Reported in Science News, Feb. 4, 1995, p. 108) Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 14 Case Study Weight Gain Spells Heart Risk for Women Objective: To recommend a range of body mass index (a function of weight and height) in terms of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in women. Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 15 Case Study Study started in 1976 with 115,818 women aged 30 to 55 years and without a history of previous CHD. Each woman’s weight (body mass) was determined. Each woman was asked her weight at age 18. Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 16 Case Study The cohort of women were followed for 14 years. The number of CHD (fatal and nonfatal) cases were counted (1292 cases). BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 17 Case Study Variables measured categorical Incidence of coronary heart disease Smoker or nonsmoker Family history of heart disease Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 18 Distribution Tells what values a variable takes and how often it takes these values Can be a table, graph, or function Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 19 Displaying Distributions Categorical variables Pie charts Bar graphs Quantitative variables Histograms Stemplots (stem-and-leaf plots) Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 20 Class Make-up on First Day Data Table Year Count Percent Freshman 18 41.9% Sophomore 10 23.3% Junior 6 14.0% Senior 9 20.9% Total 43 100.1% Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 21 Class Make-up on First Day Pie Chart Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 22 Class Make-up on First Day Bar Graph Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 23 Example: U.S. Solid Waste (2000) Data Table Material Weight (million tons) Percent of total Food scraps 25.9 11.2 % Glass 12.8 5.5 % Metals 18.0 7.8 % Paper, paperboard 86.7 37.4 % Plastics 24.7 10.7 % Rubber, leather, textiles 15.8 6.8 % Wood 12.7 5.5 % Yard trimmings 27.7 11.9 % Other 7.5 3.2 % Total 231.9 100.0 % BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 24 Example: U.S. Solid Waste (2000) Pie Chart Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 25 Example: U.S. Solid Waste (2000) Bar Graph Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 50 Histograms For quantitative variables that take many values Divide the possible values into (we will only consider equal widths) Count how many observations fall in each interval (may change to percents) Draw picture representing distribution Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 27 Histograms: Class Intervals How many intervals? One rule is to calculate the square root of the sample size, and round up. Size of intervals? Divide range of data (maxmin) by number of intervals desired, and round to convenient number Pick intervals so each observation can only fall in exactly one interval (no overlap) Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 28 Case Study Weight Data Introductory Statistics class Spring, 1997 Virginia Commonwealth University Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 29 Weight Data 192 152 135 110 128 180 260 170 165 150 Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 110 120 185 165 212 119 165 210 186 100 195 170 120 185 175 203 185 123 139 106 180 130 155 220 140 157 150 172 175 133 170 130 101 180 187 148 106 180 127 124 215 125 194 30 Weight Data: Frequency Table Weight Group 100 - <120 120 - <140 140 - <160 160 - <180 180 - <200 200 - <220 220 - <240 240 -<260 260 -<280 Weight Group 100 - <120 120 - <140 140 - <160 160 - <180 180 - <200 200 - <220 220 - <240 240 - <260 260 - <280 sqrt(53) = 7.2, BPS - 5th Ed. Count Count 7 12 7 8 12 4 1 0 1 7 12 7 8 12 4 1 0 1 ; range (260100=160) / 8 = Chapter 1 31 Number of students Weight Data: Histogram 100 120 140 160 180 200 Weight 220 240 260 280 * Left endpoint is included in the group, right endpoint is not. BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 32 Examining the Distribution of Quantitative Data Overall pattern of graph Deviations from overall pattern Shape of the data Center of the data Spread of the data (Variation) Outliers Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 33 Shape of the Data Symmetric bell shaped other symmetric shapes Asymmetric right skewed left skewed Unimodal, bimodal Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 34 Symmetric Bell-Shaped BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 35 Symmetric Mound-Shaped BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 36 Symmetric Uniform BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 37 Asymmetric Skewed to the Left BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 38 Asymmetric Skewed to the Right BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 39 Outliers Extreme values that fall outside the overall pattern May occur naturally May occur due to error in recording May occur due to error in measuring Observational unit may be fundamentally different Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 40 Stemplots (Stem-and-Leaf Plots) For quantitative variables Separate each observation into a (first part of the number) and a (the remaining part of the number) Write the stems in a vertical column; draw a vertical line to the right of the stems Write each leaf in the row to the right of its stem; order leaves if desired Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 41 1 2 Weight Data 192 152 135 110 128 180 260 170 165 150 Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 110 120 185 165 212 119 165 210 186 100 195 170 120 185 175 203 185 123 139 106 180 130 155 220 140 157 150 172 175 133 170 130 101 180 187 148 106 180 127 124 215 125 194 42 Weight Data: Stemplot (Stem & Leaf Plot) BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 10 11 12 13 14 5 15 16 2 17 18 19 20 21 2 22 23 24 25 26 192 152 135 43 Weight Data: Stemplot (Stem & Leaf Plot) BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 0166 009 0034578 00359 08 00257 555 000255 000055567 245 3 025 0 0 44 Extended Stem-and-Leaf Plots If there are very few stems (when the data cover only a very small range of values), then we may want to create more stems by splitting the original stems. Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 45 Extended Stem-and-Leaf Plots : if all of the data values were between 150 and 179, then we may choose to use the following stems: 15 15 16 16 17 17 Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. Leaves 0-4 would go on each upper stem (first “15”), and leaves 5-9 would go on each lower stem (second “15”). 46 Time Plots A time plot shows behavior over time. Time is always on the horizontal axis, and the variable being measured is on the vertical axis. Look for an overall pattern (trend), and deviations from this trend. Connecting the data points by lines may emphasize this trend. Look for patterns that repeat at known regular intervals (seasonal variations). Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 47 Class Make-up on First Day (Fall Semesters: 1985-1993) Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 48 Average Tuition (Public vs. Private) Chapter BPS 1 - 5th Ed. 49