Population, Housing, &
Employment
Orange County, California
Presented: May 2, 2003
Victoria Basolo, Ph.D., AICP
Department of Planning, Policy, and Design
University of California, Irvine
POPULATION
Population, Percent Change 1990-2000
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Orange
Los
Riverside
San
San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Population Density, 1990 & 2000
4000
3600
3200
2800
2400
2000
1990
1600
2000
1200
Persons per
square mile
800
400
0
Orange
Los
Riverside
San
San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Population by Age Groups, 1990 & 2000
100%
90%
80%
70%
65 and over
60%
45-64
50%
25-44
40%
18-24
Under 18
30%
20%
10%
0%
Orange
Orange
1990
2000
Riverside
Riverside
1990
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
San Diego
San Diego
1990
2000
Population Projections, 2000-2020
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
Orange
2500000
Riverside
2000000
San Diego
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2000
2005
Source: California Department of Finance, 2000
2010
2015
2020
Orange County Population Summary
• Orange County grew by 18.1% from 1990 to
2000, faster than the State as a whole
• Over the next 20 years, the County is
expected to grow by an additional 22.4%
• Much of the increase in population will be
from natural increase, existing residents
maturing through the life cycle
HOUSING
Housing Units, Percent Change 1990-2000
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Orange
Los
Angeles
Riverside
San
San Diego
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Homeownership Rates, 1990 & 2000
70%
60%
50%
40%
1990
30%
2000
20%
10%
0%
Orange
Los Riverside San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Percent Single-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
1990
30%
2000
20%
10%
0%
Orange
Los Riverside San San Diego CA
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Percent Multi-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000*
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
1990
20%
2000
15%
10%
5%
0%
Orange
Los Riverside San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
*Includes mobile homes
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
CA
Owner Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
1990
2000
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Orange
Los
Riverside
San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Rental Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
1990
2000
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Orange
Los Riverside San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Median Housing Value and Rent, 1990 & 2000
30%
25%
20%
Median Value
15%
Median Contract Rent
10%
5%
0%
Orange
Riverside
San Diego
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Housing Costs
1
MSA
Orange (County)
San Bernardino-Riverside
San Diego
2
3
3
Index Rank FMR FMR
FMR
4th qtr.
Rents Rents % Increase
2001
2001 2002 2001-2002
37
50.8
22.4
19
37
8
1046 1097
621 656
896 1012
1
Housing Opportunity Index (NAHB, 2002): Share of homes affordable to median income
2
Rank of MSA out of 181 regions across the nation (NAHB, 2002)
3
Fair Market Rent for a 2 bedroom unit (HUD, 2002)
4.9%
5.6%
12.9%
Overcrowding Rates, 1990 & 2000
25%
20%
15%
1990
10%
2000
5%
0%
Orange
Los
Riverside
San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 3.
CA
Orange County Housing Summary
• Orange County housing stock grew by 10.8%
from 1990 to 2000, lagging behind demand
as are many of CA housing markets
• In 2000, vacancy rates were very low at less
than 1% for owner housing and 3% for renter
housing
• Median housing value increased by about 7%
and Median contract rent at just over 18%
from 1990 to 2000
• Orange County housing is very expensive
• Overcrowded units increased by 15.7% in the
1990s.
EMPLOYMENT
Employment Change, 1990 to 2000
Orange County
Los Angeles
Riverside
San Bernardino
San Diego
California
1990
2000
% Change
1,292,472
4,203,792
488,257
591,371
1,145,266
13,996,309
1,338,838
3,953,415
602,856
661,272
1,241,258
14,718,928
3.59%
-5.96%
23.47%
11.82%
8.38%
5.16%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Unemployment Rates, 1990 & 2000
7%
6%
5%
4%
1990
3%
2000
2%
1%
0%
Orange
CA
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Orange County Employment by Industry, 2000
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining
Arts, Entertainment, Recr., Accom. &
Food Serv.
Construction
Education, Health, & Social Services
3.6%
5.0%
5.0% 0.4%
8.3%
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
6.1%
Information
11.2%
16.1%
Manufacturing
2.9%
12.6%
17.0%
2.9%
8.8%
Professional, Scientific, Mngmnt., Admin.,
& Waste Mngmnt Serv.
Public Administration
Retail
Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census 2000, SF 3
Other Services
Percent Work and Live in Same County,
1990 & 2000
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
1990
2000
20%
10%
0%
Orange
Los
Riverside
San
San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Orange County Employment Summary
• The number of Orange County resident
employees grew by 3.59% from 1990 to
2000, a much smaller increase than most of
the surrounding counties
• Unemployment increased slightly from 1990
to 2000
• Residents are employed in a diverse number
of industries suggesting an overall diversified
economy
OVERALL OUTLOOK
Growth, Housing, and the Economy
•Existing
housing needs are unmet
and future population growth
creates additional needs for
housing
•
•
Economy’s diversity and high
tech cluster presents the need for
higher middle income housing as
well as housing affordable to
service workers
•Identified
•Housing
•Housing
development requires
integrative, collective effort among
business, residents, and public
officials
Housing production lags far
behind demand and market “catch
up” unlikely
as “High Tech”
Economy by Landis & Elmer
(2001)--high tech economies
associated with higher cost
housing
considered the most
important public policy issue by
only 6% of OC residents (UCI, OC
Annual Survey, 2000), but cited as
#1 barrier to doing business in OC
(UCI, 2001 OC Executive Survey)
Innovations Through Integrated,
Collective Action
•
Cooperative development of programs to link housing and jobs
– Loans to employees who stay longer terms with employers and live close to work
(sliding scale from full repayment to fully forgiven)
– Rental development agreements among employers, developers, and cities/counties
(lease up at market and below market rents guaranteed for period of years)
– Development incentives to developers building mixed-income housing near job
centers (loans, increased density, land at reduced cost)
•
Cooperative Housing Development Fund
– Regional fund receiving donations and stream of revenue from employee tax and
sales tax
– Land Trust (non profit) receiving donations and purchasing properties for permanent
affordability
•
Cooperative Effort for State Legislation
– State tax credits for businesses with employer-assisted housing programs
(certified by staff overseeing regional housing fund)
– State tax credits for landowners (landlords and owners) who demonstrate proximity of
tenant to place of work