Temas en
Geociencias
• Clima regional y sus vínculos con climas
remotos
• El aporte de programas científicos
internacionales
• Clima y ecosistemas
Elementos Claves del Clima de
America del Sur
SALLJ
MONZON
TORMENTAS
CONVECTIVAS
TORMENTAS
SINOPTICAS
I
CIRCULATION ANOMALIES DURING W ET AND D RY P ERIODS IN SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA DUR ING T HE AUSTRAL SUMMER (OCTOBER - MARCH)
Periods with e nhanc ed convection over
SESA
 weakened SA CZ
H
+ T.
anom
H
L
- T. a nom
 warm- core ant icyclonic circulation
ano maly ove r easte rn subt ropical
South A merica.
 cold-core cyclonic circulation ano maly
ove r southe rn South A merica
 intens ified Chaco low and abov e
ave rage advect ion of warm and h umid
air from the A mazon bas in
 intens ified subt ropical jet ove r easte rn
S.A.
Suppressed convection over SESA
 strong SA CZ
L
- T. a nom
H
L
+ T.
anom
Diaz & Aceituno, 2002
 cold-core cyclonic circulation ano maly
ove r easte rn subt ropical South
America.
 warm- core ant icyclonic circulation
ano maly ove r southe rn South A merica
 weak Chaco low and reduced
advect ion of warm and hu mid air from
the A mazon bas in
 weak subt ropical jet ove r easte rn S.A.
Indian Ocean Events can affect the
South American Climate
Sep-Nov composite SST anomalies
for 4 pure positive IOD events.
Sep-Nov composite of 200 hPa
eddy streamfunction anomalies
for pure IOD events from
reanalysis data
Chen, Behera and Yamagata, GRL (2008)
El episodio de humo del 15-20 Abril 2008
Hugo Berbery, Hector Ciappesoni y Eugenia Kalnay (GRL 2008)
Visible Satellite Picture
Model domain (WRF-ARW yellow box)
6 km grid spacing
Simulation uses GFS analysis as BCs;
Forecasts use GFS forecasts as BCs
Low level wind convergence (blue) depicting the riverland Breeze during daytime
The river helped to
channel the lowlevel flow, and an
in-land wind
component
increased the
effect of the
smoke near coastal
areas.
The duration of
the event could
have been
predicted at least
5 days in advance
due to the
persistence of
the flow
Temas en
Geociencias
• Clima regional y sus vínculos con climas
remotos
• El aporte de programas científicos
internacionales
• Clima y ecosistemas
VOCALS Targets
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• Influences on and
from remote climates
• Better simulation by
atmosphere-ocean
GCMs
• Unresolved issues in
heat and nutrient
budgets
• Important links
between clouds and
aerosol
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OCT -NOV 08
VOCALS REx: Ships
Oct 2- Nov 3, 2008
80°W
13°S
79°W
78°W
77°W
76°W
Cerro Azul
75°W
74°W
13°S
Punta Cóndor
VOCALS - PERU 2008
Tambo de Mora
Pisco
Peninsula Paracas
Cruise Track
14°S
14°S
Bahía Independencia
Punta Infiernillos
Punta Caballas
15°S
15°S
San Nicolás
San Juan
Chala
16°S
16°S
17°S
17°S
Nov 6- Nov 29, 2008
18°S
80°W
79°W
78°W
77°W
VOCALS Peru Cruise track
Cr. Olaya 2008/10
76°W
75°W
18°S
74°W
BAe-146
C-130
Multi-platform sampling
along the 20°S cross
section will deliver:
1. A synthesised data
set for testing of climate
model representations
of the SEP boundary
layer.
2. A series of important
case studies
Do-228
Institutions Collaborating in VOCALS
University
Arizona State
Concepción, Ch
CSU
Drexel U.
Hawaii
Manchester UK
Miami
North Carolina State
Oregon State
Reading
U. Arizona
U. Chile
UCLA
U. Colorado
UCSD
U. Leeds UK
U. Washington
U. Wyoming
Research Labs
Brookhaven Nat.
COLA
CNRS/LMD France
IMARPE
IPRC
LEGOS
NASA GSFC
NCAR
NOAA/CIRES
NOAA/GFDL
NRL
Pacific Northwest
Woods Hole
Operational
Centers
BMRC Australia
CPTEC Brazil
ECMWF Int.
JMA Japan
NCEP US
UKMO UK
Funding $25M+
Logistic Support: UCAR JOSS
Temas en
Geociencias
• Clima regional y sus vínculos con climas
remotos
• El aporte de programas científicos
internacionales
• Clima y ecosistemas
Climate and Marine Ecosystems
Regional Climate
And Large Scale Drivers:
Temperature
Atmospheric and oceanic circulation
clouds, precipitation
hydrology, sea ice, rivers,
chemical transport.
pH
Light
Oxygen
Extreme
Events
Nutrients
Productivity
Marine Ecosystems
Contaminant
Loading
Acidification
Coastal
Monitoring +
Assessment
Hypoxia
Coral
Reefs
Fisheries
Harmful
Algal
Blooms
Ecological
Forecasting
Society
Marine
Protected
Areas
Anomalies of (A) global air temperature,
with the long-term increase removed (8); (B)
the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index
(°C), derived from principal component
analysis of North Pacific SST (10); (C) the
atmospheric circulation index (ACI), which
describes the relative dominance of zonal or
meridional atmospheric transport in the
Atlantic-Eurasian region (9); (D)
atmospheric CO2 measured at Mauna Loa
(parts per million) with the long-term
anthropogenic increase removed (7); (E) the
regime indicator series (RIS) that integrates
global sardine and anchovy fluctuations (5);
and (F) a southeastern tropical Pacific
ecosystem index based (19) on (G) seabird
abundance and anchoveta and sardine
landings from Peru. All series have been
smoothed with a 3-year running mean.
Reference: Chavez et al. 2003: Anchovies to Sardines and
Back: Multidecadal Change in the Pacific Ocean, Science
299 (5604), 217.
Hypothetical oscillation with a period of 50 years: Anchovy regime.
California Fisheries:
Ocean Models with resolutions on the order of
a few kms are needed
Chlorophyll A
From ROMS
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Units: mg m-3
Temas en
Geociencias
• Finalmente, hay grandes
incertidumbres sobre los impactos del
cambio climático global sobre regiones
específicas
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
“…warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
IPCC models: DJF Precip
IPCC AR4 models: Scenario 20C3M ; 1949-2003
El área de GEOCIENCIAS
debe ser
bienvenida
al PEDECIBA
Leading Mode of Variability
In the Warm Season
The aircraft
CIRPAS Twin Otter
DoE ASP G-1
NSF C-130
Chemistry and
aerosol, cloud
microphysics,
turbulence
Cloud optical
properties
(imaging
spectrometer)
Precipitation rate, cloud top and
base height, cloud liquid water
path, water vapor column, SST
Drizzle,
cloud
properties
cloud optical
depth and liquid
water path,
aerosol optical
properties,
aerosol optical
properties, SST
NERC Dornier 228
UK FAAM BAe-146
Physical
changes are in
blue, and
biological and
chemical
changes are in
red.
Climate Modeling
AGCM
OGCM
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RAMS
ROMS
Physical Model Hierarchy,
from very high resolution
coastal, to coupled mesoscale,
up to global coupled GCMs
Low level wind convergence (blue) depicting the river-land
Breeze during daytime
Summary:
Simulations were performed with the WRF model with a grid spacing
of 6 km:
(a) A five-day simulation forced by GFS analyses as boundary
conditions;
(b) As (a) but with realistic, high resolution water temperatures;
(c) Five-day forecasts with initial and boundary conditions from the
GFS April 12, 15, and 18 forecasts
The boundary layer over the river remained low most of the time
during the week of the fires
The river helped to channel the low-level flow, and an in-land wind
component increased the effect of the smoke near coastal areas.
A simulation with more realistic water surface temperatures appears
to indicate an even lower boundary layer over parts of the river
The duration of the event could have been predicted at least 5 days in
advance due to the persistence of the flow
Figure 2. Hypothetical oscillation of a regime index
with a period of 50 years. From the early 1950s to
about 1975, the Pacific was cooler than average,
and anchovies dominated. From about 1975 to the
late 1990s, the Pacific was warmer, and sardines
dominated. The spatial patterns of SST and
atmospheric circulation anomalies are shown for
each regime (10). The spatial pattern shows that
warming and cooling are not uniform and that the
eastern Pacific is out of phase with the central North
and South Pacific. Some indices suggest that the
shifts are rapid (dashed), whereas others suggest a
more gradual shift (solid). Regime shifts are
commonly associated with a change in index sign,
but populations may also exhibit changes in
abundance when the index stops increasing or
decreasing. The first empirical orthogonal function
(EOF) of global TOPEX sea surface height (SSH) is
shown above the cool, anchovy regime.
It accounts for 31% of the variance in 18-month low-pass filtered SSH from 1993 through 2001. Low SSH implies a shallow
thermocline and nutricline when the coefficient (blue line) is positive. The coefficient is shown in blue together with surface
chlorophyll anomalies (mg m-3) for the eastern margin of the California Current system from 1989 to 2001 (45), also low-pass
filtered. The high chlorophyll after 1997-98 is consistent with the shallow thermocline of the eastern Pacific. Changes in the
circulation of the subtropical gyre and its boundary currents are also indicated by the first EOF. This basin-scale anticyclonic
(clockwise spinning in the northern hemisphere) gyre maintains a positive gradient in SSH from its center to its periphery. The
changes described by the first EOF after 1997-98 can be interpreted as (i) stronger positive gradients in SSH between the gyre
center and its eastern and southern boundaries that would be associated with stronger anticyclonic flow (stronger southward flow
along the eastern gyre boundary and stronger westward flow along the southern gyre boundary) and (ii) weaker positive gradients
in SSH between the gyre center and its western and northern boundaries that would be associated with weaker anticyclonic flow
(weaker northward flow along the western gyre boundary and weaker eastward flow along the northern gyre boundary). Thus, after
the recent shift evident after 1997-98, a stronger California Current and a weaker Kuroshio Current are indicated.
Figure 3. Synthesis of
Pacific conditions during
the (A) sardine and (B)
anchovy regimes.
Physical changes are in
blue, and biological and
chemical changes are in
red.
California Fisheries
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Models with
increasing
resolution and
decreasing
domain size are
“nested” to allow
for computation.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
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Units oC
September-November composite of rainfall and 850-hPa wind anomalies
during pure positive IOD events for (a) observation and (b) SINTEX-F1
results. Shown values exceed the 95% level of confidence from a t-test.
(c) Indices of central Brazil rain (bar), IOD (blue) and Niño (red).