INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS
2013–2014 Update
Tenth Edition
Chapter Four:
Foreign Policy
Joshua S. Goldstein
Jon C. Pevehouse
U.S. officials watch Osama bin Laden raid, 2011.
4.1 Making Foreign Policy
• Models of Decision Making
•
Individual Decision Makers
•
Group Psychology
•
Crisis Management
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Models of Decision Making
• Rational model
• Alternatives to rational model
Individual Decision Makers
•
Decision makers are individuals.
•
National leaders and rational decisions
•
Individuals: differing values and beliefs, unique personalities
•
Individual vs. rational
•
Impact of the individual
FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS
Foreign policies often deviate from rationality as a result of the
misperceptions and biases of decision makers and populations.
Here, in 2012, North Korea’s new dictator Kim Jong-Un rides a
roller coaster that could symbolize the West’s efforts to curtail his
country’s nuclear weapons program. These weapons will pose a
much greater threat if Kim, who took over in 2011, is an irrational
madman than if he turns out to be a shrewdly rational actor.
Group Psychology
• Positive and negative effects
• Psychological dynamics that occur within groups
• Structure of decision-making process
FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS
Both individual misperception and group psychology encourage
overconfidence and excessive optimism among decision makers.
This general tendency in every government especially marked the
period of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Here, President Bush declares
victory on an aircraft carrier, May 2003.
Crisis Management
• Crises – outcomes and time frames
• Groupthink, psychological stress, sleep deprivation
WORKING UNDER STRESS
Crisis management takes a high toll psychologically and
physiologically. President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia
seems to show this strain in 1992— the beginning of years of civil
war and perpetual crisis in that country. Shevardnadze, formerly a
Soviet foreign minister, had returned to lead his native Georgia
when the Soviet Union dissolved. He left office in 2003 after a
popular uprising against corruption.
4.1 Making Foreign Policy
Q. The rational model of decision-making involves which of
the following sequence of steps?
A. Clarify goals, order goals by importance, list alternatives to achieve goals,
investigate consequences of alternatives, and choose the course of action.
B. Order goals by importance, list alternatives to achieve goals, clarify goals,
investigate consequences of alternatives, and choose the course of action.
C. List alternatives to achieve goals, order goals by importance,
investigate consequences of alternatives, clarify goals, and choose the course
of action.
D. Clarify goals, list alternatives to achieve goals, investigate consequences of
alternatives, order goals by importance, and choose the course of action.
Answer:
A. Clarify goals, order goals by importance, list
alternatives to achieve goals, investigate
consequences of alternatives, and choose the course
of action.
True-False
In the rational model decision making process uncertainty
rarely plays a role.
Answer:
False.
4.2 Domestic Influences
•
Bureaucracies
•
Interest Groups
•
The Military-Industrial Complex
•
Public Opinion
•
Legislatures
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Bureaucracies
•
Diplomats
•
Interagency tensions
Interest Groups
• Coalitions with common interest who attempt to shape
decision outcomes
•
Lobbying
DOMESTIC BREW
Foreign policies are affected by the pulling and tugging of various
domestic interest groups. Legislatures respond to these groups,
constituencies, lobbyists, and media. These interested parties pack
the U.S. Senate confirmation hearing for the new secretary of state,
John Kerry, in 2013.
The Military Industrial Complex
• Interlocking network of governmental agencies,
industrial corporations, and research institutes
• Eisenhower’s concern about “unwarranted”
influence
• Revolving door
Public Opinion
•
Democracies vs. authoritarian governments
•
Propaganda
•
Journalists
•
Levels of public – “mass,” attentive, elite
•
Rally ’round the flag syndrome
•
Diversionary foreign policy
Israeli Prime Minister and Palestinian
negotiator, 2012.
Prime Minister of
Japan, Shinzo Abe
Legislatures
• Relationship with executive – presidential vs.
parliamentary systems
• Power of the Purse
INDIVIDUAL CHOICE
Foreign policy outcomes result from processes at several levels of
analysis, including the roles of individuals. All these levels were in
play in 2011–2013 as Syria went from protest to civil war. In 2012,
this father chose, like many other individuals, to take up arms and
join rebel fighters. The country’s future will be decided in no small
part by the aggregation of many such individual decisions.
4.2 Domestic Politics
Q. Of the following goals, which are pursued by bureaucrats in the
foreign policy decision-making process?
A. Groupthink
B. Liberal analysis
C. National goals
D. Political domination
Answer:
C. National goals
True-False
The planning and pursuit of the Cold War played
in integral role in the conception and growth of
American military-industrial complex.
Answer:
True
Chapter Discussion Question
Given the definitions of groupthink, and using the
example of the Iran-Contra affair, and of the war in
Iraq, what are at least two examples of groupthink
pulled from recent headlines?