The Implications of
Increased Sounding Data in
the Amazon Basin for Global
Climate Models
Summary of field research in Leticia,
Colombia, Feb. 18th – 26th, 2011
Outline
 Assess feasibility of acquiring
sounding data in the Amazon basin
 What is sounding data?
 Why do we need it?
 What are the constraints?
Climate vs. Weather
Weather: recent or current conditions (ex. Cloud cover,
precipitation)
•Short term
Climate: typical weather for a given location
•Long term
•Includes weather extremes
•Ex. Monthly rainfall, snowfall, normal temp extremes
What is Sounding Data?
 Real time data for atmospheric
variables
 Temperature
 Pressure
 Relative Humidity
 Winds
Atmospheric General
Circulation Models (AGCMs)
 Included in Global Climate Models
 AGCMs differ in spatial resolutions
 Variables
 temperature
 pressure
 humidity
 winds
 water and ice condensate in cloud
Limited-Area Models/Regional
Climate Models (RCMs)
 Studying climatic processes and interactions on
scales too fine for typical GCM resolutions.
 RCMs can give more intense events that will be
smoothed in coarser-resolution GCMs.
Environmental
Lapse Rate
 Environmental Lapse
Rate
•the decrease in
temperature with
altitude (-dT/dz or dT/dp)
 Atmospheric layers
are defined by the
change of sign of the
lapse rate
Data Collection Methods
 Surface
 Stations or ships
 Radiosonde
 Tether System
 High – Altitude Balloon
 Satellite
 Microwave Radiation
Radiosondes
 Many varieties
 Include instrument and
ground station
 Some are mobile
 Expendable
 Includes:




Temperature
Relative Humidity
Pressure
Wind
Balloon Sounding Constraints
 Cost
 Mobility
 Accuracy of data
Cost Constraints
Vaisala
AnaSonde
Mobility Constraints
Requirements of Climate Studies
•Temperature
AnaSonde Accuracy
•±2.5°C at ambient temperature
•Relative Humidity
•±2% for 10°C<T<20°C
•±5% for T<10°C
•Pressure
•±2%
Current Findings:
 Christy et al. 2010: What Do Observational Datasets
Say about Modeled Tropospheric Temperature Trends
since 1979?
 Thorne et al. 2011: Tropospheric temperature trends:
history of an ongoing controversy
 Preliminary Manaus analysis: Surface increase
over last 10 years = .5 degrees C
 Sounding to 10km increase over same period is only .15
degrees C
30 Year Sounding Analysis
 Assign weight to each year
at each altitude
 Increments of 100m
 At each altitude, divide the
sum of weight by the sum
of % available
30 Year Sounding Analysis
 Find difference at each
altitude
 Find the average difference
 Find the average of the
monthly trends
Monthly ELR Change
Natal ELR
0.6
ELR Change (deg C)
0.4
0.2
Dry season ELR average change
Wet season ELR average change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
ST average change
ELR average change
Monthly ELR change
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Month
Natal 12Z
MONTH
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
AVERAGE CHANGE
-0.07382 0.109067 -0.14193 -0.12137 -0.15117 -0.49867 0.192574 0.287394 0.058829 0.127673 0.241961 -0.22174
AVERAGE ST
CHANGE
0.189448 0.647745 0.085828 0.755489 0.767018 0.179016 0.813474 0.295206 0.226807 0.871011 0.64614 0.437116
AVERAGE DRY
-0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192
AVERAGE WET
0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005
AVERAGE
-0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593
AVERAGE ST
0.492858 0.492858 0.492858 0.492858 0.492858 0.492858 0.492858 0.492858 0.492858 0.492858 0.492858 0.492858
AVERAGE SURFACE
TEMP
28.69
28.67
28.55
28.15
27.67
26.32
25.64
26.13
27.56
28.44
28.89
28.94
AVERAGE 10KM TEMP
-5.34
-5.09
-4.53
-4.19
-4.2
-4.76
-5.6
-5.16
-4.92
-4.81
-4.9
-5.16
AVERAGE 02KM TEMP
14.71
14.67
15.31
15.48
15.27
14.38
13.53
13.45
13.79
14.57
14.78
13.53
-5.56 -5.51333
-5.37
-5.415 -5.39833
-5.59
-5.71
AVERAGE ELR
-5.85167 -5.82833 -5.70667
-5.815 -5.89333
AVERAGE DRY ELR
-5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556
AVERAGE WET ELR
-5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972
Natal 00Z
MONTH
AVERAGE
CHANGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0.583342 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -0.69287 #DIV/0! 1.2259920.4658121.4963310.865918 #DIV/0!
AVERAGE ST
CHANGE
1.01119 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -0.04101 #DIV/0! 1.0713281.1604341.1665391.162777 #DIV/0!
AVERAGE DRY
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE WET
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE ST
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMP
26.97
27.56
27.46
27.63
26.38
25.39
24.66
24.63
25.1
26.14
26.53
26.83
AVERAGE 10KM
TEMP
-34.53
-33.63
-33.22
-32.43
-32.77
-33.45
-34.85
-34.38
-34.46
-34.14
-33.99
-35.09
AVERAGE 02KM
TEMP
15.43
15.57
15.42
15.65
15.24
13.99
13.73
13.64
13.87
14.95
15.33
15.37
-5.19 -5.10667
-5.22
-5.34 -5.43333 -5.53833
AVERAGE ELR
AVERAGE DRY
ELR
AVERAGE WET
ELR
-5.56667 -5.61667 -5.57833
-5.5 -5.34167 -5.36333
-5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167
-5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675
Further Research
 Accuracy and precision of sensors
 Quantifying uncertainties in sounding data
 Acquiring reliable and cost-effective
sounding data for the Amazon rainforest
 Increase in the amount of data
Acknowledgements
 UM Office of Research and Sponsored Programs
 UM Excellence Fund: Office of the Provost and Vice
President for Academic Affairs
 UM Department of Physics and Astronomy
 Montana Space Grant Consortium
 Entropika
 Anasphere
 Jennifer Fowler