Slowing Arctic Melting: Beginnings
of a Regional Strategy to Mitigate
Climate Change
John Topping, Founder and President, Climate Institute.
A lecture to the Hertog Global Strategy Initiative At Columbia
University
June 13, 2013
S
Record 400ppm CO2 milestone
– 14th May 2013
Forces Occurring
Together to
Accelerate Stress
S Climate change not the only
adverse human or natural
stress affecting ecosystems or
areas in which we live.
S Growing ocean acidification.
S Depletion of fossil aquifers.
S Land degradation.
S Destruction of forests,
especially in the tropical
regions.
Source: Upwell conservation
Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reductions
Attribution: Jeff Masters, Ph.D, Weather Underground (2013)
Momentum Gaining on the
Climate Front
S
China (the leading greenhouse emitter) —
spurred by air quality, climate and trade
competiveness concerns — is moving to
institute a greenhouse cap and trade
system and national carbon tax, and is
now largest investor in renewable energy.
S
U.S., historically source of about a third of
industrial era anthropogenic greenhouse
emissions, seems on a downward
trajectory despite impasse in Washington.
S
Increased efficiency (in energy use and
vehicles), state and city renewable energy
incentives, and natural gas for coal
substitution are helping drive this trend.
S
A draft ANSI voluntary Life Cycle
Assessment standard providing the
most ambitious standards on the
planet may become final in 2014; the
standard would value reductions of
black carbon and establish an Arctic
Regional Warming Indicator.
Global Motivation:
Benefits from Action
S
Pictured: Tickell Network Climate
Theatre. Flor del Bosque Educational
Park, Mexico.
S
Mexico, driven by a public clamor for
climate protection, in June 2012
adopted the most ambitious climate
protection law of any OECD nation.
S
There is growing interest in rich and
poor nations alike in acting to slash
emissions of black carbon and other
substances whose reduction will yield
health and climate benefits.
Lecture Focus
Arctic Climate Action
Registry (ACAR)
TARGET: Short-Lived
Climate Forcers & Regions
S
Effort of the Climate Institute, other US
and international NGOs and climate
and forestry scientists to increase
incentives for reduction of SLCFs.
Other SLCFs: tropospheric ozone
forming compounds and methane
S
Other regions near tipping point: the
Himalayas- Tibetan Plateau, the
Andes and Amazonian Basin, and
Antarctica.
Seeks to slow the precipitous loss of
Arctic sea ice that could rescramble
weather and ocean circulation patterns.
S
Establish a precedent for regionally
focused strategies to minimize climate
disruption in other vulnerable regions.
S
Double down on growing interest by
focusing efforts on black carbon and
the Arctic.
S
S
Short-Lived Climate Forcers
S
Decisive global action targeting
SLCFs the next best step to bide
time for the regions in danger of
irreversible damage.
S
Amazon
S Amazon land and conversion forest
loss may push to point of dieback.
Andes may be affected both by
warming and SLCF deposition.
Could mean loss of water resources
for tens of millions.
S
Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau
S Increased efficiency, non or low-
carbon fuel sources.
S
Antarctic
S Parts warming rapidly with
potential for adding to sea level
rise from melting of
glaciers in Greenland and other
regions and warming of upper
layers of ocean.
S Water resources for at least a sixth
of humanity could be imperiled.
Global Action on Short-Lived
Climate Forcers
Climate and Clean Air
Coalition
S
Rapid growth of CCAC action on black
carbon,
methane, hydrofluorocarbons and tropo
spheric ozone that together produce as
much an effect on climate change as
CO2.
S
Reductions will often yield not only
climate benefits but enhanced human
health (BC), and sometimes economic
(recovery for energy of leaking methane)
or safety (harvesting of methane from
coal mines).
Challenges
S
Barrier to be overcome: failure of
Kyoto Protocol-based trading
systems to incentivize
these reductions.
Tropospheric Ozone
S Formed as a secondary product of other emissions
S By oxidation of methane, CO, and VOCs in the presence of NOx
S Once formed, lasts 20 – 24 days
S Warming Effect is ~ 0.3 W/m2
S 18% of CO2 effect
Methane
S Atmospheric concentrations rising after several years of stability
S Lasts 12 years in atmosphere
S Warming Effect is ~ 0.86 W/m2
S Just over 50% of CO2 effect
S Win-Win opportunities to reduce methane
Black Carbon (Soot)
S Dark-colored type of aerosol / particulate matter (PM)
S Absorbs sunlight and heat
S Stays in atmosphere for only 1 – 2 weeks
S Atmospheric Warming Effect is 0.44 – 0.9 W/m2
S 28 – 55% of CO2 effect
S Decreased snow albedo in Arctic and Himalayas
S Enormous regional increase in warming effect
S Globally averaged, is an additional 0.1 – 0.2 W/m2
S Harmful to human respiratory health
Regional Effects
•
“Tropospheric ozone and BC snow albedo effect contribute
substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the
Arctic” - James Hansen et al. 2005
•
Arctic Warming Since 1890 (Shindell et al. 2009)
•
•
•
Black carbon:
Trop. Ozone:
0.5 – 1.4˚C
0.2 – 0.4˚C
Shindell estimates that combined
sulfate decrease and BC increase
caused 75% of direct Arctic
warming over past 30 years
Benefits from Black Carbon
Reduction
S Atmospheric loading and warming influence will drop as
emissions drop
S Acute decrease in Arctic warming
S Reducing certain BC emissions will result in:
S Reduced indoor air pollution, which kills 1.9M annually
S Reduced outdoor air pollution, which kills 0.8M annually
Warming Effect During 21st Century
Aggressive Reductions in both GHGs and Black Carbon
8
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
7
6
5
4
3
2
21st Century CO2 only
1
20th Century GHG Emissions
0
1990
2000
2010
Credit: MacCracken 2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
YEAR
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Near-Term Changes in Warming Effect
Black Carbon is Critical to Reducing Near-Term Warming
6
6
Aggressive Reductions
in BC and GHGs
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
Business as Usual
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
YEAR
Credit: MacCracken 2009
2030
2040 1990
2000
2010
2020
YEAR
2030
2040
Biomass Burning - Largest
Current Arctic Climate Forcer
S
ARCTAS mission found it
contributed 39 % of Arctic black
carbon, 69 % of Arctic methane and
38 % of Arctic carbon monoxide, a
precursor of tropospheric ozone.
(Wedderburn- Bisshop, 2012).
S
Agricultural and grassland fires are
responsible for 69 % of Arctic fire
activity with forest and shrubland fires
responsible for 24% (WedderburnBisshop, 2012).
S
Recent studies indicate that about
75% of light absorbing aerosols
(black and brown carbon)
deposited on Arctic snow and
ice are attributable to crop and grass
burning (Hegg et al, 2010).
Biomass Burning - Largest
Current Arctic Climate Forcer
S
The lead sources of these emissions in descending order are Russia, Kazakhstan, China,
United States, Canada and Ukraine (Pettus, Clean Air Task Force, 2009).
S
Most of these nations have some form of
restrictions on agricultural burning but
enforcement is generally lax, especially in
places such as northeast China where emissions
are most likely to affect the Arctic (Pettus,
2009).
S
Potential mitigation strategies might include
increased enforcement of existing rules and
changed seasonality of burning.
Arctic Air Overflights - A Source
of Black Carbon and Other
Climate Warming Emissions
S Beginning in 1998 when Russia
agreed to permit foreign carrier
commercial aviation overflights
this has grown to over 40,000
flights a year with significant
climate forcing effect. Especially
significant is the residence time
of black carbon emitted in the
stratosphere, as much as an order
of magnitude greater than at
ground level (Jacobson et al.
2012)
S
Mark Jacobson at Stanford and
colleagues, after an extensive analysis of
trans- Arctic flights, concluded it would
be possible to reduce emissions by as
much as 83 % by rerouting. They project
this could significantly delay loss of
Arctic sea ice with annual costs globally
of about $ 99 million. (Jacobson et al.
2012).
Arctic Air Overflights - A Source of
Black Carbon and Other Climate
Warming Emissions
S Breakthroughs in early June by members of International Air
Transport Association (IATA) in urging governments to adopt a
single market based system to offset post -2020 growth in aircraft
emissions may be a heartening sign of growing airline receptivity
to climate friendly activity.
Development Related to Arctic
Warming Produces Sizable
Emissions Growth
S
Shipping - Volume likely to increase as sea ice melts
S
Potential response - Requiring electrostatic precipitators or changed
fuel mix to minimize black carbon emissions on both commercial
vessels and icebreakers.
S
Oil and gas development - Likely to increase, especially in Russia and
some other offshore parts of Arctic and near Arctic.
S
Potential response - Besides seeking universal provisions to minimize
oil spills, encouraging near zero black carbon emissions and zero
methane releases.
S
Mining - Although a modest source of emissions, mostly in Russia
and Canada, there is large potential for growth of mining industry in
Greenland with international investors looking to extract iron and
rare earths.
Possible Regional
Geoengineering Strategies
S
S
Sending small ships to disperse sea salt,
forming clouds to hold in Arctic heatSalter and Latham and a UK based
Arctic Methane Emergency Group
have been the leading advocates for
this strategy.
Changing seasonality of icebreakingdoing less ice breaking in the spring
when it reinforces sea ice loss and
more in the fall.
S
Catalyzing natural processes to absorb Arctic
methane-researchers are looking at use of
supplements such as nitrate or sulfate to boost
productivity of methanotrophs.
S
Bacteria are responsible for aerobic
methane oxidation; archea are
responsible for anaerobic oxidation.
This might reduce methane release in
Arctic oceans, as well as promote a
more suitable climate for fish
habitation, and therefore for fish farms.
The Four Crucial Regions
Himalayas
Amazonian Rainforest &
Andean Mountains
The Four Crucial Regions
Antarctica
The Arctic
South America: Closely
Interconnected Ecosystems
Amazon Rainforest
S
The Amazonian Rainforest is the
greatest treasure trove of biodiversity on
the planet.
S
It is disappearing rapidly due to land
conversion for cattle farms, mining and
small farmers.
S
Brazilian Scientists (Simoes &
Evangelista) report that emissions from
burning for land clearing in the Amazon,
especially for cattle farms, may be
producing as much as half of black
carbon deposition in the Antarctic.
Andes Mountains
S
Glaciers in the mountains provide
water supplies for tens of millions
in South America and hydropower
for millions.
S
Rapid glacial melt imperils this
water supply.
S
Efforts are underway to install
cleaner cook stoves in many
Andean communities and reduce
black carbon emissions.
S Glacial thinning:
Antarctica
Glaciers in Antarctica contain
about 70% of all the fresh water
on Earth; if all were to
melt, global sea levels would rise
well over 60 meters- more than
200 feet.
Antarctica
S
Although Antarctica is the coldest
region on Earth, some portions in the
Antarctic Peninsula and West
Antarctic are among the most
rapidly warming parts of the planet.
S
There is a modest net loss now
from Antarctica, about 150
cubic kilometers each year (Hansen,
2007) but if this accelerates it could
add significantly to global sea level
rise.
S
Most Antarctic ice loss seems
attributable to interaction with
warming waters of the Southern
Ocean more than to warming on the
land.
S
Deposition of significant quantities of
black carbon from fires in
South America and Africa has
been detected in Antarctica and linked
to agricultural burning. No
linkage has yet been done on their role
in ice loss.
The Himalayas
Himalayas – Tibetan Plateau
S
Provides water supplies for about
one of every six humans on earth.
Rapid glacial melt underway that
may reduce water availability.
S
Project Surya seeks to reduce black
carbon emissions, save lives and
reduce climate forcing through
replacement of cook stoves and
kerosene lanterns with cleaner
alternatives http://www.projectsur
ya.org/
S
Emissions of black carbon,
especially from diesel transport and
cook stoves, appear as great a factor
as overall global warming in
spurring glacial melting.
S
Indian Supreme Court has mandated
that in public transport compressed
natural gas vehicles replace current
diesel and other vehicles.
The Arctic’s Role
And Functions of the Arctic Climate Action Registry
S
Climate Change in the Arctic
Economist, August 28 2012
In September 2012, a new record level of Ice
melt was recorded. At this rate the Arctic could
be ice-free in summer by the end of this decade.
Climate Change in the Arctic
S Melting of the Greenland
ice sheet, contributing to
global sea level rise

Significant erosion,
threatening villages

Collapse of whole
ecosystems

Melting of permafrost
and release of trapped
methane hydrates
Scientists at NASA first thought satellite
readings were a mistake after images
showed 97% surface melt over four days
Chief Causes
S Global Warming
 CO2 and other Kyoto GHGs
S Arctic Regional Contribution (50-70%)
 Methane
 Black Carbon
 Tropospheric Ozone

Methane Hydrate Pulse
5,000 billion tons trapped ~
all CO2 and CH4 combined
Climate Change Impacts
S Displacement of villages due to sea level rise and melting
permafrost
S Public infrastructure damage
S Ecosystem impacts (e.g., new pests, migratory species)
S Food security (e.g., fisheries, subsistence hunting, melting ice
cellars)
S Human health issues (e.g., disease, asthma)
Climate Change Impacts
ALASKA
The Government Accountability
Office (GAO) has reported:
S Almost all of Alaska’s 200+
villages have been affected by
flooding and erosion, with 4
requiring relocation
S 31 villages face imminent
threats
S 12 of the 31 villages are
exploring relocation options
Locations of Arctic
Indigenous Peoples
Significance for
International Security
S Accelerated glacial melting in
Greenland and Antarctica could
enhance projected sea level rise,
threatening the US, other coastal
nations and island states.
S Potential unpredictable effects on
weather patterns and world agriculture
at loss of year round Arctic Sea Ice.
Arctic Climate Action
Registry (ACAR)
S An effort to incentivize reductions of emissions of soot, methane and
tropospheric ozone forming compounds.
S No other organization in the world is taking action fast enough to save the
Arctic. The Arctic Climate Action Registry will certify projects that
immediately slow the meltdown in the Arctic using metrics defined in the
new Draft American (ANSI) Greenhouse Gas Accounting Standard.
S The Arctic Climate Action Registry Network is a social network consisting
of scientists, business leaders, government officials, educators, and
consumers. Its goal is to help members communicate about taking action to
save the Arctic.
S If successful, could be adapted and extended to the Antarctic, Amazon-
Andes and Himalayas.
ACAR Vision, Mission
and Strategy
S VISION: Slow down and ultimately
end climate change in the Arctic
region and, in so doing, slow down
climate change around the globe.
S MISSION: Mitigate greenhouse
gases and other climate forcers
affecting the Arctic region.
S STRATEGY: Stimulate projects and
activities in support of our mission,
based on incentives and market
mechanisms, with measurable
progress within the decade.
ACAR Participants
ACAR HOME
The Climate Institute
Steering Committee
ARCTIC CLIMATE
PROTECTION NETWORK
Companies
Government agencies
Institutions
Individuals
TRANSACTIONAL
REGISTRY
Managed by the
American Carbon Registry
Based on Arctic Climate Metrics
from LEO-SCS-002
ARCTIC CLIMATE
FOOTPRINT &
3rd PARTY OFFSET
VERIFICATION
SCS Global Services
Current Steering
Committee Members
Charles Bayless, Chair, Chairmen of the Board Essential Power
Luis Roberto Acosta, President, Instituto del Clima
Senator Heherson Alvarez, Commissioner for Climate Change, Philippines; Former Philippine
Secretary of the Department of Agrarian Reform and the Department of Environment and Natural
Resources
Steve Apfelbaum, President, Applied Ecological Services
Paul Bartlett, Environmental Scientist
Robert W. Corell, Principal, Global Environmental Technology Foundation; Chair, Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment
Gary Dodge, Director of Science and Certification, Forest Stewardship Council U.S.
Robert Engelman, President, Worldwatch Institute
Peter A. Globensky, Principal Consultant, BASA; Former CEO, Canadian Council of Ministers of the
Environment
Current Steering
Committee Members
John Kadyszewski, Director, American Carbon Registry
Stephen Leatherman, Professor and Director of the Laboratory for Coastal Research at Florida International
University
Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist, The Climate Institute
John Noel, President, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy
Conn Nugent, President, Heinz Center
Ata Qureshi, Team Leader, Asia Climate Study.
Stanley Rhodes, President, Scientific Certification Systems
Terry Root, Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
Linda Schade, Executive Director, The Black Carbon Reduction Council
Tim Warman, Former Vice President, Climate and Energy, National Wildlife Federation
Carol Werner, Executive Director, Environmental and Energy Study Institute
Daniel Wildcat, Professor, Haskell Indian Nations University; Founder, Indigenous Peoples Climate Change
Working Group
ACAR Registry Project
Opportunities
Examples
Shipping – Equipping ships with technology to capture black carbon,
and using or purchasing turbine-powered ships.
Agricultural Burning - Reduce and change seasonality
Airlines – Reduced emissions from airline fleets, e.g., some
rerouting of flights, increased fuel efficiency.
Pollution Prevention –Stack emissions captured at electricity
production and other industrial facilities.
Methane Capture – Methane capture for energy generation.
Natural Cycle Enhancement – Micronization of sea water to help
cool the region, i.e., ships generating spray to promote cooling.
Some Encouraging Trends
U.S. Greenhouse Gases
S
Total emissions levels have
dropped almost to 1994 levels due
largely to increased efficiency
and greater use of renewables.
S
Should continue by a substitution
in U.S. of natural gas for coal in
the utility sector.
S
To maximize climate benefits of
coal to gas switch, it is crucial to
minimize methane leaks
from natural gas system.
Energy Use & Emissions
U.S. Position: Opportunity
S How can our energy planning
and foreign policy promote
results that will sustain our
national economy, reduce risk of
climate disruption, and meld
into climate protection
responses, benefits to human
health and food production?
S Leverage our good fortune as
soon-to-be world’s leading energy
producer; ensure continued
prosperity and catalyze effective
national and international
response to climate change.
S In natural gas sector: hold
overall methane leakage from
natural gas extraction,
transmission and distribution
to below 1%.
U.S. Opportunities
S
Reduce federal and state
regulatory barriers to energy recycling
(cogeneration).
S
Promote aggressive international
attack on Short- Lived Climate
Forcers that affect climate and human
health and where benefits can be
realized soon.
S
Wide political support here. April 22,
2009, joint sponsorship of successful
legislation by Senators Inhofe, Carper,
Boxer and Kerry to mandate U.S. EPA
to develop options for black carbon
reductions here and abroad.
S
Encourage special focus on emission
reductions in regions such as Arctic,
where we may be at near
irreversible climate tipping points.
China Moving Forward in
Climate Protection
S
As Ramez Naam noted in Slate May 8, 2013 China now seems determined to be a
world leader in climate protection:
1. Moving forward with a cap and
trade plan in seven regions Including
provinces of Guangdong and Hubei
and cities of Beijing, Shanghai,
Tianjin, Chongqing and Shenzhen,
with a goal of linking by 2020 to a
national carbon market.
2. Planning to institute a tax on CO2
emissions, as early as 2015 or 2016.
China Moving Forward in
Climate Protection
3. Investing $65 billion on renewable energy in 2012,
compared with $35 billion in the US the same year.
4. China now produces over half of the global
production of solar panels with the US now
producing less than 10 percent.
Significantly, driven by both climate and air quality
concerns, China appears to be considering the
integration of valuation for reduction of emissions of
black carbon and other short- lived climate forcers
into their cap and trade plans.
A chef in China's Shandong
province removes chicken
from a solar cooker
A Region Specific
Mitigation Strategy
ACAR TARGET: Black carbon, ozone forming compounds and methane
S
Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau: rapid glacial melt imperils the water supplies of
much of humanity; mitigation action (cleaner cook stoves and transport
systems) can avert hundreds of thousands of air pollution deaths annually.
S
Latin America: glacial melt in the Andean region and drying out of key
agricultural lands in South America is spurred by burning and land
conversion.
S
ACAR to leverage growing public interest in slowing climatic disruption in
the regions closest to a tipping point, corporate interest in averting climatic
chaos and voluntary emission reduction incentive systems to slow loss of sea
ice and glacial melting.
Climate Change
and the
International Stage
Thank you! Questions/Comments?
Acknowledgments:
Principally Humiun Miah and Jillian Jordan,
thanks also to Michael MacCracken, John Michael Cross, Matt Vetter, Christopher
Philipp, and Linda Brown.
www.climate.org & Arctic Climate Action Registry
(ACAR) at
http://www.climate.org/programs/acar/index.html