Adam Sutton
Chia-Jung Liu
Grant Volk
Yin Chu
Can Shen
Robert Matarazzo
Andrew Ratcliffe
Ruben Bos



Highest since Great Depression
Effects well being of population
Effects well being of economy
Implicit effects on policy development and reformation
Umployment Rate
12
10
8
Rate (%)

6
4
2
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
 To
understand the correlation, if any,
between unemployment rates and population
characteristics











State Expenditures
Percentage of population that is White, African-American,
and Hispanic
Percentage of population with no health insurance
Percentage of temporary jobs
Percentage population over 25 with a bachelor’s degree
Income per capita
Homeless per 1000
Number of citizens participating in the food stamps
program
Crimes per 100,000 citizens
Percentage of blue collar jobs
Data taken across 51 observations including 50 states and
the District of Columbia
Variable (1)
Variable (2)
R-squared
F-Statistics
PROB
Percent bachelors
Income per capita
0.694573
0.000000
Percent blue collar
Percent bachelors
0.747881
0.000000
Blue collar
Income per capita
0.489143
0.000000
Food stamps
Crime per 100,000
0.047541
0.124279
Food stamps
State expenditures
0.771099
0.000000
Percent without health care
Percent white
0.207299
0.000788
Percent without health care
Percent black
0.043089
0.143844
Percent without health care
Percent Hispanic
0.333601
0.000009
Crime per 100,000 per state
Percent white
0.387852
0.000001
Crime per 100,000 per state
Percent black
0.448505
0.000000
Crime per 100,000 per state
Percent Hispanic
0.078482
0.046468
Percent without health care
Crime rate per 100,000
people
0.111541
0.016613
 Correlations

Bachelors degree and income per capita
 Correlations

between two signs of wealth
between two signs of poverty
Lack of health care and food stamp participants
 Lack
of significant negative correlations
between a sign of wealth and a sign of
poverty
Dependent
Variable
Explanatory
Variable
R-squared
F-Statistics PROB
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
blue-collar
0.040628
0.156083
Unemployment Rate
Crime per 100,000 per
state
0.200999
0.000969
Unemployment Rate
Participation in food
stamps program
0.185520
0.001604
Unemployment Rate
Homeless per 1000 per
state
0.146512
0.005568
Unemployment Rate
Income per capita
0.007179
0.554416
Unemployment Rate
Percent of adults with
bachelors
0.004037
0.657805
Unemployment Rate
Percent of African
Americans per state
0.144186
0.005991
Unemployment Rate
Percent of Hispanics per
state
0.034391
0.192619
Unemployment Rate
Percent of whites per
state
0.094708
0.028029
Unemployment Rate
Percent of pop with no
health care
0.025767
0.260486
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
temp
0.005882
0.592693
Unemployment Rate
State expenditures
0.147193
0.005953
 Percentage
of population that is White and
Hispanic
 Percentage of population with no health
insurance
 Percentage of temporary jobs
 Percentage population over 25 with a
bachelor’s degree
 Income per capita
 Percentage of blue collar jobs
Dependent
Variable
Explanatory
Variable
R-squared
F-Statistics PROB
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
blue-collar
0.040628
0.156083
Unemployment Rate
Crime per 100,000 per
state
0.200999
0.000969
Unemployment Rate
Participation in food
stamps program
0.185520
0.001604
Unemployment Rate
Homeless per 1000 per
state
0.146512
0.005568
Unemployment Rate
Income per capita
0.007179
0.554416
Unemployment Rate
Percent of adults with
bachelors
0.004037
0.657805
Unemployment Rate
Percent of African
Americans per state
0.144186
0.005991
Unemployment Rate
Percent of Hispanics per
state
0.034391
0.192619
Unemployment Rate
Percent of whites per
state
0.094708
0.028029
Unemployment Rate
Percent of pop with no
health care
0.025767
0.260486
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
temp
0.005882
0.592693
Unemployment Rate
State expenditures
0.147193
0.005953
Dependent
Variable
Explanatory
Variable
R-squared
F-Statistics PROB
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
blue-collar
0.040628
0.156083
Unemployment Rate
Crime per 100,000 per
state
0.200999
0.000969
Unemployment Rate
Participation in food
stamps program
0.185520
0.001604
Unemployment Rate
Homeless per 1000 per
state
0.146512
0.005568
Unemployment Rate
Income per capita
0.007179
0.554416
Unemployment Rate
Percent of adults with
bachelors
0.004037
0.657805
Unemployment Rate
Percent of African
Americans per state
0.144186
0.005991
Unemployment Rate
Percent of Hispanics per
state
0.034391
0.192619
Unemployment Rate
Percent of whites per
state
0.094708
0.028029
Unemployment Rate
Percent of pop with no
health care
0.025767
0.260486
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
temp
0.005882
0.592693
Unemployment Rate
State expenditures
0.147193
0.005953
Dependent
Variable
Explanatory
Variable
R-squared
F-Statistics PROB
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
blue-collar
0.040628
0.156083
Unemployment Rate
Crime per 100,000 per
state
0.200999
0.000969
Unemployment Rate
Participation in food
stamps program
0.185520
0.001604
Unemployment Rate
Homeless per 1000 per
state
0.146512
0.005568
Unemployment Rate
Income per capita
0.007179
0.554416
Unemployment Rate
Percent of adults with
bachelors
0.004037
0.657805
Unemployment Rate
Percent of African
Americans per state
0.144186
0.005991
Unemployment Rate
Percent of Hispanics per
state
0.034391
0.192619
Unemployment Rate
Percent of whites per
state
0.094708
0.028029
Unemployment Rate
Percent of pop with no
health care
0.025767
0.260486
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
temp
0.005882
0.592693
Unemployment Rate
State expenditures
0.147193
0.005953
Dependent
Variable
Explanatory
Variable
R-squared
F-Statistics PROB
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
blue-collar
0.040628
0.156083
Unemployment Rate
Crime per 100,000 per
state
0.200999
0.000969
Unemployment Rate
Participation in food
stamps program
0.185520
0.001604
Unemployment Rate
Homeless per 1000 per
state
0.146512
0.005568
Unemployment Rate
Income per capita
0.007179
0.554416
Unemployment Rate
Percent of adults with
bachelors
0.004037
0.657805
Unemployment Rate
Percent of African
Americans per state
0.144186
0.005991
Unemployment Rate
Percent of Hispanics per
state
0.034391
0.192619
Unemployment Rate
Percent of whites per
state
0.094708
0.028029
Unemployment Rate
Percent of pop with no
health care
0.025767
0.260486
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
temp
0.005882
0.592693
Unemployment Rate
State expenditures
0.147193
0.005953
Dependent
Variable
Explanatory
Variable
R-squared
F-Statistics PROB
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
blue-collar
0.040628
0.156083
Unemployment Rate
Crime per 100,000 per
state
0.200999
0.000969
Unemployment Rate
Participation in food
stamps program
0.185520
0.001604
Unemployment Rate
Homeless per 1000 per
state
0.146512
0.005568
Unemployment Rate
Income per capita
0.007179
0.554416
Unemployment Rate
Percent of adults with
bachelors
0.004037
0.657805
Unemployment Rate
Percent of African
Americans per state
0.144186
0.005991
Unemployment Rate
Percent of Hispanics per
state
0.034391
0.192619
Unemployment Rate
Percent of whites per
state
0.094708
0.028029
Unemployment Rate
Percent of pop with no
health care
0.025767
0.260486
Unemployment Rate
Percent of jobs that are
temp
0.005882
0.592693
Unemployment Rate
State expenditures
0.147193
0.005953
 State
Expenditures
 Percentage of population that is AfricanAmerican
 Homeless per 1000
 Number of citizens participating in the food
stamps program
 Crimes per 100,000 citizens
 State
expenditures and food stamp
participation


In order to study the variables related to state
spending against unemployment
Determined that food stamp participation is the
most significant variable while state
expenditures is not
Dependent Variable: UNEMP_RATE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/01/09 Time: 14:25
Sample: 1901 1951
Included observations: 50
Excluded observations: 1
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
STATE_EXP
FOOD_STAMPS
C
-7.77E-06
1.72E-06
7.832522
1.96E-05
8.29E-07
0.407456
-0.396859
2.073140
19.22297
0.6933
0.0437
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.218644
0.185395
2.022296
192.2150
-104.6117
2.404541
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
8.858000
2.240635
4.304468
4.419190
6.575919
0.003034
8
Series: Residuals
Sample 1901 1951
Observations 50
6
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
4
2
-1.19E-15
0.052733
4.919962
-4.123167
1.980595
0.523202
3.576950
Jarque-Bera
Probability
2.974647
0.225977
0
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6


Normal residuals
No heteroskedasticity
RESIDEXPFOOD
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
7
8
9
10
11
FITTEDEXPFOOD
12
13
 Crime



rate and income per capita
In order to study the effects of poverty and
unemployment
Highly significant regression did exist
Crime rate is highly significant while income is
not
 Introduction


of dummy variable for DC
DC’s data was much higher than the 50 states
R-squared value increased because the absence
of DC’s data decreased the sum of residuals
 Introduction


of dummy variable for DC
DC’s data was much higher than the 50 states
R-squared value increased because the absence
of DC’s data decreased the sum of residuals
Dependent Variable: UNEMP_RATE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/02/09 Time: 14:06
Sample: 1901 1951
Included observations: 51
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
CRIME_PER_100000
INC_PER_CAP
DUMMYDC
C
0.005314
-1.26E-05
-2.494080
7.146291
0.001599
5.35E-05
2.984445
2.092222
3.323136
-0.235172
-0.835693
3.415647
0.0017
0.8151
0.4076
0.0013
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.219285
0.169452
2.058404
199.1403
-107.1016
2.622396
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
8.917647
2.258646
4.356924
4.508439
4.400400
0.008272
6
Series: Residuals
Sample 1901 1951
Observations 51
5
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
4
3
2
1
Jarque-Bera
Probability
-2.56E-16
-0.076828
5.509507
-3.422640
2.010469
0.547344
3.090094
2.563729
0.277519
0
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
6


Normal residuals
No heteroskedasticity
RESIDCRIMEINC
4
2
0
-2
-4
6
8
10
12
FITTEDCRIMEINC
14
 Crime
rate, food stamps, and homeless per
1000


In order to test the three most highly
significant variables against unemployment
Determined that a significant relationship
exists with participation in the food stamps
program being the most significant variable
Dependent Variable: UNEMP_RATE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/01/09 Time: 14:49
Sample: 1901 1951
Included observations: 51
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
HOME_PER_1000
FOOD_STAMPS
CRIME_PER_100000
C
0.303980
1.11E-06
0.002413
6.483981
0.197584
3.75E-07
0.001352
0.577719
1.538488
2.959184
1.785036
11.22343
0.1306
0.0048
0.0807
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.350128
0.308646
1.878012
165.7656
-102.4240
2.361724
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
8.917647
2.258646
4.173489
4.325005
8.440629
0.000136


Normal Residuals
No heteroskedasticity
10
6
Series: Residuals
Sample 1901 1951
Observations 51
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
6
4
4
-2.49E-16
-0.093738
5.403755
-3.316906
1.820800
0.658761
3.650791
HCSRESID
8
2
0
-2
2
Jarque-Bera
Probability
4.588710
0.100826
-4
6
0
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
8
10
5
HCSFITTED
12
14


Introduction of dummy variable for DC
Increased R2 by decreasing sum of residuals
Dependent Variable: UNEMP_RATE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/01/09 Time: 15:04
Sample: 1901 1951
Included observations: 51
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
HOME_PER_1000
FOOD_STAMPS
CRIME_PER_100000
DUMMYDC
C
0.527074
8.76E-07
0.003564
-4.754245
5.807296
0.251541
4.06E-07
0.001567
3.371999
0.746482
2.095379
2.155693
2.274129
-1.409919
7.779548
0.0417
0.0364
0.0277
0.1653
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.377048
0.322878
1.858581
158.8989
-101.3451
2.339112
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
8.917647
2.258646
4.170398
4.359793
6.960497
0.000181
 Percent
of population with no health
insurance does not correlate with
unemployment rate
 Percent of adults with bachelors does not
correlate with unemployment rate
 Unemployment



positively correlated with:
Participation in the food stamps program
Homeless rate per 1000 people
Crime rate per 100,000 people
 Should
be the goal of the government to
decrease unemployment by a reallocation of
funds

Would lead to decrease in crime, homeless rate,
and poverty
(End)