Problem Solving /
Decision Making
Kepner-Tregoe
The New Rational Manager
Chapter 6
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 1
Chapter 6 Contents
Future Events and Their Consequences
 The Basic Activities
 A Different Kind of Process
 When to Use Problem (Opportunity)
Analysis

Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 2
The Future
 Looking
into the future helps to identify
and assess threats and opportunities.
 The first step in a Potential Problem
(Opportunity) Analysis is to feel
concern about the future of some
project, situation, or event.
 Only when managers share a common
method can this activity be effective.
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 3
Potential Problem
(Opportunity) Analysis
 “PP(O)A
is the pattern of thinking that
enables us to change and improve the
future; rather than allow the future to
arrive entirely on its own terms.”
 PP(O)A is a voluntary act of prudence
 PP(O)A is used less often and less
thoroughly than the other Rational
Processes
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 4
Potential Problem
(Opportunity) Analysis
 “Success
and survival depend on being
able to anticipate change, to avoid being
swallowed up by its negative effects,
and to seize the benefits it offers.”
 PP(O)A is a systematic process for
uncovering and dealing with potential
problems and opportunities that are
reasonably likely to occur
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 5
PP(O)A Basic Questions
 Potential
Problems
Focus on undesirable deviations
 What could go wrong?
 What can we do about it now?

 Potential
Opportunities
Focus on desirable deviations
 What could go better than expected?
 What can we do now to make the most of it?

Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 6
Problems vs Opportunities
 Potential
Problem Analysis and
Potential Opportunity Analysis may be
conducted on the same action.
 Both are future oriented
 Potential Problem Analysis and
Potential Opportunity Analysis should
be done separately.
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 7
PP(O)A Techniques
 State
the action
 List Potential Problems (Opportunities)
 Consider causes for the Potential
Problems (Opportunities)
 Take actions to address the causes
 Prepare actions to reduce the effects
 Set triggers for contingent actions
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 8
PP(O)A vs Adverse
Consequences in DA
 Potential
Adverse Consequences of
alternatives is an identification activity to
allow us to arrive at a balanced choice
among alternatives under risk.
 PP(O)A is action plan; we are going to
do something

PP(O)A might naturally be done after DA
on the adverse consequences of the best
balanced choice.
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 9
Case Study: Planning an
Inauguration
 Review
the Inauguration case
statement, W 145-146, B 144
 In a complex action, there are
tremendous amounts of detail.
 Nobody can deal with every possible
problem
 We must be priority oriented not detail
oriented
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 10
PP(O)A List of Problems
 Bad
weather disruptions
 Program VIPs might not attend
 Facilities may be inadequate
 Guests might not know where to go or
what to do
 The site could be untidy
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 11
Problems: What to Look For
 Anything
that has never been done
before
 Anything with overlapping
responsibility
 Tight deadlines
 Activities carried out at a long distance
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 12
Consider Causes
 Weather:
heavy afternoon
thunderstorms
 VIP no-shows: competing priorities
and forgotten schedules
 Facilities: parking, restrooms, fountains,
seating, trash
 ETC….
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 13
Take Actions to Address
Causes
 Weather:
plan for morning
 VIP no-shows: personal contacts, 2
weeks, 1 week, and 2 days before event
 Facilities: temporary parking areas,
portable restrooms, temporary
fountains, extra seating, signs, and
guides
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 14
Take Actions to Reduce Likely
Effects
 Canvas
roof over speaker platform
 Back up speakers
 Back-up hotel and vehicle reservations
 Boy scout troop as a last minute clean
up crew
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 15
Set Triggers for Contingent
Actions
A
mechanism to monitor the potential
problem and activate the contingent
action at the correct time.
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 16
The Case Results
 Review
the case study results, W 152153, B 149-150
 The purpose of PP(O)A is not to
guarantee error-free plans, projects, and
events. The purpose is to prevent
plans, projects, and events which are
long remembered by: “Why didn’t
somebody think of that?”
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 17
Another Example
 Full
process which leads to the
recognition of a new alternative

Closing Sayers Point Mill
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 18
When To Use PP(O)A
 Use
Problem Analysis whenever
experience and intuition tell you
something could go wrong and the cost
of its going wrong could be great.
 Use Opportunity Analysis when you
are confident of success but experience
and intuition tell you there could be
value exceeding expectations
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 19
Other Cases
 The
Likely Emergency
 A Crises Averted
 Opening the Quick Service Aircraft
Facility
 Searching for Alaskan Oil
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 20
Chapter Summary
 Potential
Problem Analysis is not
simply a search for trouble

It is a constructive method for identifying
ways to avoid and lessen trouble that is
likely to occur
 Potential
Opportunity analysis is not
simply a search for improvement

It is a deliberate search for ways to find
additional value and benefit
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 6 - 21