Advance Placement Government Notes
Mr. Lister
VI. Public Opinion
A. Public Opinion
1. Distribution of individual attitudes about a particular policy,
candidate, etc.
2 Often not the same as what the government does
a. Budget deficit versus a balanced budget
b. Equal Rights Amendment
c. Term Limits
2. Framers goal was not to form a government to respond to the
whims of the people
3. Opinions are communicated through media polls
a. Terry M Moe – study
b. People do a good job forming views with little information
c. Uninformed people choose substantive reasons just as
informed people
4. 1940s – distressing view of democracy
a. Small group knew a lot
b. Vast majority knew nothing
C. Scientific Polling
1. Poll - survey of public opinion
a. George Gallup
b. 1932 - 1st
c. Wrong 1948 and 1976
i. Presidential Elections
2. Sampling Size – 1,500 people can tell the opinion of 300 million
3. Random Sample – any person/voter has an equal chance of being
interviewed
a. Stratified/multistage
i. Geographic units in the country
b. Proportion of people selected to the total population
i. Blocks, streets.
4. Sampling Error - the difference between the results of random
taken at the same time.
5. Exit Polls – conducted on election days at the polls – random voters
a. Difficult to predict winners in close elections
b. Timmy Bradley Effect (Wilder Effect)
i. Explains observed discrepancies between polls and
actual results.
ii. State they will vote for a black man, but in reality
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they do not
iii. Socially acceptable answers
6. Straw poll: unscientific method
D. Opinions Differ
1. Opinion Saliency - some people care more about certain issues
than other people
2. Opinion Stability - opinions are stable
3. Political Socialization – process by which personal traits
influences one’s views about politics
a. Family
b. Race
c. Class
e. Religion
4. Mass versus elite opinion
a. Elite – term used by social scientists to refer to people
who have a disproportional amount of valued resources
i. Money
ii. Schooling
iii. Prestige
b. Not all elites know more than the masses they think
differently
c. Consistent set of opinions
i. government tends to the views of elites
d. People in social groups tend to share common opinions
E. Genes and Family
1. Traditionally: the view has been children follow their parents
party affiliation
2. Less party identification since the 1950s
3. Age related differences
F. Race and Ethnicity
1. Blacks – more are Democrats (90%)
2. Mexicans – Democrats – not as much as blacks
3. Cubans – Republicans
4. Puerto Rico – Mix
5. Asian Americans
a. No as liberal as blacks or Hispanics
b. Similar to Anglo Americans
c. Japanese – most conservative
d. Korean – most liberal
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6. Latinos
a. 40 million
b. Little known
c. Democrats
d. More liberal than Anglos and Asians not as liberal as blacks
G. Religion
1. Protestants are more conservative on economic issues relative to
Catholic and Jews
2. Jews tend to be more liberal on economic issues than than Catholics
or protestants
3. Catholics are conservative on social issues – moving to becoming
more conservative
4. Religious Right – socially conservative
H. Geographically
1. East and West Coasts – more liberal
2. Mid-West – more conservative
3. Urban – liberal
4. South – 1870-1950s – Democrat “ Solid South”
5. South – 1960s – to present – Republican
I. Gender Gap
J. Political Ideology
1. Consistent set of beliefs about government policies
measurement of political ideology
2. Conservatives are the second largest group – 30%
3. Liberals are the smallest group – 20%
4. Problems with self-identification
a. Most Americans do not use the words liberal, conservative,
or moderate
b. Limitations on polling
i. inconsistent answers
c. Socially and morally acceptable answers
d. Conservative and Liberal mean different things in different
time periods and for different people 7
K. Liberal and Conservative Elites
1. Activists – are what Americans prefer to call their political
elite
a. Hold office (run for office)
b. Campaign Workers
c. Journalist
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d. Lead Interest groups/social movements
e. Public Issues
2. The more active a person the more consistent their ideology
3. Reasons for Consistency
a. Peer information
b. Find Relationships between issues
c. Associate with people who are similar
4. Political People
a. Congressmen more ideological
b. Presidential nominating delegates
L. Public Opinion and Elites
1. Elites shape opinion through media
a. John Zaller – study
i. Elite views shape mass views
ii. Influence the debate and decided
b. Establish norms
2. Elites do not define problems
IX. Political Participation
A Voters
1. Voting Age Population - citizens who are eligible to vote – 60%
2. Registered Voters – people who are registered to vote
a. 70% registered voters vote
b. 43% of the 60% of eligible voters actually vote
i. 2006
3. U.S. does not fair will world wide
4. Reasons for not voting
a. 25% school and work
b. 12% family chores and obligations
c. 12% vote would not make a difference
B. Proposed changes
1. Elections Day – National Holiday
2. Elections on weekends
3. Mail in ballots
4. 1996 – Oregon all mail election for the U.S. Senate
5. Registration burdens
6. 1993 Motor Voter Law
a. Millions register but do not vote
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b. Drivers License renewal
7. Other forms of participation
a. Civic Associations
b. Social Movements
c. Writing Legislators
C. Historical Trends
1. Constitution - 1787
a. Property Owners
b. Taxpayers
2. Andrew Jackson – 1829 – 1837
a. Broadened the vote
b. White males – all
c. Exceptions for property
i. New Jersey – 1844
ii. North Carolina – 1856
3. Prisoners often lose their franchise
D. State to Federal Control
1. Constitution
a. Picked the election day
i. Even Number years on the Tuesday following the first
Monday of November
b. Article I: House of Representatives will be
chosen by the “people of several states”
2. 1842 – Federal Law
a. House must be elected by districts
b. No at large election
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3. 15 Amendment – 1870
a. Black Males
b. Restrictions placed on the 15th
i. Literacy Tests
ii. Poll Tax
iii. White Primary
c. Grandfather clause: a person could vote if their ancestors
voted before 1867
4. Court Rulings
a. Grandfather Clause - 1915 – illegal
b. White Primary – 1944 – illegal
5. Voting Rights Act 1965
a. Not literacy tests
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b. Ordered the registration of blacks
6. Voting Rights Act of 1970
a. 18 year olds have the right to vote in federal elections
b. Unconstitutional
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7. 26 Amendment – 1971
a. 18 year olds have the right to vote
b. 25 million people eligible to vote
c. 42% of turnout
d. Trends for of voters
i. 2008 – 52%
ii. 2004 – 48%
iii. 1996 – 37%
iv. 1992 – 52%
v. 1972 – 55%
e. Presidential Elections 18-29
i. 1996 – 2004 – 17%
ii. 2008 – 18%
8. National Standards for voting
a. 18 years old
b. No literacy test
c. No poll tax
d. 30 day residency (maximum)
e. Language specific ballots
f. Poll Watchers – under 50%
9. 23th Amendment
a. Washington D.C.
b. Presidential Elections
E. Voter Turnout in – Presidential Elections
1. Historical Trends
a.1928 thought today 50 to 63%
b. 1860-1900 – 70%
c. 1860 – 1876 – 80%
d. Under 50%
i. 1920
ii. 1924
2. Reasons for the decline
a. Less interest in elections
b. Less Competitive – two party system
i. North – Republican
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ii. South – Democratic
c. Political Fraud
i. Political parties printed ballots
ii. Public casting of ballots
iii. Floaters - repeat voters
“Vote early and often”
d. Australian Ballot - 1890s
i. Government printed ballots
ii. Secrete Casting
3. 2000 Presidential Election
a. Florida’s voting controversy
b. Hanging “Chads”
4. 2002 Congress passes new voting measure
a. State need process to count disputed ballots
b. Federal Funds for upgrading voting equipment
c. Train election officials
d. Methods of voting
i. Paper ballots
ii. Lever Machines
iii. Punch Cards
iv. Optical Scans
5. Explanation of Voting Age Population (VAP)
a. People who can’t vote
i. Prisoners
ii. Felons
iii. Aliens
b. Voting Eligible Population (VEP)
F. Forms of Participation
1. Voting is the most common form of participation
2. Least common – donation of money
3. People exaggerate the frequency they vote
a. Verbu and Nile Study
i. 72% state they vote
ii. 60% is the average
b. Research – “politics is not at the hear of day to day life
of the American people”
i. Work, Family, Church, and Voluntary Activities
4. Verba and Nile forms of Participation
a. a 22% (1/5) Completely inactive
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i. no involvement in organizations
ii. Little Education
iii. Low incomes
iv. rarely vote
v. Young
vi. Black
b. Activists – 1/9 (11%)
i. Participate in all forms
ii. Highly educated
iii. Higher incomes
iv. Middle Aged
c. Voting Specialist – people who vote but do little else
i. Older
ii. Minimum schooling
iii. Lower income
d. Campaigners
i. Vote
ii. Involved in campaigns
iii. More education than average voter
iv. Strong positions
e. Communalists
i. Similar to campaigners
ii. Avoid Conflict
f. Parochial Participants
i. Do not vote
ii. Do not join civic organizations
iii. Contact official about personal concerns
G. Participation
1. Higher rates
a. College educated
b. Employed
c. Whites and blacks over Hispanics
2. Voting Rate has declined, civic engagement has not
3. Voting rates are less than most democracies
a. ½ million elected officials
b. Voting affects the US system more
4. Voters do not always represent the country.
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