Florian Hernandez
Professor William J. Greer
Political Science 1100-041
30 July 2012
The Trend of Voter Turnout in the United States
In the 2008 U.S. presidential election, voter turnout among the voting-age
population (VAP) was tallied at 58.2 percent. (U.S. Census Bureau 3) The VAP is the
U.S. population, aged 18 years or older. With only a little more than half of those able to
vote showing up at the polls, the looming question is why this number is not larger.
Voter turnout in the United States is less than desirable and has continued to decline for
the past century. This has particularly been a concern in the last four decades, with
numerous research, studies, and surveys being performed to arrive at a solution. No one
answer has been absolute, but various methods, tactics, and strategies have been shown to
improve or increase voter turnout. These approaches may not result in the same level of
participation as other countries--some whose turnouts are 90% or better, especially those
where voting is compulsory. However, the objective of increasing voter turnout is
trumped by what is more important--the ability to engage citizens in the political process
while maintaining the principles of democracy.
To examine the issue of low voter turnout and the ways to remedy this situation, it
is essential to review the record of voter participation, the history of voting and voting
rights, the approaches used to improving turnout, and the actual effect on voter turnout.
This writing will focus on voter turnout only for the years of presidential elections in the
United States. And, for the purpose of maintaining consistency, voter turnout will be
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based on the voting-age population (VAP) rather than the voting-eligible population
(VEP) as a longer history of data is available on turnout by VAP.
VOTER PARTICIPATION RECORD
Voter turnout in the U.S. was not always so abysmal. From 1840 to 1896, the
turnout for the voting-age population (VAP) ranged from approximately 70 to over 81
percent. This rate was not sustained, however, as a significant shift occurred during the
period 1900 to 1968, where the range decreased to 49-63 percent. Since 1972, we have
seen a further decline of voter participation ranging between 49 and 58 percent. (Peters,
Wooley)
VOTING HISTORY
This section reviews the evolution of voting, the right to vote, and legislation
enacted to encourage voting. A number of Amendments and Acts have been passed to
not only be more inclusive, expand the number of those able to vote, but most notably, to
establish the rights of citizens to vote. In the Constitution, Article 1, Section 2 was
modified by Amendment 14 to identify males 21 years of age or older to have the right to
vote; it was ratified in 1868. In 1870, Amendment 15 was enacted to give AfricanAmericans the right to vote. Approximately 50 years later, in 1920, Amendment 19 was
ratified to allow women the right to vote. In 1964, Amendment 24, Section 1, was
passed, to outlaw the non-payment of a poll tax or other tax as reason for denying citizens
the right to vote. The last modification to the Constitution was made in 1971 with
Amendment 26 Section 1, a revision to Amendment 14, where the voting age was
lowered from 21 years of age to 18 years or older.
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Despite these necessary changes, voter turnout did not spike following the
enactment of these amendments. Other actions were implemented to help improve voter
participation. This includes the passage of the National Registration Act, also known as
the Motor Vehicle Law, in 1993. This law was to make it easier and more accessible for
citizens to register and vote. States were required to make voter registration forms
available in motor vehicle and social welfare offices. In addition, states had to allow
mail-in registration to vote. Though this Act may have helped to increase voter
registration, it still did not “budge” a rise in voter turnout. Other efforts to allow early
voting and voting by absentee ballot also did not have a huge impact. (Hubert 121)
APPROACHES to IMPROVING TURNOUT
If significant changes to the Constitution, the laws, and other actions did not have
a pronounced effect on voter turnout, what will? A great amount of research, surveys,
and studies have been done to evaluate the many variables that affect voter turnout. This
collection of data includes information on the: profile (white, college, educated, income,
etc.); demographic (ethnicity, marital status, etc.); attitude (views of the government,
politics, direction of the country); and psychology (how they see themselves as a citizen,
perspective, social pressure) of voters. Campaign strategists have been keen on paying
attention to the results of these studies. They use this information in mapping out specific
groups who they can encourage and motivate to go to the polls in support of their
candidate on Election Day.
The success of utilizing this type of data was evident and highly effective for
Barack Obama’s bid in the 2008 Presidential Election. Based on information collected by
his campaign team, they were able to identify segments of the population that could be
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targeted and crucial to the vote count. This grassroots-organizing network then focused
on battleground and swing states where these groups could be found.
Many of these areas were typically low-income, Hispanic, and African-American
communities. The 2008 election brought out 2 million first-time African-American
voters; at least, 95% of black voters cast their ballot for Barack Obama. (Ramsey)
Hispanics also made a big contribution to Mr. Obama winning the election. They helped
to tip the balance in key swing states such as Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico.
African-Americans did the same in the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and
Virginia. (Frey)
In addition, Mr. Obama’s campaign team hit college campuses where it incited
and inspired students to be involved and participate in the political process. Overall
turnout for young voters aged 18-24 saw the most significant increase in 2008, rising to
49% from 47% in 2004. (U.S. Census Bureau 5)
The ability to mobilize and energize these voters was a success for Mr. Obama’s
campaign. But, beyond all the hype and historical significance of the 2008 election, voter
turnout in the aggregate (percentage of VAP) still did not experience the kind of increase
that was anticipated. A report by Dr. Michael McDonald showed the VAP turnout rate
rose a mere 1.5 percentage points in 2008 (56.9%) from 2004 (55.4%). (McDonald)
It would appear that a solution to increasing voter turnout is elusive. However,
the results of copious research, studies, and surveys done propose otherwise. Based on
these findings, the factors affecting or prompting persons to vote, besides the
mobilization of the electorate, were: positive incentives and reinforcement;
direct/personal contact; social pressure; and compulsory mandates.
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As we saw in the 2008 presidential election, energizing and mobilizing segments
of the population was effective. Another finding was that positive incentives such as
holding an election celebration also encouraged voters. In an experiment performed in
2005 by Dr. Donald P. Green of Yale University (now at Columbia University), James
M. Glaser of Tufts University, and Elizabeth M. Addonizio, a political science doctorate
student at Yale, organized Election Day Poll parties in municipal elections in the states of
New Hampshire and Connecticut. These parties were low-key, no “pomp and
circumstance,” and held on the lawn of the polling place. Amenities consisted of small
sandwiches, cotton candy and music. Working Assets, a company that supports
progressive causes, also conducted similar events. The result was these festivities did
increase turnout. In some areas, it rose by as much as 6.50 percent. (Drutman)
Psychological approaches have also been tried to prompt individuals to vote.
Carefully-worded surveys questioning people about voting and their intentions were
found to be influential. For example, Todd Rogers, a Harvard professor and behavioral
psychologist, conducted a randomized controlled trial in Pennsylvania where he broke
potential voters into groups. One group received no calls, another group received calls
with the standard get-out-to-vote questions, while the other group received calls asking
planning questions, e.g., what they would be doing and where they would be coming
from before voting. The outcome was surprising with the group asked about their “plan”
to vote being twice as likely to vote. “There’s a lot of research showing that thinking
through the actual moment when you will do something makes it more likely that the
behavior will pop into your mind at the appropriate time,” explains Dr. Rogers. Asking
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the “planning” questions was like planting a seed of what actions the individual might
take on Election Day. (Spiegel)
Another survey by Christopher J. Bryan, Gregory M. Walton, Todd Rogers, and
LCarol S. Dweck, also performed a survey, posing questions “invoking the self.”
For one group, survey questions were phrased in such a way that placed the participant in
a positive light should s/he vote. Another group was also asked questions, but phrased in
a way that voting was considered more as a behavior than how it might identify them.
The result was individuals in the group who were asked questions “invoking the self” had
a greater likelihood of voting versus those who were asked questions about voting as a
behavior. (Bryan, et al)
IMPACT on VOTER TURNOUT
Apparently, methods and strategies can be employed and successful in improving
voter turnout. However, these techniques become less tenable in impacting voter turnout
in the aggregate. This is primarily due to the dynamics of voter participation and the
many factors that play a role. For example, a simple upward or downward movement in
the variables used to calculate voter turnout, i.e., number of people able to vote and the
voting-age population, will consequently alter this figure. The more salient element
causing variability in voter turnout is human behavior. People can feel compelled to vote
because of intrinsic interest, others due to their economic situation, and some who
consider it a civic duty. Still, others may simply choose not to vote for whatever reason,
even if they had dutifully done so in the past. All these factors impact voter turnout, is at
the voter’s discretion, and is not controlled by government.
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Though increasing voter turnout remains a concern and a challenge, we cannot
resort to controlling the rights of citizens. Countries like Australia, Belgium, and
Argentina have compulsory or mandatory voting (by law); they achieve turnouts of
nearly 90% or better. But as Maria Gratschew indicates, “compulsory voting is
inconsistent with the freedom associated with democracy . . . . ” (106) Imposing this
system in the United States may attain similar levels in voter turnout, but it is more likely
that any proposal to enact such a mandate would be strongly rejected by the people.
After all, enforcing such a ruling would not only be contradictory, but also defy the
principles of democracy itself.
Albeit, we don’t currently have a sure-fire solution to gaining voter turnout much
above the 60% level, we do know that strategies and tactics exist that effectively reach
and get voters to the polls. Inasmuch as we would like citizens to be more engaged in the
political process, we are left to the nuances of individual behavior as we fortunately live
in a free republic.
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Works Cited
Bryan, Christopher J.; Dweck, Carol S.; Rogers, Todd; Walton, Gregory M. Motivating
Voter Turnout by Invoking the Self. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences (PNAS) 2 Aug 2011. Vol. 108. No. 31. 12653-12656. Print.
Drutman, Lee. “Simple Ways to Increase Voter Turnout.” Pacific Standard. 31 Mar
2008. Web. 4 Jul 2012.
Frey, William H. “Will 2012 Be the Last Hurrah for Whites?” National Journal. 13 Jun
2012. Web. 2 Jul 2012.
Gratschew, Maria. “Compulsory Voting.” Web. 1 Jul 2012.
http://www.idea.int/publications/vt/upload/Voter%20turnout.pdf
Hubert, David. “Introduction to U.S. National Government and Politics.” 2008.
McDonald, Michael P. 2012.”2008 General Election Turnout Rates.” United States
Elections Project. Web. 3 Jul 2012.
Peters, Gerhard, and Woolley, John. “Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections: 18282008.” The American Presidency Project. Web. 14 Jul 2012.
Ramsey, Donovan X. “Obama Campaign Focuses on Black Vote, Target HBCUs.” The
Grio. 23 Feb 2012. Web. 12 Jul 2012.
Spiegel, Alix. “Can Science Plant Brain Seeds That Make You Vote?” NPR. 16 Jul
2012. Web. 17 Jul 2012.
United States Census Bureau. "Voting and Registration in the Election of November
2008." census.gov. Jul 2012. Web. 10 Jul 2012.
http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p20-562.pdf