SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO
CLIMATE CHANGE IN A TIME OF
RENOVATION
Huy LuongQuang
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia,
Norwich, UK
h.quang@uea.ac.uk
Outline



Assessment from 1995 – 2003 in Giao Thuy, a
coastal district in the north of Vietnam,
Discussion on the limitations and dissatisfactions on
the findings,
On-going development of a new approach.
Giao Thuy – social vulnerability ?
Objectives


to assess social vulnerability and resilience under the effects of
economic renovation and the implications for local society
coping with the impacts of climate and weather extremes.
Figure 1. Research site - Giao Thuy district, 2000/01
Figure 2. Research site - Giao Thuy district, 2000/01
Giao Thuy district
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Why Giao Thuy?

is selected on the basis of statistical
and social representativeness that
provides a typical account of the
social structure




is a resource-dependent community
affected significantly by institutional
changes.
annual climate and weather extremes
are given special considerations in
local policy making.
impacts of institutional changes under
economic renovation and climatic
related events have altered the social
structure and local adaptive capacity.
allows a theoretical, analytical and
descriptive basis to obtain a high
level of insights and thoroughness.
Questions asked!




What are the changes of local society under the effects of
economic renovation and consequences from these
changes? And how is the local society responding to the
consequences?
What are the impacts of climate and weather extremes on
social livelihoods? And how are these livelihoods
recovering from the impacts?
How is the level of social vulnerability and resilience
revealed and varied since the economic renovation?
How effective are the chosen indicators in addressing
understanding the processes that influence level of
vulnerability?
Indicators tested
Vulnerability
indicators
Ecosystem
sensitivity
Economic
capacity
Human
resources
Institution
Variables
Characterised for…
Land and natural
resources
managed
GDP (per capita,
inequality level,
credit capacity, etc)
Dependency ratio,
access to the
resources
Employment
Empowerment
Degree of human intrusion into the
natural landscape and land
fragmentation
Distribution of access to markets,
different kinds of capital and other
resources useful for adaptation
Social and economic resources available
for adaptation after meeting other
present needs
The rate of employment available in
different economic sectors
Participatory status of people to decision
making
ECONOMIC RENOVATION
CLIMATE AND WEATHER EXTREMES
Identification of new introduced
livelihoods since economic renovation
Identification of climatic extreme events
in the region in the last decade
Analyses of inequality & inequalising
effects of different social livelihoods
Estimations of economic value of
household income, loss caused by
climate extremes, and reinvestment.
Identification of the immediate
responses to welfare inequality
Analyses of the effects of migration &
changed labour and their future trends
Analyses of the correlation between
household incomes, the losses caused
by climate extremes, reinvestment &
labour involved recovery
Assessment of the effects of economic
renovation on social structure
Analyses on recovery from the climate
extremes of different social groups.
Identifications of the changes in social vulnerability and resilience
Policy implication
Institutional changes
Policy changes and its effects on social livelihoods
Policies
Land reform
Dismantling of the
cooperative system
Open market of
employment
Agriculture
mechanisation
Context of formal policies
Allocation and privatisation of agricultural land. Allocation
is based on population and agricultural land available at
time of implementation
Property rights to use, transfer, sell, buy, inherit,
mortgage the land
Lessening of restriction on markets and supplies of
agricultural inputs
Improve the crop management and agricultural services
Removal of governmental guaranteed employment
Changed agricultural practices
Economic growth
Household average income per person per month (price 2003)
Average income
(000 VND)
1996
1999
Average growth
(%)
2001
1996-1999
1999-2001
Whole country
266
295
331
8.8
6
Red River Delta
223
280
337
7.6
9.6
Giao Thuy District
321
394
442
12.3
11.2
500
400
300
Whole country
200
Red River Delta
Giao Thuy District
100
0
1
2
3
But who
benefits from
that growth?
Figure 3. Lorenz curves for measurement and decomposition of
inequality in Giao Thuy , 2000/01
Migration as a newly introduced livelihoods

Formal – Governmental Organised Migration and
Resettlement programmes



North-North resettlement programme – New Economic Zone,
Post-war Migration and Resettlement (1975-1990s) 
Population redistribution policies involving both deurbanisation
and resettlement in NEZs - North-South migration,
Informal




Spontaneous migration (both North-North and North-South),
Population growth, land limitation,
Employment opportunity,
Social networks and structures.
Effects of migration on the social structure





Changing gender roles - women more responsible to manage
agricultural land.
Some loss of skills in agricultural workforce.
Weakening family structure because older members of the family
are absent.
Loss of social capital as members of community are absent.
BUT increase remittance income.
Decomposition of per-capita income inequality by different
components of income
Income sources
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Rice income
Other plantations
Breeding
Aquaculture
Fishing
Manufacture and service
Wages
Remittance income
Note:
***
(+)
(-)
Pseudo Gini
Share of
coefficients income (%)
0.031
25.1%
0.416
1.8%
0.114
23.1%
0.343
17.8%
0.371
18.9%
0.457
5.6%
0.148
3.5%
-0.175
4.2%
Contribution to Inequalising
inequality (%)
effect***
4.0%
3.9%
+
13.4%
31.2%
+
35.4%
+
13.3%
+
2.7%
-3.9%
-
Inequality effect
Income source contributes more to inequality than share of income
Income source contributes less to inequality than share of income
Aquaculture and migration




Source: Adger et al., 2000
Aquacultural development means the
rich become richer and the poor
become relatively poorer.
The community as the whole does
become richer because of
aquaculture but the important point is
who benefits?
The trend toward inequality amplifies
the pressure on poorer households
caused by population growth / land
limitation, the rising cost of living and
other factors such as loss of jobs
caused by agricultural
mechanisation.
The response of many households is
spontaneous migration, only possible
since the start of the economic
renovation.
Changes in formal policies towards habitat protection
Ramsar designation (local level only)
Local access to natural resources before and after Doi Moi and Ramsar designation
Before
Ramsar
management
N/A
After (2001-2003)
6000 ha is under strict
protection


Policies on
use and
access to the
natural
resources
Free access to
the mangrove in
the area.
No regulations
to control the
exploitation of
the area.




Water resources and 
soil quality control
Maintain natural
balance and the

ecosystem,
Protection forest
Production forest
Effects
Limited access  decrease the
number of locals who totally
depend on mangrove
Increase inequality in whole
community which shrimp pond
owners gain
Increase social resilience by
higher productivity and stability of
rice production.
Loss of resilience by limited
employment, loss of skills and
changes in social structure due to
changes in labour allocation and
new trends, such as spontaneous
migrations.
Changes in access to natural resources
Beneficiaries before and after the designation of Ramsar site
Number of household benefiting
from the mudflat
Individuals collecting marine
products from the mudflat
Mean income gained from the
mudflat per month
Percentage of income from
mudflat out of total income of the
household
Before the designation
and economic renovation
(late 1980s)
171
After the designation
208
76
200 kg of rice* (171
households)
< 50 kg of rice or
150,000 VND (52
households)
<5% (52 households)
12.48% (171 households)
52
Note:
* The research used rice as a measure for the value of marine products collected by the households as
marine products were not marketed before the designation of Ramsar site
Access to the natural resources in local area before and after the Ramsar designation
and economic renovation.
Before the designation After the designation
and economic
renovation (late 1980s)
AQUACUTLTURE
Area of aquacultural ponds
250 ha
2,158 ha
Number of aquacultural ponds
5
65
Number of labourers involved to aquaculture
25
452
1,800,000
1,289,000
VND 45m
VND 582.6m
12,000 ha
4,202 ha
20,000
12,000
110
50
approx. 200 kg of rice
Approx. 50 kg of rice
Mean aquacultural income per capita
Total income by aquaculture
FISHING AND FREE PRODUCT COLLECTION
Local area with free access to natural resources
Number of beneficiaries who have been using the free
access area
Mean working hours in free access area per month
Mean income per capita from fishing and free
collection
Labour force allocation in relationship with spontaneous migration.
100%
Labourer involved rate (%)
21.50%
80%
45.20%
71.60%
60%
40%
78.50%
54.80%
20%
38.40%
0%
Woman
Man
Labours involved in
seasonal migration
Main labours involved Minor labours involved
in agriculture
in agriculture
Note: Data collected in 2001-2003 in Giao Thuy district
Effects of migration and changes in labour force on
the level of social vulnerability





Remittance income has a complex and often opposing effects on the
resilience of the poorer members of the community.
Limit the loss of resilience caused by aquaculture development and other
trends but it is not enhancing resilience by diversifying livelihoods in the local
community - it is being invested in existing agricultural activities.
Because of effects on gender roles, skills in the agricultural workforce, etc, it
has negative effects on resilience.
However, migration livelihoods are less dependent on the environment, there
is increased resilience to current environmental stress and long-term global
environmental change compared to local livelihoods such as agriculture and
fishing.
It is important to separate out these different effects rather than simply saying
migration or aquaculture is good or bad.
Climate extremes and local response

examine the aquacultural, non-aquacultural, migrant and non-migrant
communities coped with typhoon strikes,

cover the income from different sources at household level, loss caused by
the extremes, reinvestment (recovering expenses) and the workforce
available and involved to recover from the extreme events.

most recent and serious typhoon strikes occurred in the region in 1992,
1996 and 1998.
INCOME breakdown by different categories during 1992-1998
Overall
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
Non-aquacultural
community
Aquacultural
community
Migrant
community
Non-migrant
community
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1992
1996
1998
Note: income data of the 1992 & 1996 have been converted to 1998 price using
inflation rate by IMF (1999)
Climate–related loss during 1992-1998
Overall
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
Non-aquacultural
community
Aquacultural
community
Migrant
community
Non-migrant
community
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1992
1996
1998
Note: income data of the 1992 & 1996 have been converted to 1998 price using
inflation rate by IMF (1999)
How big / significant is the loss?
Pearson correlation using loss as the dependent variables.
1992
Overall
Loss and Income
0.57
Loss and Investment
0.73
Loss and Labour used to
0.73
recover
1996
Loss and Income
0.46
Loss and Investment
0.89
Loss and Labour used to
0.64
recover
1998
Loss and Income
0.59
Loss and Investment
0.79
Loss and Labour used to
0.68
recover
Note: * not significant at 5% level
NonAquacultural Migrant
aquacultural community community
community
-0.04*
0.75
0.62
0.77
0.82
0.75
-0.03*
0.76
0.85
Non-migrant
community
-0.15*
0.79
-0.18*
-0.03*
0.84
-0.01*
0.87
0.82
0.87
0.52
0.82
0.87
-0.07*
0.84
-0.01*
-0.19*
0.79
-0.06*
0.78
0.85
0.69
0.49
0.78
0.68
-0.29*
0.75
-0.05*
Implications from testing indicators

1. Changes in institutions have had good effects on both agriculture and
aquaculture, the implications showed an increase in the level of social resilience in
both the aquaculture and the non-aquaculture groups.

2. Testing financial and inequality indicators showed that the whole community
got better off  reduce social vulnerability but pressures on the rest of the
population. Non-aquacultural groups still face a loss of social resilience caused by
the development of aquaculture.

3. Two different trends, labour reallocation and spontaneous migration, both
closely related to each other. Migration, with remittance income, has limited the
loss of resilience but it is not improving coping capacity by diversifying livelihoods
in the local community as remittance income is simply being invested in traditional
activities or saved. Migration caused loss of skills in the rural society and changed
the gender role on agricultural works, leading to further loss of social resilience.

4. Coping with the extreme events, typhoon strikes. Aquacultural community
remains most sensitive and dependent economic sector but adaptability has
enhanced considerably by the improved financial and human capacities. Nonaquaculture group, though less dependent on the environment than aquaculture,
but is the most vulnerable to the climate and weather extremes.
Implications from testing indicators
Summary of indicators’ implications
Indicators
1. Land management
2. Financial capacity
3. Human capacity
4. Institution
The effects of economic
renovation
Improved land and crop
management
Inequality between groups
Imbalance labour reallocation,
spontaneous migration
Favour the aquaculture group
Complex negative effects on non
aquacultural group
Changes in the level of social
resilience to extreme events
Non-aquaculture
Aquaculture
group
group








Limitations and dissatisfactions

Communication skills

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
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Power issues

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information provided by different members of the local community, depending on
their positions in the society can reflect their own view of the subject under
discussion
Gender issues


the ability to ask relevant questions
open to the knowledge and competence of the local community and are prepared
to admit their own ignorance of the local situation
the researchers and the local community have to be prepared to give up their
preconceived ideas
interpretation / translation
Gender differences define how, in a specific social and cultural context, women and
men interact and what is considered appropriate for each to do, thus determining
their development options and constraints
Location and time

Information is gathered from the perspective of the inhabitants of one village
while other groups of other locations and their perspectives are excluded,
especially if different ethnic groups or even in different countries are
concerned.
Limitations and dissatisfactions (cont.)

Superficial data


Uncertain quality of data


Tools and techniques used in the field maybe absolutely alien to the local
community, abuse of these techniques and tools will give wrong, even converse
data and information
Extractive and empowering application of the approach


Principles of crosschecking information by seeking different sources and using
different methods to obtain information about the same thing are not always
undertaken.
Imposition of new concepts


stop at describing the activities and physical surroundings of a community and
often fail to investigate deeper to understand strategic decisions that underlie the
observed patterns of activities or to see how these strategies have evolved over
time
Most approaches and techniques tend to extract information, some empower the
local community to obtain data and information. Interactive process is neglected.
Weaknesses in follow-up

What can we do for the community afterwards?
Relatively effective
support for decision
making process,BUT
not involved local
community
THIS LINK SHOULD
INCLUDE LOCAL
PARTICIPATION
Authority
Decision making identity
Information provision only,
facts and figures sometimes
misinterpreted due to
bureaucratic process
Scientific
community
Decision made tom down to
the society with support from
scientific community, local
knowledge normally ignored
Weak response,
sometimes too late as
decision has been
made and implemented
Normally one way, no direct response from
the local community. Research tends to
explore the fact rather than the local
knowledge in order to use it effectively.
STRONGER LINK NEEDED
Local community
Very weak and sometimes mistakenly interpreted, local
knowledge has not been considered as equally
important to scientific findings.
More questions asked!

How to establish an effective, interactive and continuous link
between the local community and the authority, which should
include scientific community?

What can be used to give the local community a means to
employ their knowledge to assist the authority and scientific
community in developing an adaptation strategy which works?
Thank you for your attention!
Huy LuongQuang
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
h.quang@uea.ac.uk