Three Things
(I think I know)
about the
Land Use / Transportation
Connection
Jon D. Fricker
21 June 2007
Transportation and Land Use
Issues
A. “Urban Sprawl”
B. Euclidean zoning
C. Gasoline prices
D.
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3 Things ... LU/Tp
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What the travel model says:
1. Changing Land Use patterns will affect the
amount of travel (vehicle-miles traveled) – at
least a little.
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3 Things ... LU/Tp
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What economic analysis says:
2. A neighborhood can support
only so much retail activity.
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What people say:
3. A New Urbanist neighborhood design is
not for everyone.
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1. Changing LU patterns
• Move non-residential
LUs into one
neighborhood.
• LUs that fit travel
behavior, rather than
the opposite
• Provide LUs that
satisfy the most
common trip making
purposes.
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1. Reverse Engineered N’hood
A. LU Categories by trip frequency:
>1 trip/week, >1 trip/month, <1 trip/month:
 Grocery, Gas Station, School, et al.
B. Nr of each LU/100 HHs:
 Trip rates per 100 HH (NPTS and ITE) for
each LU
 Average size of each LU
C. Scale up to 1 sq mi
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1. REN example calc (1)
• 901.58 trips/week/1000 sq. ft. GFA in
supermarket
• 1.327 trips/week/HH to supermarket
• Store area = (1.327/901.58)* 1000 *100 =
147 sq. ft./100 HHs
• Avg supermarket size 34K sq ft  0.004
supermarkets per 100 HH
• Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs
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1. REN example calc (2)
• Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs  total
land area needed to serve 100 HHs
• Assumed HHs/acre  land needed
• Scale up to fill one square mile 
“attractions” in REN
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1. REN travel model
• Let residents work
and shop anywhere.
• TAZ size  one city
block
• Subarea analysis
• VMT or Trip Length
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1. Changes in Travel
21 June 2007
Avg. TL
(miles)
Trips in/out
of REN
Trips in
and out of
EUCLID
% change
w.r.t. EUCLID
HBW
2.292
2.407
-4.8
HBNW
0.909
1.012
-10.2
NHB
0.763
1.278
-40.3
Avg. TL
(miles)
REN+5
zones
EUCLID+
5 zones
% change
w.r.t. EUCLID
HBW
4.601
4.712
-2.4
HBNW
2.933
3.233
-9.3
NHB
3.790
3.949
-4.0
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1. Lessons
• Introducing non-residential LUs gives
residents a choice of destinations that are
closer.
• The resulting reductions in trip lengths are
noticeable, but not dramatic, at the
neighborhood level.
• The trip length reductions are barely
noticeable at the system level.
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2. Neighborhood businesses
• How many retail
establishments can
a New Urbanist
neighborhood
support?
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2. Neighborhood businesses
• Shift analysis from
trips and GFA to $/HH
and $/LU type
• Nhood area one sq mi
• 5(?) HHs/sq mi
• Do “Market Analysis”
(next two slides)
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2. Consumer ExpenditureBased Market Analysis
An average household spends $3000 a year
on grocery-store related items.
• An average grocery store has sales of
$600,000 a year.
• Then, the number of grocery stores that
can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 *
100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores
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2. Household-Based Market
Analysis
• There are 1000 banks in a state with a
population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per
person).
• The average income at the state level is $12,000
a year.
• The average income at the county level is
$10,000 a year.
• Then, the number of banks that can be
supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/
$12,000) = 0.83 banks
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2. Lessons
At “normal” urban densities for singlefamily dwellings (4-6 HH/acre), a onesquare-mile neighborhood cannot support
enough stores to cover even one edge.
 Density must be increased dramatically,
probably by high-rise apartment buildings, or
 The “neighborhood” stores must rely on
customers from other neighborhoods.
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3. Preference Surveys
• Two-part survey at a monthly meeting of a
neighborhood association.
(1) Rate the desirability of twenty-four
types of non-residential land uses if they
were located within walking distance of
your residence.
(2) Three hypothetical New Urbanist-like
neighborhood revitalization case studies,
differing by location and scale, were
presented.
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3. LU Preferences (1)
• Churches were most preferred, while liquor
stores were ranked lowest. (figure next page)
• Land uses visited frequently (e.g. grocery store
or restaurant) rated higher than less-frequented
‘benign’ LUs, such as an insurance sales office.
• A positive relationship between the frequency of
trips taken and the desirability of a particular
land use within a neighborhood.
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3. LU preferences (2)
Church
5.0
Gro cery Sto re
4.5
P harmacy
4.3
Do cto r
4.2
Restauraunt
4.0
B ank
3.9
P ublic Library
3.6
Dentist
3.6
Average Score
B o o ksto re
3.5
Department Sto re
3.4
Hair and B eauty Salo n
3.4
Hardware Sto re
3.3
Dry Cleaner
3.2
Theatre
2.9
Fitness Center
2.9
P ro fessio nal Services Office
2.8
Electric A ppliance Sto re
2.8
Furniture Sto re
2.7
Jewelry Sto re
2.6
Video Rental Sto re
2.4
Office Supplies Sto re
2.4
Insurance Sales Office
2.3
A uto Repair Sho p
2.2
Liquo r Sto re
1.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Land Use Type
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3. New Urbanist Cases
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3. Residents’ Opinions
• Opposed proposed
developments in
center of
neighborhood -- would
increase traffic.
• Development on
perimeter acceptable,
but few residents
would not walk/bicycle
to the proposed
developments, despite
their proximity.
21 June 2007
• People would still go to
more distant stores for
longer hours, lower
prices, greater variety.
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In other words, …
• Not this:
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• But this:
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Review of Results
1. Land use changes can help reduce VMT,
but this is a long-term solution.
2. High densities needed to support
“frequent” LUs, but other LUs need a
larger market shed.
3. A minority like New Urbanist design now,
but this market niche needs to be
nurtured.
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