MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLY
AIUS / AITPM Seminar
Garry Glazebrook
12 Nov 2009
University of Technology, Sydney
Garry.Glazebrook@uts.edu.au
1
The Challenge

Peak Oil is a looming threat

Climate Change is only slightly less
urgent, and potentially more serious

Health also important (obesity,
pollution, social connectivity etc)

Transport needs to be more
sustainable and our cities more
resilient
2
WEO 2008
and Uppsala
Oil Outlook
2008

Source: Alaklett, 2009
3
Coal production forecast
2006
4
How long have we got? - Oil




Global Oil Production will decline. Australia’s share
may also decline with competition from rising
demand in China, India etc
We should plan for at least 50% reduction in oil
availability for transport over the next 30 years
Cars will also face increased competition for oil
products from trucks, ships, airlines, plastics
industry, fertiliser industry etc.
There is a possibility that urban car-based travel
will be seen as expendable if supplies really get
short….
5
Substitutes?




Gas can be used as a transport
fuel (LPG) but also be subject
to rising competition, peaking
of supply and rising prices.
Coal to liquids – problems with
logistics, cost and CO2, and
with future supply
Ethanol and other biofuels
also have limits on scale of
production and ramp up speed
In any event, need to reduce
CO2 emissions from transport
along with other sectors.
Transport can’t expect to
escape scot free.
6
What are the options for a city like
Sydney?
Amount of
Travel
X
Energy / Oil /
Greenhouse
Intensity




Energy / Oil /
Greenhouse
Reduce overall travel
Shift modes to walk/cycle/public
transport
Increased energy efficiency within
modes
Electric power with green electricity
7
Reducing Travel…Urban Consolidation…
440
160
140
Cities with extensive Underground Railway Systems (Metros)
120
Sydney
100
Other Australian Cities
80
60
40

Has been happening, and Sydney has been getting denser,
although still low density on a world scale

This has probably been a factor in halting the rise in VKT/capita,
which has been stable for the last decade

Continuing consolidation and TOD will help reduce travel demand
per capita, but changes are relatively small.
Tokyo
Singapore
Vienna
8
Brussels
Munich
Stockholm
Zurich
Frankfurt
Paris
Amsterdam
London
Toronto
Hamburg
Ottawa
Montreal
Copenhagen
Calgary
Los Angeles
New York
Vancouver
Chicago
Winnipeg
Sydney
San Francisco
Denver
Washington
Portland
Melbourne
San Diego
Sacramento
Detroit
Boston
Phoenix
Adelaide
Perth
Houston
Brisbane
Canberra
0
Hong Kong
20
Reducing Travel…Employment Location



Shifting “Global
Sydney” jobs out of
the CBD will increase
rather than decrease
energy, oil and
greenhouse
emissions
Less specialised jobs can and should be decentralised
But important to have a limited number of major centres
(CBD, Parramatta, Macquarie) rather than dozens of
small centres which will not be able to justify their own
high quality public transport networks.
9
Freight
 Freight
task continues to grow
 Rail still losing out to trucks
 Need to be serious about mode shift
for interstate freight and freight into
the port
 Needs key investments, new models
backed by pricing signals
10
Personal Mobility



For short trips,
need to shift to
bikes, scooters
and other
personal mobility
devices..
These can also
efficiently access
public transport
for longer trips..
But greenway
networks and
secure lock up
and shower
facilities needed…
11
Sustainable Mass Transit
12
Sydney’s public transport (especially trains)
are very significant…
(Cityrail accounts for 10% of weekday travel, 2/3 of public transport passenger-kms in Sydney
and 1/3 of all public transport passenger-kms in Australia)
18.0
16.0
14.0
Pass-Kms (Billion)
12.0
Ferry
Bus
Light Rail
Heavy Rail
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Perth
Adelaide
Total
13
10% of our travel could be 100%
greenpower tomorrow

All trains and trams
could be switched to
greenpower within 2
years

Cost = $30m pa

Compare with $5b for
CBD metro

Costs will decline over
time as black-power
gets more expensive
14
Shifting modes – land use
15
But Sydney is falling behind because of
lack of appropriate investment
Percentage Increase in Public Transport Patronage by City since 1999
180%
170%
Sydney
160%
Melbourne
SEQ
150%
Adelaide
Perth
140%
Total
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
16
Shifting modes - investment



Sydney’s rail and bus
systems have capacity
problems
There are things we can
do in the short term
(next five years)….
Longer term, we need a
comprehensive plan…
17
Short term : 33% more trains on the current
infrastructure (25% increase to CBD)
18
Short term - LRT extensions
Save $5 billion compared with CBD Metro,
And gain better accessibility…
19
Short term - integration
Integrated fares and
tickets
Quality interchanges
Integrated planning and
funding
Integrated information
and marketing
20
Energy efficiency and sources



Shift to hybrids, plug
in electrics and
smaller cars is
starting..
But will take decades
Assume 50% cut in
oil, GHG and energy
per VKT within 27
years (2036)
21
A Thirty Year PT Plan

10% cut in per capita
travel

Double walk, cycle,
PT usage

No further rise in carVKT

>50% cut in oil use,
GHG emissions
(despite 30% pop
growth)
22
A Thirty Year PT Plan: Travel by Mode
A= Business as usual; B = 30 Year Plan; C=Major change
23
The Overall Plan
24
Metro Network
Fill major heavy rail gaps, links CBDs and universities
25
Inner City LRT Network
serves secondary radial routes in the inner west,
east, and inner southern suburbs, and the CBD
26
Bus-based Ring Routes and Park and Ride
40 Strategic P&R facilities
Six Ring Routes for Cross-Regional Travel
27
Capacity Enhancements
Peak Hour Heavy Rail and Metros - 2036
Long Term including High Speed Rail
250
Metro Total
Heavy Rail Total
Trains Arriving in Peak Hour
200

Inbound peak hour trains by route (top)
60
60
150
30
100
167
127
50
127
127
12
101
Build up in peak hour trains arriving CBD,
Parramatta and Macquarie (right).
40
6
32

26
45
54
54
60
54
8
0
2006 2016 2026 2036 Long
Term
Sydney CBD
2006 2016 2026 2036 Long
Term
Parramatta
12
24
40
2006 2016 2026 2036 Long
Term
Macquarie
28
Funding Sources

Users
– Fares

Other beneficiaries
–
–
–
–
Accessibility beneficiaries (land)
Congestion relief (road congestion charges)
Environmental benefits (carbon taxes etc)
Social benefits (general taxation to cover
subsidies for children, pensioners etc)
29
Implementation



$40 billion extra
over 30 years to PT
Saves at least
$100b in carrelated costs
Implementation by
a Sydney
Sustainable
Transport Board
with wide
representation
30
Conclusions

Sydney badly needs a long term plan which
addresses peak oil, global warming and other
sustainability issues.

This needs to have public involvement and
public support

We have already seen what happens when a
city doesn’t have such a plan…

The 30 Year Plan aimed to help establish a
discussion in Sydney on our future transport
needs and solutions
31
Independent Public Inquiry

Take issue beyond politics – independent of government

Public Meetings

500 submissions

Market research and funding analysis

Key focus on funding, governance, short term
improvements and long term enhancement


More opportunities for public involvement when draft
report is released – will set out various options for
comment and feedback.
Its our city and out children’s future – its up to us….
32
Thank You
Background reports for Public Inquiry
www.transportpublicinquiry.com.au
Copies of the 30 Year Public Transport
Plan are available at
http://www.dab.uts.edu.au/research/outcomes
33