新興經濟體對國際資金流動的管理
曾頌華
2013年10 月
概述
Recent Trends in Capital Flows to Emerging Market
Economies (EM)
Managing Capital Flows in EM: the Expanded Toolkit
Recent Experience with Managing Capital Inflows in
EM
Coping with Capital Outflows as U.S. Fed Exits from
Unconventional Monetary Policy
Concluding Remarks
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Types of Capital Flows
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Capital inflows to EM increased
sharply in recent years
Gross inflows
Net inflows
Source: IMF, 2013, Multilateral Policy Issues Report, August 1.
5
Composition of capital inflows to
EM shifted toward portfolio flows
Source: IMF, 2011, Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows, February 14.
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Push and Pull Factors Affecting
Capital Inflows to EM
Source: IMF, 2011, Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows, February 14. 7
EM/Advanced Countries (AC)
interest differentials are wide
Source: Chang, Joyce, Managing Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries,
J.P. Morgan, May 2011.
8
EM/AC growth differentials are
also large
Source: Chang, Joyce, Managing Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries, J.P. Morgan,
May 2011.
9
EM fiscal and debt indicators
compare favorably with AC
Source: Chang, Joyce, Managing Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries, J.P. Morgan,
May 2011.
10
Volatility of capital flows to EM
has increased
Source: Balakrishnan, Ravi, et al, 2012, IMF Working Paper WP/12/130, May.
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Capital Inflows to EM: a
Blessing or a Curse?
 Capital inflows bring economic benefits
 Capital inflows also bring policy challenges
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Foreign ownership of EM sovereign
bonds increased; market liquidity
decreased
Source: IMF, 2013, Global Financial Stability Report, October.
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Size of capital inflows is large relative
to financial depth of some EM
Cumulative Gross Capital Inflows to EM in Selected Asian EM 2010Q1-2011Q2 to
Financial Depth 1
1Financial
depth is defined as the sum of equity market capitalization, debt securities
outstanding, and bank deposits.
Source: IMF, 2012, IMF Working Paper WP/12/130.
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Macroeconomic policies
Macroprudential measures
Capital Flow Management Measures
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Exchange rate: appreciate, if exchange rate
not overvalued
International reserves: intervene and
accumulate reserves, if reserves too low
Sterilization: sterilize foreign exchange
intervention, if inflationary pressures exist
Monetary/fiscal policy:
 Lower
policy rates
 Tighten fiscal policy
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Capital Flow Management Measures
(CFMs) may be appropriate.
Source: IMF, 2012, The Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.
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Macroprudential Measures (MPMs)
aim to ensure financial system stability
Capital Flow Management Measures
(CFMs) aim to address risks of specific
capital flows
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Use of MPMs has increased in EM
Source: IMF, 2013, Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook Update, October 11.19
Macroprudential Measures (MPMs)
 Foreign exchange related measures discriminate
according to currency, not residency. Examples:

limits on banks’ open foreign exchange positions

limits on banks’ foreign currency borrowing

limits on banks’ lending in foreign exchange
 Other prudential measures aim to reduce systemic
risk, does not discriminate according to currency.

Credit related measures, e.g. LTV

Liquidity related measures

Capital related measures
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Capital flow management measures
(CFMs) are designed to limit capital
flows:
Capital control measures that
distinguish between residents (R) and
nonresidents (NR)
Other CFMs that do not distinguish
between R and NR, subset of MPMs
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Classification of MPMs and CFMs
used recently in EM
Source: IMF, 2011, Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows, February 14.
22
Design of CFMS should aim to be:
 Transparent (priced based)
 Targeted to the risk at hand
 Nondiscriminatory between residents
and non-residents
But most important, they should aim
to be as effective as possible.
23
Recent Experiences in Managing
Capital Inflows in Selected EM
Source: IMF, 2011, Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows, February 14.
24
Source: IMF, 2013, Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook, April.
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Coping with Capital Outflows as
U.S. Fed Exits from
Unconventional Monetary Policy
 Volatility shock from May 22 “taper talk”
 Mini stress test in EM, affecting:
Interest rates
 Exchange rates
 Equity markets

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Sell off of EM Bonds: May 2013 versus
Lehman Brothers 2008
Source: IMF, 2013, Global Financial Stability Report, October.
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May 22 Sell Off: Impact of EM
Equity Prices and Exchange Rates
Source: IMF, 2013, Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook Update, October 11.28
Recent Stress in Emerging Markets:
Fundamentals Matter
Source: IMF, 2013, Global Financial Stability Report, October.
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Recent Stress in Emerging Markets:
Fundamentals Matter (continued)
Source: IMF, 2013, Global Financial Stability Report, October.
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What can EM do to cope with further
capital outflows and volatility?
 Tighter financial conditions ahead
 Possible policy responses:
 Exchange rate policy: depreciate, intervention to
ensure orderly conditions
 Monetary policy: central bank credibility
important at times of increased risk aversion
 Fiscal policy: let automatic stabilizers work, avoid
stimulus, unless major slowdown
 MPMs and CFMs may be appropriate
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Concluding Remarks
 Large, volatile capital flows will continue to be
policy challenge for EM
 Toolkit for managing capital flows expanded:
 Macroeconomic policy tools
 Macroprudential and capital flow management
measures
 EM should strengthen fundamentals to cope with
potential future capital flow surges/reversals as
global financial conditions tighten
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