Japan since 1990
What we know
• Recession since 1990
• Challenges to 1955 System
– LDP in flux
– External challenges (other parties)
– Collapse of the left
– A new center-right 1 and ½ party system
– Internal challenges (Koizumi)
• 2009: Two Party System?
Evolution of Japanese Parties
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Liberal
Democratic
Party (LDP)
LDP
LDP
Breakaway
Factions (1992-93)
Sakigake
Japan New Party
Shinseito
Social
Democratic
Party of Japan
(SDPJ)
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•
•
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Komeito
(Clean Government
Party)
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•
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Democratic
Socialist
Party (DSP)
LDP
(Spring 1998;
LDP alone)
Sakigake
SDPJ
Sakigake
SDPJ
LDP
LDP
Sakigake
(dissolved 2004)
SDPJ
SDP
Democratic Party
of Japan (DPJ)
(4/98)
"NOT-LDP"
coalition
New Frontier
Party (NFP)
LDP
SDP
DPJ
DPJ
(2009)
Peace and Reform
Network
Komeito
New Komeito
NKP
NKP
New Peace Party
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•
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United Social
Democratic Party
(USDP)
Liberal League
(LDP ally 99-00; merges with DPJ)
New Conservative (LDP ally)
(merges with LDP 2003)
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•
•
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Japan
Communist Party
(JCP)
1990
•
*Ruling party or coalition at the time in bold
JCP
7/18/93
June 1994
JCP
JCP
Dec. 1994
Fall 1996
JCP
1997-1998
JCP
1999-2009
2009
LDP Scandals
PMs in the 1990s
Takeshita Noboru
Uno Sosuke
Kaifu Toshiki
Miyazawa Kiichi
Nov. 1987–June 1989
June–Aug. 1989
8/89–11/91
11/91–8/93
Political Debates
• Open up the economy
– From nationalist to liberal
• Lifestyle Superpower
• Japan as a “normal’ nation
– Saying “no” to the US
– End of Yoshida Doctrine
• Electoral reform
End of 1955 System
Heisei Revolution of Summer 1993
July 18 Election
1990
1993
LDP
275
223
SDP
136
70
Komeito
45
51
Shinseito (Renewal Party)
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55 (ex-LDP)
Shinshinto Japan New Party)
----
35 (ex-LDP)
Sakigake (New Pioneer Party)
---
13 (ex-LDP)
Democratic Socialist Party
13
15
Independents
26
34
Conclusions?
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•
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Not-LDP coalition
Old parties lose
Left loses
LDP factional split
But…
PMs in the 1990s
Hosokawa Morihiro
New Party
8/1993 – 4/1994
Hata Tsutomu
New Party
4/1994 – 6/1994
Murayama Tomiichi
SDP (LDP coalition)
Hashimoto Ryutaro
LDP
6/1994 – 1/1996
1/96-7/98
Big Changes in 1990s?
1. Electoral Reform in Lower House 1996
1. 300 SMD
2. 180 Proportional representation
2. LDP Party Rules reform
3. Administrative Reforms (passed 1998; in
force 2001)
New 1 and ½ Party System?
(seats in Lower House)
New Frontier Party
Democratic Party of Japan
Kan Naoto
1996
2000
2003
156 0
0
52
178
127
Hatoyama Yukio
LDP Challenged from Within
April 2001 LDP Party Rules Changes have an
impact
Koizumi Junichiro (PM 2001-2006)
September 2005 Election
Koizumi
vs.
Iron Triangle/LDP Anti-Reform factions
Postal reform
• Policy
• Public vs. Iron Triangle
• Institutional Change
• LDP Future
• Koizumi’s legacy
Koizumi Wins
• LDP 212 to 296 seats
• DPJ 177-113 seats
• Postal reform Bill passes October 2005
But…
• Koizumi retires, September 2006
• PMs since the 1990s
Abe Shinzo
9/06-9/07
Fukuda Yasuo
9/07-9/08
Aso Taro
9/08-9/09
2009 Election
LDP
DPJ
2005
296
113
New PM
Hatoyama Yukio
(DPJ)
2009
119
308
Party Strength in Lower House
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
19
53
19
60
19
72
19
80
19
90
19
93
19
96
20
00
20
03
20
05
20
09
0
LDP
JSP/SDPJ
Komeito/NKP
Shinseito
Shinshinto
NFP
DPJ
DPJ Victory
Why did DPJ win?
• LDP weakness
• Recession
• “Flexicons”
DPJ in Power?
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Rolling back market reforms?
Alliance with the US?
Worries about Japanese Identity?
Consumers first, producers second?
Breaking the Iron Triangle?
Real power for the government?
For DPJ: Business as Usual
Hatoyama Yukio
Kan Naoto
Noda Yoshihiko
9/16/09—6/8/10
6/8/10—9/2/11
9/2/11—12/26/12
Great East Japan Earthquake
March 11, 2011
The Damage
(from Japan Science and Technology Agency)
Before and After
Fukushima Nuclear Reactor
December 2012 Election
Pre-2009
Post-2009
Dec. 2012
New PM
Abe Shinzo
LDP
303
119
294
DPJ
110
308
56
Restoration
0
0
54
Restoration Party Leader
Ishihara Shintaro
2012 Election
350
300
250
LDP
JSP/SDPJ
Komeito/NKP
200
Shinseito
Shinshinto
150
NFP
DPJ
Restoration Party
100
Your Party
50
0
1953
1960
1972
1980
1990
1993
1996
2000
2003
2005
2009
2012
Questions
• Is the 1955 System dead?
• Does Japan have a Two-Party System?
• When in doubt, back to the LDP?
– Stimulus package 2013