Pre-Release Briefing On Prevalence of Paralysis In The United States, 2008 The University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center SCHOOL OF MEDICINE Disclaimer The information in this pre-release briefing is not intended for release or distribution at this time. Please do not disseminate information from this briefing or quote material from it until the information has been publically released on April 21st, 2009. For more information, contact Joe Canose Jcanose@ChristopherReeve.org About This Briefing This survey was developed under a multi-year cooperative agreement between the Paralysis Resource Center and the Division of Disability and Health Policy, Center for Development and Disability, University of New Mexico School of Medicine. Cooperative Agreement Activities PRC Evaluation Policy Development: Paralysis Task Force Surveillance Quality of Life Grant Program Development and Evaluation Multi-Cultural Outreach Program Agenda The Problem Survey Development Process Top-Level Results Questions The Problem Findings …too little valid and reliable information [regarding prevalence of paralysis] exists that can be used to shape paralysis-related policies, programs and services. Advancement of paralysis as a public health issue requires significantly more information about such issues as how many people live with paralysis (prevalence). Recommendation Develop and implement a paralysis population survey consistent with the definition of paralysis developed at the consensus conference that collects information on the prevalence of paralysis stratified by key variables such as age, gender, geography and ethnicity. Survey Development Process 2005 - 2008 1. Assessment of Existing Data Collection Efforts 2. National Consensus Conference 3. Cognitive Testing 4. Survey Administration and Analysis Goal …to minimize two potential sources of error: Measurement error: improperly worded questions or question order on the survey itself Sampling error: sampling frame and strategy; how telephone numbers were selected; potential under-representation of some groups such as Hispanics or AfricanAmericans University of Kansas Study Michael Fox, Jennifer Rowland, Dee Vernberg, Katherine Grobe, Glen W. White and Andrew Rosdahl. Developing an Action Plan to Improve the Quality and the Quantity of Paralysis Data. University of Kansas Medical Center and Research and Training Center on Independent Living, University of Kansas, 2005. Identify paralysis measurement systems in use Examine the validity of prevalence estimates based on these systems Identify promising paralysis measurement reporting systems Recommend strategies to implement a national data collection effort Findings No uniform, consistent constitutive definitions of paralysis Scattered data collection efforts based on clinical data with inconsistent sampling frames Conceptually ambiguous and conflicting operational definitions (counting rules) “Fuzzy” core constructs/domains such as presence/absence, cause, severity, duration or impact 2006 Consensus Conference Conceptual Framework Constitutive Definition “Paralysis is a central nervous system disorder resulting in difficulty or inability to move the upper or lower extremities.” Operational Definition “Do you or does anyone in this household have any difficulty moving their arms or legs?“ Due To: Accident Spinal Cord Injury Traumatic Brain Injury Disease or Condition Stroke Neurofibromatosis Muscular Atrophy Guillain Barre Syndrome Cerebral Palsy Spina Bifida ALS/Lou Gehrig’s Syringomyelia Post-Polio Syndrome Transverse Myelitis Fredrich’s Ataxia Multiple Sclerosis Poisoning Epidural infection Chiari malformation Complications from surgery Cognitive Testing Initial version of instrument developed at Consensus Conference Refinement of operational definition – panel of physicians (Revision) Recruitment of 100 study participants Survey administered via phone with follow-up in-person interview or focus group (Revision) Initial random-digit dial administration to 1,000 people (Revision) Second random-digit dial administration to second wave of 1,000 people (Revision) Survey Administration Survey was administered between May and September, 2008 33,348 households in the United States stratified, single-stage random-digit-dialing sample of telephone households Sample telephone numbers are computer generated One adult respondent is randomly selected using a "Most Recent Birthday Method" of respondent selection 30,000 national households: 1,000 in each of 30 waves 2,000 households using ICR’s HispanicEXCEL Omnibus: 1,000 in each of 2 waves 1,000 in a custom study of African Americans Weighting Raw data weighted to 2008 Current Population Survey estimates on education, age, region, and gender for each racial group Weighted by average household sample size: resulting total population figure was 304,228,800 Weighted for adult population (18+) as well as total population As October 9, 2008, the US census estimate for current population is 305,371,797 Items Cause Gender State Marital Status Year Occurred Person-Level Variables Duration Severity Ethnicity Hispanic Status Age Military-related Education Political Affiliation Employment Status Metro.Status Code Census Region and Division Household-Level Variables Income Household Size & Composition Own/Rent Number of Telephone Lines Initial Results For Paralysis Prevalence Figure One Prevalence of Paralysis Margin of Error: ± 3.91% Range = 5,377,196 to 5,814,804 at 95% confidence interval Reporting Some Form Of Paralysis 5,596,000 (1.84%) Not Reporting Paralysis 298,632,000 (98.16%) Causes Figure Two Causes of Paralysis N= 5,596,000 Other 526,000 (9%) Post-Polio Syndrome 272,000 (5%) Stroke 1,608,000 (29%) Cerebral Palsy 412,000 (7%) Neurofibromatosis 212,000 (4%) Traumatic Brain Injury 242,000 (4%) Unspecified Birth Defect 110,000 (2%) Multiple Sclerosis 939,000 (17%) Spinal Cord Injury 1,275,000 (23%) Note: Prevalence estimates in Figure Two are specific to individuals who indicated that they are paralyzed due to these causes. Therefore, these figures differ from estimates derived solely or primarily from medical diagnoses alone. Age Distribution Figure Three Age Distribution for Respondents Indicating They are Paralyzed N= 5,503,000 Mean Age : 52 years Standard Deviation: 18 years 30% 24.4% 25% 22.8% 20% 15.2% 15% 11.9% 10% 5% 4.6% 6.6% 8.2% 6.4% 0% 0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ Years Since Onset Figure Four Years Since Onset of Paralysis N = 5,250,085 Mean number of years since onset of paralysis: 15.6 Standard Deviation: 15.43 years Degree of Difficulty Figure Five Degree of Difficulty in Moving Extremities at the Current Time Reported by Individuals Indicating They are Paralyzed N = 5,541,000 No Difficulty 94,000 (2%) Completely Unable 903,000 (16%) A Lot of Difficulty 2,043,000 (36%) A Little Difficulty 921,000 (17%) Some Difficulty 1,580,000 (29%) Gender Figure Six Paralysis By Gender N = 5,588,000 Margin of Error: ± 1.474% Range (Females): 2,536,059 to 2,611,941; Range (Males): 2,969,574 to 3,058,426 at 95% confidence interval Female 2,574,000 (46%) Male 3,014,000 (54%) Ethnicity & Paralysis Figure Seven Ethnic Identity Of Respondents Indicating They Are Paralyzed N = 4,796,000 Other 40,000 (0.8%) Native Asian 15,000 (0.3%) American/Alaskan Native 176,000 (3.7%) Two or More Races 7,000 (0.1%) Black/African American, 827,000 (17.2%) White/Caucasion 3,731,000 (77.8%) Ethnicity Figure Eight Ethnic Identity of Paralyzed Respondents Compared to Ethnic Identity in the United States N (Paralyzed) = 4,796,000 77.8% 80.0% 74.1% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% Sample Census 30.0% 17.2% 12.4% 20.0% 3.7% 10.0% 0.8% 0.3% 6.2% 4.4% 0.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% White/Caucasion Black/African American Native American/Alaskan Native Asian Two or More Races Other Census figures taken from the 2005-2007 American Community Survey Three-Year Estimates, U.S. Bureau of the Census. Hispanic Status Figure Nine Hispanic Status of Paralyzed Respondents Compared to Hispanics in the United States N (Hispanic Paralyzed) = 671,000; N (Non-Hispanic Paralyzed) = 4,874,000; N (Both) = 5,544,000 Margin of Error: ± 1.85% Range (Hispanic): 658,586 to 683,414 at 95% confidence interval Hispanic 100% Not Hispanic 87.9% 85.2% 80% 60% 40% 20% 12.1% 14.8% 0% Paralysis US Census Census figures taken from the 2005-2007 American Community Survey Three-Year Estimates, U.S. Bureau of the Census. Household Income Figure Ten Annual Household Income of Paralyzed Respondents Compared to Annual Household Income in the United States N (Paralyzed) = 4,075,000 People with Paralysis Census 30.0% 25.0% 24.0% 19.6% 20.0% 17.6% 15.4% 15.0% 10.3% 10.0% 7.0% 5.0% 5.8% 11.5% 9.9% 10.0% 8.7% 9.5% 8.9% 5.6% 10.0% 6.3% 5.2% 4.7% 6.2% 3.7% 0.0% LESS THAN $10,000 BUT $15,000 BUT $20,000 BUT $25,000 BUT $30,000 BUT $40,000 BUT $50,000 BUT $75,000 BUT $100,000 $10,000 LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN OR MORE $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Census data from U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, HINC-01: Selected Characteristics of Households by Total Money Income in 2007 Military Service Figure Eleven Percentage of Respondents Who Became Paralyzed as a Result of an Accident or Injury While Serving in the Military N = 963,000 Paralysis Resulting From Serving in the Military 67,000 (7%) Not-Military Related 896,000 (93%) Initial Results For Spinal Cord Injury Causes Figure Twelve Causes of Spinal Cord Injuries N= 1,275,000 Other 76,000 (6%) Natural Disaster 8,000 (1%) Birth Defect 34,000 (3%) Unknown/No Response 109,000 (9%) Motor Vehicle Accident 311,000 (24%) Victim of Violence 57,000 (4%) Sporting/Recreation Accident 206,000 (16%) Fall, 112,000 (9%) Accident Working 362,000 (28%) Age Distribution Figure Thirteen Age Distribution for Respondents Indicating They Have a Spinal Cord Injury N= 1,263,000 Mean age: 48; Standard Deviation: 15 35% 30.1% 30% 24.9% 25% 20% 15% 12.0% 11.5% 11.1% 10% 5% 5.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0% 0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ Years Since Onset Figure Fourteen Years Since Onset of Spinal Cord Injury N = 1,246,403 Mean number of years since onset of SCI: 14.01 years; Standard Deviation: 12.37 years Gender Figure Fifteen Spinal Cord Injury by Gender N = 1,270,000 Margin of Error: ± 1% Range (Females): 490,050 to 499,950; Range (Males): 766,260 to 781,740 at 95% confidence interval Female 495,000 (39%) Male 774,000 (61%) Ethnicity & SCI Figure Sixteen Ethnic Identity Of Respondents Indicating They Have a SCI N = 1,097,000 Native American/Alaskan Native 76,000 (7.3%) Black/African American, 162,000 (15.6%) White/Caucasion 805,000 (77.1%) Figure Seventeen Ethnic Identity of Respondents With a Spinal Cord Injury Compared to Ethnic Identity in the United States N (SCI) = 1,043,000 77.1% 74.1% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% Sample Census 40.0% 30.0% 15.6% 12.4% 20.0% 7.3% 0.8% 10.0% 0.0% White/Caucasion Black/African American Native American/Alaskan Native Census figures taken from the 2005-2007 American Community Survey Three-Year Estimates, U.S. Bureau of the Census. Hispanic Status Figure Eighteen Hispanic Identity Of Respondents Indicating They Have a Spinal Cord Injury In Comparison to Hispanics in the United States N (Hispanic SCI) = 161,000; N (Non-Hispanic SCI) = 1,108,000; N (Both) = 1,269,000 Margin of Error: ± 2% Range (Hispanic): 157,780 to 164,220 at 95% confidence interval Hispanic 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Not Hispanic 87.3% 85.2% 14.8% 12.7% SCI US Census Census figures taken from the 2005-2007 American Community Survey Three-Year Estimates, U.S. Bureau of the Census. Household Income Figure Nineteen Annual Household Income Of Respondents Who Report a Spinal Cord Injury Compared to Annual Household Income in the United States N (SCI) = 904,000 People with SCI Census 30.0% 26.1% 25.0% 19.6% 20.0% 17.6% 15.5% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 12.7% 8.7% 7.0% 5.8% 10.1% 10.0% 8.4% 5.6% 5.2% 3.1% 11.5% 8.9% 8.2% 7.6% 6.1% 2.2% 0.0% LESS THAN $10,000 BUT $15,000 BUT $20,000 BUT $25,000 BUT $30,000 BUT $40,000 BUT $50,000 BUT $75,000 BUT $100,000 $10,000 LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN LESS THAN OR MORE $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Census data from U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, HINC-01: Selected Characteristics of Households by Total Money Income in 2007 Dissemination Release on April 21/22 Press conference at National Press Club Capital Briefing CDC Disability and Health Conference in New Orleans Questions Mr. Joe Canose 800-539-7309 JCanose@ChristopherReeve.org Dr. Anthony Cahill (505) 272-2990 ACahill@salud.unm.edu