SEARCH Observing Change: Accomplishments &
Activities, Emerging Scientific Needs, and
Priorities for Coming Years
• OCP Overview
• Activities: AON implementation, coordination &
gaps; UCP/RCP linkages; international
coordination
• Scientific needs: Implementation & gaps;
coordination & synthesis; data archival &
dissemination; partnering with agencies
(stakeholder relevance)
• Priorities for next years
SEARCH Observing Change Panel
Charge:
(i) Work with the broader scientific community to develop and at opportune intervals
update SEARCH Arctic Observing Network (AON) Implementation documents,
(ii) jointly with UCP & RCP oversee implementation of AON by (a) identifying unexplored
or undeveloped synergies between individual AON projects and other ongoing
national and international observation programs, (b) identifying gaps in the
observation network relative to the goals of the SEARCH program, (c) outlining
potential partnerships with other agency programs relevant to the SEARCH AON
effort, (d) helping ensure a broader legacy of the AON that extends beyond IPY;
(iii) provide feedback and advice as sought by the SEARCH SSC, Data Working Group,
UCP, and RCP on relevant aspects of the science and methodology of observing
change in the Arctic environment
(iv) provide a link between the SEARCH observational programs and the broader
scientific community to ensure flow of information and promote scientific exchange,
promote international collaboration and coordination of Arctic observing system
activities with complementary programs by colleagues in other countries.
Members:
Carin Ashjian (Biol. Oceanography), Hajo Eicken (Chair, Sea Ice), Larry Hinzman
(Hydrology), George Kling (Terr. Biogeochemistry, now SSC Member), Craig Lee
(Phys. Oceanogr.), Maribeth Murray (Human Dimensions), Taneil Uttal (Atmosph.
Science, NOAA)
Map of Arctic observing activities
ARMAP, 2007
Physical & Chemical
Oceanography; Sea Ice
Bering Strait
Aerial Hydrographic Surveys
North Pole
Environmental
Observatory
Seasonal
Ice Zone
Beaufort
Gyre
Observatory
& Deepest
Waters
Ice-Tethered Profilers
& Ice Dynamics and
Weather Buoys
Davis
Strait
Switchyard
& Seasonal
Ice Zone
M. Jeffries
(NSF)
Map of AON activities (CADIS)
Existing AON
projects: Arcticsystem perspective
Is our perspective on the
Arctic system changing?
Atmospheric
forcing &
variability:
StratoTropoObs,
CloudNet,
EurekaLidar,
Snow/Surface
Chem (OASIS),
SurfObs
Graphic from Overpeck et al. (2005)
BerStr,
Switchy, BG,
NPEO, AirO,
DavisStr,
NOAA
Chukchi
IABP, SIZONet,
DavisStr, NPEO
US-RUS
PFO, CALM
FlagObs,
ITEX,
LTERs
SnowNet,
Summit,
Runoff
Network,
SurfObs
Summit
Data
management:
CADIS, ELOKA
(Paleo-obs.:
Norse Societies)
HDq, Ber Comm
Obs, ELOKA
HDq
Addressing SEARCH Science Questions: Gaps
How are Priority 1 or other top priority questions (if <1) addressed through AON
Projects?
1. Is the arctic system moving to a new state? A/B
2. To what extent is the arctic system predictable (i.e., what are the potential
accuracies and/or uncertainties in predictions of relevant arctic variables
over different timescales)? A/B
3. To what extent can recent and ongoing climate changes in the Arctic be
attributed to anthropogenic forcing, rather than to natural modes of
variability? A/B (assuming 2k BP paleo-reconstruction underway)
4. What is the direction and relative importance of system feedbacks? C
5. How are terrestrial and marine ecosystems and ecosystem services (i.e.,
processes by which the environment produces resources that support
human life) affected by environmental change and its interaction with human
activities? C (terr.) F (marine)
6. How do cultural and socioeconomic systems interact with arctic
environmental change? A/C
7. What are the most consequential links between the arctic and the earth
systems? A (heat/salt budget) D (glacial mass balance)
Addressing SEARCH Science Questions: Gaps
8. Data management: A/B (data management at project level with central
exchange)
9. Education and outreach: through supported IPY activities
4. What is importance of feedbacks?
• Characterize permafrost and hydrological controls of vegetation
change and quantify resulting impact on freshwater fluxes and
biogeochemistry: Initial observation programs to be put in place,
what else is needed? Need for linkage between observations and
modeling, further progress needed [further input needed]
D+
AON PI Meeting (March 2007): Outcomes
• Networked, established links, coordinated activities and
prepared for cross-system collaboration
• Stocktaking:
- AON coverage very good, with few gaps (marine
productivity, paleoclimate (but: Y2K program), meteorology,
few geographic gaps - need to consider coverage within
Russia as part of int’l coordination; coastal zone covered?
Biodiversity/large animals? To be discussed w/in Panels)
- for long-term observations currently lacking the balance
between NSF-support and long-term sustaining agencies
during the transition into “operational” mode
- international coordination needs to be addressed at
project-, program- and agency level
- role of satellite remote sensing and NASA’s contribution to
AON need to be reaffirmed
AON PI Meeting: Outcomes
• Cyberinfrastructure:
- CADIS and other data-related projects are in a good spot
to implement proven approaches and help put down the
foundation of the AON CI
- role of CI has been clarified and potential contribution
outlined
- numerous models for success and failure exist and need
to be considered as AON grows and matures
- potential for CI to help guide system design needs further
thought
Scientific needs:
Implementation gaps and areas of need
• Ecosystem services (marine biogeochemistry & production)
• Paleo-perspectives (Y2K program provides limited set of
data)
• Terrestrial ice
• Siberian shelves
• Bering Sea: Coordination w/ BEST needed
• Socio-economic components of observing system
• Stakeholder-relevant data acquisition and dissemination
(goal of HDq, more efforts needed?)
• How can these gaps & needs be addressed?
International coordination
• SEARCH for DAMOCLES: Information
exchange and joint planning; good
coordination at project level
• Sustained Arctic Observing Network:
White paper on gaps and focal areas;
coordination with broader *OOS and
comparable efforts
Scientific needs:
Data archival, dissemination & digestion
• Currently resides at project level w/ information
“exchange” (CADIS, ELOKA)
• Coordination of efforts? SEARCH Data
Working Group and OCP roles? Potential
contribution by industry?
• Mandate of stakeholder relevance: Guidance
from RCP (and UCP) and agencies needed;
emerging information needs and confluence of
agency and scientific interests (e.g.: USCG,
polar bear status etc.)
Recent NY Times Headlines:
• New Task for Coast Guard in Arctic’s warming Seas
• Russian Scientists say the Arctic is theirs
• From the depths of the Arctic, gas to heat homes in the US
• Grim outlook for polar bears
• Arctic melt unnerves the experts
Stroeve et al., 2007
Priorities for coming years
• What is role of SEARCH in regards to implementation
& evolution of an Arctic Observing System (and how
does this relate to AON)?
• Integration of existing Arctic observing system
components: scientific level, agency level,
international level: Role of SEARCH as integrator?
• (Re?)Defining and building partnerships with
agencies
• Need for integrating activities that feed back into
observing system design (importance of model
simulations in informing observing strategies)
• Role of Cyberinfrastructure in data archival and
dissemination: Open question
1. Is the arctic system moving to a new state?
• Construct hi-resolution paleoclimate network: Partially underway,
coordination needed
• Enhance/stabilize distribution & continuity of upper-air/surface
climate/weather obs networks, incl. integration of
cryo/ocean/hydro variables: Underway, integration lagging
• Initiate one intensive “flagship” site on land
• Apply new technology, modeling & remote sens’g to extrapolate
field measurements to gridded data sets: ? [Input needed]
• Integrated observations of socio-econ. indicators of human subsystems that feed back into phys/biol. systems: biol. data avail.?
• Implement automated, coincident monitoring in ocean and sea ice
of physical, chemical, biological variables over annual cycle at
critical locations: Lacking for biological variables
• Pan-arctic sea-ice/snow mass budget from remote sensing, buoys
and surveys: Remote sensing potentially a concern
• Water budget in flagship watersheds, incl. glaciers and ice sheet:
Lagging in glaciers?
B
B-
A
[?]
BA [F]
B+
B
2. To what extent is system predictable?
• Repeat hydrographic sections across major frontal features of Arctic AOcean, relying on international collaboration & remote sensing:
Coordination underway, remote sensing less clear
• Determine spatio-temporal patterns of permafrost degradation,
B
glacier ablation and water resources: Lagging for glaciers [?]
3. To what extent is change anthropogenic?
• Construct decadal resolution multiproxy records from earlier warm
periods (Holocene thermal max’m and last interglacial): 2k
Synthesis project on lake paleoclimate data [Input needed]
• Coordinate atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observation efforts to
significantly enhance understanding of regional differences: Very
good coverage in space and time, with the exception of Siberian
Arctic [update on ocean status needed from Damocles]
[?]
A-
5. How are ecosystem services affected?
• Determine abundance and distribution of marine animals and
C[?]
communities: No efforts in US through AON (retrosp. analysis
through HDq); need for coordination with federal agencies and comanagement administrations, in particular NOAA (and
NPRB/BEST?) [input needed]
• Work with stakeholders and resource managers to implement local C
monitoring networks: Potential for progress, unclear what is
underway in US (Bering Network, some foundation work through
HDq); other countries (such as Canada) have made significant
progress [input needed]
6. How do cultural and socio-economic
systems interact with Arctic
environmental change?
• Establish data outlets for near-real time observations relevant to
C+
stakeholders: Currently only very limited, but potential and
promising approaches exist, needs to be discussed by AON
groups and in partnership with others that are leading such efforts
• Develop pan-arctic database of key human dimensions indicators of A
population, employment and subsistence: Baseline completed for
indigenous populations (outside of Russia) with Survey of Living
Conditions in Arctic (SLICA), cf. www.arcticlivingconditions.org,
but updates and more detail needed
7. What are the most consequential links
between the Arctic and Earth systems?
• Enhance observations of heat, salt and volume fluxes through
A+
straits connecting Arctic Ocean with lower latitudes: Excellent
progress and coverage for IPY [Canadian Archipelago complete?]
• Integrate glacier and ice sheet mass balance measurements with
climate dynamics observations: With glacier measurements
D[?]
lagging, not clear how much progress possible [input needed]
• Monitor perceptions of temperate zone residents of Arctic change
and importance: While no monitoring underway [?], at onset of
A
IPY public awareness appears to be at all-time high
7. What are the most consequential links
between the Arctic and Earth systems?
• Enhance observations of heat, salt and volume fluxes through
A+
straits connecting Arctic Ocean with lower latitudes: Excellent
progress and coverage for IPY [Canadian Archipelago complete?]
• Integrate glacier and ice sheet mass balance measurements with
climate dynamics observations: With glacier measurements
D[?]
lagging, not clear how much progress possible [input needed]
• Monitor perceptions of temperate zone residents of Arctic change
and importance: While no monitoring underway [?], at onset of
A
IPY public awareness appears to be at all-time high
8. Data management strategy
• Form SEARCH Data Management Advisory group: Is in place and
highly active (D. McGuire, Chair)
• Develop SEARCH data policy & management plan: Is in the works
with draft plan in circulation, needs to be run by AON PIs and
international partners (such as Damocles), in particular in regards
to data format requirements etc.; CADIS/ELOKA can provide
linkage
• Develop SEARCH data inventory: Current status of data archival
and dissemination within Arctic community is under discussion
(workshop in first week of April needs input from AON
community!) and in flux; AON PIs and CADIS/ELOKA projects
need to take active role in further discussion and planning (ArcticRIMS?)
• Establish data management requirements for SEARCH
investigators: De facto in place through RFP requirements, need
to be harmonized with other activities underway
• Create a central SEARCH data and information coordination
service: CADIS assumes this role for AON, further evolution to be
A+
A
B-
B-
B+
9. Education and outreach
• Develop E&O sections and activities on SEARCH website: Potential [?]
for effective E&O is great with IPY projects funded and public
interest high [further input needed on what has been done
specifically]
• Develop comprehensive guide with information on ways in which
[?]
individual SEARCH researchers & projects can participate in E&O
efforts: [input needed]
AON PI Meeting: Action items
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Integration of data management activities
Clarify oversight of data management activities
Creating central exchange (SPO web pages) for observation activities (incl. links to
relevant sites); how do projects tie into international effort?
Describe the scope of AON
Create AON newsletter (incl other efforts)
AON listserver
SEARCH project catalog to be put online (ARCUS) and to be completed
Meeting summary (& recommendations?) with input from discussion leaders
Use cases (a dozen) to be provided by AON PIs to CI team (through template)
CI team provides examples (good & bad) and more information on specifics of CI
(hajo.eicken@gi.alaska.edu; helen@arcus.org)
Existing components of an Arctic observing system:
Broad & incomplete survey
• WMO weather stations, radiation & climate variable
monitoring stations, radiosonde programs etc.
• River gauging stations
• Terrestrial biogeochemical stations & flagship observatories
(Toolik, Barrow, Cherskiy, Zackenberg, Svalbard, Abisko
etc.)
• Circum-Arctic Active Layer Monitoring & Permafrost sites
• Glacier & ice-sheet monitoring sites
• International Arctic Ocean Buoy Program
• North Pole Station Observatory, Damocles hydrographic
surveys, passageway moorings (Bering, Fram, Nares
Straits), etc.
• Satellite monitoring of atmosphere, ice cover and surface
ocean
• Coastal observatories (sea ice, ocean, coastal dynamics,
ecology etc.)
Not shown are international
projects such as
DAMOCLES, CFL and others
Ber Comm Obs
Snownet
BeringStr
SIZONet
ChukO
BGO
HydroNetw,
CALM,
PermaObs
ITEX,,
Flagship
CloudNet
Davis Str
Obs
IABP
NPEO
AerO
Switchy
Summit
Rough sketch of
AON geographic
coverage
AON PI Meeting: Recommendations
• Review of first year of measurements within a broader
group of observation projects (interagency level) - early
2008
• Interagency coordination through IARPC and IPMC;
example: Bering Sea region: Coordination with NPRB,
NOAA, BEST, AK Ocean Observing System and other
programs needs to be addressed
• International coordination of activities (e.g., consensus
position on link to *OOS efforts?)
Scientific needs:
Exchange w/ UCP & RCP
• Is the Arctic system moving to a new state?
Observations can be plotted in phase space,
but what is our understanding of “state”, “new”
and “move”?
• Reanalysis & paleodata provide framework for
examination of observed trajectories?
• Role of SEARCH as an integrator