Human Dimensions of the
Arctic System (HARC)
Synthesis Workshop
Implications for SEARCH
5 October 2007
Alexandria, Virginia
Workshop Purpose
 Assess
the current state of HD research
within ARCSS
 Share methods, data, and results
 To make advances in data integration
 Identify of commonalities, gaps, outliers,
needs for moving towards formal synthesis
and/or new synthesis efforts
 Foster synthesis-focused communication,
and co-ordination
Participants
HARC resides in ARCSS but many HARCtype projects and SEARCH-relevant human
dimensions projects are funded through other
venues at NSF (and elsewhere…. i.e., NOAA)
 PIs from ARCSS, AON, BEST, IPY Observing
and Understanding initiatives
 Other ARCSS investigators (past and present)
 ARCSS committee and HARC SSC members
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Disciplinary Expertise
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Applied Anthropology
Biochemistry
Biological Oceanography
Civil Engineering
Computer Simulation
Modeling
Cyberinfrastructure
Economics
Enthnology
Environmental Archaeology
Environmental Biology
Environmental Engineering
Environmental Systems
Analysis
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Geochemistry
Geography & Regional Development
Geophysics
Historical Climatology
Wildlife Management
Resource Management Science
Sociology
Natural Resources & Regional
Planning
Paleoecology
Physical Geography
Terrestrial Ecology
Disciplinary Engagement
7
6
5
Social Sciences
Bio/Geo/Chem
Management & Planning
Cyberinfra/Modeling
Interdisc Envronmental
Engineering
4
3
2
1
0
Scientific Respresentation
Projects (NSF only)
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Humans and Hydrology at High Latitudes (SASS I) Richard Lammers
Heterogeneity and Resilience of Human-Rangifer Systems: A
Circumpolar Social-Ecological Synthesis (SASS I) Gary Kofinas
Synthesis of Sea Ice, Climate, and Human Systems in the Arctic
and Subarctic (SYNICE, SASS II)Astrid Ogilvie
Environmental Variability, Bowhead Whale Distributions, and
Iñupiat Subsistence Whaling: Whaling Linkages and Resilience of
an Alaskan Coastal System (SNACS) Craig Nicolson
Nelson Island Natural and Cultural Knowledge Project (BEST) Ann
Riordan
ELOKA (IPY/AON) Henry Huntington
Is the Arctic Human System Moving to a New State (IPY/AON Jack
Kruse/Larry Hamilton)
Bering Sea Sub-Network (IPY/AON) Victoria Gofman
Employment and Sustainability in a Time of Transition: Human
Capital Development, Firm strategy, and Community in the Arctic
(IPY/HPR) Hal Salzman
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Long Term Human Ecodynamics in the Norse North Atlantic:
Cases of Sustainability, Survival, and Collapse (IPY/HPR)Tom McGovern
SEARCH-Relevant Observational Data
 Data
Commonalities and Indexed Time Series
– Parallel time series across multiple data sets from present day
water use to historic faming
– Demographics , wage labour, land use including high latitude
agriculture, sea ice, some subsistence
– Local and regional scale
 Spatial
and Temporal Coverage - Large data gaps
Historic sea ice data and sea ice services for North Atlantic
 Historic land use data for Iceland and Greenland
 Recent water use for Alaska (key water indicators)
 Recent human/marine system interactions including sea ice
and bowheads (north slope AK, Labrador, Iceland only)
 Some pan-Arctic but very limited in scope (i.e.
human/rangifer systems)
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 Multi-decadal
to century-scale in some regions
 Annual and daily resolution in others
 In general, most time series very short or even snapshot
quality
Observational Needs
Broader
Human/Biophysical Domain Coverage
– Observations of ecosystem/human systems (outside the range of those
currently collected and including physical/oceanographic,
paleoecology)
– Observations relevant to understanding, mitigating and responding to
arctic change, including changing pathways, regional scale
predictability, economic development
– Observations of features most sensitivity to natural variability, including
features of the human domain (i.e., seasonally dependent activities, food
production and access, energy production and access, political
in/stability etc.)
For Example
 Oil infrastructure is built on the premise of the existing ice structure
 Increasing unpredictability in variability in access to water for ice
road construction
 Impacts and feedbacks of alternative forms of access at regional and
global scales
 Specialist vs. generalist systems and ability to respond to change in
oil availability whether as a function of access to oil or shift in price
etc.
Understanding Objectives
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Understanding human interactions with and feedbacks
to upper trophic levels and a wide range of ecosystem
services
Understanding responses and feedbacks to changes in
seasonality (bio/physical domain)
Predicting impacts and feedbacks from changing
access to ecosystem services (competition, conflict etc.)
Predicting impacts and feedbacks of arctic and global
development activities
– On the natural system (i.e. increased pollution, change in human
footprint on marine and terrestrial systems )
– On human system (i.e. rural/urban communication networks, food
systems including high latitude agriculture and aquaculture
developments, changing disease patterns, changing chemical
transport pathways, shifting parasite loads etc.)
Understanding Needs
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Increased data integration and analysis of
diverse data sets
– Common observational data collections protocols
– Implementation of advanced multivariate statistical
approaches to data analysis
– Downscale modeling of feedbacks and interactions
– Ability to characterizing potential state changes
(downscale)
– Ability to predict/understand potential alternative
states across all domains (downscale)
– Ability to predict future conjunctions and
trajectories of change in the context of global system
– Global teleconnections across domains
Responding to Change
 Major
Challenges
– Identifying environmental signals in human behaviour
– Determining what kind of an environmental signal
will begin to impact decision making at all levels (from
individual to global government)
– Developing and communicating policy relevant
scientific information
– Developing best practices for communication of model
outputs (from GCM to downscale) and options for
mitigation and adaptation to stakeholders at all levels
– Effecting behaviour change – mitigation and
adaptation