0: Contents:
0. Overview
1. Stocktaking – the situation is
better than one may think
2. Technical situation – several
options are available
3. Economic situation – everyone
should be able to have access,
even if shared.
4. Institutional situation – role
models exist. The Pacific has
good opportunities – if it moves
soon.
5. Appendices – online only
David Hastings
Information, Communication and
Space Technology Division
United Nations ESCAP, Bangkok
hastings@un.org
1: Stocktaking background
2: Pacific Islands Socioeconomics – “Bargain knowledge workers”
Population
GDP_PC_PPP
HDI.Eq.Inc
Income
Ratio
Life Expectancy
Literacy
HDI 2007
Papua New Guinea
6473910
2501
2300
1.1
65
65
0.530
New Zealand
4268000
26660
26500
1.0
79
99
0.943
Hawaii
1283388
53123
33000
1.6
80
99
0.97
Timor Leste
1115000
400
2200
0.2
66
59
0.514
Fiji
839324
6090
9050
0.7
70
94
0.762
Solomon Islands
517455
2049
3500
0.6
73
77
0.602
French Polynesia
263267
17500
10700
1.6
76
98
0.78
New Caledonia
246614
15000
11350
1.3
74
91
0.79
Vanuatu
233026
3493
5100
0.7
63
74
0.674
Samoa
179645
6823
10600
0.6
71
99
0.785
Guam
178980
15000
22000
0.7
79
99
0.90
Tonga
102724
8694
12800
0.7
70
99
0.81
Micronesia
110443
3900
3900
1.0
70
89
0.61
Kiribati
97231
2397
3900
0.6
62
100
0.61
Northern Mariana Is.
62969
12500
15500
0.8
76
97
0.84
Marshall Islands
53236
2300
4100
0.6
71
94
0.62
American Samoa
66107
5800
12800
0.5
76
97
0.81
Cook Islands
15537
5000
7500
0.7
72
95
0.72
Palau
20279
5800
9500
0.6
70
92
0.76
Wallis and Futuna
15472
3800
7000
0.5
69
95
0.71
Nauru
10163
5000
7000 =
0.7
63
95
0.71
Tuvalu
9729
1100
5500
0.2
68
98
0.67
Niue
1549
3600
10700
0.3
70
95
0.78
Norfolk Island
2114
27000
26500
1.0
78
99
0.93
Economy
/
3: Typically Expressed Challenges
Now: good answers for most
•
Small populations (is 10+ million people small – compared with success stories like
Singapore, Hong Kong, the Eastern Caribbean, Mauritius?).
•
Widely dispersed/isolated (like Atlantic Ocean African cities, Mauritius, the Eastern
Caribbean?).
•
About half of ~600 populated islands have telecoms - much of those have 2-way radio.
(Solar-powered satellite phone can be cheaper (~40 cents/minute) than current systems for
long-distance calling or emergency communication in some economies.)
•
Saddled with legacy “monopolistic” concessions This is a policy which can be
maintained or changed. (The eastern Caribbean found that monopolies violate constitutional
provisions for freedom of expression, including to receive and disseminate freely).
•
Not attractive to investors (But many are knowledge societies with 90+% literacy and more
than competitive wages, or are excellent markets for distance education – Pacific islands are
solutions awaiting good partners). Maybe US$80 million/year could be available for investors,
if more competitive prices/services were available.
•
Cable and satellite are expensive (Telikom PNG just re-deployed 1st-generation cable for
US$11 million. Adding Tonga, Samoa or Vanuatu to existing cabling might cost $4 million
each. A new broadband satellite, with local participation, could serve Pacific island states as
well as bigger markets. Is it time to pursue such goals?)
4: Options
5: An alternative to high-priced 2G cable?
Re-deployed (good quality) 1G cable ~$2-5 million per leg?
“SPIN++” or for US$35-50M, rather than for US$100+M?
6: How much for a Pacific satellite? Can it attract markets in Asia, ANZ, Americas?
EDUSAT was built and launched for $65 million. Could 2 EDUSATs serve you?
P
a
c
i
f
i
c
i
s
l
a
n
d
Anik F2 spot beams
7: Thuraya ECO SIM: USA$.20/.39 calls – coverage area
8: DC-powered terminals, PCs, phones
(universal service – even off the power grid)
9: Economic
10: Is there enough money to pay for improvements?
• Prof. James McMaster estimated US$66M/year saved by current-model
telecoms. 13 Pacific economies.
• For all economies in this study, we guess US$80M/yr => >US$1.2 Billion
over 15 years of cable, satellite.
•
•
Satellite =>$100-400M? Cable => $50-500M?
15 yr savings => $1200M? => “the money is there” (?)
11: A challenge: Falling telecoms prices: Will they bankrupt providers?
(Traffic growth usually outpaces price declines – bringing profits)
Source:
Telegeography
12: Institutional
13: Good experiences? (satellite)
• OPT & Telecom Cook Islands – shared satcom bandwidth.
Such models can save $$$ elsewhere in the Pacific.
• Before going for a new satellite, should Pacific consortia
try negotiating with Sat-GE-23, AsiaSat, and others (to
form a supplier/user consortium) to serve the Pacific safely
for less $
• O3B Networks – sounds good – but details of up-front,
marginal (bandwidth, Earth station operations costs), and
possible regulatory challenges are needed.
Good experiences? (cable)
Affordable re-deployment of 1st-generation cable?
PNG? Samoa (an update today?)
14: Good experiences? (regulatory, etc.)
• ECTEL’s Caribbean federation helped small island
states build competitive modern telecoms systems.
• Dominica determined that restriction of telecoms
competition infringed on constitutional freedom of
expression. Laws & contracts establishing
monopolies were declared unconstitutional, thus void.
• Competitive mobile phone services/pricing in the
Caribbean & elsewhere are dramatically increasing
accessibility, even to low-income people.
15: Possible Next Steps?
• Short-term?: (a) Forming state-provider user consortia to
aggregate user volumes, to obtain more cost-effective
group(ed) rates satellite operators for cheaper bandwidth?
(PITA is working on this.) (b) be ready to negotiate
(cohesively?) with possible cable promoters?
• Medium-term?: (a) pursue wholesale-able & retail-able
affordable infrastructure? (b) pursue services? (c) pursue
partnerships toward providing more cutting edge
services/pricing? (d) opportunistically pursue cable landings
as opportunities may arise?
• Longer-term?: (a) pursue a satellite, and additional
marketable services? (b) pursue additional retailers, who
could become your customers for wholesaling services?
16: Summary
1.
2.
3.
4.
Typically expressed challenges – Now: good answers for most.
Is there enough money to pay for improvements? Yes.
Do governments have to pay for or subsidize infrastructure or customers? No.
Good experiences to adapt? – how to leverage for the Pacific?
a.
Monopolies – (1) Found to be unconstitutional impingement of freedom of expression in the
Caribbean. Laws, contracts were declared void. (2) Competitors DO want to come into small
economies, where opportunity exists. (3) A single provider CAN act competitively – but supportive
practices, and accountability, need to be in place.
a.
Are people offering you a cable for $50-150 million? How about $3-15 million as
happened for PNG? Are they offering landings for $3 million? (How about being a part owner if
you must capitalize the system, as was done for WASC in Africa)?
6.
a.
Short-term satellite – groups arranging for better collective deals? It happened in .pf and .ci.
a.
Longer-term: Can the Pacific get a satellite, also generating revenue from Pacific rim
Western Pacific – 40-cent/minute international satcom phone calls? (Thuraya ECO system.)
economies? Something like this was offered to the Pacific, but “not responded to”. It could be
offered again. Satellites are often costed at $300+ million. But they have been built/launched for <
$100 million.
Pacific decisionmakers could use a colleague network to make good decisions, and to
design, build, operate and support good modern telecoms.
7.
How to benefit from cooperation?: The Pacific has many regional cooperative institutions, among
governments & service providers. At Noumea in March (2008), a strategy for moving forward, using the
Pacific Plan Digital Strategy, was sketched. Is this what you also think? Are more resources useful? I
wish I were with you for the rest of the day, as you discuss this and other issues on moving
forward.
17: For the Pacific – is it time to better leverage regional cooperation
toward affordable “universal service?”
For several other non-ideally connected economies. Maybe there is a
little of the Pacific (‘s problems) in you, and a little of you (‘re
problems) in the Pacific? Is there an opportunity to strengthen your
own situation through greater cooperation?
David Hastings (author-speaker):
hastingsd@un.org (to 31 December)
roi@earthling.net (after 31 December)
WU Guoxiang (ESCAP, Bangkok): wugu@un.org
Thank You!