UNCLASSIFIED APEX 39 CAPE Priorities & Opportunities Jamie Morin OSD CAPE 9 September 2014 PLCC B6 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Agenda • Introduction to CAPE • PPBE Process & Building PB15 • PB15 Summary • New Defense Strategy • Expected Themes in PB16 • End Game Speculation • Continuing Challenges UNCLASSIFIED 2 UNCLASSIFIED Introduction to CAPE • Independent advisor to SECDEF and DEPSECDEF on programmatic resource allocation issues and decisions • Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara established “Systems Analysis” in 1961 (McNamara’s “Whiz Kids”) to analyze nearly every aspect of the DoD budget • Name changed to Program Analysis & Evaluation (PA&E) in 1970s • Weapons Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009 changed the name to Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation (CAPE) – Focus on reducing cost overruns and schedule delays (ICEs, AoAs, etc.) • Play a key role in the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, & Execution (PPBE) process – Links the defense strategy to resources – “Big P” versus “little p” UNCLASSIFIED 3 UNCLASSIFIED PPBE Process & Building PB15 • CAPE’s focus is on FY16 and beyond (informed by what’s happening today • Strategic Choices & Management Review (SCMR) was completed in the summer – Provided insight that was used to adjust Service toplines in fiscal guidance • Fiscal guidance emphasized that we have less of a need for large ground forces, but that we should protect forces needed for Asia/Pacific conflicts UNCLASSIFIED 4 UNCLASSIFIED PB15 Summary • Navy – Efficiencies – Cruiser modifications (innovative) • Air Force – Cut A-10s and legacy modification; Protected F-35, Tanker & Bomber – KC-10s • Army – GCV – Helo restructure – Force structure targets • Marine Corps – Focused on readiness UNCLASSIFIED 5 PB15 Topline UNCLASSIFIED We’re still living with uncertainty $650 $625 $600 ($Billions) $575 $550 $525 $26B Fund What do we know? • Continuing Resolution • Election year • New defense strategy • Reduced reliance on OCO $500 What don’t we know? • No new budget deal • What topline OMB will submit • How to address unfunded $$ • Long term health of force $475 $450 FY14 UNCLASSIFIED FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 6 UNCLASSIFIED New Defense Strategy • QDR & PB15 Strategy • Attempt to measure delta in sequestration in terms of the strategy • Secretary’s speech suggests a much less capable force – – – – UNCLASSIFIED How much less capable? In what areas? What can we do about it? How do we maximize the performance of a sequestered force? 7 UNCLASSIFIED Expected Themes in PB16 • Budget disconnects • Uncertainties – – – – Topline levels BRAC authority Compensation Other unknowns • What we know – Continuing Resolution likely in the fall – Elections this fall – Debt ceiling suspended until March 2015 • What we DON’T know – No new budget deal – Long term health of force (depends on where we are in the out-years) UNCLASSIFIED 8 UNCLASSIFIED End Game Speculation • Submit a higher, non-sequestered budget level • Need a plan to prepare a budget at at sequestered budget levels if we do not get the topline we want UNCLASSIFIED 9 UNCLASSIFIED Balancing Challenges Fiscal Uncertainty • • • • Topline Timing OCO Action on prior requests Strategic & Operational Challenges • • • • Shift to Asia – away game, geography, & A2AD EM Spectrum Dominance Commercial technological pacing vs DoD OODA Loop Adversary cost imposition UNCLASSIFIED Internal Cost Pressures • People • Acquisition • Operations and Support 10 UNCLASSIFIED BACKUP UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED CAPE Org Chart DIRECTOR, CAPE Jamie M. Morin Principal Deputy Director LtGen Robert E. Schmidle Jr. Cost Assessment Program Evaluation Analysis & Integration Deputy Director Rick Burke Deputy Director Scott Comes Deputy Director Vacant Front Office Team Program, Data, & Enterprise Services Deputy Director Joseph Nogueira Economic and Manpower Analysis Land Forces Program Analysis Enterprise Services Weapon Systems Cost Analysis Naval Forces Simulation Analysis Center Joint Data Support Advanced Systems Cost Analysis Tactical Air Forces Force Structure & Risk Assessment Operating and Support Cost Analysis Projection Forces Program Resources & Information Systems Management Irregular Warfare C4 and Information Programs Strategic Defensive & Space Prgms Force and Infrastructure Analysis Intelligence, Surveillance, & Rec. UNCLASSIFIED 12