Challenges for Standards and Innovation Policies in the Emerging Global Knowledge Economy Dieter Ernst, East-West Center, Honolulu 1 1. Argument Changes in the international standardization landscape pose new challenges for standards and innovation policy: 1. The economic importance of standards has dramatically increased. At the same time, standards development has become more complicated and difficult to manage. Standards development now is a highly contested field of corporate strategy, but increasingly also of public policy: 2. Standards and innovation policy Standards and competition policy © Dieter Ernst 2 Why does this matter? Claim: Market-led system of standardization is working well no need for policy adjustments (really?) Crisis shows - markets work best when there is a strong regulatory framework. Challenges for standardization are real: established approaches to standards development are under pressure there are serious gaps in the governance of standards development. It is time for stakeholders in standardization (both in the private and public sector) to search for new institutional arrangements and policy responses. © Dieter Ernst 3 2. Explanation – Technological complexity multiple standards complex standardization process - system versus component specification demanding performance requirements for electronic systems modular design system integration on a chip multiple layers of standardization Complexity of applications requires standardization of hardware, operating system and network © Dieter Ernst 4 Multiple standards Quality Reliability Privacy Safety Seller Market Interface Interoperability Performance © Dieter Ernst Buyer Security Environment 5 Apple iPhone 3G © Dieter Ernst 6 Layers of IT standardization Applications Network 1 Operating system Hardware 3 Applications Network Operating system Hardware 2 1= standardization starts with CPU, memory, storage & communication gear 2= standardization moves down from applications to hardware 3= enhance interoperability between systems at various layers © Dieter Ernst 7 Complexity Complexity of applications requires standardization of hardware, operating system and network Hardware Time Operating System Source: Lord, 2007 Network Applications © Dieter Ernst 8 Interoperability standards in the ICT industry Wireless interface standards - ensure noninterfering use of radio spectrum; Interoperability within a system ensure that various parts of the computer, radio and network systems function together ensure compatibility of equipment produced by various vendors; Portability - permits software to work with heterogeneous systems Data exchange among different systems © Dieter Ernst 9 3. Standards for global corporate networks Reliable and secure communication of sensitive information within and across networks Interfaces (middleware) among proprietary information systems Data formats to enable transmission and interpretation of data Efficient methods for updating standards to accommodate new technologies © Dieter Ernst 10 Inter-firm THE NODES OF A GLOBAL PRODUCTION NETWORK Independent suppliers Independent subcontractors Cooperative agreements (standards consortia,etc) FLAG SHIP R&D alliances Subsidiaries & affiliates Intra-firm Distribution channels Joint ventures 11 © Dieter Ernst Inter-firm THE NODES OF A GLOBAL PRODUCTION NETWORK Independent suppliers Independent subcontractors Distribution channels Multiple standards Subsidiaries & affiliates Intra-firm Cooperative agreements (standards consortia,etc) FLAG SHIP R&D alliances Joint ventures 12 © Dieter Ernst 4. China’s Rise – can US adjust to interdependence? Global Knowledge Economy eroding US leadership in manufacturing, trade, finance, technology and research. The US may have less influence than in the past to determine international standards development. New players: standards are important instruments for industrial and economic development. move from being standards-takers to standardsco-shapers and ultimately to standards-setters. © Dieter Ernst 13 Countries differ in standardization policies Innovators (with high • Laws and trade policies IP producers) protect IP owners • “openness” subordinated to IP protection Manufacturers (primarily IP users) •Focus on social good (“development”) and sharing of IP • “openness” subordinated to national development © Dieter Ernst 14 US and Chinese standardization systems differ US China Distributed, driven by private sector Centralized, driven by the State (industrial policy; security) Pragmatic, flexible, bottom-up Systematic, bureaucratic, top-down Reactive, responding to Anticipatory and strategic specific needs International standards often only guides Tension between national & international standards Intense rivalry among SDOs & consortia Intense intra-agency rivalry Foreign participation welcome Limited foreign participation 15 © Dieter Ernst 5. Implications for public governance Is it appropriate to conclude that the old-style top down government intervention won’t do the trick any longer on its own? new forms of public governance are necessary to cope with the new standardization challenges? © Dieter Ernst 16 Q&A 17 Global innovation networks – a taxonomy Global companies “offshore” stages of innovation to Asian affiliates I. Global firms “outsource” stages of innovation to specialized Asian suppliers II. III. IV. V. intra-firm networks inter-firm networks Asian firms construct their own (mostly intrafirm) networks International public-corporate R&D consortia Informal social networks (students, knowledge workers) © Dieter Ernst 18 New Players: Huawei Kista/Stockholm, Sweden base station architecture and system design; analogmixed signal design (RF); algorithms; 3GPP (standards) Moscow, Russia algorithms; analog-mixed signal design (RF) Bangalore, India embedded SW and platforms Plano/Texas (Dallas telecom corridor) total solutions for CDMA; G3 UMTS; CDMA Mobile Intelligent Networks; mobile data service; optical; VoIP Joint R&D labs with Vodafone, British Telecom, Telecom Italia, France Telecom, Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom © Dieter Ernst 19 Global Chip Design Network - multiple interfaces require multiple standards EMS IDM Tool vendors IP Licensors Fabless System Company Chip assembly Design support services Foundry ODM Adapted from: Ernst, D., 2005a, Complexity and Internationalisation of Innovation, IJIM, March20 5. Adjustments are necessary in standards & innovation policies Standardization is an integral part of innovation policy Flexibility & rapid response to changes in technology, markets & market structure Combine pragmatic, flexible and bottom-up approach with systematic, strategic and topdown approach Open standards are essential (not redundant) competition policy needs to be integrated with standards policy © Dieter Ernst 21 The Elusive Nature of Open Standards “All vendors pay lip service to open systems, but agreement ends here. The computer industry needs as many words for “open” as Eskimos need for snow.” “Market leaders are rarely friendly to open standards when they dominate and eager to see them when they do not.” * * “Market leaders are friendly to standards in layers above and below them so as to use the competition among others to increase choices, lower costs, and broaden the market.” * * * Libicki (1995); * * Libicki, RAND study, 2000 © Dieter Ernst 22 Standards strategies for latecomers Leader deploy technology and then initiate standards based upon the deployed technology Participant deploy existing international standard in current and future products Fast follower get existing standard as quickly as possible so that products with the standard’s technology can be deployed quickly © Dieter Ernst 23 Criteria for Evaluating Standards Policy Cultural consistency (history matters!) Standards differ across sectors Capability for evaluation & foresight Cost effective solutions require legitimacy from diverse stakeholders Incentives to promote positive-sum games through “integrative bargaining” Equivalency with international norms & procedures (not blind compliance) Robust competition law & enforcement OTA 1992 © Dieter Ernst 24 Pragmatic standards policy –guiding principles Collect a small group of vendors; Write a small, simple specification that covers the important functions and omits nonessentials; Leave room for both new technologies and possible backtracking; Identify real-world test-beds for the standard Get the standard out of the door as soon as possible Libicki, 1995 © Dieter Ernst 25 Pragmatic standards policy –key questions What problem needs to be solved by standardization? Who are the key players that must be involved? What are appropriate approaches to incentives and conflict gaming? Can the problem be solved domestically? Or must it be solved internationally? What is the smallest solution? And can it be broken into manageable chunks? What are the best policy tools (e.g. imprimatur, R&D, targeted purchases, regulation) to promote compliance with the standard that also permit backing off if the standard fails? Should a domestic solution be exported? Libicki, 1995 © Dieter Ernst 26 Coordination – national (US) Interagency USTR, DoC (standards in trade agreements) FTC, DoJ, FTC (standards and antitrust policies) ANSI – NIST- USPTO – DoD- DoE- DoA- DoH, etc Which USG agency coordinates definition of strategy and implementation? Broad dialogues among multiple stakeholders Public-private Role of SMEs Consumers With international SDOs and SSOs © Dieter Ernst 27 Coordination – national (China) Interagency Standardization Administration of China (SAC) China Association for Standardization (CAS) China Communications Standards Association (CCSA) MIIT vs SARFT MOFCOM (standards in trade agreements) ?? (standards and antitrust policies) Which agency coordinates definition of strategy and implementation? CCP –Central Organization Department (Zhongzubu)? Broad dialogues among multiple stakeholders Public-private Role of SMEs Consumers With international SDOs and SSOs © Dieter Ernst 28 Coordination - international No ‘institutionalization” that is comparable to IPR (e.g. TRIPS) Increasing balkanization Diverse models of SSOs intense competition Links between SDOs and SSOs in flux Which agency coordinates definition of governance and implementation? (analog to IMF; BIS) How to establish broad dialogues among multiple stakeholders? Public-private; Role of SMEs; consumers IETF; UN-IGF; DCOS; A2K; ..? © Dieter Ernst 29