Investment Analysis II Welcome to MGMT-6330 Investment Analysis II Convenor: Houman Younessi email: youneh@rpi.edu Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 1 Investment Analysis II Objective Advanced study in Investment Analysis and Risk Management. Emphasis is on fixed-income analysis and derivatives in the context of portfolio management. Topics will include the use of options, futures, emerging markets finance, and fixed-income alternatives. Bond pricing, term structure, duration, and convexity are examined. The role of alternative asset classes, private equity, and hedge funds in an efficient portfolio is explored. Other topics include the International investment environment, a historical examination of speculation in the financial markets, the role of Behavioral Finance and fiduciary duty in investment and business decision-making. The role and use of technology in developing and executing financial models is embedded in course content. Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 2 Investment Analysis II Textbooks: Swensen, D.F.; Pioneering Portfolio Management; Simon and Shuster – Free Press; 2009. Nofsinger, J.R.; The Psychology of Investing; 3rd edition; Pearson Prentice – Hall; 2008 Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 3 Investment Analysis II Grading: Group Workshop Assignment 20 Percent Team Project 50 Percent Manager evaluation 30 Percent Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 4 Investment Analysis II Scope of course is: INSTITUTIONAL portfolio management Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 5 Investment Analysis II University endowment management is probably the best form of institutional portfolio management - Long term - We all know the business - Needs are often more complex than corporations Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 6 Investment Analysis II Let us start at the beginning: Objective of all (sane) investors: return good results How? Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 7 Investment Analysis II Trouble is: Most, yes most, buy high and sell low Buy high: - Exuberance - Herd mentality Sell low: - Despair - Herd mentality Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 8 Investment Analysis II If you make a 50% loss, you have to make a corresponding 100% gain to just get even Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 9 Investment Analysis II Must Play Defensive Defensive does not mean making conventional or conservative investments or employing unimaginative, unoriginal, and “proven” staff and external fund managers Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 10 Investment Analysis II It means: Ensuring technical competence and knowledge and understanding of: - Finance theory - Macroeconomics - Financial and sectoral history - Current affairs and events Safeguarding against biases: - Incentive and ethical based biases (the principal/agent problem) - Psychologically based - Self deception - Simplification - Yielding to disposition 11 Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi Investment Analysis II LET THE GAMES BEGIN Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 12 Investment Analysis II So, what have we learned? Communication is tricky, we have to be careful with the data we are given We are often not as good as we think we are The world is often not as simple as we think it is The world is complex enough, do not over-complicate things Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 13 Investment Analysis II So, what must we do? We must: Know the theory and tools Know ourselves Know others Know the environment Know the market Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 14 Investment Analysis II Theory and tools QUIZ Investment Analysis II - © 2012 Houman Younessi 15