Chapter 9 Debt Valuation and Interest Rates Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Slide Contents • Learning Objectives • Principles Used in This Chapter 1.Overview of Corporate Debt 2.Valuing Corporate Debt 3.Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships 4.Types of Bonds 5.Determinants of Interest Rates • Key Terms Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-2 Learning Objectives 1. Identify the key features of bonds and describe the difference between private and public debt markets. 2. Calculate the value of a bond and relate it to the yield to maturity on the bond. 3. Describe the four key bond valuation relationships. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-3 Learning Objectives (cont.) 4. Identify the major types of corporate bonds. 5. Explain the effects of inflation on interest rates and describe the term structure of interest rates. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-4 Principles Used in This Chapter • Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value. – Debt securities require that the borrower repay the lender over time so cash flows have to be adjusted for time value of money. • Principle 2: There is a Risk-Return Tradeoff. – The rate used to discount future cash flows depends on the risk of default by the borrower. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-5 Principles Used in This Chapter (cont.) • Principle 3: Cash Flows Are the Source of Value – Debt securities provide value to the lender through the interest payments on the outstanding loan amount and the repayment of the loan balance itself. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-6 9.1 Overview of Corporate Debt Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Corporate Borrowings • There are two main sources of borrowing for a corporation: 1. Loan from a financial institution (known as private debt) 2. Bonds (known as public debt since they can be traded in public financial markets) Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-8 Corporate Borrowings (cont.) • Smaller firms choose to raise money from banks in the form of loans because of the high costs associated with issuing bonds. • Larger firms generally raise money from banks for short-term needs and depend on the bond market for long-term financing needs. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-9 Borrowing Money in the Private Financial Market • Financial Institutions are an important source of capital for corporations. The loan might be used to finance firm’s day-to-day operations or it might be used for the purchase of equipment or property. • Such loans are considered private market transactions since it only involves the two parties to the loan. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-10 Borrowing Money in the Private Financial Market (cont.) • In the private financial market, loans are typically floating rate loans i.e. the interest rate is periodically adjusted based on a specific benchmark rate. • The most popular benchmark rate is the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-11 Borrowing Money in the Private Financial Market (cont.) • LIBOR is the daily interest rate that is based on the interest rates at which banks offer to lend in the London wholesale or interbank market. – Interbank market is the market where banks loan each other money. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-12 Borrowing Money in the Private Financial Market (cont.) • A typical floating rate loan will specify the following: – The spread or margin between the loan rate and the benchmark rate expressed as basis points. – A maximum and a minimum annual rate, to which the rate can adjust, called the ceiling and floor. – A maturity date – Collateral Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-13 Borrowing Money in the Private Financial Market (cont.) • For example, a corporation may get a 1year loan with a rate of 300 basis points (or 3%) over LIBOR with a ceiling of 11% and a floor of 4%. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-14 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-15 Checkpoint 9.1 Calculating the Rate of Interest on a Floating Rate Loan The Slinger Metal Fabricating Company entered into a loan agreement with its bank to finance the firm’s working capital. The loan called for a floating rate that was 25 basis points (.25%) over an index based on LIBOR. In addition, the loan adjusted weekly based on the closing value of the index for the previous week within the bounds of a maximum annual rate of 2.5% and a minimum of 1.75%. Calculate the rate of interest for the weeks 2 through 10. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-16 Checkpoint 9.1 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-17 Checkpoint 9.1 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-18 Checkpoint 9.1 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-19 Checkpoint 9.1 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-20 Checkpoint 9.1: Check Yourself Consider the same loan period as above but change the spread over LIBOR from .25% to .75%. Is the ceiling rate or floor rate violated during the loan period? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-21 Step 1: Picture the Problem • The graph on the next slide shows the LIBOR index (series 1), LIBOR plus the spread of 75 basis points (series 2) the ceiling rate (series 3), and the floor rate (series 4). Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-22 Step 1: Picture the Problem (cont.) Floating Rate Loans 3.00% 2.50% Interest Rate 2.00% Series1 Series2 1.50% Series3 Series4 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 1 2 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-23 Step 2: Decide on a Solution Strategy • We have to determine the floating rate for every week and see if it exceeds the ceiling or falls below the floor. • Floating rate on Loan = LIBOR for the previous week + spread of .75% Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-24 Step 2: Decide on a Solution Strategy • The floating rate on loan cannot exceed the ceiling rate of 2.5% or drop below the floor rate of 1.75%. – If the floating rate falls below the floor, the rate will be reset at the floor rate. – If the floating rate exceeds the ceiling, the rate will be reset at the ceiling rate. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-25 Step 3: Solve LIBOR LIBOR + Spread (.75%) Loan Rate 2/29/2008 1.98% 3/7/2008 1.66% 2.73% 2.50% 3/14/2008 1.52% 2.44% 2.41% 3/21/2008 1.35% 2.27% 2.27% 3/28/2008 1.60% 2.10% 2.10% 4/4/2008 1.63% 2.35% 2.35% 4/11/2008 1.67% 2.38% 2.38% 4/18/2008 1.88% 2.42% 2.42% 4/25/2008 1.93% 2.63% 2.50% 2.68% 2.50% 5/2/2008 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Ceiling Violated 9-26 Step 3: Solve (cont.) • The table shows the ceiling is violated during the first week and last two weeks of the loan period. The floor rate is never violated. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-27 Step 4: Analyze • The ceiling is the maximum rate charged on the loan while floor is the minimum rate charged on the loan. If the ceiling or floor rates are violated, the loan rate is reset to the ceiling rate or the floor rate. • If there were no ceiling, the loan rate would have been 2.73% during the first week of the loan, and 2.63% and 2.68% during the last two weeks of the loan. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-28 Borrowing Money in the Public Financial Market • Firms also raise money by selling debt securities to individual investors and financial institutions such as mutual funds. • In order to sell debt securities to the public, the issuing firm must meet the legal requirements as specified by the securities laws. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-29 Borrowing Money in the Public Financial Market • Corporate bond is a debt security issued by corporation that has promised future payments and a maturity date. • If the firm fails to pay the promised future payments of interest and principal, the bond trustee can classify the firm as insolvent and force the firm into bankruptcy. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-30 Basic Bond Features • The basic features of a bond include the following: – – – – – – Bond Indenture Claims on Assets and Income Par or Face Value Coupon Interest Rate Maturity and Repayment of Principal Call Provision and Conversion Features Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-31 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-32 Bond Ratings and Default Risk • Bond ratings indicate the default risk i.e. the probability that the firm will make the promised payments. • Bond ratings affect the rate of return that lenders require of the firm and the firm’s cost of borrowing. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-33 Bond Ratings and Default Risk (cont.) • Consistent with Principle 2 (There is a Risk-Return Tradeoff), the lower the bond rating, the higher the risk of default and higher the rate of return demanded in the capital market. • Bond ratings are provided by three rating agencies – Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch Investor Services. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-34 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-35 9.2 Valuing Corporate Debt Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Valuing Corporate Debt • The value of corporate debt is equal to the present value of the contractually promised principal and interest payments (the cash flows) discounted back to the present using the market’s required yield. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-37 Valuing Corporate Debt (cont.) • The valuation of corporate debt relies on the first three basic principles of finance: – Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value. – Principle 2: There is a Risk-Return Tradeoff. – Principle 3: Cash Flows are the Source of Value. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-38 Step-by-Step: Valuing Bonds by Discounting Future Cash Flows • Step 1: Determine the amount and timing of bondholder cash flows. The total cash flows equal the promised interest payments and principal payment. • Annual Interest = Par value × coupon rate • Example 9.1: The annual interest for a bond with coupon interest rate of 7% and a par value of $1,000 is equal to $70, (.07 × $1,000 = $70). Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-39 Step-by-Step: Valuing Bonds by Discounting Future Cash Flows (cont.) • Step 2: Estimate the appropriate discount rate on a similar risk bond. Discount rate is the return the bond will yield if it is held to maturity and all bond payments are made. • Discount rate can be either calculated or obtained from various sources (such as Yahoo! Finance). Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-40 Step-by-Step: Valuing Bonds by Discounting Future Cash Flows (cont.) • Step 3: Calculate the present value of the bond’s interest and principal payments from Step 1 using the discount rate estimated in step 2. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-41 Calculating a Bond’s Yield to Maturity (YTM) • We can think of YTM as the discount rate that makes the present value of the bond’s promised interest and principal equal to the bond’s observed market price. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-42 Checkpoint 9.2 Calculating the Yield to Maturity on a Corporate Bond Calculate the yield to maturity for the following bond issued by Ford Motor Company (F) with a price of $744.80, where we assume that interest payments are made annually at the end of each year and the bond has a maturity of exactly 11 years. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-43 Checkpoint 9.2 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-44 Checkpoint 9.2 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-45 Checkpoint 9.2 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-46 Checkpoint 9.2: Check Yourself Calculate the YTM on the Ford bond where the bond price rises to $900 (holding all other things equal). Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-47 Step 1: Picture the Problem YTM=? Years Cash flow 0 1 -$900 $65 2 $65 3… $65 11 $1,065 • Purchase price = $900 • Interest payments = $65 per year for years 1-11 • Final payment = $1,000 in year 11 of principal. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-48 Step 2: Decide on a Solution Strategy • We can use equation 9-2a to find YTM. YTM is the rate that makes the present value of all future expected cash flows equal to the current market price. • We can also solve for YTM using a calculator and a spreadsheet. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-49 Step 3: Solve • Using Mathematical Equation • It is cumbersome to solve for YTM by hand using the equation. It is more practical to use the financial calculator or the spread sheet. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-50 Step 3: Solve (cont.) • Using Financial Calculator Enter: N = 11 I/Y = 7.89 PV = -900 PMT = 65 FV = 1,000 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-51 Step 3: Solve (cont.) • Using an Excel Spreadsheet • YTM = RATE(nper, pmt,pv,fv) = RATE (11,65,-900,1000) = 7.89% Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-52 Step 4: Analyze • The yield to maturity on the bond is 7.89%. The yield is higher than the coupon rate of interest of 6.5%. Since the coupon rate is lower than the yield to maturity, the bond is trading at a price below $1,000. We call this a discount bond. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-53 Using Market Yield to Maturity Data • Market yield to maturity is regularly reported by a number of investor services and is quoted in terms of credit spreads or spreads to Treasury bonds. • Table 9-4 contains some examples of yield spreads. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-54 Using Market Yield to Maturity Data (cont.) • The spread values in table 9-4 represent basis points over a US Treasury security of the same maturity as the corporate bond. For example, a 30-year Ba1/BB+ corporate bond has a spread of 275 basis points over a similar 30-year US Treasury bond. • Thus this corporate bond should earn 2.75% over the 4.56% earned on treasury yield or 7.31%. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-55 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-56 Promised Returns versus Expected Yield to Maturity • The yield to maturity calculation assumes that the bond performs according to the terms of the bond contract or indenture. Since corporate bonds are subject to risk of default, the promised yield to maturity may not be equal to expected yield to maturity. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-57 Promised Returns versus Expected Yield to Maturity (cont.) • Example 9.2 Consider a one-year bond that promises a coupon rate of 8% and has a principal (par value) of $1,000. Further assume the bond is currently trading for $850. What is the promised yield to maturity? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-58 Promised Returns versus Expected Yield to Maturity (cont.) • Promised YTM = {(Interest year 1 + Principal) ÷ (Bond Value)} – 1 = {($80+$1,000) ÷ ($850)} – 1 = 27.06% Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-59 Promised Returns versus Expected Yield to Maturity (cont.) • The yield of 27.06% is based on the assumption of no default. • Assume there is a 40% probability of default on this bond and if the bond defaults, the bondholders will receive only 60% of the principal and interest owed. What is the expected YTM on this bond? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-60 Promised Returns versus Expected Yield to Maturity (cont.) • YTMdefault = {(Interest year 1 + Principal)} ÷ (Bond Value)} – 1 = {($80+$1000) × .60} ÷ ($850)} – 1 = -23.76% Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-61 Promised Returns versus Expected Yield to Maturity (cont.) = (27.06 × .60) + (-23.76 × .40) = 6.73% • The financial press quotes promised yield and not expected YTM. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-62 Checkpoint 9.3 Valuing a Bond Issue Consider a $1,000 par value bond issued by AT&T (T) with a maturity date of 2026 and a stated coupon rate of 8.5%. On January 1, 2007, the bond had 20 years left to maturity, and the market’s required yield to maturity for similar rated debt was 7.5%. If the market’s required yield to maturity on a comparable risk bond is 7.5%, what is the value of the bond? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-63 Checkpoint 9.3 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-64 Checkpoint 9.3 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-65 Checkpoint 9.3 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-66 Checkpoint 9.3: Check Yourself Calculate the present value of the AT&T bond should the yield to maturity for comparable risk bonds rise to 9% (holding all other things equal). Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-67 Step 1: Picture the Problem i= 9% Years Cash flows 0 1 2 3… $85 $85 $85 20 $1,085 PV of all Cash flows =? $85 annual interest Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. $85 interest + $1,000 Principal 9-68 Step 2: Decide on a Solution Strategy • Here we know the following: – – – – Annual interest payments = $85 Principal amount or par value = $1,000 Time = 20 years YTM or discount rate = 9% • We can use the above information to determine the value of the bond by discounting future interest and principal payment to the present. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-69 Step 3: Solve • Using Mathematical Equation • Bond Value [ = $ 85{ 1-(1/(1.09)20] $1,000/(1.09)20 ÷ (.20)} + = $85 (9.128) + $178.43 = $954.36 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-70 Step 3: Solve (cont.) • Using a Financial Calculator • Enter: – – – – – N = 20 1/y = 9.0 PMT = 85 FV = 1000 PV = 954.36 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-71 Step 3: Solve (cont.) • Using an Excel Spreadsheet • Bond Value = PV (rate, nper, pmt, fv) = PV (.09,20,85,1000) = $954.36 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-72 Step 4: Analyze • The value of AT&T bond falls to $954.36 when the yield to maturity for comparable risk bond rises to 9%. The bonds are now trading at a discount as the coupon rate on AT&T bonds is lower than the market yield. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-73 Step 4: Analyze (cont.) • An investor who buys AT&T bonds at its current discounted price will earn a promised yield to maturity of 9%. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-74 Semiannual Interest Payments • Corporate bonds typically pay interest to bondholders semiannually. We can adapt Equation (9-2a) from annual to semiannual payments as follows: Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-75 Checkpoint 9.4 Valuing a Bond Issue That Pays Semiannual Interest Reconsider the bond issued by AT&T (T) with a maturity date of 2026 and a stated coupon rate of 8.5%. AT&T pays interest to bondholders on a semiannual basis on January 15 and July 15. On January 1, 2007, the bond had 20 years left to maturity. The market’s required yield to maturity for a similarly rated debt was 7.5% per year or 3.75% for six months. What is the value of the bond? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-76 Checkpoint 9.4 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-77 Checkpoint 9.4 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-78 Checkpoint 9.4 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-79 Checkpoint 9.4 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-80 Checkpoint 9.4: Check Yourself Calculate the present value of the AT&T bond should the yield to maturity on comparable bonds rise to 9% (holding all other things equal). Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-81 Step 1: Picture the Problem 40 6-month periods i= 9% Periods 0 1 Cash flow $42.5 2 $42.5 3… $42.5 40 $1,042.50 PV=? $42.50 Semiannual interest Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. $42.5 interest + $1,000 Principal 9-82 Step 2: Decide on a Solution Strategy • Here we know the following: – – – – Semiannual interest payments = $42.50 Principal amount or par value = $1,000 Time = 20 years or 40 periods YTM or discount rate = 9% or 4.5% for 6months • We can use the above information to determine the value of the bond by discounting future interest and principal payment to the present. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-83 Step 3: Solve • Using Mathematical Equation • Bond Value [ = $ 42.5{ 1-(1/(1.045)40] ÷ (.20)} + $1,000/(1.045)40 = $42.5 (18.40) + $171.93 = $954 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-84 Step 3: Solve (cont.) • Using a Financial Calculator • Enter: – – – – – N = 40 1/y = 4.50 PMT = 42.50 FV = 1000 PV = 954 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-85 Step 3: Solve (cont.) • Using an Excel Spreadsheet • Bond Value = PV (rate, nper, pmt, fv) = PV (.045,40,42.5,1000) = $954 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-86 Step 4: Analyze • Using semi-annual compounding we get a value of $954 for AT&T bonds. This is very close to the value of $954.26 found using annual compounding. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-87 9.3 Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships • First Relationship The value of bond is inversely related to changes in the yield to maturity. YTM = 12% YTM rises to 15% $1,000 $1,000 12% 12% Maturity date 5 years 5 years Bond Value $1,000 $899.44 Par value Coupon rate Bond Value Drops Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-89 Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships (cont.) Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-90 Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships (cont.) • Since future interest rates cannot be predicted, a bond investor is exposed to the risk of changing values of bonds as interest rates change. • The risk to the investor that the value of his or her investment will change is known as interest rate risk. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-91 Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships (cont.) • Second Relationship: The market value of a bond will be less than its par value if the yield to maturity is above the coupon interest rate and will be valued above par value if the yield to maturity is below the coupon interest rate. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-92 Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships (cont.) • There are two sources of return from bond investment: – Periodic interest payments – Capital gain or loss when the bond is sold Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-93 Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships (cont.) • When a bond can be bought for less than its par value, it is called discount bond. For example, buying a $1,000 par value bond for $950. • Bonds will trade at a discount when the yield to maturity on the bond exceeds the coupon rate. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-94 Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships (cont.) • When a bond can be bought for more than its par value, it is called premium bond. For example, buying a $1,000 par value bond for $1,110. • Bonds will trade at a premium when the yield to maturity on the bond is less than the coupon rate. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-95 Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships (cont.) • Third Relationship As the maturity date approaches, the market value of a bond approaches its par value. • Regardless of whether the bond was trading at a discount or at a premium, the price of bond will converge towards par value as the maturity date approaches. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-96 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-97 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-98 Bond Valuation: Four Key Relationships (cont.) • Fourth Relationship Long term bonds have greater interest rate risk than short-term bonds. • While all bonds are affected by a change in interest rates, long-term bonds are exposed to greater volatility as interest rates change. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-99 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-100 9.4 Types of Bonds Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Types of Bonds • Table 9-7 contains a listing of major types of long-term debt securities that are sold in the public financial market. • The differences among the various types of bond are based on the following bond attributes: Secured versus Unsecured, Priority of claim, Initial offering market, Abnormal risk, Coupon level, Amortizing or non-amortizing, and Convertibility. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-102 Types of Bonds (cont.) • Secured versus Unsecured – Secured bonds have specific assets pledged to support repayment of the bond. – Unsecured bond are referred to as debentures. – Bonds secured by lien on real property is called a mortgage bond. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-103 Types of Bonds (cont.) • Priority of Claim – The priority of claim refers to the order of repayment when the firm’s assets are distributed, as in the case of liquidation. – Secured bonds are paid first followed by debentures; Among debentures, subordinated debentures have lower priority than secured debt and unsubordinated debentures. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-104 Types of Bonds (cont.) • Initial Offering Market – Bonds are classified by where they were originally issued (in the domestic bond market or not). – For example, Eurobonds are issued in a foreign country but are denominated in domestic currency. For example, a US corporation issuing bonds in Germany in US dollars. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-105 Types of Bonds (cont.) • Abnormal Risk – Junk, or high-yield, bonds have a belowinvestment grade bond rating. These bonds have a high risk of default as the firms that issued these bonds are facing severe financial problems. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-106 Types of Bonds (cont.) • Coupon Level – Bonds with a zero or very low coupon are called zero coupon bonds. – These bonds are issued at substantial discounts from their par value and promise to repay a zero or very low coupon rate each year. The par value is repaid at the maturity of the bond. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-107 Types of Bonds (cont.) • Amortizing or Non-Amortizing – The payments from amortizing bonds, like a home mortgage, include both the interest and principal. – The payments from a non-amortizing bonds include only interest. At maturity, the bonds repay the par value of bond. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-108 Types of Bonds (cont.) • Convertibility – Convertible bonds are debt securities that can be converted into a firm’s stock at a prespecified price. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-109 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-110 9.5 Determinants of Interest Rates Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Determinants of Interest Rates • As we observed earlier, bond prices vary inversely with interest rates. • Therefore in order to understand bond pricing we need to know the determinants of interest rates. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-112 Real Rate of Interest and the Inflation Premium • Quotes of interest rates in the financial press are commonly referred to as the nominal (or quoted) interest rates. • Real rate of interest adjusts the nominal rate for the expected effects of inflation. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-113 Real Rate of Interest and the Inflation Premium (cont.) • The nominal return or interest rate on a note or bond can be thought of including four basic components: Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-114 Fisher Effect • The relationship between the nominal rate of interest, rnominal , the anticipated rate of inflation, rinflation , and the real rate of interest is known as the Fisher effect. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-115 Fisher Effect (cont.) • Example 9.3 What will be the real rate of interest if the nominal rate of interest is 10% and the anticipated rate of inflation is 3%? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-116 Fisher Effect (cont.) • rreal = {(1+.10) ÷ (1+.03)} – 1 = .0679 or 6.79% Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-117 Fisher Effect (cont.) • We can approximate the real rate of interest as follows: • Real Rate of Interest ≈ Nominal interest rate – Inflation premium Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-118 Checkpoint 9.5 Solving for the Real Rate of Interest You have managed to build up your savings over the three years following your graduation from college to a respectable $10,000 and are wondering how to invest it. Your banker says they could pay you 5% on your account for the next year. However, you recently saw on the news that the expected rate of inflation for next year is 3.5%. If you are earning a 5% annual rate of return but the prices of goods and services are rising at a rate of 3.5%, just how much additional buying power would you gain each year? Stated somewhat differently, what real rate of interest would you earn if you made the investment? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-119 Checkpoint 9.5 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-120 Checkpoint 9.5: Check Yourself Assume now that you expect that inflation will be 5% over the coming year and want to analyze how much better off you will be if you place your savings in an account that also earns just 5%. What is the real rate of return in this circumstance? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-121 Step 1: Picture the Problem • Let us assume that the prices of goods and services today is $1.00 per unit. • With a 5% inflation, these goods and services will cost $1.05. • Thus, $10,500 expected in the savings account at the end of the year will buy you only 10,000 units (10,500/1.05) at the end of the year. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-122 Step 1: Picture the Problem (cont.) Year 0 Year 1 $10,000.00 $10,500.00 Price Index (5% inflation) $1.00 $1.05 Purchasing Power (units) 10,000.00 10,000.00 Savings Account Balance Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-123 Step 2: Decide on a Solution Strategy • We can estimate the real rate of interest by using equation 9-4b. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-124 Step 3: Solve • rreal = {(1+.05) ÷ (1+.05)} – 1 = 0% Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-125 Step 4: Analyze • Here the nominal rate of interest is equal to the expected rate of inflation. Therefore, the real rate of return is equal to zero i.e. there is no increase in purchasing power from investing the savings at 5%. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-126 Checkpoint 9.6 Solving for the Nominal Rate of Interest After considering a number of investment opportunities, you have decided that you should be able to earn a real return of 2% on your $10,000 in savings over the coming year. If the expected rate of inflation is expected to be 3.5% over the coming year, what nominal rate of return must you anticipate in order to earn the 2% real rate of return? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-127 Checkpoint 9.6 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-128 Checkpoint 9.6 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-129 Checkpoint 9.6: Check Yourself If you anticipate that the rate of inflation will now be 4% next year, holding all else the same, what rate of return will you need to earn on your savings in order to achieve a 2% increase in purchasing power? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-130 Step 1: Picture the Problem • Let us assume that the prices of goods and services today is $1.00 per unit. • If the expected rate of inflation is 4% and you want to be able to purchase 2% more, you will need to earn a nominal rate of interest on your savings that will allow you to buy 10,200 units at $1.04 each. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-131 Step 1: Picture the Problem (cont.) Year 0 Year 1 $10,000.00 $10,608 Price Index (5% inflation) $1.00 $1.04 Purchasing Power (units) 10,000.00 10,200.00 Savings Account Balance Real rate (% increase in purchasing power) 2% Interest rate of 6.08% solved in step 3 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-132 Step 2: Decide on a Solution Strategy • Here we know the real rate of interest and the expected rate of inflation. • We can use the Fisher model found in equation 9-4a to determine the nominal rate of interest. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-133 Step 3: Solve • rnominal =.02 + .04 + (.02 × .04) = .0608 or 6.08% Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-134 Step 4: Analyze • In order to achieve a 2% increase in purchasing power in the face of a 4% rate of inflation, you must earn a 6.08% rate on your savings. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-135 Default Premium • In addition to accounting for the time value of money and inflation, the interest rate that a firm’s bonds pay must also offer a default premium i.e. risk that the issuer will fail to repay interest and principal in a timely manner. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-136 Maturity Premium – The Term Structure of Interest Rates • Long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes. • Maturity premium is the compensation that investors demand for bearing interest rate risk on long-term bonds. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-137 Maturity Premium – The Term Structure of Interest Rates (cont.) • The relationship between interest rates and time to maturity with risk held constant is known as the term structure of interest rates or the yield curve. • Figure 9-3 illustrates a hypothetical yield curve of US Treasury Bonds. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-138 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-139 Shifts in the Yield Curve • The term structure of interest rates changes over time as expectations regarding each of the three factors that underlie interest rates change. • Figure 9-4 shows the yield curve one day before 911 attack and again two weeks later. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-140 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-141 Shifts in the Yield Curve (cont.) • We observe a significant shift in the yield curve in figure 9-4 for short-term interest rates. • Investors shifted their funds to the safety of Treasury securities, pushing up the prices and bringing down the yields. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-142 Shifts in the Yield Curve (cont.) • The yield curve is generally upward sloping but it can assume different shapes i.e. downward sloping or flat. • Figure 9-5 illustrates different shapes of yield curves at different dates. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-143 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-144 Key Terms • • • • • • Amortizing bond Bond rating Bond indenture Call provision Collateral Conversion feature Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-145 Key Terms (cont.) • • • • • • • Convertible bond Corporate bond Coupon interest rate Credit spread Current yield Debenture Default premium Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-146 Key Terms (cont.) • • • • • • • Discount bond Eurobonds Fisher effect Fixed rate loan Floating rate bonds Floating rate Inflation premium Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-147 Key Terms (cont.) • • • • • • • Interest rate risk Junk (high-yield) bonds LIBOR Maturity premium Mortgage bonds Nominal (or quoted) rate of interest Non-amortizing bond Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-148 Key Terms (cont.) • • • • • • • Par or face value of a bond Private market transaction Premium bond Real rate of interest Recovery rate Secured debt Spread to Treasury Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-149 Key Terms (cont.) • • • • • • • Subordinated debentures Term structure of interest rates Transaction loans Unsubordinated debentures Yield curve Yield to maturity Zero coupon bond Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-150