Energy, Environment and Economy Course Coordinators: Pawel Keblinski, MSE Lois Peters, Lally Course Website: http://homepages.rpi.edu/~keblip/ENERGYECONOMY/ Course Objectives 1. To introduce the complexity of the energy issue with its interdependencies between physical limits, market responses, environmental impacts, policy and law. 2. To develop project, research proposal, writing skills techniques for R&D and business related applications. Course Structure and Grading 1. A series of lecture sessions by academics, industry and government representatives. 2. Energy related team project: 70% of the grade 3. 4. Project presentation 30% Written document 40% “Concept” exam: 15% of the grade Discussion participation: 15% of the grade. Important Concepts I Wasn’t Taught in Business School By Nate Hagens Economic 'laws' were created during and based on a non-repeatable period of human history Energy is almost everything Cheap energy, not technology, has been the main driver of wealth and productivity The economy is a subset of the environment, not vice versa Important Concepts I Wasn’t Taught in Business School Energy is special, is non-substitutable in the production function, and has an upward sloping long term cost curve Energy has costs in energy terms, which can differ significantly than dollar signals Money/financial instruments are just markers for real capital Our money is created by commercial banks out of thin air. Energy Consumption by Source (USA) EIA – Energy Information Agency (US government agency) Age of wood Age of coal Age of hydrocarbons Energy is Everything as far as Macroeconomics is Concerned Economic growth and energy consumption growth are strongly correlated Germany vs. China Germany appears to decouple economy and energy growth But it is likely that it simply shifts energy intensive GDP to China What if We Cannot Decouple Energy and GDP Growth? We are at the peak of the fossil fuel mountain Renewables are our hope to stay on the top or for a gentle decent Limits of Growth (1972 Book) G. M. Turnner, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 18, pp 397 (2008) “30 years of historical data compare favorably with key features of a business-asusual scenario called the “standard run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century. The data do not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies. We must leave oil before it leaves us" Fatih Birol, Chief Economist EIA, 2008 Global Energy Consumption Solar and wind are still insignificant Global Electricity IEA 2013 Key Statistics Coal is #1, oil is out, natural gas is in, other than hydro, renewables still small. Energy Past, Presence, and Future Economist, February 10th 2001 Past is true – future is questionable, H is not an energy source but an energy carrier The Biggest Push for Renewable Energy Germany In May 2014, during a sunny Sunday 74% of electricity was generated by renewable at the peak consumption time Summer in Germany is good for solar and bad for conventional electricity generation In the USA renewable are a lesser factor but utility companies already push to limit the ability to sell back to grid electricity generated by solar panels Renewable Energy Has Problems Vladimir Putin effect Coal is still a king in Germany (hopefully not for long) The Central Problem - Intermittence On daily basis fluctuations are huge – a critical problem if renewables are ever going to take the dominant position On monthly basis solar and wind complement each other and limit fluctuations to about factor of 2 Need for energy storage But Fossil Fuels also Have a Problem: Peak Oil The rate of resource extraction increases, peaks, and declines, assuming finite amount of resource. M. King Hubbard predicted in 1950 that US production will peak ~ 1970 – he was ridiculed, but he was right Alaska Shale oil Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) Fossil fuels were great, but are getting worse, as extraction requires more energy EROEI Usable Energy Energy Expended Wind and solar are OK Biofuels are scam (think Iowa) When EROEI = 1, the game is over, no matter what is the price. Actually, EROEI has to be > 3 run things (food + shelter, but not much more) Net Energy We will leave a lot of fossil fuels in the ground, once is takes too much energy to get them out, and perhaps, much sooner, if we are smart. What We Need – How We Can Get It From solar FAQs by Jeff Tsao, Nate Lewis, and George Crabtree (Sandia NL) Total World Power (all energy, 2013) ~ 15 Terra Watts (TW) Solar flux near Earth - 1.37 kW/m2 is captured by πR2 area of the Earth shadow, and averaged over Earth surface area = 4πR2. Furthermore, about 50% of the flux is scattered or adsorbed before reaching Earth, thus effectively the flux per surface area is 174.7 W/m2. The associated total power is P = 174.7 W/m2 x 4πR2 = 89,300 TW. This theoretical potential translates into ½ hour of sun providing 1 year energy use. Extractable potential is about 60,000 TW due to theoretical (thermodynamic) limits on the energy conversion. Technical potential is about 5,000 TW due to current technological limits (e.g., impracticality of over the ocean energy collection). What We are Currently Getting Total World power (all energy, 2013) ~ 15 Terra Watts (TW) Total electric power ~ 2.5 TW Solar capacity (2013) 136 Giga Watts (GW) but is characterized by 10-20% capacity factor proving ~ 20 GW, which is about 0.1% of the total and about 1% of the total electric power Wind capacity (2013) 318 Giga Watts (GW) but is characterized by ~ 20% capacity factor proving ~ 60 GW, which is about 0.3% of the total and about 3% of the total electric power Hydro provides ~ 0.4 TW, which ~ 16% electricity The rest is from fossil fuels Solar: Photosynthesis Efficiency 6H2O + 6CO2 + energy → C6H12O6 + 6O2 100% sunlight → non-bioavailable photons waste is 47%, leaving 53% (in the 400–700 nm range) → 30% of photons are lost due to incomplete absorption, leaving 37% (absorbed photon energy) → 24% is lost due to wavelength-mismatch degradation to 700 nm energy, leaving 28.2% (sunlight energy collected by chlorophyl) → 32% efficient conversion of ATP and NADPH to d-glucose, leaving 9% (collected as sugar) → 35–40% of sugar is recycled/consumed by the leaf in dark and photo-respiration, leaving 5.4% net leaf efficiency. Many plants lose much of the remaining energy on growing roots, leaving ~ 0.25% to 0.5% energy stored in the product (corn kernels, potato starch, etc.). Sugar cane is exceptional in several ways, yielding peak storage efficiencies of ~8%. Solar: Ethanol From corn, soybean and switch grasses is takes more fossil fuel energy input than the fuel output. Also it does not limit emissions – in other words is completely insane and alive only due to subsidies. US Gov. (DOE and DOA) claims it is not insane. Currently about ½ of US corn production goes to ethanol, and represents 3% of US liquid fuel consumption (by energy content), so even if it is not insane, it is not a solution. From sugar cane it makes sense, yields several times more energy and 60% life cycle reduction of emission (US EPA classifies sugar cane ethanol as advanced biofuel). Brazil is the biggest player with ~20% of liquid fuel for transport coming from ethanol. However, it will not work in most places, and even in Brazil it is a partial solution. Solar: Photovoltaics Generate electric power by converting sunlight directly into electricity Photons (light) excite electrons from the valence to the conduction band and can diffuse to the junction with other material leading to voltage. In related, photoelectric effect, excited electrons are ejected to vacuum. Typical efficiency ~ 15%, can be as high as 40%, which is ~ 100 times better than ethanol. Photovoltaics: Efficiency Advances Photovoltaics: Cost From energy.goc The cost of the module is now smaller than other costs, such as installation, permits, etc. Concentrated Solar Solar to heat, and then heat to electricity by a heat engine. Typical efficiency ~ 30%. This number is a combination of increasing Carnot cycle efficiency with increasing temperature and increasing radiation losses with increasing temperature. Cost ~ 0.1-0.2 $/kWh Can be used with heat storage technologies to generate power overnight What to do about a personal car? Batteries – can we get the energy density required Solar to fuel – hydrogen generation and storage Biomass to fuel – sugar cane – yes, corn - no Different Policy Approaches Germany USA No liquid and gas fuel resources A lot of liquid and gas fuel resources with increasing production including shale gas/oil and ethanol High taxes on liquid fuel Low energy taxes Still use a lot of coal (currently increasing) Coal on decline (and exported to Germany) Phasing out nuclear power Solar picking up at selected states (California: Role of policy) Approaching 30% electric power by renewable energy Wind provides 4% of electricity Climate Change Big questions What will be the main drive for renewable energy • Increasing cost of conventional energy • Peak oil • Decreasing cost of renewable energy • Materials and efficiency • Installation cost, electric grid • Policy associated with climate change/ national security • Increasing taxes on energy or CO2 • Subsidies for renewable What technical/scientific breakthroughs are needed • Energy storage, large scale for utilities and batteries/hydrogen storage for transportation Grid Storage Challenge (web comment) It must be incredibly cheap. It must be efficient. It must be extremely long-lived. It must be reliable. It must have enormous scalability in both charging and discharge power to many many megawatts. It must have enormous capacity in the hundreds of MW-hrs to GW-hrs range. It must be safe. One, two, maybe three of these. But the entire list? Exceedingly difficult. Not something to realistically plan a wind/solar based power grid on, to be sure. But it would change everything, if it happens. I believe someone said in the last century that "What America needed was a good five cent cigar." That never happened. Storage: DOE Areas of Interest Battery (electricity) Compressed air battery Compressed air energy storage Cryogenic energy storage Flywheel energy storage Ice storage air conditioning Molten salt Power to gas Thermal energy storage Vanadium redox battery Lithium ion battery Superconducting magnetic energy storage Pumped-storage hydroelectricity – only significant player at the moment