Energy, Environment and
Economy
Course Coordinators:
Pawel Keblinski, MSE
Lois Peters, Lally
Course Website:
http://homepages.rpi.edu/~keblip/ENERGYECONOMY/
Course Objectives
1.
To introduce the complexity of the energy issue with its
interdependencies between physical limits, market
responses, environmental impacts, policy and law.
2.
To develop project, research proposal, writing skills
techniques for R&D and business related applications.
Course Structure and Grading
1.
A series of lecture sessions by academics, industry and
government representatives.
2.
Energy related team project: 70% of the grade
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3.
4.
Project presentation 30%
Written document 40%
“Concept” exam: 15% of the grade
Discussion participation: 15% of the grade.
Important Concepts I Wasn’t Taught in Business School
By Nate Hagens
 Economic 'laws' were created during
and based on a non-repeatable period
of human history
 Energy is almost everything
 Cheap energy, not technology, has
been the main driver of wealth and
productivity
 The economy is a subset of the
environment, not vice versa
Important Concepts I Wasn’t Taught in Business School
 Energy is special, is non-substitutable in the
production function, and has an upward
sloping long term cost curve
 Energy has costs in energy terms, which can
differ significantly than dollar signals
 Money/financial instruments are just
markers for real capital
 Our money is created by commercial banks
out of thin air.
Energy Consumption by Source (USA)
EIA – Energy Information Agency (US government agency)
Age of wood
Age of coal
Age of
hydrocarbons
Energy is Everything as far as
Macroeconomics is Concerned
Economic growth and energy consumption growth are strongly correlated
Germany vs. China
Germany appears to decouple
economy and energy growth
But it is likely that it simply shifts
energy intensive GDP to China
What if We Cannot Decouple Energy and
GDP Growth?
We are at the peak of the fossil fuel mountain
Renewables are our hope to stay on the top or for a gentle decent
Limits of Growth (1972 Book)
G. M. Turnner, Global Environmental
Change, Vol. 18, pp 397 (2008)
“30 years of historical data compare
favorably with key features of a business-asusual scenario called the “standard run”
scenario, which results in collapse of the
global system midway through the 21st
century. The data do not compare well with
other scenarios involving comprehensive
use of technology or stabilizing behaviour
and policies.
We must leave oil before it leaves us"
Fatih Birol, Chief Economist EIA, 2008
Global Energy Consumption
Solar and wind are still insignificant
Global Electricity
IEA 2013 Key Statistics
Coal is #1, oil is out, natural gas is in, other than hydro, renewables still small.
Energy Past, Presence, and Future
Economist, February 10th 2001
Past is true – future is questionable, H is not an energy source but an energy
carrier
The Biggest Push for Renewable Energy Germany
In May 2014, during a sunny Sunday 74% of electricity
was generated by renewable at the peak consumption
time
Summer in Germany is good for solar and bad for
conventional electricity generation
In the USA renewable are a lesser factor but
utility companies already push to limit the ability
to sell back to grid electricity generated by solar
panels
Renewable Energy Has Problems
Vladimir Putin effect
Coal is still a king in Germany (hopefully not for long)
The Central Problem - Intermittence
On daily basis fluctuations are
huge – a critical problem if
renewables are ever going to take
the dominant position
On monthly basis solar and wind
complement each other and limit
fluctuations to about factor of 2
Need for energy storage
But Fossil Fuels also Have a Problem: Peak Oil
The rate of resource extraction increases,
peaks, and declines, assuming finite
amount of resource.
M. King Hubbard predicted in 1950
that US production will peak ~
1970 – he was ridiculed, but he
was right
Alaska
Shale oil
Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)
Fossil fuels were great, but
are getting worse, as
extraction requires more
energy
EROEI 
Usable Energy
Energy Expended
Wind and solar are OK
Biofuels are scam (think
Iowa)
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When EROEI = 1, the game is over, no matter what is the price. Actually, EROEI has to
be > 3 run things (food + shelter, but not much more)
Net Energy
We will leave a lot of fossil fuels in the ground, once is takes too much energy to
get them out, and perhaps, much sooner, if we are smart.
What We Need – How We Can Get It
From solar FAQs by Jeff Tsao, Nate Lewis, and George Crabtree (Sandia NL)
Total World Power (all energy, 2013) ~ 15 Terra Watts (TW)
Solar flux near Earth - 1.37 kW/m2 is captured by πR2 area of the Earth shadow,
and averaged over Earth surface area = 4πR2. Furthermore, about 50% of the
flux is scattered or adsorbed before reaching Earth, thus effectively the flux per
surface area is
174.7 W/m2.
The associated total power is P = 174.7 W/m2 x 4πR2 = 89,300 TW.
This theoretical potential translates into ½ hour of sun providing 1 year energy
use.
Extractable potential is about 60,000 TW due to theoretical (thermodynamic)
limits on the energy conversion.
Technical potential is about 5,000 TW due to current technological limits (e.g.,
impracticality of over the ocean energy collection).
What We are Currently Getting
Total World power (all energy, 2013) ~ 15 Terra Watts (TW)
Total electric power ~ 2.5 TW
Solar capacity (2013) 136 Giga Watts (GW) but is characterized by 10-20%
capacity factor proving ~ 20 GW, which is about 0.1% of the total and about
1% of the total electric power
Wind capacity (2013) 318 Giga Watts (GW) but is characterized by ~ 20%
capacity factor proving ~ 60 GW, which is about 0.3% of the total and about
3% of the total electric power
Hydro provides ~ 0.4 TW, which ~ 16% electricity
The rest is from fossil fuels
Solar: Photosynthesis Efficiency
6H2O + 6CO2 + energy → C6H12O6 + 6O2
 100% sunlight → non-bioavailable photons waste is 47%, leaving
 53% (in the 400–700 nm range) → 30% of photons are lost due to incomplete
absorption, leaving
 37% (absorbed photon energy) → 24% is lost due to wavelength-mismatch
degradation to 700 nm energy, leaving
 28.2% (sunlight energy collected by chlorophyl) → 32% efficient conversion of ATP
and NADPH to d-glucose, leaving
 9% (collected as sugar) → 35–40% of sugar is recycled/consumed by the leaf in dark
and photo-respiration, leaving
 5.4% net leaf efficiency. Many plants lose much of the remaining energy on growing
roots, leaving
~ 0.25% to 0.5% energy stored in the product (corn kernels, potato starch, etc.).
 Sugar cane is exceptional in several ways, yielding peak storage efficiencies of ~8%.
Solar: Ethanol
From corn, soybean and switch grasses is takes more fossil fuel energy input than
the fuel output. Also it does not limit emissions – in other words is completely
insane and alive only due to subsidies.
US Gov. (DOE and DOA) claims it is not insane.
Currently about ½ of US corn production goes to ethanol, and represents 3% of US
liquid fuel consumption (by energy content), so even if it is not insane, it is not a
solution.
From sugar cane it makes sense, yields several times more energy and 60% life
cycle reduction of emission (US EPA classifies sugar cane ethanol as advanced
biofuel). Brazil is the biggest player with ~20% of liquid fuel for transport coming
from ethanol. However, it will not work in most places, and even in Brazil it is a
partial solution.
Solar: Photovoltaics
 Generate electric power by converting sunlight directly into
electricity
 Photons (light) excite electrons from the valence to the
conduction band and can diffuse to the junction with other
material leading to voltage. In related, photoelectric effect,
excited electrons are ejected to vacuum.
 Typical efficiency ~ 15%, can be as high as 40%, which is ~
100 times better than ethanol.
Photovoltaics: Efficiency Advances
Photovoltaics: Cost
From energy.goc
The cost of the module is now smaller than other costs, such as installation, permits,
etc.
Concentrated Solar
 Solar to heat, and then heat to electricity by a heat engine.
 Typical efficiency ~ 30%. This number is a combination of
increasing Carnot cycle efficiency with increasing temperature
and increasing radiation losses with increasing temperature.
 Cost ~ 0.1-0.2 $/kWh
 Can be used with heat storage technologies to generate
power overnight
What to do about a personal car?
 Batteries – can we get the energy density required
 Solar to fuel – hydrogen generation and storage
 Biomass to fuel – sugar cane – yes, corn - no
Different Policy Approaches
Germany
USA
 No liquid and gas fuel resources
 A lot of liquid and gas fuel resources
with increasing production including
shale gas/oil and ethanol
 High taxes on liquid fuel
Low energy taxes
 Still use a lot of coal (currently
increasing)
 Coal on decline (and exported to
Germany)
 Phasing out nuclear power
 Solar picking up at selected states
(California: Role of policy)
 Approaching 30% electric power by
renewable energy
 Wind provides 4% of electricity
Climate Change
Big questions
 What will be the main drive for renewable energy
• Increasing cost of conventional energy
• Peak oil
• Decreasing cost of renewable energy
• Materials and efficiency
• Installation cost, electric grid
• Policy associated with climate change/ national security
• Increasing taxes on energy or CO2
• Subsidies for renewable
 What technical/scientific breakthroughs are needed
• Energy storage, large scale for utilities and batteries/hydrogen storage
for transportation
Grid Storage Challenge (web comment)
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It must be incredibly cheap.
It must be efficient.
It must be extremely long-lived.
It must be reliable.
It must have enormous scalability in both charging and discharge power to
many many megawatts.
It must have enormous capacity in the hundreds of MW-hrs to GW-hrs range.
It must be safe.
One, two, maybe three of these. But the entire list? Exceedingly difficult. Not
something to realistically plan a wind/solar based power grid on, to be sure.
But it would change everything, if it happens.
I believe someone said in the last century that "What America needed was a
good five cent cigar." That never happened.
Storage: DOE Areas of Interest
Battery (electricity)
Compressed air battery
Compressed air energy storage
Cryogenic energy storage
Flywheel energy storage
Ice storage air conditioning
Molten salt
Power to gas
Thermal energy storage
Vanadium redox battery
Lithium ion battery
Superconducting magnetic energy storage
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity – only significant player at the moment