Finding a Path Forward Through Political
and Fiscal Challenges in the States
Michael Caudell-Feagan, Vice President, Government Performance
April 21, 2015
“TELL THE TRUTH & TRUST THE PEOPLE”
Our Mission
• Improving public policy
• Informing the public
• Invigorating civic life
Today’s Priorities
• Democracy
• Religion
• Arts and culture
• Healthcare
• Environment
• State policy
• Consumer protection
• Public opinion and demographics
ENVIRONMENT
Wilderness Protection
• United States
• Canada
• Australia
Marine Conservation
• Global Ocean Legacy
• Illegal fishing and overfishing
• Key species: shark, tuna,
forage fish
HEALTH
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Antibiotic resistance
Biomedical science
End of life care
Health Impact Assessments
Patient care
Safe food and drugs
School nutrition
FAMILY ECONOMIC SECURITY
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Economic mobility
Financial products
• Small dollar loans
• Transaction accounts
(checking, mobile,
prepaid cards, savings)
Retirement savings
Short term savings
STATE POLICY
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Corrections and sentencing
Dental health
Economic development
Election administration
Fiscal federalism
Home visiting
Immigration and the states
Pew-MacArthur Results First
Initiative (cost benefit analysis)
Public pensions
Rainy day funds
State budget policy
State health care spending
Tax incentives
WHERE SHOULD WE INVEST?
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Problem of sufficient scale
with clear need for action
Solid evidence about the
cause of the problem and
solutions
Willingness by influential
constituencies to act
A way for Pew to add unique
value
Reasonable odds for tangible
progress
Identify the Problem
1 in 100 Behind Bars
1 in 31 Under Correctional Control
1925
2008
Identify the Problem
1 in 13 State Dollars
$19
Billion
$52
Billion
1987
2008
Identify the Problem
1
IN
2.3
offenders
returns to prison
within 3 years
ALABAMA’S CORRECTIONAL SYSTEM
The state incarceration rate is the nation’s fourth highest
Probation and parole caseloads average close to 200
cases per officer
Alabama’s prisons are operating at 195 percent of
capacity - 26,029 people in a system designed to hold
13,318
To reduce overcrowding, Alabama would need to spend
roughly $420 million in construction and $93 million in
annual operating costs
Specific Strategies
Strategic Planning & Development
Identify
the
problem
Undertake
Scoping
Conduct
Power
Analysis
Identify
Points of
Leverage
Identify
Critical
Pathway
Specific
Strategies
(Comms,
Political,
Markets,
etc)
Win &
Implement
Scoping & Power Analysis
Where are my strategic options?
Internal conditions
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
External conditions
Scoping & Power Analysis
More supportive
Less
powerful
More
powerful
Less supportive
Identify Points of Leverage
Key Questions to Understand the Dynamics & Politics
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Identify
the
problem
Political viability?
Is there opposition?
Is there support?
Timing?
What mechanisms exist for reform?
Does location matter?
How can you implement?
Undertake
Scoping
Conduct
Power
Analysis
Identify
Points of
Leverage
Identify
Critical
Pathway
Specific
Strategies
Win &
Implement
15
Identify a Critical Pathway
Implement a targeted
legislative and
communications strategy
Draft a
comprehensive bill
Adopt a data
driven problem
statement
Identify the cost
of doing nothing
Create a common table
where consensus can be
built around reforms
Identify
performance
indicators
Create an
oversight body
Publicize
success and
give credit
Continue to
monitor
and build
the stage for
the next set
of reforms
Specific Strategies
Texas headlines before 2006
“Tough-on-crime president wanted”
Austin American-Statesmen – February 1992
“Clinton talks tough on crime”
The Dallas Morning News – July 1992
“State is getting tough on criminals”
The Dallas Morning News – January 1994
“Crime bill can’t back up tough talk”
Austin American-Statesmen – February 1994
“Texas must continue being tough on
crime”
The Dallas Morning News – March 1995
and after…
“Targeting human and other costs of
recidivism”
The Dallas Morning News – August 2007
“A focus on saving attained prison reform”
The Fort Worth Star-Telegram – March 2008
“Smart use of time conditions make more
sense for certain crimes”
The Dallas Morning News – March 2008
“Tough on crime? Check. Smart on crime?
Not so much.”
Austin American Statesmen – January 2010
Specific Strategies
Specific Strategies
As advocates committed to a fair and effective criminal justice system,
we applaud Gov. Phil Bryant for signing House Bill 585 into law…
House Bill 585 is a clear departure from the reactionary criminal
justice policy-making of the past.
Jody E. Owens II is the managing attorney and director of the Mississippi office of the
Southern Poverty Law Center. Jennifer A. Riley-Collins is executive director of the
ACLU of Mississippi. Derrick Johnson is president of the Mississippi NAACP.
Specific Strategies
Our Christian faith tells us the criminal justice system must be anchored
in principles supported by the bible and rooted in history. [H.B. 585]
would restore victims, justly punish criminals and provide
opportunities for redemption.
Voters Support Alternatives to Prison
Total
Agree
Strongly
Agree
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
49%
77%
57%
67%
85%
91%
PROJECTED RESULTS IN ALABAMA
100 additional
probation and
parole officers
3,000 people newly
eligible for
supervision
Reduce prison
overcrowding by
4,513 people
$26 million
reinvested in
supervision and
behavioral health
treatment
Avert $407 million
in construction and
operations costs
REDUCED PRISON OVERCROWDING
30,000
Status Quo
195% of Capacity
JR Package
162% of Capacity
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
HEALTH IMPACT
ASSESSMENTS
FACTORS RESPONSIBLE FOR POPULATION HEALTH
Health status is
determined by:
• Genetics: 20-30%
• Healthcare:10%
• Social, environmental
conditions, and
behavior:60-70%
THE HEALTH IMPACT PROJECT
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Background: A $22 million collaboration of the Robert
Wood Johnson Foundation, The Pew Charitable Trusts,
and in-state funders, to promote the use of Health Impact
Assessments (HIA).
•
What is an HIA? A structured process that uses scientific
data and stakeholder input to evaluate public health
consequences of proposals and suggests actions that
could be taken to minimize adverse health impacts and
optimize beneficial ones.
COMPLETED AND IN PROGRESS HIAS 2014
HEALTH RANKINGS IN ALABAMA
% in poor or fair health
35
31
30
27
25
23
20
United States
15
Alabama
10
5
0
Wilcox County
Perry County
University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute.
County Health Rankings 2015
Bullock County
TO LEARN MORE
• Explore: Our interactive map of
HIAs: www.healthimpactproject.org.
• Attend: the National HIA Meeting in
Washington, DC in June 2015:
www.nationalhiameeting.com.
• Consider: Is there a policy, program,
or plan that would benefit from an
HIA.
• Contact: Rebecca Morley, Director,
Health Impact Project:
rmorley@pewtrusts.org
THE PEW-MACARTHUR
RESULTS FIRST INITIATIVE
PEW-MACARTHUR RESULTS FIRST
META-ANALYSIS OF FUNCTIONAL FAMILY
THERAPY
Recidivism Rate
80%
60%
RECIDIVISM RATES REDUCED BY 22%
40%
20%
Without FFT (actual baseline)
With FFT
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Follow-up Years
10
11
12
13
14
15
Source: Washington State Institute for Public Policy
COMMUNITY-BASED
FUNCTIONAL FAMILY THERAPY
MAIN SOURCE OF BENEFITS
OUTCOMES FROM PARTICIPATION
Reduced crime
Increased high school graduation
Reduced health care costs
Total Benefits
Cost
Net Present Value
Benefits per Dollar of Cost
$29,340
Lower state & victim costs
$9,530
Increased earnings
$398
Lower public costs
$37,587
$3,333
$34,254
$11.28
COMPARE RETURN ON INVESTMENT OF
PROGRAMS - “CONSUMER REPORTS”
NEW MEXICO
In the 2013-14 budgets, New Mexico used Results First
analyses to identify opportunities for strategic
investments, including:
• $16.5 million for pre-K
• $10 million for the K-3 Plus extended school year
program
• $6 million toward early literacy programs
• $3.3 million to improve the quality of early childhood
programs
• $6.1 million to support home visiting programs
• $4.4 million for a drug treatment program
• $1.5 million for inmate education
• $1.5 million for job training and mental health
programs
ELECTIONS
12.7
MILLION
1.8
MILLION
2.7
MILLION
out-of-date
DECEASED
Registered
In multiple
RECORDS
individuals
STATES
out
of
1 8
AMERICANS MOVED
IN 2012
out
of
YOUNG AMERICANS
MOVED IN 2012
1 5
1.2 MILLION VOTES
WERE LOST DUE TO
REGISTRATION
PROBLEMS IN
2012
ELIGIBLE CITIZENS ARE NOT REGISTERED TO VOTE
51
MILLION
1 IN 4 ELIGIBLE VOTERS
THREE RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Online Voter Registration
2. Automating Registration at Motor
Vehicle Offices and Public Assistance
Agencies
3. The Electronic Registration Information
Center (ERIC)
PRE-K EDUCATION
PRE-K: APPROPRIATIONS
Alabama State Appropriations – In Millions of Dollars
$38.46
$28.46
$15.49
$10.00
$4.33
$5.37
$18.38
$18.38
$18.00
$19.09
Pew’s Pre-K Now Team
Michael Caudell-Feagan, Vice President
mgcf@pewtrusts.org