Electoral Geography:
Gerrymandering,
Voter Turnout,
Historical Results
APHG
2015
Printed in 1812, this political cartoon illustrates the electoral districts
drawn by the Massachusetts legislature to favor the incumbent
Democratic-Republican party candidates of Governor Elbridge Gerry
over the Federalists. The cartoon depicts the bizarre shape of one
district as a salamander, from which the term gerrymander is
derived.
There are two principal strategies behind gerrymandering:
maximizing the effective votes of supporters, and minimizing the
effective votes of opponents.
Forms of Gerrymandering:
1) Packing-is to place as many voters of one type into a single
district to reduce their influence in other districts.
2) Cracking-involves spreading out voters of a particular type
among many districts in order to reduce their representation by
denying them a sufficiently large voting block in any particular
district. The methods are typically combined, creating a few
"forfeit" seats for packed voters of one type in order to secure
even greater representation for voters of another type.
Redrawing the balanced electoral
districts in this example creates a
guaranteed 3-to-1 advantage in
representation for the blue voters as
14 red voters are packed into the
yellow district and the remaining 18
are cracked across the 3 blue
districts.
Gerrymandering is effective because of the wasted
vote effect - by packing opposition voters into districts
they will already win (increasing excess votes for
winners) and by cracking the remainder among
districts where they are moved into the minority
(increasing votes for eventual losers), the number of
wasted votes among the opposition can be maximized.
Similarly, with supporters now holding narrow
margins in the unpacked districts, the number of
wasted votes among supporters is minimized.
Reduction in electoral competition, voter turnout
and less descriptive representation
Packed districts become less competitive. Therefore,
voter turnout is reduced as voters feel as though they
have less of a “say-so” in election results. Winners of
elections are often determined by those who
drew/designed the districts.
Incumbent gerrymandering
Carved out with the aid of a computer, this congressional district was the product of
California's incumbent gerrymandering. This is the district of Democrat Grace Flores
Napolitano, who ran unopposed in 2004, obtaining 100 percent of the vote.
Proposed reforms targeting
gerrymandering
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1) Independent, objective commission
determines legislative districts.
2) Cross-party legislative body
3) Straight proportional representation (making
all votes count)
Where is proportional
representation currently in use?
ALGERIA, ANGOLA, ARGENTINA, AUSTRIA, BELGIUM, BENIN,
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, BRAZIL, BULGARIA, BURKINA
FASO, BURUNDI, CAMBODIA, CAPE VERDE, CHILE,
COLOMBIA, COSTA RICA, CYPRUS, CZECH REPUBLIC,
DENMARK, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, EL SALVADOR,
EQUATORIAL GUINEA, ERITREA, ESTONIA, FINLAND, GREECE,
GUINEA-BISSAU, GUYANA, ICELAND, INDONESIA, ISRAEL,
LATVIA, LIBERIA, LIECHTENSTEIN, LUXEMBOURG, MOLDOVA,
REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE, NAMIBIA, NETHERLANDS,
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES, NEW CALEDONIA, NICARAGUA,
NORWAY, PARAGUAY, PERU, POLAND, PORTUGAL, ROMANIA,
SAN MARINO, SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE, SLOVAKIA,
SLOVENIA, SOUTH AFRICA, SPAIN, SRI LANKA, SURINAME,
SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND, SERBIA, TURKEY, URUGUAY.
Voter Turnout
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After increasing for many decades, there
has been a trend of decreasing voter
turnout in most established democracies
since the 1960s. This issue has been much
studied, but scholars are divided on what
has caused it, with a wide array of
economic, demographic, cultural,
technological, and institutional factors
proposed as the cause of this decline.
Voters lining up outside a Baghdad polling
station during the 2005 Iraqi election. Voter
turnout was surprisingly high despite widespread
concerns of violent attacks on polling places.
Voter Turnout
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There can also be regional differences in voter
turnout. One issue that arises in continentspanning nations, such as Canada, the United
States and Russia, is that of time zones. For
example, for voters in the western part of the
United States, national elections have often been
essentially decided well before polls close in their
region. This potentially depresses turnout on the
Pacific coast. Canada has partially resolved this
problem by banning the broadcasting of election
results in any region where the polls have not yet
closed.
Voter Turnout – Cultural Factors
Wealth and literacy have some effect on turnout, but are not reliable
measures. Countries such as Angola and Ethiopia have long had high
turnouts, but so have the wealthy states of Europe. The United Nations
Human Development Index shows some correlation between higher
standards of living and higher turnout. The age of a democracy is also an
important factor. Elections require considerable involvement by the
population, and it takes some time to develop the cultural habit of
voting, and the associated understanding of and confidence in the
electoral process. This factor may explain the lower turnouts in the
newer democracies of Eastern Europe and Latin America. Much of the
impetus to vote comes from a sense of civic duty, which takes time and
certain social conditions to develop. G. Bingham Powell lists four
major attitudes that have a strongly positive effect on voter
turnout, attitudes that can take decades to develop:
•trust in government
•degree of partisanship among the population
•interest in politics
•belief in the efficacy of voting
Voter Turnout
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Demographics also have an effect.
• Older people tend to vote more than youths
(Italy)
• Mobile populations tend to vote more
• Lower marriage rates have less turn out.
• In countries that are highly multicultural and
multilingual, it can be difficult for national
election campaigns to engage all sectors of the
population.
Compulsory Voting - Australia
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Australians have been required to vote in federal elections since
1924. Concerned that voter turnout had dipped below 60 percent,
parliament enacted mandatory voting after only 90 minutes of
debate, and it's gone largely unchallenged ever since. Polls
regularly show 70 percent to 80 percent of Australians support
mandatory voting.
Lisa Hill, a research fellow at the University of Adelaide, explains it
this way: "We're quite happy with some forms of coercion that others
may not be happy with."
Compulsory Voting
Compulsory Voting
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Actually, the voting part of "mandatory voting" is a
misnomer. All Australian citizens over the age of 18 must
register and show up at a polling station, but they need not
actually vote. They can deface their ballot or write in
Skippy the Bush Kangaroo (Australia's version of Lassie)—
or do nothing at all.
What happens if you don't show up on Election Day? You'll
receive a fairly polite form letter. At this point, you can
settle the matter by paying a $15 fine or offering any
number of excuses, including illness (no note from your
doctor required), travel, religious objections, or just plain
forgetfulness. For most people, the matter ends here. In
most elections, about a half-million registered voters don't
come to the polls. Ninety-five percent of them offer a valid
excuse, and the matter ends there. Five percent pay a fine.
Compulsory Voting
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A few hundred cases each election actually end up in court.
Those who refuse to pay the fine or offer a plausible excuse
face escalating threats, similar to the ones you receive from
American Express when your balance is past due. The fine
jumps to $37 and, in extreme cases, a brief prison
sentence is imposed. But the Australian government clearly
doesn't want to imprison a lot of its citizens for not voting.
I've been able to find only a few cases of Aussies going to
jail over this in the past few decades—all conscientious
objectors courting arrest. A significant percentage of
Australians—about 15 percent of them—don't bother to
register at all. The government doesn't go after these
people, reserving fines and prosecutions only for those who
register and don't show up on Election Day. (Australia's 80plus percent registration rate is very high compared to
other democracies.)
Australia: Arguments used in
favor of compulsory voting:
• Voting is a civic duty comparable to other
duties citizens perform (e.g. taxation,
compulsory education, or jury duty).
• Parliament reflects more accurately the "will of
the electorate."
• Governments must consider the total
electorate in policy formulation and
management.
• Candidates can concentrate their campaigning
energies on issues rather than encouraging
voters to attend the poll.
• The voter isn’t actually compelled to vote for
anyone because voting is by secret ballot.
Australia: Arguments used
against compulsory voting:
• It is undemocratic to force people to vote - an
infringement of liberty.
• The "ignorant" and those with little interest in politics
are forced to the polls.
• It may increase the number of "donkey votes" (bad
votes that don't get counted).
• It may increase the number of informal votes (ballot
papers which are not marked according to the rules for
voting).
• It increases the number of safe, single-member
electorates - political parties then concentrate on the
more marginal electorates.
• Resources must be allocated to determine whether those
who failed to vote have "valid and sufficient" reasons.
Examples of Bushmanders!
Bullwinkle • (New York's 12th; Hispanic majority)
Pair of Ear Muffs • (Illinois's 4th; Hispanic majority)
Mark of Zorro • (Louisiana's 4th; black majority)
Satire
Man peers under locked ballot box
Date: 2005-03-31 Artist: Dale Cummings
Post-election America is red, white, black and blue
Date: 2004-11-03 Artist: JD Crowe
Bush vs. Gore 2000
In this map and the following series of maps, the color Blue represents the
Republicans and the color Red the Democrats.
Bush vs. Gore 2000
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
Florida 2000
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
Florida 2000
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Presidential Candidate; Vice Presidential Candidate; Party
Popular Vote; Electoral Vote
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 2,912,790
48.85% 25 Electoral College Votes
Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic 2,912,253
48.84% 0 Electoral College Votes
Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke Green 97,488 1.63% 0
Patrick Buchanan Ezola Foster Reform 17,484 0.29% 0
Harry Browne Art Olivier Libertarian 16,415 0.28% 0
Other (+) - - 6,680 0.11% 0
Bush vs. Kerry 2004
Bush vs. Kerry 2004
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
Obama vs. Romney 2012