Almost college students, I handily
won the 2008 presidential election.
I want someone to briefly discuss
noteworthy statistics and key
points the textbook shows about
that election.
Obama won by 8.5 million votes; the Electoral
College margin was 365-173—highest winning
percentage for a Democrat since 1964 (Johnson)
Very good. Please continue.
In percentages, Obama gained
13 points among Hispanics
12 points among voters 18-29
7 points among college graduates, people with
higher incomes, and people living in the West
5 points among women and men
Wow! I’m awesome! Please continue.
Geographically, from 2004 Obama added
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana,
Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.
Election coincided with strong gains in
Democratic Party identification, voters registered
as Democrats, and more Democratic identification
among the nation’s fastest growing groups.
Keep going.
Turnout: 131 million people; an increase
of 5 million people over 2004 (up 1%)
Greater numbers of African Americans and
younger Americans
Obama—used Internet and social media to
his advantage
Hey, pretty good job.
Part of political science is
theory, often
demonstrated through
models. Let’s now
discuss the three
theoretical voting models
discussed in the text.
Three Election Models
Prospective (Responsible Party) Voting
a. Voters—interested in & capable of
deciding what government will do
in the future
b. Each party—cohesive & united with
clear policy positions that differ
significantly from the other party’s
c. Winning party, in office—do exactly
what it said it would do
Three Election Models
Prospective (Responsible Party) Voting
d. Potential Problems:
Might increase frequency and intensity of
political conflicts
The party in power can make the policies
it wants, disregarding objections of losing
party (no compromises)
Likely to lead to gridlock
Three Election Models
Electoral Competition Voting Model
(Median Voter Model)
a. Unified parties take most popular
positions in competing for votes
b. Take positions that appeal to median
voter—midpoint of political spectrum
c. Winning party enacts policies most
voters want—democracy via competition
Three Election Models
d. Potential problems
Conditions to work perfectly not likely to
be met in the real world
Parties must be unified and take stands
on issues for pure and direct voteseeking reasons
Parties must keep their promises
Three Election Models
The Retrospective Model (Reward/Punishment)
a. Voters judge how well “The Ins” have
done and decide if they want them to
continue in office
b. Voters are purely retrospective in vision
and vote to reward or punish “The Ins”
c. Very simplistic; requires little of voters
Three Election Models
The Retrospective Model (Reward/Punishment)
d. Potential Problems
Gets rid of bad leaders only after disasters
happen, without guaranteeing that the
next leaders will be any better
It relies on politicians anticipating the
effects of future policies (prescience)
The Unique Nature of U. S. Elections
More than any other democratic country
Separate and independent of one another
Inconsistent Election Procedures and vote
counting
Fill fixed terms
Fixed dates
First past the post (plurality vs. majority)
Students, I am Dr. Edward S.
Greenberg of the University of
Colorado, one of your textbook’s
authors. Ben Page and I assert
that the Electoral College ensures
that we choose our president
more or less directly? How?
Almost every state: winner-take-all; therefore
the electors’ actions are usually controlled by
the popular vote
I’m not scowling for no reason.
My tightie whities are too tightie.
Bully!!! I’m Theodore
Roosevelt. To be elected, one
must first be nominated.
People are nominated five
different ways.
Self-announcement—most often
used at the local level (city
council, school board, etc.)
Caucus—mostly used in the past; though in
some states, like Iowa, caucuses are used
to nominate candidates for president.
Convention—used in some states,
but primarily used by the major
parties to formally nominate
presidential and vice-presidential
candidates, who are actually
chosen during primary elections
and caucuses in the states beforehand.
Petition—mostly used in special elections,
such as how Californians decided
to recall Governor Gray Davis.
Primary election—the most common
way for candidates to gain their
party’s nomination for political
office.
Hello. I’m Woodrow Wilson,
and the people elected me
president in 1912 and 1916.
Nominations for the House and
Senate and state and local
offices occur through direct
primaries in which the winner is
named the party’s nominee for
the general election.
Now remember, primary
elections for president are
not direct primaries; again,
the states have primary
elections at different times,
between February and
June. Then, each party
has a national convention
in which state delegates
cast votes for president
based on their parties’
results in their states’
primaries.
Now let’s discuss the
characteristics of
voters in American
elections.
Since 1912:
50-65 % in presidential elections
40-50% in off-year elections (1/3 Senate, 1/3
governors; all members of the House)
10-20% in primaries and minor local elections
Only about 25% of the American public are
what political scientists call The Attentive
Public.
Know & understand how government works
Vote regularly
Read editorials and political articles
Watch news shows & informational TV
Know issues and talk politics
On the opposite side, 35% of Americans have
little to no interest in politics
And 40% of Americans are part-time citizens:
vote sometimes, rarely read news stories,
rarely discuss politics
Hmmm. Not good.
OK, so what are some
of the barriers to
American voting,
particularly compared
to voting in European
countries?
Advanced registration requirement—many do not
make the effort (procrastination)
I am Alexis de Tocqueville, a
Frenchman who observed
American politics in the
1830s. Today in Europe,
some countries experience
between 80% and 90%
turnout—or more--in almost
all of their elections. But
remember, the government
often is responsible for
Austria—92%
registration—in Italy and
Belgium—91% Belgium people are required
Germany—86% to vote—and most countries
conduct elections on
Italy—90%
Sundays or holidays.
Students, I am Wisconsin
governor, Scott Walker.
Remember, Wisconsin, and
6 other states, now have
same day registration. Our
turnout is around 73%-similar to European
countries. That statistic
suggests that the prior
registration requirement in
other states may be a major
barrier to voter turnout.
Excuse me. Justina here. As
someone who often gets
confused—I mean, I once got in
the wrong lane for a sprint—I think
we also have to consider that
some Americans don’t vote
because voting choices, like
California initiatives or refereda,
are often confusing and
overwhelming. For that reason,
many often don’t vote.
So true, Justina. But there
are some other reasons,
such as parties don’t do the
best job they can mobilizing
the vote and also the intense
partisanship and incivility in
recent elections have led to
several elections that are not
competitive. In such cases,
some believe their votes do
not count.
I am John F. Kennedy, and
the American people elected
me president in 1960. What
factors determine what
people vote in American
elections?
The more education a person has, the more
likely that person is to vote.
The higher a person’s income, the more
likely that person is to vote.
Those with higher status careers or
occupations are more likely to vote.
Poor, young, less-educated people, AfricanAmericans and Hispanic-Americans tend to
be underrepresented in voting.
African-Americans and whites tend to vote
in equal proportions, with African-Americans
voting more for Democratic candidates.
Hispanic-Americans and Asian Americans
vote much less
The older a person is, the more likely that
person is to vote. (2004: 73.3% of people
65-74; 48.5% of people 18-24); 2008
Women are nowadays voting at a significantly
higher rate than men: 2008, 66% to 62%.
Chart on p. 307
My fellow Americans, I am
Lyndon Johnson and the
American people elected me
as president in 1964. In
addition to low voting
statistics, very few people
participate in the American
political process.
Less than 25% of Americans try
to influence how others vote.
Only 5% of Americans work for a candidate or
donate money to candidates
I am Senator Daniel Inouye
from Hawaii. Every 6 years
since 1962 the people of
Hawaii have elected me to the
United Stated Senate—I am
now, at age 86, the longest
serving member of the Senate.
Because I am also in the
majority party, I am the
President Pro Tempore of the
Senate. Here are some more
facts.
Only 25% of
America’s taxpayers designate $3.00 on their
Federal Income Tax returns to be sent to the
Presidential Campaign Fund.
Students, at what venue
do presidential
nominees become the
official nominees of
their parties?
At their party’s national
convention in the
summer before the
presidential election.
Yes, I know I won in 2008, but where
was my nomination actually
determined?
During the primaries and
caucuses of the winter and
spring
Let’s find out,
Senator.
Mr. President, we Republicans have a
slightly different nominating process
than you Democrats. I wonder if these
young citizens know the difference.
Republicans: winner-take-all (similar to the
Electoral College), meaning the candidate
who wins a state’s election or caucus gets all
of that state’s convention delegates.
Democrats: proportional, with delegates to the
convention distributed in rough proportion to
the vote received by each candidate in a state
primary or caucus. Democrats also have
superdelegates—party luminaries and elected
officials (Members of Congress, state and
local officials) who also have convention votes
and are not limited by election results in their
States.
Regarding the presidency, who have tended to
be the people nominated by major parties?
Middle-aged or elderly
White (until President Obama)
Protestant (except Kennedy and Al Smith)
Males
Extensive formal education
High incomes
Substantial experience as public figures
Early years of the Republic, the “springboard”
was Secretary of State (Jefferson, Madison,
Monroe, J. Quincy Adams)
Since 1900, 5 have been vice-presidents
(T. Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman,
Johnson, Ford*, G. H. W. Bush)
Governors: Wilson, F. Roosevelt, Carter,
Reagan, Clinton, G. Bush
Senators: Harding, Kennedy, Obama
Other: Taft (Secretary of War);
Hoover (Secretary of Commerce),
Eisenhower (General, university president)
Nixon (former VP and senator)
Process: begins 2-3 years prior
Test the waters—small meetings with financial
backers
Surveys to test for name
recognition
Exploratory Committees
Campaign organization
Manager
Pollsters
Fundraisers
Campaign consultants
National & individual state
organizations
Students, what is an invisible
primary?
The relationship between
money-raising and
consideration as a
serious candidate
OK, so, what is the public campaign finance
system and why would candidates, like me, not
want to use it?
Public campaign finance system: the federal
government matches the first $250 from each
individual donor on conditions that candidates
limit preconvention campaign spending to
about $50 million.
Alternative: go it alone raise hard money
contributions from individuals (with limitations)
and PACs (with limitations) and spend what
they wish
Public financing of presidential nominating
campaigns seems to be going by the board
1) Costs have gone up much faster than the
amount that candidates who choose public
funding are allowed to spend
2) It is easier now to raise money outside the
public financing system
Students, Mitt Romney here.
Remember, it’s also important
to decide which state primaries
and caucuses to enter, as all of
them are very expensive,
require huge organizational
networks, and, well, as I
learned in South Carolina, any
loss is damaging.
Good afternoon, students. I am
Richard M. Nixon, and the
people elected me president in
1968 and 1972. Because of
federalism, each state selects
the type of primary election it
will hold.
The types of primary are: closed
primary, open primary, runoff
primary and nonpartisan primary.
Closed primary: members of a
political party are permitted to
vote only for candidates from their party.
Most states have open primaries: they allow a
registered voter to participate in either the
Republican or Democratic nomination process
but by choosing a party once he or she has
entered the voting booth.
The type of primary helps
determine a candidate’s
strategy. How?
Closed primaries: pitch appeal to the party
base (Nixon Maxim—Ch. 9)
Open primaries: more diverse voters so
candidates must take more moderate
positions on issues (The Ides of March (2011).
Mr. President, it’s Al Gore.
We all know that I lost in the
2000 general election. I
need to tell the students that
the general election is one in
which the voters actually
choose their representatives
and leaders. Since 1845, the
general election is always
held on the first Tuesday
after the first Monday of
November, and for President
it’s in the leap year.
I won the first two primaries
in 2012, giving me early
momentum. Why is early
momentum important?
Early winners get press
attention, financial
contributions, and better
standings in the polls
because they are more visible: media,
money, and increased popular support
The authors of your
text believe the
primary system is
disorganized. Why?
States and parties control the nominating
process and it therefore changes from one
primary election to the next.
Some states: both parties the same day; other
states different dates for different parties.
Different years, the dates change to make
state primaries more relevant
Primary campaigns for Congress
Step 1: raise hundreds of thousands of
dollars—friends, acquaintances,
interest groups
Step 2: build a personal organization
Step 3: Hire campaign managers and
technicians, buy advertising, conduct
polls—key is available money
Primary campaigns for Congress
Main hurdle: gaining visibility
Mentioned by media
Personal contacts
Door-to-door campaigning
Identify likely supporters and court
their favor
The more money spent in the primary
campaign, the greater voter turnout
I am Warren G. Harding and the
American people elected me
president in 1920. In elections,
particularly congressional
elections, incumbents tend to
have advantages. Since 1970,
95% of incumbents reelected.
Advantages of incumbency: name recognition,
franking privileges (free postage), and
political “war chests”—built-up contributions
from people, organizations and Political
Action Committees (PAC)—committees
focusing on particular issues that back
political candidates. Most congressmen who
run for re-election win.
Running for Senate: Big Time Politics
Very expensive (millions of dollars)
Incumbents widely known as are opponents
Running for Senate: Big Time Politics
U. S. Senate (CA) 2010: Carly Fiorina v. Sen. Barbara Boxer
In final campaign reports filed with the Federal Election
Commission a month after Boxer’s victory, the senator reported
raising just over $28 million and spending almost all of it over
the course of the campaign. Fiorina raised $22.6 million and
spent more than $22 million, including a $1-million personal
loan to the campaign that was repaid.
The National Convention
1892-1980—significant affect on who
was nominated
1984-present—showcases only—
decisions made by people in the
caucuses and primary elections
Limited television coverage
Standard rules and rituals
Day 1: speeches
Day 2: committee reports & platform
Day 3: choose V. P. nominee
Day 4: candidate acceptance speeches
As I told you boneheads last
chapter, party platforms are often
huge and vague documents, and
hardly anyone reads them. The
reason why is because anything
specific and short might give
people a reason to vote
AGAINST the party. So people
normally just stay with what the
politicians say and what the
parties have traditionally stood
for.
Running mates: balance the ticket
Biden & Palin
2008
Edwards & Cheney Lieberman & Cheney
2004
2000
Inexperienced Obama needed a seasoned
congressional veteran; McCain wanted to
lure female voters (tend to vote Democratic)
Running mates: balance the ticket
Kennedy selected Johnson
for geographic reasons
(needed South in 1960)
Smythe: Two Decisions,
Many Problems, 1968
1984: Walter Mondale made
a “statement” by selecting
Congresswoman Geraldine
Ferraro of NJ—realized
Reagan difficult to defeat
Running mates: balance the ticket
2000: Dick Cheney—originally from Wyoming
After serving as SecDef, moved to TX
Had to change back to WY because the
Constitution (Ar II, Sec 1) prohibits electors
from voting for more than one person for
pres and VP from their own state.
Value of conventions today
National “coming together” of the party
Build unity
National spotlight
Candidates get the national spotlight
But can be divisive
GOP: 1964 in San Francisco
Democratic: 1968 in Chicago
Presidential primary campaigns end at the
national convention
Autumn campaigns—general election
Labor Day traditional start until 2004
Focus nowadays on swing states
Advanced polling earmarks sure states
Time and money in swing states
3-4 speeches a day
I’m sure you students
remember me. George H. W.
Bush, elected president by the
American people in 1988.
Once a candidate is
nominated—and certainly
before as well—he or she
engages in the campaign for
election.
Campaigns include candidates going door-todoor, campaign workers sending out
literature about candidates and making
phone calls, and people placing posters,
called placards on their property.
Campaigns also include
candidate speeches, large
banners (above), candidate
buttons (below), and
candidate debates (left, 2008).
Campaigns are very
tiring for the
candidates and very
expensive—in 1996,
Bill Clinton & Bob
Dole spent $142 Mil.
Candidates make speeches in 6-9 media
markets each week
Focus on battleground states
New media blitz—brief spot commercials
As some of you may know, I
used technology to help win
the presidency in 2008. How
do presidential campaign
organizations use
technology?
Obama: Twitter, Facebook, MySpace and
other social networking
Sophisticated software allows campaign
organizations to combine surveys, census
track data, and materials from market
research firms to identify base and
persuadable voters and to tailor messages
OK, what kinds of information
to voters get in presidential
campaigns?
Information about
Issues—both similar stands
(Nixon maxim)
Past performance
Personal characteristics (candidate appeal)
I am Andrew Jackson and
the American people elected
me president in 1828 and
1832. One of the reasons I
was elected was because I
had candidate appeal. Let’s
discuss that issue.
Candidate appeal means how a candidate
looks, responds to issues and acts.
For example, in the 1960 election campaign
the candidates, John F. Kennedy and
Richard Nixon held our nation’s first
televised presidential debate. Most experts
said that Nixon knew the issues better, but
Kennedy
“looked more
presidential.”
Kennedy therefore
“won” the debate on
TV and Nixon on
the radio; Kennedy
won the election.
Presidential candidates with appeal:
Eisenhower Reagan
Kennedy
Clinton
Obama
Eisenhower: popular as a general; personal
charm; Reagan: strength and leadership;
Kennedy: youth, exuberance, wit; Clinton:
appealed to youth and looked like Kennedy;
Obama appealed to youth; young & vibrant
Presidential candidates lacking appeal
Carter
Ford
McGovern Dewey
Carter: wishy-washy; Ford: bumbler;
McGovern: too liberal; Dewey: Catholic and
a moustache
Good evening, students. I
am Franklin D. Roosevelt
and the American people
elected me president in
1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944.
I was very specific during
my campaigns about what I
would do. But today, most
politicians are very vague in
what they promise they will
do if elected.
In the 1968 presidential
campaign, I, Richard Nixon,
said that I had a plan to end the
war in Vietnam, but gave no
specifics. I won.
The theory is to not confuse the people with
facts. So politicians, such as Arnold
Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall election,
speak in generalities rather than specifics.
Candidates also focus on emotional
issues—especially people’s money.
1928: Herbert Hoover— “A
chicken in every pot.” Won.
Ronald
Reagan
1932:
1980—
“Are
Franklin
you
better
Roosevelt–
off
today
“All we have than you were 4
to fear is fear years ago?”
itself.”
That is why in the 2008
election I established a
very simple theme:
CHANGE. I knew that
many Americans were
dissatisfied with
President Bush and
wanted change. My
message, therefore was
simple, general, and
focused.
As John and I
found out, money
does talk in
elections.
Obama raised $745 Million to
McCain’s $368 Million
As a man with a hard
body, I want to know what
is hard money. Who can
tell me?
Contributions and spending
that fall under the
jurisdiction of the Federal
Election Commission
How did the U. S. Supreme
Court’s decision in Citizens
United v. Presidential Election
Commission (2010) affect hard
money?
The Court ruled that corporations and unions
may not be limited on what they spend on
advertising in support of or opposition to a
candidate.
So, what are the various
sources of private funding in
general elections?
Individuals—single
largest source
The candidates themselves
Political Action Committees
Political parties
Note: the passage of the Bipartisan Campaign
Reform Act of 2002 (McCain-Feingold) gave
an added boost to PACs by allowing
corporate and labor PACs to accept larger
donations from individual contributors,
contribute more to candidates and parties,
and run issue campaigns up until election days
That’s good. How about public
funding for general elections? I
rejected it in 2008.
Taxpayers: donate $3.00
from tax returns
Government uses such taxpayer contributions
to provide matches for money contributors give
to candidates during primary and general
election campaigns
Candidates must agree to spending limits.
I need one person to explain
527 organizations and another
to explain 501 organizations.
527: from Section 527 of the
Tax Code;
Entities that can use unregulated money to
discuss issues, mobilize voters, and praise or
criticize incumbents or candidates
Restriction: use of radio and TV in the period
immediately preceding an election
Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and MoveOn.org
501: tax-exempt organizations whose main
purpose is to encourage “civic engagement”
Like 527s, must report receipts and expenditures
to IRS, but less frequently than 527s
Unlike 527s, are not obligated to report identities
of contributors
Like 527s there are no limits on how much
money they can collect or spend
Regarding
campaign
financing,
what is the
significance
of our
decision in
Buckley v.
Valeo
(1976)?
Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
First Amendment basis
Individuals and interest groups can spend
whatever amount they want on the issue
and candidate advertising so long as
such efforts are not coordinated with the
candidates’ official campaign organizations
Yes, I know I won big in
2008—got lots of votes.
What are some of the
factors that contribute to
how voters decide for
whom to vote?
•Social characteristics—
various ethnic or
socioeconomic groups tend to vote for
candidates from specific parties
•Party loyalty
•Candidates’ personal characteristics—tended
to favor Republicans in past
•Specific issues
The Electoral College
When Americans vote for a presidential
candidate, they are actually voting for a
slate of electors in their state
Electors: 1 for each U. S. senator and 1 for
each member of the House of Representatives
from their state
The Electoral College
Presidents who have won while losing the
popular vote:
Rutherford B. Hayes (R)
over Samuel Tilden (D)
in 1876
The Electoral College
Presidents who have won while losing the
popular vote:
Benjamin Harrison (R)
over Grover
Cleveland (D) in 1888
The Electoral College
Presidents who have won while losing the
popular vote:
George W. Bush (R)
over Al Gore (D) in 2000
What do you think? Should
we keep, do away with or
change the Electoral
College?