Beijing, November 2007 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY CAPABILITIES Up to 2020 - Coal: 50-61 million tons/annum, (32-40 Mt for power generation) - Crude: 10 – 18 million tons/annum - Natural Gas: 14-16 BCM/annum - Hydropower: 58 - 65 TWh/annum - Uranium Potential: RAR: 113 tons, EAR-I: 16563 tons - Up to 2030 - Coal: ~ 70 - 80 million tones/annum - Crude: ~10 – 18 Million tons/annum - Natural Gas: ~14 – 20 BCM/annum - Hydropower ~75 -83 TWh/annum Renewable Energy 2005 Small/mini Hydro Wind Power Solar Cells Biomass Geothermal Total MW 185.00 0.80 1.15 150.00 0 336.95 GWh 555 na na na 0 ~600 Up to 2020 MW GWh 1000 - 1200 300 - 400 4-6 4,2005,200 310-410 100 1700-2100 Up to 2030 MW GWh 3,500 10,000 MAJOR ENERGY-ECONOMIC INDICATORS ITEMS 1990 2005 GDP (USD/cap.) 114 645 Commercial Energy Consumption (KgOE/cap.) 63 250 Electricity Consumption (KWh/cap.) 93 540 Energy Intensity (KgOE/1000USD95) 312 500 Growth Rate of GDP (%) 7.5 Growth Rate of Energy Consumption (%/year ) 11.2 Growth Rate of Electricity Consumption (%/year ) 14.2 Energy Elasticity 1.5 Electricity Elasticity 1.9 Final Energy demand 70000 Industry A griculture Transport Commerce residence 60000 50000 KTOE 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 11454 15875 25579 39496 52946 65996 532 728 941 1085 1189 1348 Transport 6401 10423 17437 26665 40738 52120 Commerce 2009 3112 5261 7687 10136 12804 319 4390 13088 21748 31927 41518 I ndustry Agriculture residence Renewable Energy 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% Renewable energy 60.0% Total energy 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Renewable energy 41.6% 30.5% 20.4% 15.8% 11.7% 9.4% Total energy 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Primary energy balance 2005 Physical unit 2010 KTOE Physical unit 2015 KTOE Physical unit 2020 KTOE Physical unit 2030 Physical unit KTOE KTOE Primary energy demand 43832 63023 110627 171828 317391 Domestic energy resouce 61145 76238 93780 103994 121792 include: Coal 32,6Mll. Tons 18271 45,42Mll tons 25440 55,28Mll tons 30960 63,36Mll tons 35482 75Mll tons 42000 Crude oil 17,8Mll. Tons 18120 19,86Mll tons 20217 20Mll tons 20360 20,7Mll tons 21073 20Mll tons 20360 Gas 6,89Bll m3 6205 9,62Bll m3 7759 14,19Bll m3 12772 15,6Bll m3 14040 20Bll m3 18000 Hydro 17,49TWh 3762 33,76TWh 7259 58,67TWh 12614 60,08TWh 12919 67,8TWh 14586 1,99TWh 428 4,2TWh 904 9,78TWh 2104 28,1TWh 6042 45,8Mll tons 15134 49Mll tons 16170 55,7Mll tons 18378 63Mll tons 20805 Small hydro Renewable energy Remain (+) Lack(-) 44,8Mll tons 14788 +17313 +13215 -16847 -67929 -195599 Total installed capacity of PPs as of 2005: 11298 MW (In which: IPP, BOT: 2439MW-21.6%) “ 2006:12.221 MW (TPPs): add-on steam turbine of Phu My 2.1 extension, Uong Bi 1 extension, Cao Ngan; HPPs: Se San 3, Se San 3A #1, Srokphumieng#1) Maximal power load 2005: 11/2006: 9255 MW 10187 MW, increased by 932 MW compared to 2005 In MP V in period 2006 – 2008, 6400 MW needed but some projects delayed such as TPPs of Hai Phong, O Mon, Ca Mau (2006), Nhon Trach 1, HPPs of Tuyen Quang #1 (2007), some medium and small HPPs (2006)… 12000 10000 10000 4000 9255 7408 5655 6000 6552 8000 10187 12000 8283 14000 MW 14000 8000 6000 4000 2000 2000 0 0 2001 2002 2003 Thuû ®iÖn NhiÖt ®iÖn(Than,dÇu) 2004 2005 2006 Tua bin khÝ,Diesel vµ kh¸c Pmax TRANSMISSION NETWORK AS OF 2005 3249 km 5272 km 10290 km 6150 MVA 14890 MVA 21100 MVA Rate of rural electrification as of end 2005 -97,04% districts, - 96,6% communes, and - 90,4% rural households accessed to national power grids -Electricity supplied to rural areas in 2005 is 8.07 billion kWh, average growth of 10,1%/year in 2001-2005 Exceeded MP V Equal to 92% of MP V Not reached MP V Đi ện sản xuất (GWh) 60000 thùc tÕ Actual TS§ MP44 50000 MP55 TS§ MP5-Adjust TS§ 5 HC 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year MP 4 MP 5 Adjusted MP5 2000 29971 26000 26594 27041 2001 34031 29201 30603 31137 2002 38469 32795 35179 36410 2003 43246 36833 40329 41273 2004 48384 41367 46412 47138 2005 53834 46459 53438 53462 Actual KH 2005 GROWTH RATE OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND 60000 50000 GWh 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 §Generation iÖn s¶n xuÊt §Sale iÖn th- ¬ng phÈm Growth rate of electricity demand, period 1996 -2000: 14.9% Growth rate of electricity demand, period 2001 -2005: 15.3% 2006 14.3% T&D loss is reduced from 21.7% (1995) to 12.0% (2005); 11.4% (2006) - Period 2006-2010: using engineering forecast method + Review of development of steel, cement, chemistry, garment sectors,… loads of large industrial facilities, concentrated industrial zones. + Aggregated from demand forecasts of 60/64 provincial power development plans (accounting for 96.5% electricity demand of the whole country) + Total electricity demand (in base case) of the provinces is increased by ~17.1%/year - Periods 2011-2015 and 2016-2025: indirect forecast method, using multi-regression method and international comparing method + Simple-E program (transferred from JICA) + Connected with direct forecast from previous step. + Compared to the forecast and average electricity consumption per capita of countries in the region. + Consulted with experts + Upgraded with assessment of results of DSM programs on load-shapes (referred to DSM impact assessment by WB consultants) => reduced Pmax Period 2001 - 2005 (%) 12 Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 6.79 6.89 7.08 7.34 7.79 8.4 Agriculture, forestry and fishery 4.63 2.98 4.06 3.2 3.35 4.1 Industry and construction 10.07 10.39 9.44 10.34 10.3 10.7 Services 5.32 6.1 6.54 6.57 7.5 8.4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 N¨ m Tæng N«ng, L©m & Ng- nghiÖp C«ng nghiÖp vµ X©y dùng DÞch vô SCENARIOS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN PERIOD 2006-2025 2006 2010 2011 2020 2021 - 2025 HIGH (%)/n 8.5 8.5 8.0 BASE (%)/n 7.5 7.2 7.0 Scenario Population (millions) 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 77.64 83.2 87.8 93.0 97.9 101.6 Year Item 2005 GWh % Sale Generation Peak (MW) Consumption per cap. (kWh/cap.annum) 45603 Sale Generation Peak (MW) Consumption per cap. (kWh/cap.annum) Agriculture-Forestry-Fishery 53462 106669 169238 247352 349390 9255 548 28046 1579 40052 2189 55395 2997 45603 18100 1048 Base Case 100 97111 100 164961 100 257260 100 381160 53462 112658 190047 294012 431664 9255 548 19117 1106 High Case 1.26 1272 31495 1774 47607 2629 68440 3703 574 Industry-Construction Commercial-Service 21302 Household-Managerment Others 19831 Sale T&D losses Plant use 45603 Generation Peak (MW) Consumption per cap. (kWh/cap.annum) 2010 2015 2020 2025 GWh % GWh % GWh % GWh % Low Case 100 100 146898 100 216433 100 308511 100 91948 1.26 1672 0.97 47.65 6.28 84958 39.21 5.60 62412 88692 2109 0.79 2658 46.71 4.74 48201 43.49 3.80 39656 100 12.0 2.7 101148 100 172354 10.8 3.0 100 267561 9.6 3.6 100 394388 8.5 4.0 53462 117341 198565 305784 446645 9255 19911 32906 49513 70815 548 1152 1853 2734 3831 2162 1734 6354 5665 100 0.67 49.29 135398 50.60 204149 51.76 6.28 17719 6.62 28750 7.29 10828 36.21 7.24 12485 33.15 123089 31.21 9.06 23643 8.84 35741 100 7.5 4.2 GWh 550000 20% 500000 Base Case 450000 low Case 400000 High Case Base Case Growth 18% 16% 14% 350000 12% 300000 10% 250000 8% 200000 150000 6% 100000 4% 50000 2% 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Electricity production per capita in some countries of APEC (Unit: kWh/capita. annum) Year 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 Australia 6539 9052 9599 10565 12033 Canada 15249 17195 18884 19662 18397 Chile 1054 1402 1972 2676 3203 China 307 547 836 1074 1881 67 212 476 595 552 4847 6748 7670 8454 8850 Malaysia 730 1264 2205 2974 3797 Mexico 916 1373 1562 1954 2178 7121 8936 9607 10271 10526 Philippines 372 424 491 591 681 Korea 977 - 4095 5558 8257 Indonesia Japan New Zealand Russia - - 5816 6048 6649 Singapore 2886 5126 6308 7607 8833 309 795 1366 1580 2033 10062 11258 12713 13447 14215 131 201 338 635 Thailand United States Vietnam - 2. 3. Initial stage: in 2006 electricity production of the whole country is 60.6 billion kWh, average over 710 kWh/person, the lowest in the ASEAN countries Period 2006 – 2010 with favorable conditions for socio-economic development, starting industrialization, rapid power demand increase for production development, infrastructure construction, making base for next period Period after 2010, the energy conservation and efficiency program, DSM measures; electricity pricing measure, shifting structure of electricity use.. Led to significant electricity demand reduction. tû kWh 1400 18% 16% 1200 1200 15% 14% 1000 900 10% 9.40% 600 400 12% 680 800 16% 1 1. 5.80% 430 327.8 8% 5.80% 6% 4% 200 2% 0 0% 2003 2005 2010 Tiêu thụ điện, tỷ kWh 1 2015 2020 Tốc độ tăng trưởng - Hydropower: Technical-economic potential of 11 main basins in Vietnam is ~75:-83 billions kWh (20500MW), in which potential in the North is 51.6%, in the Center 31.9% and in the South 16.5% - Coal: According to the coal sector development strategy for the period 20062015',(MOI, 4/2006): Total coal reserve as of 1/1/2006 is 6.16 billion tons (class A+B+C is 4.99 billion tons). Exploitable reserve is 50-61 million tons/year (2020); 60.5-64.5 million tons/year (2025); Possible coal supply to the power sector: according to the report of Industrial Mining Investment Consulting Company - 2010: 16.3 – 21.9 mill. tons - 2015: 27.4 – 29.4 mill. tons - 2020: 32.7 – 40.4 mill. tons - 2025: over 40 mill. tons - Existing coal price is 20 USD/ton; average price increase is 2%/year: coal price at port is 32 :- 35 US/ton (in 2020); 33 -:37US/ton (in 2025) Fuel gas: According to the PV development strategy: exploitable reserve is 15.6 bill. m3/year (2020); 16.5 bill. m3/year (2025), of which 12-14 bill. m3/year is available for power sector. Nam Con Son natural gas price is 2005: 6.0 bill. m3 ~3,2 USD/mill. BTU, associated 2010: 10.3 bill. m3 gas at Cuu Long field is 2.2 2015: 15 bill. m3 USD/mill.BTU; price escalation is 2020: 15.6 bill. m3 2%/year: 2025: 16.5 bill. m3 South-East continental shelf: about 8 – 9 bill. m3 South-West continental shelf: about 6 – 7 bill. m3, in North: 1-2 bill. m3 1. Existing: about 150MW of cogeneration power plants using biomass (at sugar plants), 0.8 MW of wind power (on Bach Long Vi island) and solar PV power about 1.15 MW 2. Development potential - Small hydropower: ~ 2000MW Geothermal power: potential ~ 200MW Biomass power: 300 -:- 400MW Wind power: 400 -:- 600MW Solar PV power: 4 -:- 6MW Total power from renewable energies: 2700 -:3300MW About 1200MW of renewable energy can be developed in 2015 (equivalent to 3000GWh); 1500 :- 1700MW in 2020 (~5000GWh) and 2400 -:3000MW in 2025 (~6400-7500GWh) - Ensuring reliable electricity supply in each region and whole country at reasonable tariffs. - Priority is given for development of hydropower, especially for the multi-purpose projects - Ensuring reasonable shares and supply safety between coal and gas - Reasonable arrangement of generation resources by load areas, reducing transmission distance - Encouraging renewable power resource development - Promotion of projects for importing electricity from Laos, Cambodia and China - Taking into account the risk of power plant development schedule - Priority given to special projects with commitment of ODA, OCR financing - Encouraging projects under schemes of IPP, BOT,… - Optimization of generation development program based on least costs - Considering effectiveness and constraints of North – South connecting power lines - Advanced calculation tools: WASP III => PDPAT2 => STRATEGIST - Because of delay of some power plants, Government allows special mechanism for fast tract project development, power sector applied many efficient measures for increasing generation resources. - Fast tract power projects: electricity importing from China in the North; Gas turbines in the South in 2007 – 2009, increasing reserve in the South meanwhile short or low reserve in the North in 2007-2009 - To avoid power shortage up to 2010, it needs to control and support projects under investment or construction so that they are not delayed, especially those in the North - It needs mechanism for control of medium and small hydropower projects (about 350 - 400MW) to be put into operation in the period up to 2010 In 2006 -:- 2010 total of 13700MW is anticipated to be put into operation, average 2900MW/year, in 2008 -:- 2010 about 3700 -:- 4300MW/year - Arrangement of power plants development schedule in period 2011 - 2015 to ensure sufficient electricity supply at rate over 99,7%/year, in which speeding up coal fired and gas fired power plants in the South - Establishment of generation mix options with varied input factors subjective (based on operation strategy for 500kV lines, prices of coal, gas...), objective factors (gas supply availability, delay of electricity import,..) - Comparing costs of options by optimization of planning - Selecting option with least cost and highest electricity supply security Electricity production Pmax whole country: Total installed capacity: In which: 112.6 TWh 19117 MW 25879 MW Hydropower ~ 9222MW (35.6%); Oil and gas TPPs: 13241 (31.3%) 190 TWh 31495 MW 42341 MW 13601 (32.1%) ~ 9425MW (36.4%); Coal TPPs: ~ 5975MW (23.1%); 12130 Imported: ~ 820MW ( 3.2%): 2102 (28.6%) ( 5.0%) Renewable power 1267 (4.0%) Maximal system reserve ~ 467MW ( 1.7%) NL t¸ i t¹ o N§ than NhËp khÈu 2% 3% 31.4% 23% Thuû ®iÖn 36% N§ than 25.8% 29% NhËp khÈu NL t¸ i t¹ o Thuû ®iÖn 5% 3% 32% In 2006 - 2010 average 2860MW per year needs to be constructed In 2011 – 2015 average 3300MW per year needs to be constructed KhÝ& dÇu 36% KhÝ& dÇu 31% Electricity production Pmax whole country: Total installed capacity: 294 TWh 47607 MW 60611 MW In which: Hydropower 21295 (24.9%) 432 TWh 68440 MW 85411 MW ~ 17195MW (28.4%); Oil and gas TPPs: 16901 (19.8%) ~ 16151MW (26.6%); Coal TPPs: 35750 (41.9%) ~ 18350MW (30.3%); Renewable power 2267 ( 2.7% ) ~ Imported: ~ 1717MW ( 2.8%); 5198MW ( 8.6%) 5198 ( 6.1%) Nuclear power: 4000 (4.7%) N§ than 30.2% NhËp khÈu 8.6% NL t¸ i t¹ o DiÖn h¹ t nh©n 3% 3.3% ~ 2000MW ( 3.3%) N§ than 41.8% NhËp khÈu 6.1% NL t¸ i t¹ o DiÖn h¹ t nh©n 3% 4.7% Reserve margin in peak Month 20.0% In 2016 – 2020 average 3650MW per year needs to be constructed In 2021 – 2025 average 4950MW per year needs to be constructed KhÝ& dÇu 26.8% Thuû ®iÖn 28.3% 14.4% KhÝ& dÇu 19.9% Thuû ®iÖn 24.9% 90000 80000 70000 60000 MW Import NhËp khÈu Nuclear § iÖn h¹ t PP nh©n Thuû ® iÖn nhá+®iÖn NL t¸ I t¹ o Small HPPs NhiÖt ®iÖ n khÝ+dÇu Gas/Oil PPs NhiÖtTPPs ®iÖn than Coal Thuû ® iÖn vµ T§ tÝch n¨ ng HPP&PSPP Pmax Peak 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 In 2007-:-2010, 6 HPPs, 8 coal TPPs and 600MW imported from China (220 kV and 110 kV) Coal TPPs: Son Dong, Mao Khe, Cam Pha I&II, Hai Phong I&II, Uong Bi Ex, Ninh Binh Ex. Quang Ninh I, unit 1 of Vung Ang I HPPs: Tuyen Quang, Ban Ve, Cua Dat, unit #1 of Son La, Na Le After 2010: Quang Ninh II coal TPP: 2011; Nghi Son I: 2011; Nghi Son II: 2012-2014 Mong Duong II coal TPP: 2011-2012; Mong Duong I: 2011-2012; Vung Ang I coal TPP (unit 2): 2011; Vung Ang II: 2013, 6x600MW and 4x1000MW of new coal TPPs: after 2020 Son La HPP 2400MW: 2010-2012, HPPs of Nam Chien, Ban Chat, Khe Bo: 2011 HPPs of Huoi Quang, : 2012-2013 HPP of Lai Chau 1200MW, Hua Na, Trung Son, Nho Que3: : 2013-2015 PSHPP 5x300MW: 2019 -2025 Imported: Nam Mo HPP (Laos): 2012 Imported through China 500kV, 2017-2019: 1500MW Nam Theun HPP or Nam U (Lao PDR): 2019 In 2007 – 2010: 15 HPPS, about 200MW of small HPPs will be in operation, total capacity of ~2500MW After 2010: HPP Song Bung 4, Dak My 4 : 2012, HPP Thuong Kon Tum, Song Bung 2, Vinh Son II: 2014 HPP Song Bung 5, Dak My 1: 2014 Gas TPP 4x750MW: from 2018 Coal TPP 600MW: 3 units in 2016-2020 (high case: 6x600MW: 2013-2020) Imported from Regional HPPs: Se Kaman 3: 2010-2011; Se Kaman 1: 2013; HPPs in South of Lao: 2013-2016: ~ 1000MW Lower Se San 3 HPP (Cambodia) => 2007 – 2010: 6 HPPs (Dai Ninh, Dong Nai 3&4, Dak Tih, Bak Binh, DamBri); 5 gas TPPs (Ca Mau I&II, Nhon Trach I&II, O Mon I) are anticipated to be constructed, adding capacity of ~3300MW after 2010: CCGTs of O Mon II: 2012 New GTCC: 8 x 750MW: 2014 – 2020 Coal-fired TPPs in the South: 2011-2015: ~ 20 x 600MW; considered sites of TPPs: Binh Thuan, Khanh Hoa, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang, Kien Giang… 10x1000MW of new coal TPPs (after 2016) NPP- 4x1000MW- units 1st: 2020 HPPs of Dong Nai 2, 5 (2012-2013); PSHPP with 10 - 11 units 300MW: in 2018 – 2025 Imported: From HPP of Lower Se San 2: after 2015 (Cambodia) 1. Power 220-500kV transmission network development is aimed to increase reliability, flexibility, safety, stable electricity supply, especially for the important economic areas in the South and the North • HCMCT - Dong Nai - Binh Duong - Ba Ria Vung Tau; • Hanoi - Hai Duong - Bac Ninh - Hai Phong - Quang Ninh; • Economic development axial of Da Nang - Chu Lai Dung Quat and EPZs, IZs. 2. Development of 220-500kV transmission network for connection of power plants into the national power grids and safe, stable operation. 3. Development of 110kV transmission network, completion of area power systems in order to increase reliability of electricity supply, reducing electricity loss, facilitating conditions for changing medium voltage network to 22kV network and rural electrification. Balancing power supply and demand by area Lines: Power lines are constructed with criteria (N-1). Power networks of HCM city and Hanoi will be connected by the loop double 500kV lines. The phase disaggregated conductors 4x330 (410)mm2 will be used 500kV sunbstations: - Ho Chi Minh city, Hanoi: 2x600MVA, 2x900MVA, 2x1200MVA. - Othere areas: 2x450MVA, 2x600MVA, 2x900MVA. - Expansion of existing 500kV substations The whole country power system consists of 3 regional power systems: - Northern power system: including northern provinces from Ha Tinh to the North - Central power system: including central provinces from Quang Binh to Khanh Hoa and four provinces in Highlands: Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dac Lac, Dac Nong - Southern power system: including southern provinces and provinces of Binh Thuan, Ninh Thuan, Lam Dong. CHINA Lai Chau Viet Tri Son La Thac Ba Soc Son PhLaiUong Bi Chem Quang Ninh Ha Dong Mai aDong HOA BINH Hai Phong Thuong Tin Din NhohQuan Ninh Binh Thanh Hoa LAOS NORTHERN REGION Vinh Ha Tinh THAILAN GHI CHU D 500kV: 500kV line (- 2020) 500kV: 500kV line (- 2010) 500kV: Existing 500kV line 220kV: Existing 220kV line 500kV substation(- 2020) 500kV substation(- 2010) Existing 500kV substation Existing 220kV substation Existing HPP Existing TPP Dong Hoi CENTRAL REGION Quang Tri Da Nang Doc Soi Ban Sok Yaly Vinh Son Plei Ku Quy Nhon Sam Bor CAMBODIA Krong Buk SongHinh Nha Trang D.Nai3&4Di Linh Da Nhim Tan Dinh Thac Mo Tri An Bao Loc Dien Nguyen tu Song May Nhon Trach Phu My Nha Be Hoc Mon Phu Lam O Cai Lay Mon Rach Gia TrNoc a B Ria a SOUTHERN REGION Item Unit 500kV substations 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sub./MVA 10/6150 20/11850 25/21900 41/39150 49/54900 km 3249 4823 6661 9210 12170 MVA 615 624 876 955 1120 500kV lines Capacity / substation Item Volume Unit Volume 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sub./MVA 60/15068 120/32318 165/57191 233/90066 271/126127 220kV lines km 5272 11484 15138 17442 19033 Capacity/ substation MVA 260 273 347 387 465 220kV substations Item Unit Volume 2005 2010 2015 110kV substations subs./MVA 530/21097 854/41270 1076/65700 110kV power lines km 10290 19188 22949 Period 2006-2010: 100% of commune centers & 95% of rural households are accessed to local power grid, in which 90% of rural households in the North and Highland Period 2011-2015: 98% of rural households are accessed to local or national power grids Region 2006-2010 2011-2015 2006-2015 1 North 5,210 4,898 10,107 2 Center 1,297 524 1,822 3 South 3,742 1,761 5,502 10,249 7,183 17,431 Total Supply from national power grid: VND 17,431 billions Local investment in development of off-grid renewable power: VND 4.7 billions Mobilizing all resources for development of infrastructure, priority investment capital and finance is given to rural electricity developers, encouraging investment in renewable energy (wind, small hydro, solar, biomass power,...) State public support mechanism: for remote and mountainous areas, support from the state will be 85% of investment cost, EVN will arrange the remainder of 15% Managing rural electricity business in compliance with the enterprise law, cooperative law and ensuring covering cost and reasonable benefits for maintaining business. 2005 - Hongha–Laocai, Vanson-Hagiang - 110kV - DongHung-MongCai - 110kV - Van Son-Lao Cai: 220kV (2007) - Van Nam-Hiep Hoa: 500kV (2015 - 2020) -Sekaman 3 HPP (250MW): 2010 2011 -HPPs of Se Kaman 1, Se Kong 4 &5, Nam Kong -500kV line of Pleiku – Ban Sok: 180km - Total~1,700 - 2300MW - Chau Doc–Phnom Penh: 230kV, 2008 - HPPs of Ha Se San 1, 2 and 3 Policy and mechanism for development and management integrating economy-energy-environment ensuring consistency between power development plan with local socioeconomic development plan and land use plan, reasonable land allocated for power project development. Training environment protectors in power sectors; development of environmental pollution monitoring and controlling system for periodical inspection. Thermal power plants: Using advanced, high efficient technologiess; increasing unit size Installation of precipitation equipment, de-SOx, application circulating Fluidized boiler technology (CFB)=> reducing NOx; Using ashes as construction materials, Application of improvement of combustion chamber; application of coal gasification technology Plan for stoping operation of old power plants Hydropower and renewable energy: Resolving social issues of resettlement, calculation of resettlement costs, reseasonable options for ensuring living standards and jobs for resettled people in new residence areas. Coordinating in regulation of water reservoirs in cascade HPPs. Application of PSHPP technology for increasing efficiency of water resource, effective operation of HPPs and TPPs combination in order to flatten the load shapes. Encouraging development of renewable energies (wind, solar, biomass power,…) Power network: using multi-circuit towers: many voltage levels on one power line; using compact towers in urban areas in order to reduce safety corridor and occupiedland; using thermal-resistant conductors; compact substations, GIS substations in urban areas conducting measures for increasing safety, health protection, environmental quality, avoiding effects of electromagnetic fields on human and environment. Total investment cost including IDC for the whole period: VND1,262,980 billions (included power telecommunication part) - Total investment for power generation: VND 821,790 billion (USD 52 bill.); In which: + investment of power plants: TPPs: VND 591,673 bill. HPPS: VND 230,117 bill. + IDC: VND 70,787 bill. (of which for 2006-2010: VND 206,320 bill., 2011-2015: VND 214.892 bill.) - Total investment for power : VND 441.189 bill. (of which for 2006-2010: VND 96.752 bill., 2011-2015: VND 158.058 bill.) + Transmission network (220 kV and above): VND 167,475 bill. + Distribution and LV network: VND 273,714 bill. + IDC: VND 41.187 bill. Financing resources Own finance of EVN: depreciation fund, development and investment fund, shares, equitization and selling of shares of some power plants. State budget: mainly for compensation for resettlement regarding to son La HPP ODA loans according to signed agreements, Foreign commercial loans, Preferential credits, Domestic commercial loans, Bonds 2006-:-2015: EVN has committed on loans of VND 143,415 billion in total VND 643,542 billions Annual average net investment cost for the whole power sector Period 2006-2010: VND 60,600 bill./year, equivalent to 3.83 bill. USD/year Period 2011-2015: VND 66,600 bill./year, equivalent to 4.21 bill. USD/year Period 2016-2020: VND 66,300 bill./year, equivalent to 4.20 bill. USD/year Period 2021-2025: VND 59,000 bill./year, equivalent to 373 bill. USD/year Average for period 2006-2025: VND 63,100 bill./year, equivalent to 3.99 billi. USD/year Structure of investment capital of the power sector No. 1 2 20062010 2011-2015 20162020 2021-2025 20062025 Power plants - TPPs - HPPs 68.1% 33.6% 34.5% 64.5% 49.5% 15.0% 64.3% 51.5% 12.7% 63.5% 52.2% 11.3% 65% 46.8% 18.2% Power network Power transmission network - 500kV power lines - 500kV substations - 220kV power lines - 220kV substations Distribution and LV Total 31.9% 35.5% 35.7% 36.5% 35% 13.9% 4.3% 1.6% 4.0% 4.0% 18.0% 100% 12.9% 3.9% 1.8% 2.4% 4.8% 22.5% 100% 14.1% 4.6% 2.7% 1.3% 5.5% 21.6% 100% 12.0% 3.5% 2.3% 0.9% 5.2% 24.5% 100% 13.3% 4.1% 2.1% 2.2% 4.9% 21.7% 100% Item FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN IN PERIOD 2006-2025 Assessment of annual financial status for the whole power sector and its components Assessment of financial balance feasibility Analysis of investment capital mobilization options Alternatives on electricity prices Unit:$Cent/kWh (excluded VAT) Electricity price 1: according to the approved roadmap Electricity price 2: according to the calculated long run marginal costs 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 Electricity price 1 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.36 6.36 Electricity price 2 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.36 7.5 To 2015 Long run marginal cost-LRMC 1. At busbar of power plant 2. At busbar of 220 kV substation 3. At busbar of 110 kV substation. 4. At medium voltages 5. At low voltages Average Average cost $ c/kWh 4.6 5.3 5.8 6.8 8.3 7.5 Average cost $/KW.year 260 310 337 398 482 438 To 2025 Average cost $ c/kWh 4.8 5.5 5.9 6.8 8.3 7.4 Average cost $/KW.year 275 325 349 403 490 442 Analysis alternatives Financial alternative Alternative 1: EVN is the main owner of power generation projects from now to 2025, except IPP, BOT projects with PPAs already signed or to be signed or joint stock and equatized projects according to plan. Alternative 2: EVN plays the role of buyer in accordance to the power sector reform, assumed over the planed period, in which EVN will invest in and manage some important power plants with loans, the remained power plants will belonged to independent power generating companies outside EVN. Electricity price 1 Electricity price 2 ALT. I-I ALT. I-II ALT.II-II Financial structure of Power Sector in Alternative II PARENT COMPANY – ELECTRICITY OG VIETNAM EVN (WHOLE-SALE BUYER) MULTIPURPOSE PPs, EVN IS OWNER DISTRIBUTION TRANSMISSION ONE-MEMBER COM. LMD. POWER GENERATION POWER GENERATION JSCs (equitized) Parent com. > 50% of capital EQUITIZED POWER GENERATING COM. # REGIONAL ELECTRICITY ONE-MEMBER COM. LMD. IPP BOT ONE-MEMBER COM. LMD. Parent company accounts for 100% capital EQUITIZED POWER COMPANIES Parent com. < 50% capital ROADMAP FOR ELECTRICITY MARKET DEVELOPMENT Phase 3: Retail competition market Phase 2: Wholesale market Phase 1: Single Buyer market 2024 Retail competition market 2022 Experimental Period 2016 Experimental Period Single Buyer Market Internal Market 2014 Wholesale Market 2009 2005 1. The power demand forecast was made for the period 2006 – 2010 considered conditions and policies to attract investment capital from domestic and foreign resources. The demand forecast may not take into account all factors of rapid developing economy and integration. The power demand forecast were for base case, and high case, which shall be upgraded, reviews annually and report to the Government for adjusting plan. 2. In order to reduce risk of short term electricity shortage and long term investment, measures for encouraging electricity saving, DSM programs need to be applied. Schedules of power plants in the period 2006 – 2010 in the base case were calculated with reserve when power demand increases higher than normal and if some power plants are delayed; The power generation program is more difficult when power system is large, therefore, it requires close control of preparation and implementation process in order to avoid delay as approved in the Plan. MP VI strictly followed the contents of “Strategy of power development” which was approved and the draft “National energy Strategy” which is being submitted to the Government for approval. Regarding arrangement of power plants in 3 regions, it need to make planning of sites for new power centers of ~6000MW coal TPPs in the North; ~2400MW of coal TPPs in the Central; ~5000MW of coal TPPs in the South and over 2000MW gas TPPs in the South. 3. 4. 5. In order to reach rate of 3-4% electricity from renewable power plants, it needs to have mechanisms on price subsidy, procedures and encouraging development of small hydropower projects, wind power projects, biomass and geothermal power projects,.. However, it needs to monitor investment process in order to avoid the low efficient projects. 6. 7. 8. 9. With relatively big volume of lines and substations to be constructed, apart from application of new technology (such as many circuit on one line, many voltage levels, compact tower, GIS substation,..) it needs the local support in consensus of line routes and arrangement of land for substations in order to avoid overlapped planning and reduce socio-environmental impacts. Promoting cooperation on preparation of construction investment hydropower projects in Laos and Cambodia and interconnection with Chinese 220-500kV power system. Power network investment program is about 4 billion USD/year, will meet many difficulties. It is recommended that the Government to give priority for using OCR, ODA resources,.. Encouraging diversification of power generation project owners, mobilizing finance from such resources as bond, equitization, foreign BOT power projects at reasonable rate. In order to ensure financial balance for the whole power sector, encouraging investors in development of electricity market, electricity conservation and efficiency, it is recommended that the Government permit to increase electricity tariffs according to the roadmap to 7 US cent/kWh in 2010 and 7.5 US cent/kWh in 2015